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Prospect speed, meet prospect D

Defense is the easiest skill to scout in baseball.

Some players may dive, hustle and (grinder?) to win fans. But we know the good from the bad. And the pool of defensive data continues to expand.

Gone are the days of free agents without defensive value cashing in. Gone? Gone are the days of all bat, no D guys winning glove honors thanks to name recognition and clutch plays. Gone?

We know why teams didn’t shower you with offers last year Adam Dunn. And we knew that your premium defense would compensate for your raw bat Tim Beckham. Oh…wait.

Defense is the easiest hardest skill to scout in baseball.

It’s true. Even the untrained eye can occasionally recognize and appreciate good defense. But there are some substantial hurdles:

1. You need to see a guy for a series or two in order to get a good read on his defense.

2. Range can be lost over night as metabolisms slow and bodies grow.

I saw dozens of prospects multiple times this year. Even if I diligently arrived to the park early to watch infield and was 100-percent focused on the game, I didn’t always get a good read on a guy.

How can we learn more about minor league and amateur defense?

Watch thousands of games. Shape ourselves into an internet community scouting department…keep it simple. Unite.

Hands above replacement hands isn’t easy to quantify. Arm strength is translucent; accuracy isn’t. How about range?

I feel comfortable with the assumption that speed on the base paths gives a good indication of speed on defense. Yes, you can step into a shower of variables. But let’s keep it simple.

How many below-average runners can handle positions that require well-above-average range? The list is short.

Can we take good speed data and use it to open up some defensive debates? I think so.

Based on a speed information gathering effort Project Prospect took on at the Arizona Fall League, I have some comments to share:

Plus speed

Hector Gomez is the fastest player I’ve seen this season. He may be an 80 runner. And he undoubtedly has the speed to be an elite up-the-middle defender.

Dustin Ackley knows he’s in an organization that’s already rich in elite defensive outfielders. He has the speed to play center, though. He's clearly a plus runner (65-75).

Jose Tabata may be a 70 runner. While he’s built a little more like a rhinoceros than a gazelle, don’t write him off as a guy who’ll certainly be too slow to provide much defensive value.

Average speed

Grant Desme has average to slightly-above-average speed – a 55 runner when I saw him at the AFL. Could he be more than an adequate MLB center fielder?

Danny Espinosa would lose a foot race to all four of the players above. He’s an average runner – maybe slightly below (45-50). He needs to compensate for his relative lack of speed with other skills – fortunately he has an outstanding arm.

Ryan Kalish is a fringe-average runner (45). On a defensively minded team, he’s probably a corner outfielder.

Below-average speed

Carlos Triunfel was a below-average runner at the 2009 Arizona Fall League. Keep in mind that he was returning from a fractured tibia – he may not have been back to full speed – but he’s probably not an up-the-middle defender.

Starlin Castro is already a below-average runner, according to my data. And I know there are knowledgeable people who disagree with me, but I see his thighs growing over the next few years and him slowing down. Even a good arm, great instincts and the softest of soft hands wouldn’t be enough to allow a well-below-average runner to play an up-the-middle position.

Carlos Rivero is a well-below-average runner. He should not play shortstop.

 

I'm happy to provide additional info and would love to discuss the players above - Adam Foster

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Comments

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“How many below-average runners can handle positions that require well-above-average range? The list is short.”

Isn’t Matt Dominguez a below average runner?

by jar75 on Dec 17, 2025 7:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That's what I've read

But third base doesn’t require above-average speed.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 8:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There are a few tall players who have been able to do it

Cal Ripken was never a plus runner. Reid Brignac is reportedly a good defender but doesn’t have much footspeed. But it’s still a serious impediment generally. If you’re slow and don’t have great ‘push off’ range, you’re pretty much screwed.

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by Brickhaus on Dec 18, 2025 12:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I still don't get how Ripken did it

Career SB: 36
Career CS: 39
Career leader in GIDP

Yet for most of his career, he was only a couple runs worse than Ozzie at SS, according to the defensive metrics.

by dkdc on Dec 19, 2025 3:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Phenomenal positioning, great instincts and great reaction time

Plus a great arm.

Most people point to the positioning. He was always in the right place before the ball was hit there. I know that sounds almost like an intangibles/clutch BS argument - its not. Its a legit skill that is very hard to quantify or measure. He was perhaps the best at it.

by alskor on Dec 19, 2025 10:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Even the untrained eye can recognize and appreciate good defense.

I dont think I agree with this. Look at Jeter. Untrained eyes focus on lack of errors instead of range.

You need to see a guy for a series or two in order to get a good read on his defense.

Im don’t think even a series or two is really enough to draw any conclusions. For instance, you seem to be making a lot observations about how guys ran in the AFL (ie Tyson Gillies on Twitter). Everyone else is hearing he’s faster than you’re reporting. As you made note of, guys are often tired in the AFL and the conditions arent ideal. I think its dangerous to try to draw conclusions from such limited data. There is also some reason to believe that players often suffer from defensive slumps - as much as they slump at the plate, and that can certainly skew our perceptions if we only view a few games. Speed is even more variable, as even the most minor of injuries can affect both baserunning speed and speed in the field (thus having a big effect on defense). These are both contributing reasons why it is recommended that a 3 yr sample is used with UZR.

Im really interested to see what HitFX tells us about defense. That could quickly make obsolete many of the ways we look at defense now.

by alskor on Dec 17, 2025 7:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not while watching the game. I would be looking for what plays he makes and what plays he should make.

by joegonzo on Dec 17, 2025 8:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Its very hard to tell what plays a guy should make with your eyes

Guys almost always look like theyre going full speed. If you’re not a pro scout you arent really focused on what kind of jump he got and whether an average player at that position makes that play. Ive seen lots of slow OFer that looked like they were hustling and the ball drops just in front of them - your mind immediately moves on since he couldnt make the play. It is exceptionally hard to tell with your eyes and the average fan only notices the extremes.

by alskor on Dec 17, 2025 8:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I read somewhere that the ration of sample size between hitting and fielding is something like 1:3

I don’t remember where, but it was in the context of 1 season of hitting sample size being equivalent to 3 of fielding. If that is the case, then how can one or two series be sufficient? That’s like watching a hitter for one game.

by JayWise on Dec 18, 2025 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, I agree, Jay.

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by Frederick0220 on Dec 18, 2025 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dont get me wrong

Ive looked a number of times at the AFL times you posted. Its a very valuable resource. Here is the link for those who haven’t seen it: http://projectprospect.com/article/2009/12/08/afl-speed-data

What we need is more of that IMHO.

In the meantime, I do think its important to not frame things we learn from stuff like this as definites. That is to say, if we have a time on Starlin Castro not running well a few times in the AFL - Im not ready to say he has below average speed in general. I think we need to just take it as a data point. “Castro didn’t run well in Arizona.”

by alskor on Dec 17, 2025 8:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Re Jeter: Many professional “analysts” continue to put a lot of weight into errors when they should know better. I guess I have a higher standard for the eyes around here than the error fanatics.

Re Gillies: He didn’t play in the AFL. I said I saw him as a 65-70 runner in 2009 and that I thought his hustle made him look faster than he is. My comment wasn’t about discrediting his defense or drawing conclusions…just bringing information to the table.

You really think speed will vary drastically? Injuries can slow guys down. But how many guys are playing hurt and hustling out grounders? One of the reasons we didn’t have larger samples of speed data on AFL guys is because I filtered out plays where the runner didn’t hustle.

My goal is to find ways to educate ourselves on minor league defense. I realize that there are tools that are far more valuable in the majors than some of the ones we use in the minors.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 8:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

On speed

Will Carroll discusses this in his team injury reports on BP every year. Players who have great speed or have a good amount of their value tied up in speed always come up as higher risk than many expect on his reports. For instance, Carl Crawford, Ellsbury, Figgins… Carroll’s explanation is that even seemingly minor injuries sap speed to a significant degree both in the field and on the basepaths. It makes sense to me.

by alskor on Dec 17, 2025 8:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Stalin Castro doesn't need to run

He can just send his political enemies to forced-labor camps.

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 17, 2025 7:57 PM EST reply actions   3 recs

Doh!

I’ve made that typo multiple times. Let me go fix it now.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 8:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Question

If defense is the easiest thing to scout.. how come there are several defensive metrics each that tell a different story ordinally.

If that’s the case then either the metrics are all shite… OR… Defense is more than just speed/range. Just a comment more than a question..

by 2883 on Dec 17, 2025 8:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well defense is clearly far more than just speed and range

Can batting be simplified to the amount of force a batter swings with or his bat speed…?

by alskor on Dec 17, 2025 8:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The post seems a bit simplistic

It’s an attempt to argue that even a dunce can know good D when he or she sees it, but my argument is that it’s more than just a simple discussion of speed. For instance, Ripken Jr. was horrifically slow; however, was an adequate (or better) SS for many years defensively…

by 2883 on Dec 17, 2025 8:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Defense and defensive stats

Some defensive stats are absolutely terrible to use. Others are quite good. Given the chances we see in a season, just like in hitting, luck is involved (BABIP for hitters can play with things, just like having an inordinate amount of balls hit right at you in a given season can play with things for a fielders numbers) and we need to look at a larger scale. Most positions don’t see 350 chances in a single season, so ideally to see a players true talent level, you need to look at probably a 2-3 year sample. However for a given season we can determine ones value, regardless of luck. If a hitter hits .310/.390/.500 in a season where he has a .385 BABIP, he still hit that. He isn’t likely to ever do it again and its not his true skill level, but for that season, he did do it.

Now as far as defense goes, it is indeed far more than speed/range. A guy like Chase Utley doesn’t have the best range ever (its not bad, but its not great), but he positions himself better than anyone else and in turn makes him the best defensive second baseman in baseball (seriously, someone give him a gold glove already). On the flip side, Willy Taveras may be the fastest guy in baseball, but he can’t read the ball off the bat to save his life so he is merely a slightly above average defender whose speed makes up for his terrible ability to get a good jump on the ball.

Positioning goes a long way, speed can make up for mistakes (especially in the outfield), guys who can react correctly to the ball off the bat get an advantage over those who can’t and how strong a guys arm is allows him some leeway that other guys may not get. Then of course is just the pure speed a guy has (at some positions it matters a lot more than others), how explosive the first few steps are and of course the ability to get the ball in the glove, which some guys are just better at doing.

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2025 4:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There aren’t any minor league defensive metrics that provide information that compares to what you can gather in person or with video.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 9:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How's that true..

about anything else to be honest

by 2883 on Dec 17, 2025 9:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not*

How is that not true about all things? Metrics are models… all models are false… but some are useful. Scouting gives you additional or different info than a metric does. My point is, speed is not everything when it comes to D.

by 2883 on Dec 17, 2025 9:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

Speed isn’t everything on defense. But guys who don’t have much of it are at a disadvantage, particularly if they’re up-the-middle defenders.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 9:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

up the middle defenders are traditionally quicker

but it’s more than just speed… Instincts… positioning arm strength/accuracy.. There all of these are as important or more than speed when it comes to defending the position. I just disagree with your assessment of speed/D. It’s not a huge surprise as I disagree with some of the rankings on your site, but all in all I think you do a great job.

by 2883 on Dec 17, 2025 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 9:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting comment on Castro

I saw him play this year … I don’t think I would call him below-average speed (I know that’s not the word you used). He certainly, visually, was faster than several of his teammates that are thought of as having average speed. I know Jason Churchill has said Castro was a 70 speed … which I don’t really buy, but it seems like you are putting him, well, below a 45.

Now, could he grow and lose speed? Sure.

Now, you specifically note below average runner, which I buy. He isn’t the best baserunner, and he still has footwork issues to figure out defensively, despite his tools.

by toonsterwu on Dec 17, 2025 9:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

also interesting that you said good arm

when most people have said he has a great arm, in terms of arm strength. That said, I do worry a tiny bit about the sidearming.

by toonsterwu on Dec 17, 2025 9:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't mean to say that Castro has a good arm

I was speaking hypothetically with my last sentence on him.

The two home two first times that I got on Starlin Castro at the AFL were: 4.5 and 4.4.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 17, 2025 9:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe it

He’s just not a good baserunner for some reason. I admittedly haven’t looked at it in depth, or pondered it deeply. I know someone who has suggested that, out of the box, his problem had something to do with the fact that it takes him a second to go from hitting to running due to his swing staying level, or something like that. I’ll admit I’m not the best person to explain anything. Furthermore, that doesn’t explain his overall average baserunning, and it is also a critique of his base running instincts.

Is he going to be able to stick at short? Only time will tell. There’s footwork issues, but I think he has solid enough lateral movement to stick, provided he is accurate. I’m not sure how you are judging lateral movement, so I’d be curious on that. There’s a chance he might go to 2nd, and there’s a chance Hak-ju Lee could force him there (doesn’t have Castro’s arm but probably has better defensive potential).

I just have a hard time, after seeing him, thinking that he has poor natural speed.

by toonsterwu on Dec 17, 2025 9:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Starlin Castro

Well, he’s also only 19. The raw speed might be better than the game speed at this point, though he could also slow down a bit as he ages. When I saw him he didn’t seem all that fast though either, and I did think he might end up at 3B or 2B. So I do doubt he’s a 70 runner, but he’s probably more like a 55.

But overall tools & athleticism might be similar to a guy like Orlando Hudson. I think he’d probably end up a bit below average at SS, but if he does move to 3B or 2B might be an above average defender. And while he might slow down some as he fills out, I expect him to develop some pop as well. I think the bat will end up playing at 3B or 2B.

Given how polished the bat is now though, he’s just a pretty good bet overall to be a solid big league regular of some sort. I don’t exactly see star potential, but it’s maybe too soon to say for sure there.

by acerimusdux on Dec 18, 2025 6:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

well yes

I’d agree he will stick at short.

I know J.J. Hardy is one of the games better defensive short-stops in all the league today
and he isn’t exactly fast or quick by any means…

Rene Tosoni is good.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 19, 2025 6:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That

stopwatch needs a little WD 40 on it. Some players get out of the box very slow because of the swings they take. I’ve heard of 4.15 to 4.25 for best times on Castro, I could also believe that he’s had times of 4.4, but I would bet thats because of his speed. I also believe his times could improve as his legs get stronger also. To say he’s got well below avg speed is absurd in my opinion. Well below speed or less is like comparing him to Brett Wallace or Jack Cust!! Starlin is a pretty good baserunner, especially from 1st to 3rd and scoring from 2nd on a hit. He was also 28 for 39 in steals for the season which is decent and can be improved upon. Even if he thickens up the worst he’s going to be is a usable below avg runner on the bases

by Slamdog on Dec 20, 2025 8:22 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting

i like it. Simple and logical

by jarjets89 on Dec 17, 2025 9:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This is where you lost me entirely
It’s true. Even the untrained eye can recognize and appreciate good defense. But there are some substantial hurdles:

1. You need to see a guy for a series or two in order to get a good read on his defense.

Bullshit. Ever hear of small sample size? I know you have, because I read your site. How about cognitive bias? The overwhelming evidence that eyewitness accounts are unreliable and how our biases ensure that we rarely see what we think we saw.

What we know about the untrained eye and its opinions about player defense bear this out. Baseball is still dominated by those who overappreciate the barely made play while underappreciating the player who makes the same play with routine ease. Adam Jones’ gold glove is another example - Jones was at the top of the league in home run saving catches and runners thrown out, and poor defensively in more fundamental aspects like positioning. But one type of play is more memorable, and affects how witnesses perceive his defense on other plays as well.

All your conclusions may well be right - players with below-average speed may not be able to play positions demanding high range, and your speed scores may be accurate. But your methodology, at least your explanation of it, is totally non-persuasive to me.

by James F on Dec 18, 2025 12:59 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

i feel like he meant

a couple of series vs. one game

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by flipgatey3 on Dec 19, 2025 5:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Untrained eye

My thinking with this statement was about going back to the contest the Cardinals did a few years ago. Anyone could submit defensive scouting reports on D-II and D-III (I think) players. If the team selected a player who you submitted info on, you got World Series tickets — that’s what I remember, at least.

Maybe unstrained eye is an understatement. But I remember covering college baseball games and sitting with casual fans who knew as much about the team as I did. There are a lot of very knowledgeable fans out there. I was using untrained eye as a substitute for non-professional. I have confidence in defensive scouting reports from fans.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 18, 2025 3:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good Stuff Adam

Always important to link speed and defense; especially up the middle. Prospect speed SHOULD help project defensive ability, but it’s very difficult to judge on the infield. Straight line speed is completely different than lateral movement and one often has to take liberties in linking the two based on agility.

Additionally, are the great catches one sees at a game because of speed, or in spite of speed? Anthony Gose of the Phillies can run balls down from gap-to-gap with the best of them, but a diving catch at first base by step-and-a-dive Red Sox prospect Michael Almanzar can look just as impressive on the surface.

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by ScoutingTheSally on Dec 18, 2025 7:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yep, it's not always easy to recognize good defense

And you know well that even experienced scouts can’t watch every inch of the field every second of the game. Sometimes the guys who don’t draw much attention to themselves are the among the most valuable defenders.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 19, 2025 1:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just an example...

Jim Edmonds was never above average in speed but was an elite fielder based on instincts, positioning, and taking correct angles. Speed is important but it doesn’t always translate with defense.

by Havok1517 on Dec 18, 2025 8:40 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Defense is the easiest skill to scout in baseball."

I stopped there because that is the dumbest thing I have read in a long time.

by aCone419 on Dec 18, 2025 10:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

I was going to be nicer than this, but I stopped reading because I think the premise is 100% wrong.

Bat speed, running speed, plate patience, arm (which is part of defense, but I think here “defense” refers to range/catching the ball). Pretty much, EVERYTHING is easier to scout than defense.

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by thejd44 on Dec 18, 2025 11:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's clear that you stopped reading there

Because a few sentences later he revealed that he actually didn’t believe that statement, and replaced it by saying, “Defense is the hardest skill to scout in baseball.”

If you’re going to criticize a guy, read the whole post.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Dec 19, 2025 12:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, so then he doesn't have a bad idea, but poor writing/argumentative skills

I didn’t realize he was setting up a straw man. My mistake.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Dec 19, 2025 10:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously?

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 19, 2025 2:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

welcome to the internet

Did you know that 98% of all black men enjoy sex in the shower?????????????? probably because the other 2 percent haven't been to Jail yet

by variablesdont on Dec 19, 2025 7:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I got a question for you Adam

You did you’re top 15 catching rankings 18 days ago or so…. at PP.

Since this thread is about defense no more or no less.

Wouldn’t C Wilson Ramos’ defensive greatness alone get him close to the top 15 catching prospects on you’re list?
Plus his bat is better than Lou Marson just off the top of my head.
Did Ramos rank 16th?

Rene Tosoni is good.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 19, 2025 6:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ramos was an HM for me

He has hit very well in the Venezuelan league — .996 OPS through 220 PA. And he has a 9.5% walk rate. Ramos could be in line for a breakout season.

I think there’s a ton of talent at catcher in the minors right now. It was hard to leave Robert Stock and Ramos off that list.

AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder

by Adam Foster on Dec 20, 2025 3:54 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


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