Weekend Discussion Question: New York? New York?
The top ten prospects in the Mets system, according to Baseball America: Fernando Martinez (Grade B+ from me), Wilmer Flores (B+), Jon Niese (B), Brad Holt (B), Bobby Parnell (C+), Jefry Marte (C+), Jenrry Mejia (C+), Reese Havens (B), Nick Evans (C+), Eddie Kunz (C+). Using this grading scale (Grade A=4.00; Grade A-=3.75; Grade B+=3.50; Grade B=3.25; Grade B-=3.00; Grade C+=2.75), we get an average grade of 3.05.
The top ten prospects in the Yankees system, according to Baseball America: Austin Jackson (B), Jesus Montero (B+), Andrew Brackman (C+), Austin Romine (B-), Dellin Betances (B-), Zach McAllister (B-), Alfredo Aceves (C+), Phil Coke (C+), Mark Melancon (B-), Brad Suttle (C+). I gave Jairo Heredia a B- but he ranks at 12 on the Baseball America list. If we replace Suttle's C+ with Heredia's B-, we get an average grade of 3.00, just slightly below the Mets.
Which Top Ten would you rather have? The Mets Top Ten or the Yankees Top Ten? Just concentrate on the Top Tens, don't worry about the rest of the system. Fiddle with the numbers if you like (use mean, median, average or anything else you can come up with) or use non-numerical reasons if you prefer. But which top ten do you want?
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72 comments
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NYM vs NYY
It is amazing hot close their top 10’s are. You could almost do a coin flip or compare prospect to prospect. Top prospects are projectable outfielders that haven’t shown the numbers yet at AA. High upside infielder in A ball with position questions. A number of pitchers with great stuff but need work vs pitchers with great numbers/control who need to get better stuff….
All and all, I’ll give it to the Mets, assuming Flores ends up at third and Montero at 1st. But, honestly, that’s just the Mets homer in me making a choice. It could go either way.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 7, 2026 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I just have a hard time voting for the Yankees
They tend to get overhyped, while the Mets tend to get underhyped.
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's a tough call
Certainly, both teams have had prospects overhyped as well as underhyped. To single out one side of New York is difficult.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 7, 2026 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How many players have the Yankees acquired with top tier prospects?
And how many of those guys have panned out? Plus the Yankees never seem to have guys play well out of nowhere (like Melvin Mora or Daniel Murphy).
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily true
Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton, Mike Lowell, Jake Westbrook, Wily Mo Pena, D’Angelo Jimenez, Ted Lilly, Marcus Thames, Nick Johnson, Dioner Navarro, Damaso Marte, Ted Lilly, and Juan Rivera have all had useful major league careers (obviously to varying degrees) among prospects/young players they’ve traded in the past decade.
by jibs on Mar 7, 2026 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ancient history?
I don’t see how Melvin Mora or any of the Yankees guys listed are really relevant to a discussion of the teams’ current farm systems, considering that none of them have played for the Yanks in like 5 years.
by Fanon on Mar 7, 2026 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Past performance
Is indicative of future results. Farm systems that have been historically underrated will continue to be so unless corrected for. And the same goes with overrated systems.
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great List
Other than Navarro, that looks like the B-List all-stars.
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Prospects that turn into MLB regulars should generally be considered success stories
by jibs on Mar 7, 2026 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
That’s only “success” when it’s the floor for your top prospects. When that becomes the ceiling, it’s an issue.
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wrong
You mean like Wang and Cano? Two guys who weren’t on anyone’s radar and now are core young players on the Yankees?
by sabernar on Mar 7, 2026 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say Wang
and I’d say he was on people’s radars (he was offered in the Randy Johnson trade). And, just so you know, he was the 1 guy that i was referring to. Cano has a lot to prove after last season.
by JayWise on Mar 7, 2026 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
Melvin Mora career WARP3 (11 season ) 30.1
Robinson Cano career WARP3 (4 season) 21.1
(comparable reference)
Jose Reyes career WARP3 (6 season) 22.1
Cano has to prove wether he’s a consistent star or just a Carlos Baerga type player. but to compare him to Melvin Mora (who your using as the main reference) is silly, Melvin’s career is no where comparable to Cano, who’s 06/07 are both significantly better than Melvin’s best season.
Melvin Mora is a nice late boomer story (and he wasn’t even signed by the Mets originally aand had a career with less than 300 PA for them), Cano had a legitimately star start to his career and hit a big pit last year at age 25, Mora wasn’t even near the majors at that age.
As for the Mets being consistently underrated farm wise . 3 names
Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhousan, Bill Pulsipher
I’d agree that the Yankee’s generally get more hype (in general, that carry over to it’s system). but to say the Met’s system is consistently underrated is silly. underrated farm system would be those of smaller markets like Twins / Rockies . that have produced a lot of good to great players over the eyars without getting that much recongnition.
by RollingWave on Mar 8, 2026 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Santana trade
is not a feather in the “Mets prospects NOT overrated” hat either.
by DrunkIrish on Mar 8, 2026 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izzy
had a nice career as a closer but the other two okay
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by Pelferized on Mar 8, 2026 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
by okay
i mean i agree with what you are saying about them
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by Pelferized on Mar 8, 2026 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Three "Aces"
Those three weren’t “overrated” so much as injuries derailed their careers. Bryan Taylor wasn’t overrated. He was just a bust due to injuries.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 9, 2026 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For sure
There’s a big difference between a Yusmiero Petit and a Bill Pulsipher.
by Fanon on Mar 9, 2026 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Precisely.
Although Petit is looking like he might be a serviceable back of the rotation starter. He’s younger than I remember, to be honest.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 9, 2026 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey
Not a knock on Petit, but he wasn’t the second coming of El Sid either.
by Fanon on Mar 9, 2026 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sid
I was a big fan of El Sid and consider him a good #2-#3 starter. Petit falling to a #4-#5 type starter isn’t that huge of a “overvaluing”, so to speak.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 10, 2026 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is not a real tough call to me
I voted NYM, here is why:
Obviously I like Montero and Jackson, but after that I am not a guy to put much stock into Brackman.
I like Flores and Marte alot, and F. Mart is about the same to me as Montero is in terms of grading out. Then I will take Kunz, Holt, and Neise over all of the Yankees secondary guys.
by jsmall404 on Mar 7, 2026 5:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Personally...
I couldn’t decide. I like the top two from the Yankees a lot more than I like the top two from the Mets. But I like the bottom eight from the Mets more than the bottom eight from the Yanks.
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by Boxkutter on Mar 7, 2026 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That's essentially why I voted Yanks
although I’d give brackman a bit more credit than you seem to
by Locke000 on Mar 9, 2026 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither are great
I went with the Mets. I think Austin Jackson will be no better than a big league regular and dellin betances will end up in the pen. The rest of the pitchers for the Yanks don’t do much for me either. The only noteworthy one is Brackman, but he is yet to throw a pitch as a professional.
I do not like Martinez for the Mets either, and think he won’t be any better than Jackson. I do really like Flores and think he will rake. Niese is a little better than the rest of the Yankee pitchers and i think John underrates Jeffery Marte a bit as well
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by MJMars on Mar 7, 2026 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no better?
No better than a big league regular? How many CF prospect become even that? I’d be happy with a solid major leaguer out of Jackson, especially since the odds are he’s going to be a bust.
by sabernar on Mar 7, 2026 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But people are projecting him as an all-star or better
I still think he will be a bust, but enough people smarter than me have led me to believe i’m wrong
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by MJMars on Mar 7, 2026 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
grading system
not to be nitpicky, but arent grades usually equated to 4.00/3.67/3.33/3/etc. so A is 4.00, B is 3.00, and so on?
by TheBigOne on Mar 7, 2026 6:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Mets over Yankees
First, it is very close.
The Hardball Times had an article where they looked only at top 100 prospects, took a composite of the rankings by BA, BP, Law, and McKarney, and then ranked each system based on those. The Mets and Yankees ended up tied for 20th; but that’s based on just the top 2 guys for each (Flores & Martinez vs. Jackson & Montero).
Beyond that, I’d say:
Martinez, Flores = Jackson, Montero
Niese, Holt, Mejia = McAllister, Brackman, Betances
Havens = Romine
Parnell, Kunz < Coke, Melancon
Marte > Heredia
Evans > Aceves
The Yankees obviously have more pitching depth, but I prefer the Mets bats. For the top three groups, which I’ve labeled “=”, I’d still lean towards the Mets there, though that could be my own bias/familiarity. To go with the Yankees overall, I think you’d have to like their top three pitchers better than Niese, Holt, Mejia. I think Betances is the one who really has the upside to maybe argue that point. And I do think the Yankees do have a definite edge in Coke and Melancon as bullpen arms over Parnell and Kunz. But that’s not enough for me; I just like the remaining Mets bats much better than the remaining Yankees pitching depth.
by acerimusdux on Mar 7, 2026 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think the Mets pitching prospects are significantly more likely to contribute
So I went with them. The top hitting prospects are roughly a wash, and the Yankees’ pitching prospects have more upside, but until they manage to, well, pitch, I’m going with the Mets here
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by OldProspects on Mar 8, 2026 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yanks over Mets
And I’m a Mets fan.
I’m second guessing my decision now, but I voted Yankees because they seem to have a bit more in the way of sure-things, as Jackson and Montero have shown a bit more than the Mets comparable players have. Jackson has shown more at Double-A than Fernando, and Montero has more of a track record than Flores. I think the Mets’ system has a lot more upside, while the Yankees system has less of a chance to totally bust; I’m just skeptical because the write-up on the Mets system seems to be that it could break through every year, so I’m at the point that I want a system that’s producing. But they’re really, really even, with probably a slight edge to the Mets.
by Fanon on Mar 7, 2026 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
AA Fernando vs Jackson
They hate very similar stats in AA except for more steals on Jackson’s side. The major difference is Fernando is two years younger.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 8, 2026 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a pretty sizable difference
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by OldProspects on Mar 8, 2026 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Positional difference
Jackson looks to be an excellent defensive center fielder, and has shown some ability to stay healthy. The word on Fernando, since he was first signed, is that he probably isn’t a center fielder, even if Beltran weren’t part of the equation. The difference in necessary production between center field and left field is at least as significant as the two year age difference. Considering that he hasn’t discovered patience yet, Fernando is going to have to hit for a hell of a lot of power while keeping his average where it’s been in order to be a valuable major leaguer. Jackson can just keep hitting the way he has been. Add in the fact that F-Mart can’t stay on the field and I don’t think you can say that Fernando is much better, if any.
by Fanon on Mar 8, 2026 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Center and Left field is a big difference
but F-Mart is going to move to right field not left where he doesn’t have to mash as much
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by Pelferized on Mar 8, 2026 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't have to hit as much in right?
I think the two positions have been almost equal offensively the last few years. It just seems like left field is where the unathletic rakers get stashed but right field mashes just as much for the most part.
by Gina on Mar 9, 2026 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention as far as I know the mets have no plan to move him to right field
Their plan seems to be moving Murphy to first, even though his bat isn’t going to play there, and have a light hitting first basemen and left fielder.
by Gina on Mar 9, 2026 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
I’ve been hearing the same thing, but I hope to hell that they don’t try Murphy at first. I think they have dreams of Mark Grace dancing through their heads, but unless Murphy makes some huge strides this year, he’s a good hitter, but no Mark Grace. I don’t think they have anything set in stone though.
And, thinking about it, it wouldn’t be awful to have Murphy at first for a year or so as a stopgap until a really good first baseman could be acquired through free agency, if that’s what it took.
by Fanon on Mar 9, 2026 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd prefer to think that
But considering how teams are locking up young players I don’t expect any really good first basemen to be hitting free agency any time in the near future, or at least not at a price the wilpons will be willing to pay. I figure their best bet would be going after someone like Holliday or Bay for left field if they hit the market next year but they don’t seem to be inclined to spend that kind of money on players.
by Gina on Mar 10, 2026 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't want to spend the money?
That’s a bit absurd considering that the Mets have two of the highest paid players in the game, had $137 million last year, and are essentially paying three closers this season. The Wilpons spend the money, they just don’t always spend it well.
by Fanon on Mar 10, 2026 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Wilpons lost a tremendous amount of money
in the Madoff scheme and the market downturn.
I think that is what he’s referring to. I don’t remember who said it - it was someone at BP, but he said people he’s talked to with the Mets he asked them if the Wilpons’ financial problems cost the Mets Manny Ramirez and they all said “yes.”
by alskor on Mar 10, 2026 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean they don't want to spend at all
Just not the type of money they would be necessary to get a player like a Matt Holliday, and probably even Bay. With escalations in contracts we’re only going to have like 13 million coming off the books next year, plus the wilpons don’t want to go over the lt. So we’ll be working with like 13 million+ however far away we are from the lt to find a starting catcher, first basemen, possibly a second basemen depending on what Castillo does this year, 5th starter and possibly bullpen arms/bench players. When you consider that plus with teams locking up young players long-term when guys do hit the open market at younger ages, Tex for example, they command a pretty high price I just don’t see where in the next 1-2, or 2-3 years we’d have that kind of money to part with.
by Gina on Mar 10, 2026 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They are strikingly alike… Two CF prospects who are more tools than production. Two mashers who are going to end up at 1B but havent yet. The Yankees dont have the depth of the Mets, though. I give the Mets the edge… but I find Niese and Holt to be terribly overrated, especially around here. The Mets guys are still a notch above Brackman (yuck), Betances, McAllister and Heredia….
These systems arent great… but arent bad. Lots of potential with young guys like Vizcaino. Lots of overrated arms like Aceves and Coke.
by alskor on Mar 7, 2026 10:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Flores at first?
He won’t stay at SS but I think 3B or RF is more likely than 1B
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by Pelferized on Mar 8, 2026 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Goldstein and the people he's talked to seem to think its a strong possibility
He’s a shortstop in name only, and has nowhere near the speed or range to play the position as a professional. He’ll be moved to third base initially, but with his thick build likely to limit his mobility as he matures, many think he’ll end up at first base or in left field.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8376
If it gets to the point where he’s a bad LF or decent 1B it seems like splitting hairs. Point was Montero and Flores are two guys playing out of position who can both rake. Wherever they end up they probably arent going to add much defensive value.
by alskor on Mar 8, 2026 4:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Flores
IIRC, BA said Flores has the best arm in the Mets system and they think he’ll end up a pretty decent RF. Flores is probably slightly higher on the defensive spectrum than Montero because he has a better chance of not ending up at 1B, but I agee that it’s splitting hairs at this point.
by supermets on Mar 8, 2026 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably
But considering Montero is somewhat more advanced of a hitter (a level higher with much better K and BB numbers) though 2 years older, that probably counteracts the defensive disparity
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by OldProspects on Mar 8, 2026 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad LF?
I don’t know why you’d assume he’d be a bat left fielder just because he’ll be too big to play third. It’s possible to stay mobile without maintaining the quick reaction agility necessary for an infield position.
by Fanon on Mar 8, 2026 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you miss the quote above?
but with his thick build likely to limit his mobility as he matures
by alskor on Mar 8, 2026 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, not at all
But to say that it could limit his mobility to the point he can’t play on the left side of the infield is different from saying that he’d be a subpar outfielder. Even if he does thicken up, if he stays in shape he should be able to play a corner. It’s just too early to assume he’s going to get that fat.
by Fanon on Mar 8, 2026 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Martinez
I’m not a huge fan of Fernando Martinez but I still believe he is the best prospect of the top 4 among the systems, so I went with the Mets.
by GoldenSpikes24 on Mar 8, 2026 12:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yanks ove Mets
Fernando Martinez v. Austin Jackson
A typical upside v. security battle.
Advantage: Push
Wilmer Flores v. Jesus Montero
To me, Montero is clearly the better prospect because of his position (catcher) and his work at a higher level. Would you rather have a Miguel Cabrera-type bat at 1B or C
Advantage: Yankees
Jon Niese v. Andrew Brackman
Brackman has ridiculous upside, but Niese has performed well at every level (except the Majors) thus far, and Brackman has many issues to work out as well.
Advantage: Mets
Brad Holt v. Austin Romine
If Holt improves his control, he could be a #1 starter. If Romine builds on the end to last season, he could become a .280/.360/.480-type catcher with great defense. An everyday player is usually more valuable than a pitcher, and I think this is one of those cases.
Advantage: Yankees
Bobby Parnell v. Dellin Betances
Parnell is a middle reliever with below-average control, while Betances is a potential future ace who had his own control problems in A ball before the second half. Despite the difference in levels, Parnell is so ordinary and interchangeable that Betances is the better prospect.
Advantage: Yankees
Jefry Marte v. Zach McAllister
Marte is a potential future masher, while McAllister projects to be a #3 starter. The difference in levels is almost negligible.
Advantage: Mets
Jennry Mejia v. Al Aceves
Mejia is a power arm who dominated in (what i think was limited time in) the GCL. Aceves has had success AA-MLB. The probability of Aceves’s success is simply so much greater right now, even if he is a 5th starter/swingman-type.
Advantage: Mets
Reese Havens v. Phil Coke
Havens, a 2008 draft pick, has a good power stroke with contact questions (as shown in his debut) and an uncertain position at the moment. Coke is a lefty reliever who could be a mainstay in the bullpen for years, or he could be a LOOGY. The disparity in levels and Havens’s questionable performance is the equalizer.
Advantage: Push, lean Mets
Nick Evans v. Mark Melancon
I’d much rather have a future closer than a platoon player, particularly when both are Major League-ready.
Advantage: Yankees
Eddie Kunz v. Jairo Heredia
Many analysts are revising their original assessments of Kunz, and they now think of him as a middle reliever/set-up-type pitcher. Heredia is a control pitcher with solid stuff and good results in A ball who projects to be a #2/#3 starter.
Advantage: Yankees
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by Pablo Zevallos on Mar 8, 2026 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is Jackson's floor higher than Martinez?
Their stats were almost precisely the same last year, even though Martinez was 2 years younger. Their floors seem to be similar (David DeJesus type players? Decent power, pretty good average, a bit of speed). If Montero could stay at catcher, I would entirely agree that he’s better than Flores. As he won’t, I think they’re pretty similar prospects though I would probably lean Montero by the slightest bit.
I don’t think Holt has any real chance to become a #1 starter, but a #1 starter is worth vastly more than an .820 OPS Catcher, unless his play-calling is just that good.
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by OldProspects on Mar 8, 2026 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Defense
Even if the bat doesn’t come together, Jackson will have value as an above-average defensive centerfielder. The likelihood that Martinez will move to a corner on top of his injury history give him a lower floor.
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by lemonjello on Mar 8, 2026 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
That isnt upside vs. security. Its upside vs. upside.
and Montero isnt a catcher.
by alskor on Mar 8, 2026 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really.
That’s why Montero played all his games at catcher last year.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Mar 8, 2026 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm
If that’s how you’re evaluating them, then shouldn’t Flores be considered a SS since he played all of his games there last season?
I’m not sure which I like better, but to give Montero a positional advantage is weak.
by jar75 on Mar 8, 2026 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im going to echo that ZING
and OH YEAH - He played 71 games at catcher and 60 at DH this year, so youre absolutely full of **** here.
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=33900
by alskor on Mar 8, 2026 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok...
…and you obviously forget that he has to share the catching duties with Austin Romine, who plays at the same level.
ZING!
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by Pablo Zevallos on Mar 8, 2026 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Mar 9, 2026 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is completely beside the point.
ZING!
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on Mar 8, 2026 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Flores
I’d take flores for any 4 out of 10 of the yankee’s bums.
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by fourfingerwoo on Mar 9, 2026 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
IMHO
The Yankees system always seems to get more publicity than warranted. Is it any wonder? Seems like they end up using those pieces as assets in trades so often so they’d want them to be highly touted.
I’ll go with the Mets system anytime.
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by FishingMN on Mar 9, 2026 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Publicity
Can’t really blame them, can you?
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 9, 2026 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs








