Update and Discussion Thread
by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2025 2:33 PM EST
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I'm still plugging away at the Padres. I hope to have them done tonight.
Use this thread to discuss the Winter Meetings.
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edwin jackson is close to being traded..
Guesses on where is he gonna end up..
by matthewmafa on Dec 7, 2025 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
According to MLBTR
it’s pretty much guaranteed Detroit is moving him..
Then again, that’s still only a rumor.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Dec 7, 2025 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know it’s only day 1, but I hope the trade of a #5 starter isn’t the biggest news of the week.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
#5 starter?
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2nd half numbers are number 5 starter like
by matthewmafa on Dec 7, 2025 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career numbers aren’t great either. Dude had a career year, good move by the Tigers trying to sell high.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
but he’s got 2 consecutive years of performance prior to that (mid 2007-mid 2009) that clearly show he’s better than that.
he’s young, he’s durable, he’s got great stuff, and he’s still getting better. just like it did with TB last year, this a move which will backfire.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Depends on what we can get
His name’s been connected with some pretty good pieces (Max Scherer, Brandon Morrow). Plus don’t underestimate the ability of the Tigers to scout power arms.
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by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 7, 2025 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think jackson is someone for whom the sum of the parts is greater than them individually
considering the high esteem for which i hold his individual skills (95+ MPH FB, great slider, good pitchability, great durability), i think he’s one of the most valuable properties in major league baseball.
scherzer would make sense, considering the difference in service time, but i wouldn’t touch morrow with a 10 foot pole, and the mets have pretty much nothing to offer.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’s shown some improvement and he’s still young. I just don’t think he’s anything more than a #4 starter yet.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
based on what, exactly?
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Results?
Anything but unjustified positive speculation?
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so, his ERA the past 2 years has been what exactly? a fluke?
he’s good. he’s damn good. he’s still getting better.
his performance has been in line with his stuff for 2.5 years now, and he’s made 2 great leaps forward in that time.
i have no idea what you’re looking at in calling him a 5th starter. he’s clearly better than that.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What did you call it again?
A fluke?
2008 ERA: 4.42
2008 xFIP: 5.16
2009 ERA: 3.62
2009 xFIP: 4.58
Yeah, I guess “fluke” works pretty well.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't know what you're trying to prove here?
if you’re trying to say that he overperformed in 2008, is that supposed to mean that his performance should have regressed in 2009? or replace 08 for 09, and ask the same question about next year?
what are these numbers supposed to show? it’s obviously not a performance indicator since that’s what ERA is. is it supposed to be a predictive statistic? it seems to have failed at that.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Either you're being deliberately obtuse, or you don't know how to evaluate beyond ERA.
Either way, I’m just going to let you be on this one.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Either you're being deliberately obtuse, or you don't know how to evaluate beyond ERA."
considering the second part is very much not the case, the former seems to be more likely.
xFIP is not a predictive statistic. you can’t look at it and blanketly say that anyone who overperformed will regress, and anyone who under performed will get better.
you may think i’m being obtuse, but you clearly do not understand the implications of the statistic if you are using it as the end all, be all.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And I'm not...
so bringing that into the discussion is a bit counterproductive, don’t you think?
You asked if Edwin’s ERA the last two years was a fluke. I said I thought it was, and presented a statistic that removes a great deal of lucky/non-pitcher-controlled factors (or ‘flukishness’, if you prefer) from ERA. The reasonable conclusion to draw from that point is that his ERA benefited from a significant amount of good luck over the last two years.
Is xFIP predictive? Compared to ERA, absolutely yes. That doesn’t mean it’s conclusive, or that pitchers can’t change. If Edwin changes significantly, he might be the kind of pitcher you think he is right now. We’ll see.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.
Per the Hardball Times
xFIP normalizes for HRs. It mean Jackson likely got lucky than most of his flyballs stayed in the park.
ERA is like Batting Average is a modestly usefull stat that gets too much weight.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know if I buy the idea that pitchers have no control over their HR/FB rate. I’d be interested in seeing the evidence of that.
by aCone419 on Dec 7, 2025 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But you're right...
Edwin’s not a fifth starter. He’s only slightly below average. He’s a John Lannan or a Mike Pelfrey. That’s not bad, while it’s cheap.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His 2009 ERA is good (God Awful the last month of the season, but good enough in the first half to keep the overall season number quite good). It’s the first year he really had a WHIP under 1.5, and for how good his stuff can be his K rate and K/BB rate are comparable to Joe Blanton’s.
I think he certainly can be much better than a 5th starter, but right now he’s a lot of potential.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
jackson was 1, his teammate justin verlander was another, and ubaldo jimenez and josh johnson were the other two.
jackson’s arm is exceedingly rare, and it’s not 2007 still. he’s got a track record of success at this point that backs up his awesome FB, so this is not at all a case of “unjustified positive speculation.”
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there were 4 pitchers last year who threw 1000 pitches at 95+ MPH
jackson was 1, his teammate justin verlander was another, and ubaldo jimenez and josh johnson were the other two.
jackson’s arm is exceedingly rare, and it’s not 2007 still. he’s got a track record of success at this point that backs up his awesome FB, so this is not a case of unjustified positive speculation
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too bad all those guys are No. 5 starters too.
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 7, 2025 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, Mick.
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 7, 2025 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't be
i found the snark to be refreshing.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The difference is...
those other three guys have GOOD fastballs. Edwin just has a FAST fastball.
Look at Edwin’s pitch values. There’s not ONE YEAR in his career when his fastball has been a good pitch. His fastball has been worth -70 runs over his career compared to the average one.
Edwin’s got a good slider. Focus on that, because the fastball is a quick, straight, pile of shit. He’d probably be a hell of a reliever.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"He’d probably be a hell of a reliever."
he seems to already be a hell of a starter.
also, the reason his slider is good is because hitters have to time his FB. you can’t take 1 and leave the other.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Without mentioning ERA make a case for what makes Jackson a hell of a starter
Because his peripherals don’t support that much hype yet. I could see him being a #2 starter, but I can also seeing him being Vincente Padilla and annoying 4 or 5 more organizations hoping to unlock his potential.
by Cormican on Dec 7, 2025 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
ERA hasn’t been the pillar of my argument. i’ve just been using it as an indicator of the fact that, for 3 straight years, he’s made marked improvement.
you want something more, though? okay. his BB rate has fallen each of the last 3 years, from 6.2 /9IP in 2006 to 4.9 in 2007 to 3.8 in 2008 to 2.9 in 2009, and this has mirrored his ERA improvement.
but more importantly, the basis of my argument hasn’t been that his ERA is good, it’s been that the rest of his package indicates that his ERA will get better.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im with you
Hes an improving pitcher and “but more importantly, the basis of my argument hasn’t been that his ERA is good, it’s been that the rest of his package indicates that his ERA will get better.” I completely agree with this
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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2025 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His ERA will get better?
What basis do we have to project this? We’ve already determined that advanced metrics say that Edwin hasn’t been nearly as good the last two years as his ERA says. You think that not only is that NOT going to correct, it’ll go the other way?
I’m going to respectfully bow out now, and file this in the same place I did the Mike Pelfrey arguments of ’08. I see this playing out rather similarly.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm.
i might have to make an inquiry in my league. pelfrey’s at a point right now that is exactly where i look for guys. he’s got great stuff, he’s had success in the past, and his value is in the toilet.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pelfrey has "great" stuff?
Now now . . .
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
twitter | jesseburkhart -- draft-related content only
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 7, 2025 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
great FB, at least.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 7, 2025 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And this...
ERA has been practically all of your argument so far. The BB/9 would have been my first argument if I were you. It’s the one thing that’s brought him from being an awful pitcher all the way up to a below-average starter. But as is the case with most pitchers, Jackson had to sacrifice something to make those gains. That’s why his groundball rate has gone from good in 2007 to terrible in ’08 and ’09.
The only case to be made for Edwin as an above-average starter is based on potential. The speed of his fastball gives him potential. If he could add a ridiculous changeup, he’d probably be a very good pitcher. It’s too bad that for every guy who makes a jump like he’ll need to, there’s 20 guys who don’t.
by PissedMick on Dec 7, 2025 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mr. Sickels
are you at the winter meetings?
by rmarx on Dec 7, 2025 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
nope
Nope. At home working on the book.
by John Sickels on Dec 7, 2025 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope the orioles trade Luke Scott
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2025 3:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Nice hitter, can help cover DH and 1B, and even some LF, while the young hitters acclimate.
by Franchise887 on Dec 7, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They could then DH Reimold
Which would allow Pie to play LF and he plays excellent defense.
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2025 4:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I'd like him for the Tigers
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 7, 2025 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice try
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 7, 2025 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Granderson to the Red Sox!!!
No, I haven’t even heard a rumor that states that, but it makes complete sense to me. Save money on Bay/Holliday and move Ellsbury into left. An OF of Ellsbury, Granderson, Drew covers a lot of ground! Of course, it depends on what DET wants for him.
by rmarx on Dec 7, 2025 5:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Young position players
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Dec 7, 2025 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK.. .got a hypothetical
Do you trade Matsuz straight up for Miguel Cabrera?
Yes or No and preferably why….
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
by laxtonto on Dec 7, 2025 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no no no
Tyler Matzek is an exciting young arm. He has the potential to be an ace. Miguel Cabrera is one hell of a bat, but his contract is average for the type of player he is. In Major League Baseball, Cabrera’s trade value should be pretty average.
Basically, average players on great contracts can sometimes be more valuable than great players on average contracts, depending on the situation, and with most of free agency still in front of them, it’s better for the Rockies to keep their cash and their prospect (and either use their cash for somebody else or keep it in case the economy returns to the crapper) than trade their prospect and use their cash to pay a guy they traded for.
Although I don’t really like the model (and neither does my computer, since my computer pretty much hates Excel files) this is a good introduction to the idea:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/15/950094/saber-friendly-blogging-101-trade
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Dec 7, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He said Matusz not Matzek
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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2025 7:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I’m assuming these no’s are for the Orioles perspective. I’d do it just to trade MC for more than one piece. If that’s a cop-out then hmmm… I’m a huge O’s fan, huge Matusz fan, I’d lean towards no. Just because if Matusz is as good as I think he’ll be then that money saved can bring in a MC caliber player or two Lackey types or a Holliday type and another good player etc.
I’d general, I’d be more than willing to take on that contract if I’m the O’s.
by cowboy4eva on Dec 7, 2025 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I am an Orioles fan and I say no
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by ravensfan3 on Dec 7, 2025 9:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow!
Don’t get me wrong, I love Matusz and think he’ll be an excellent SP, but Miggy’s one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s a 1B, so even though he’s by no means a gold glover, he’s only a 1B, which is generally where you stash your good hitters who can’t play the field. How can you turn this down? Do the O’s even have a 1B?
by rmarx on Dec 7, 2025 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You definitely do
Im not a huge Miggy fan, and the drinking incident really bothered me, but you’re talking about a guy who brings ~40 runs a year with his bat. You take that and run.
I love Matusz. More than most people on this site (where he is strangely underrated because of the lack of a top notch fastball. People are worried about what he’s NOT rather than looking at all the good things he IS). BUT if you get the chance to move a guy like that straight up for one of the best hitters in the game you do it. 100% McPhail would do it. Hell, if he wanted, he could trade Matusz for Miggy, then turn around and trade Miggy for a guy equivalent to Matusz plus a lot more! Think about it!
You absolutely do that deal all day long. Yes, Miggy has his worts, and yes he is paid a lot. You still do it. He’s a 5+ win player every year. Even forgetting the attrition rate of young pitchers, its very hard for me to project Matusz as a consistent 5 win pitcher. There were ten pitchers with 6 or more WAR in 2009 and only 7 with more than 5.5 in 2008 and 2009, respectively. Like I said, I love Matusz, but simple odds here, much more likely Cabrera is worth 5-6+ wins each year like he’s been pretty much every year - much more likely than Matusz being one of the top 7 pitchers in baseball every year.
You absolutely do that deal all day long - AND no way do the Tigers take Matusz straight up - AND not only that, but 10 friggin teams would be lined up with better bids.
by alskor on Dec 7, 2025 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AND
to bring up an argument from before the 09 season - is there still anyone who would actually take Miggy over Longoria? If so, you’re either nuts or don’t understand how to properly value baseball players and their contributions to their team.
2010 WAR
Cabrera: 5.4
Longoria: 7.2
2009 WAR
Cabrera: 5.2
Longoria: 7.2
I really can’t believe we had that discussion on here, frankly.
by alskor on Dec 7, 2025 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Granderson blockbuster
Surprisingly minimal discussion on here about it so far.
My quick thoughts -
Diamondbacks - I don’t get why they are doing this deal. I think Scherzer’s better (and cheaper) than Edwin Jackson. For a team with recent financial problems, and a team that’s rebuilding, I don’t get it. Kennedy’s nice … but he’s an end of the rotation arm, in my opinion, and I think many systems have strike throwing, end of the rotation type guys with average stuff. The only thing I can think of is that the D-backs are worried about Scherzer’s mechanics. Even then, to move him this offseason? Add in that they are supposedly tossing in Schlereth?
Tigers - After the initial shock, it’s not a bad deal (although it looks like it’ll be Scherzer/A.Jackson/one lefty). I think Austin Jackson is a decent centerfielder, but of the top of my head, the reports don’t seem to suggest plus defensive ability (solid perhaps), and he’s not a middle or top of the order bat. That said, to net Scherzer is a solid move.
Yankees - I think this is highway robbery. An end of the rotation type in Kennedy (sure, he might have a fluke year or two that has him as a mid-rotation starter, but most projections seem to point to him as an end of the rotation type), AJax, and either Coke/Dunn for Granderson AND a player (Schlereth?). Sure, I’m disappointed the Cubs couldn’t land Granderson … but can someone explain how they Yankees are able to get away with this to me? I don’t get it. Sure seems like a steal for them.
by toonsterwu on Dec 8, 2025 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ah, looks like I get the Schelereth part wrong
Schlereth to the Tigers, which makes the package a bit better for the Tigers. Still think Kennedy/AJax/Coke for Granderson is a steal for the Yankees.
by toonsterwu on Dec 8, 2025 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty good trade for the Tigers, the evil empire gets a star outfielder in his prime and the Diamondbacks get all the risky bits. Huge trade.
by Cormican on Dec 8, 2025 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
major coup for the Yanks
Absolute steal.
by alskor on Dec 8, 2025 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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