I think Matusz deserved to be an A

An ‘A’ should be reserved for the few “special” prospects out there.

Matusz is very talented, extremely well rounded, left-handed, and will show up in everyone’s top 15, but I see ZERO chance at him becoming an ace — excellent #2 ceiling.

Doesn’t look like an ‘A’ to me.

…as long as its because he’s “safe” or a sure thing more than expectations of him becoming a ture Ace/#1 - which Im just not convinced he will strike out enough guys nor have that real “Ace” fastball (this not to say that he can’t approach “Ace” results some years).

That seems to be what John is implying with:

He’s about a safe a pitching prospect as you can find

That is to say, this is more about being a sure thing than a realization his ceiling was pegged wrong….

If you don’t “like the way his body looked in Arizona…he looks stockier and less athletic than a year ago”, why would you think he is a prime candidate for a breakout year in 2010? Doesn’t that seem counter intuitive?

Last year I predicted that Mike Moustakas would have a consolidation season in 2009, posting numbers similar to what he’d produced in ’08, then break out big in 2010. His season at Wilmington was actually rather disappointing, although if you look more deeply at the numbers, some interesting factors emerge, namely an extremely sharp home/road split: .208/.269/.381 at home, .292/.331/.473 on the road. Wilmington is not an easy place to hit, and for some reason the park really got to him. Scouts report that Moustakas struggled with plate discipline and excessive power-consciousness much of the year, but most expect him to make the proper adjustments as he gains experience. Another item of concern: he seems to have gained weight in his hips and thighs, and scouts are worried that his body is going bad early. From the stathead perspective, a decent marker is a non-terrible strikeout rate, but a bad one is a low walk rate. His defense at third base draws just average reviews from scouts, and some project that he’ll end up in right field. On the other hand, the "Total Zone" method of measuring minor league defense rates him as above average with the glove, so the jury is still out on the defense. Moustakas is very young, and I’m inclined to cut him some slack on his 2009 performance. He could put up some big numbers in the Texas League, and while I’m concerned about the evident changes in his body, I’ll stick with my prediction of a ’10 breakout. Grade B.

I absolutely buy that he can be an ace. He posted a K/BB ratio of 2.71… in his rookie season. Based on his minor league batted ball data, he can really keep the ball down (49% at both High A and AA last year) which will limit the home runs he gives up. He’s got as full a repertoire of plus pitches as any young hurler in the league, and understands how to pitch as well as any. In short, he’s one of the very few prospects I’d even consider trading Neftali Feliz for. That praise is as high as I can give him.

How many less "he won’t/can’t/don’t see him being an ace comments would he have if his fastball was a little faster?