Chris Withrow vs Jenrry Mejia
by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2025 5:45 PM EST
73 comments
From what I've read, Meija throws a mid to high 90s fastball with a splitter/change in the high 80s. His command of the change/splitter needs work but it can be a plus pitch at times, and I think he might also have a curve as a 3rd pitch. His strikeout rate is very good and his groundball rates are excellent. One of the concerns is that he is a little guy (6 feet), so the questions of bullpen v starting will continue until a role is defined. As for Withrow, I will admit that I dont know too much about him. He seems to be getting a lot of hype on this board. He has shown strong k rates, but walks appear to be a problem with him. Some have mentioned AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett as possible comps, which leads me to believe that he must have a really good fastball/curveball combo. Can you guys tell me more about Withrow?
Anyways, who do you believe is the better pitching prospect and why? Potential upsides?
Thanks.
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I don't think its that close...
right now. Mejia has much more upside in my opinion. I think he is a better prospect than Neftali Feliz was at that age and they are similar pitchers. Mejia could be the next Martnez if everything goes right and Withrow won’t come close to that.
by joegonzo on Dec 9, 2025 5:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
dennis martinez?
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 9, 2025 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Don’t throw around comps for the other Martinez.
On a different note, Jaff Decker has a nice Babe Ruth vibe going for him.
by PissedMick on Dec 9, 2025 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Hopefully he meant Ramon Martinez as an upside
1 All-Star appearance, 2 top 5 Cy finishes, 1 No-hitter (which he could always hold over Pedro’s head)
105 ERA+ in nearly 1900 IP with a 135-88 record but always had control issues (104 BB in 1995)
Seems like a realistic career to strive for.
by two fishsticks on Dec 9, 2025 7:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
pedro had a perfect game
through 9 innings and the game went into extra innings tied 0-0
by matthewmafa on Dec 9, 2025 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Notice how I said...
if everything goes right. I fully don’t expect him to reach that level, but he has a bigger chance than almost any pitcher in recent memory. Even if that chance is only like 5%.
by joegonzo on Dec 9, 2025 8:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I looooove Mejia...
but I think you meant “0.05%”
by PissedMick on Dec 9, 2025 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's very unlikely
but he has a similar skill set, stature, etc. so it’s a reasonable thing to say.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Dec 9, 2025 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no, it's really not.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 9, 2025 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He doesnt have a similar skill set
Does he have four plus pitches and sit in the high 90s? Are his changeup and curve both in the discussion for best pitch in the game?
Mejia has a similar skill set to Pedro the way Mike Stanton has a similar skill set to Babe Ruth.
by alskor on Dec 9, 2025 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But as a prospect
Pedro wasn’t Pedro. He was traded for Deshields even after he had some major league time. It is a stretch, but you are talking ceilings. If someone had said when Pedro was in the minors he had a righty Sandy Koufax ceiling, people would have said no way, you can’t say that, you are talking about a guy with the most dominant 4 year stretch of pitching ever, with the best fastball and best curveball of his generation. Etc.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 7:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hmm
actually, Pedro’s A ball and AA numbers at 19 were awesome. Deshields was pretty good before that trade, but looking back can’t see why Dodgers did it. I know they questioned if he could withstand starting due to a slight build. He was injured in 1992 at 20. He went from ml #5 prospect in 1992 pre-season to 62 in 1993 per BA (LA 1 and 5).
OK, maybe even as a ceiling it’s too much of a stretch, but Pedro was really good to great in the majors until he was 24 or so. He became superhuman at 25. If you are looking for exact matches of numbers and progression and pitches, nope. Jenrry at 19 at A and AA is no match for Pedro’s stats at those levels at the same age.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 7:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oops
I can’t tell if Pedro was injured in 1992. Could be wrong. I just saw a gap in his stats at baseballcube and he had no minor league stats in 1992 there, and only a few major league innings, so I assumed, since they had minor league stats for him in ’91 and ’93. Anyone know?
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro was awesome as a prospect
but think Neftali Feliz - risk of moving to the pen (mostly due to size/durability concerns), plus nasty streak/bit of an attitude, and 5’9" and tiny frame so lots of scouts thought he would get hurt.
by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
to some degree, Pedro overcame flaws to become… well, nearly perfect. Mejia combines some of Pedro’s strengths and flaws as a prospect (and the strengths arent nearly as strong).
Its the way Michael Jordan was a bad shooter in high school and it drove him and he worked so hard he became an incredibly good shooter. You cant predict that path of success, though, that would be crazy. NBA teams would be incredibly foolish to look at kids who resemble Michael Jordan the high school player and try to predict NBA success.
by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jordan
didn’t even make his high school team as a sophomore.
And he wasn’t even Mr. Basketball his senior year at Laney. Buzz Peterson was (both NC recruits). Hmm.
Jordan did really well at Dean Smith’s summer camp. They could see he was special and they did their best to downplay him.
You are correct. Incredibly driven player.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Point being, the truly great players are typically the ones who turned their weaknesses into strengths, so… its very dangerous to make comps to the true greats and unique players (ie. Pedro, Maddux, Ryan Howard, Pedroia, Jeter, etc…) as prospects, since their greatness was in large part overcoming their flaws as prospects. If we find someone with a similar prospect skillset/tools we need to be especially weary with our projections, since the vast majority of guys who resemble those players as prospects will not be able to overcome their flaws, nevermind turn them into strengths…
by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dr. J
Point taken. Can’t get off Jordan topic. The one player I’d say was more a quantum leap than MJ (well, Chamberlain was a quantum leap when he came in, well before my time, but not so much stylistically) was Erving in his ABA days. Billy Cunningham was a great player who played in both leagues, and when he went back to the NBA he told players there they would be floored by Erving, they didn’t believe him. Cunnigham was The Kangaroo Kid and could outjump most players. Erving was just that much better and unique. Although David Thompson was damn good too. Jordan loved DT.
And Erving was highly thought of coming out of UMass but he also didn’t have the same hype as his later greatness would seem to warrant.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As a prospect?
Pedro was a highly respected prospect…the prospct hype machine just wasn’t as assinine as it is today. Pedro has super stuff. DeShields was no slouch in Montreal…a top5 2B. He did die in LA but not the point….Pedro was only traded because the Dodgers didn’t believe that with his physical body size was capable of holding up as a starter over time. They screwed the pooch on that call!
by GripDog on Dec 10, 2025 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he was highly reagrded
But going into the 1993 season he was ranked 5th on the Dodgers and 62nd in all of baseball by BA. He was rated 1 and 5 the year before. Like I said, something happened in 1992 that knocked him down a peg, and I assumed it was an injury.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't realize...
Mejia had four plus pitches and outstanding control.
What you mean is that Mejia is a small Dominican righty, and Pedro was a small Dominican righty. Their skillsets are NOT similar, as Mejia likely isn’t going to combine the best fastball and changeup in the league with a devastating curveball, a slider/cutter that murders lefties as well as righties, and off-the-charts control and guile.
That’s why I made the Decker/Ruth crack. You’d sound like an idiot if you made that comparison with a straight face, right? Well…
by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2025 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was that Pedro's repertoire
in the minors? Or did he improve upon that in the majors? if people KNEW he would combine the best fastball and changeup in the league with a devastating curveball, and a slider/cutter that murders lefties, why was he only the 5th ranked prospect going into 1992 by BA and the 62nd ranked prospect going into 1993?
I agree that .05% or less may be the likelihood, and his track record at the same age isn’t as good. His fingers may not be as long either. :)
He clearly was very impressive in the minors but I am not sure what people thought of his curve, change-up and slider back then.
I’m not really arguing he even could be that good, but just the issue of how did people even know Pedro would end up having that repertoire. Maybe they did know. And I suppose it is not a great idea to point to the Dodgers trading him as anything relevant to the discussion, although it again should be pointed out that pre-1993 season BA only had him at 62 (I believe).
Not that important though, I suppose. I’ll take Dennis, as some folks have said.
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Withrow=Drysdale
How about that for a shoot the moon comparison? :) Fun with upside. Although that may be less of a stretch. Oh!
by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course Pedro was much better than expected.
And I’m not even saying there’s no chance Mejia could compare. I was saying that “there’s a 5% chance” is a ridiculous statement. That means 1 out of 20 Mejias should become a Pedro. It’s more like 1 in 500.
by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2025 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He learn the curveball after the trade
His brother Ramon teach him the curveball in winter ball. Of course Ramon didn’t have the feel for his own curveball, but do a great job teaching it to his little brother
by LCT on Dec 11, 2025 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Mets would be ecstatic
Dennis Martinez, somehow in secret, had the exact same career as Jack Morris, minus a single World Series game.
by gogotabata on Dec 9, 2025 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus a perfect game!
Unfortunately, he wasn’t a white guy with a Reynolds ‘stash, so he’s not gritty enough to get his own group of misguided HOF supporters.
by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2025 11:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Voted Mejia
Not sure its that close, either… but I, too, would like to hear a little more about Withrow.
Meijia isn’t without his flaws/question marks, but his ceiling is undeniably high.
by alskor on Dec 9, 2025 6:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Withrow (short scouting report)
92-94 FB that he can pump up to the high 90’s. Power CB. CU needs work and isn’t reliable…yet. clean mechanics and good athlete (would have been a 2 way player at Baylor had he went to college). Has control issues though he seemed to improve on that some in the 2nd half of last year.
by cubsfan1 on Dec 9, 2025 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As a Met, Mejia is doomed. So I voted Withrow.
by aCone419 on Dec 9, 2025 7:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
lol
as a met fan i hate to say this…but i agree
by miraclemets on Dec 9, 2025 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guys, can I just say
That height has little to nothing to do with a pitcher’s success rate. I won’t bore you with details, but for a physics class, I did an in depth study of pitcher success rates in correlation to height, and it really doesn’t matter. So his height shouldn’t be a factor
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Dec 9, 2025 7:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Put it up somewhere so we can read it.
No snark. I’d just like to see it.
by PissedMick on Dec 9, 2025 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did your study follow guys as prospects?
Or was it a study of MLB pitchers and stature…
by alskor on Dec 9, 2025 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
the attrition rate of the small in the minors has to be ridiculous compared to the bigger guys IMHO.
I just got on twitter.Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
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by Metty5 on Dec 9, 2025 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure that's true.
The guys with “pitcher’s bodies” get a significantly longer rope from their organizations.
by PissedMick on Dec 9, 2025 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both, I'll try to find some of the data and throw it up here after my midterms
I synthesized Pitch f/x data as well as statistics. Guys who are shorter throw just as hard, and also achieve just as much break on their pitches. I did not look at attrition, which might be an interesting concept to potentially expand it further on.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Dec 9, 2025 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Generally, the guys who tend to have injuries and blow out their arms are guys who tend to have unnecessary torque in their windups. Ignore Lincecum, because he is a freak of nature who throw off all conventional data, but in terms of pure physical concepts, I would almost expect larger guys to suffer from more arm related injuries. Their arms are traveling further (although it may seem a small distance, it truly does change the energy they exert), and therefore, are seemingly generating more force on their shoulders, elbows, et al. I know everyone speaks about a projectable frame, etc, but as a former pitcher (who wound up tearing his rotator cuff, fwiw haha) I can say that these guys are generating 90% of their power from their legs. If anything, a more compact guy would generate higher velocities. Muscle mass for pitchers in their upper torso is really somewhat irrelevant (other than their core), because it actually only adds unnecessary bulk to their frames.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Dec 9, 2025 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just about to post a fanpost requesting info on this subject.
It seems like an old wives tale that short guys are more injury prone. I haven’t seen any studies of it one way or the other, and I would LOVE to see a study. If you could post your study I would love to read it!
by houksyndrome on Dec 9, 2025 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, if we look at some of the past Cy Young winners alone (I know, it's a stupid award, but still)
2009: Lincecum 5’ 2’’ (ha) Greinke 6’ 2’’
2008: Lincecum 4’ 10’’ Cliff Lee 6’ 3’’
2007: Jake Peavy 6’ 1’’ C.C. Sabathia 6’ 7’’
2006: Brandon Webb 6’ 2’’ Johan Santana 6’ 0’’
It’s a crapshoot.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Dec 9, 2025 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ugh. tim lincecum is not a midget.
he’s a stoner. he’s an emo. he’s a midget. but he is not an eskimo.
human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.
by variablesdont on Dec 9, 2025 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Lincecum grew 3 inches in a year in his 20s, amazing
He must have lied about his age……….or weed must make you grow like one.
by tdot mariner fan on Dec 10, 2025 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Santana
is probably closer to 5’10/5’11 than 6’0 he’s little in person
by Pelferized on Dec 10, 2025 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He probably is, but it's so commonplace for pro athletes to have their height exagerrated.
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by Frederick0220 on Dec 10, 2025 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mejia's delivery isn't violent.
He fixed most of the quirks from last year.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Dec 9, 2025 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel like every time there's a mejia thread
I need to go find those quotes from multiple sources explaining that he has a pitchers frame and his delivery is fine…well no more. I’m done.
by JayWise on Dec 10, 2025 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was just speculating
I am very interested in reading what you found. It just seems from what you’re saying its going to be the answer to the question “Are shorter MLB pitchers be as effective as taller ones?” or something like that, more than “Are shorter pitching prospects as likely to reach the majors/be successful as taller ones?”
Ok, those are both phrased inelegantly, but Im not going to waste time on that, since Im sure you see my point. I don’t think the baseball intelligencia questions whether smaller stature pitchers can succeed in the majors - clearly, they can and represent some of the best pitchers (Pedro, Billy Wagner, countless others…).
Basically, if we phrase it in terms of odds of success, I would wager being bigger in stature increases one’s chances of making the majors as a pitching prospect.
by alskor on Dec 9, 2025 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'll definitely try to get it all together into a coherent post by the new year
since I’m assraped by Wesleyan University at the moment haha
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
by Mets2k9 on Dec 9, 2025 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Projectable Frame"
I don’t know if your study incorporated this issue or not.
However, there is clearly a scouting bias amongst prospect pundits with regards to a “projectable frame”. Take 2 hypothectical elite prep pitchers. They are both 18 years old. They both have “clean” mechanics and throw 90-92 mph FB’s and have “developing” secondary pitches. Pitcher A is 6’4", 190 lbs and Pitcher B is 6’0" and 170 lbs. Pitcher A is invariably cited by pundits as having a “projectable frame” that is likely to add ~ 3mph to his average FB, while Pitcher B is not. Is there any validity to this “bias”?
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by Wilbur Wood on Dec 10, 2025 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mejia's movement on his FB
is what sets him apart.
and i love withrow… probably more than most, had him top 50 prospects… but if Mejia is incredibly special
by daveh33 on Dec 9, 2025 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Withrow
Went the other way on this one and went with Withrow. Sure Mejia’s got a good fastball, but he has yet to develop a second out pitch and Withrow also throws heat. While both may end up in the pen, I’d say Withrow’s closer to a sure thing than Mejia.
by MightyMoose on Dec 9, 2025 7:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
to clarify, end up in the pen
if they don’t develop stronger secondary pitches.
by MightyMoose on Dec 9, 2025 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Withrow might end up in the pen?
thats the first time i heard someone say that..
by matthewmafa on Dec 9, 2025 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BA
said that he has an above average curve ball but both the curve and his fastball lacks command. His change-up is a work in progress.
No one said he is going to the pen, but if you have a good fastball, and a secondary offering that lacks command than that’s a ticket to the pen, imo. Obviously if he can harness his control and develop his change-up than his chances for success are better.
Right now, I like his chances of at least being given the opportunity to start more than Mejia.
by MightyMoose on Dec 9, 2025 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
i don’t see the difference in secondary stuff that you mentioned above. you said withrow throws a good curve but can’t locate it, mejia also throws a good curve but also can’t locate it. it’s been characterized as a hammer curve with late break, having plus potential, so i wouldn’t say he has no second pitch.
beyond that mejia is a year younger at the same level, with a better fastball so i’d go w/ mejia here. however, withrow is definitely intriguing and i have to admit this is closer than i initially thought.
by robcast23 on Dec 9, 2025 8:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the curveball is mejia’s 3rd pitch though. HIs fastball and splitter/change are his 1-2
by Pelferized on Dec 10, 2025 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i've read that
but it’s tough for me to buy into a change that runs 87-89 (which many seem to mistake as a splitter due to the speed). though i guess when your fb lives at 95 you can do that.
and i guess that speaks to the inconsistency of his curve.
by robcast23 on Dec 10, 2025 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's more to changeup than speed
Especially for developing players. Based on reports, Mejia seems to command the changeup better, he has good armspeed on it, and he manipulates movement on it well. The curve is probably more of a nasty wipeout kind of pitch, but he has some trouble repeating it.
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What a fool I was to defy him"
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by Meddler on Dec 11, 2025 3:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From KG
I asked this question to KG today:
Rhys26 (Kansas City): A debate’s been raging on another site, as to who is the better prospect, Chris Withrow or Jenry Mejia? I say both may wind-up in the pen, if they don’t develop better secondary offerings. Care to weigh in?
Kevin Goldstein: I think you’re first comment there is VERY accurate. I like them both quite a bit — there’s no slam dunk obviously better one.
by MightyMoose on Dec 11, 2025 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
The voting is pretty tight so far.
by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2025 7:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
also
I appreciate the input so far.
by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2025 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if you're interested in mejia
i wrote a prospect smackdown over at amazin avenue a couple months back pitting jenrry mejia v. kyle drabek here.
definitely some good in-depth mejia info in there. keep in mind it was before the season’s end, the fall league, etc. i meant to post it here too but never got around to it.
by robcast23 on Dec 9, 2025 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, I can't see much, if anything, to put Withrow above Mejia.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Dec 9, 2025 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How about: Withrow’s a better athlete, Withrow has better mechanics, Withrow has more remaining physical projection, Withrow has a better breaking ball, Withrow had a better K rate…
They’re both great prospects and I can actually see an argument for choosing either of them over the other one, it’s definitely not a “slam dunk” in Mejia’s favor.
by jibs on Dec 9, 2025 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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