Rajai Davis in 2010

by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2025 9:51 PM EST Comment 33 comments

After being a 4th OF to start the year, Rajai Davis was finally given an opportunity to play everyday by the Oakland Athletics and produced as a valuable top of the order threat. In 125 games (390 AB), Davis put up a .305/.360/.423 line with 41 SBs in 53 attempts. Heading into 2010, Davis is penciled in as the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Oakland A's. The Bill James Projection has him hitting .284 with 50 SBs.

What do you guys think?

As an everyday player (500 AB), I see him hitting anywhere from .280-.300 with 50-60 SBs and 90+ runs.

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Read More: Rajai Davis (CF - OAK), Oakland Athletics

Comments

.250/.310/.340

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Dec 9, 2025 10:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

kinda skeptical

FWIW…

Career MLB avg: .280/.336/.387
Career MiLB avg: .305/.375/.407

He hits lefties and righties about the same.

by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2025 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'll believe he can hit .300 when he does it over 1000 ABs and 2+ seasons

he’s 29 years old at this point. there’s gotta be some skepticism as to A) whether he’s that good, or B) whether he can stay on the field long enough to get a chance to show it.

human beings, who are almost unique in their ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.

by variablesdont on Dec 9, 2025 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a bit of a difference between .300 and .250

by PissedMick on Dec 10, 2025 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

If you believe Bull Durham :

“Twenty-five hits a year in 500 at bats is 50 points. Okay? There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks ~~- you get one extra flare a week -~~ just one — a gork, a ground ball with eyes, a dying quail — just one more dying quail a week and you’re in Yankee Stadium!”

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 10, 2025 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He Was Lucky

And is due for some regression.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 9, 2025 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously?

Your not even going to attempt to give this guy some legitimate credit huh?? He got a bit lucky in 09’ and is likely going to regress some, sure, but that’s a pretty lame prediction IMHO. The guy has never been given regular playing time prior to 2009, and his career numbers are still far better then what you proposed above, and were so entering last year. So explain why a guy who is 29, right in the middle of his prime, coming off a very good season with his first taste of being an everyday starter should be expected to regress that much. I don’t disagree that he won’t sustain his 2009 production from here on out, however I see him as more of a .275/.340/.385 hitter with the potential to hit better then that outside of Oakland.

by JPShark on Dec 10, 2025 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Above was a reply to variables

by JPShark on Dec 10, 2025 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CHONE: .264/.323/.370 31 SB (in 371 PA)

by aCone419 on Dec 9, 2025 10:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Putting up that line, along with his defense, makes him what? A 3 WAR player?

by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2025 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not in that amount of PA it doesn't...

I’d figure his numbers to go down with more PA, probably to more like .310/.360 (OBP/SLG) since he wouldn’t have the platoon split that often.

Over a full season, if he put up that line and was a +5 center fielder, he’d be like a 1.5 WAR player. If he’s below average like CHONE projects, it’s more like 1 WAR…

The A’s really should move him this offseason. He’s not that good.

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2025 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Platoon advantage*

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2025 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he's better than +5 defensively, even in fewer PA than last year

I don’t think he’s as great as some A’s fans, but I love his defense. I’m sure Geren would bat him leadoff even if he puts up the .310/.360 line, which would make him a bad idea to have on the team. But if he’s batting 9th and putting up +10-15 defense (which is what I think he is over a full season), he’s worth the small price he’s being paid.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2025 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well like I said, reports on his defense are mixed

CHONE doesn’t like him at all, and I think some of the defensive metrics other than UZR are not as high on him as UZR is.

He’s certainly worth his salary; however, I think that someone else might believe him to be worth much more than that. Although, there are a lot of good CF running around this offseason, so moving him might just not be practicable.

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 11, 2025 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and I've been meaning to say this: I love the Psych quote.

Not enough people watch that show, yet everybody watches that stupid fucking plagiarizing Mentalist bullshit show. I don’t think anything in the history of television has pissed me off more than some cheap imitation knock off show being treated like it’s something amazing while most people have no idea Psych exists.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2025 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I Know

It exists, I just can’t watch it. I hate the lead character. And don’t worry, I don’t watch CBS so the Mentalist isn’t in my TiVo either …

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2025 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never heard of Mentalist...

but I love me some Psych.

Shawn: Oh, you mean my pilot’s license? That’s out back in the Cessna. Or perhaps you’re referring to my license to kill. Revoked. Trouble at the Kazakhstan border. I could give you the details but then I’d have to kill you, which I can’t do because my license to kill has been revoked.

by PissedMick on Dec 11, 2025 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What gets overlooked on Rajai is the adjustments he made during 2009.

He didn’t start getting regular time until he realized who he was and made the necessary adjustments, shortening his swing, putting the ball, going the other way on the ground and becoming a contact hitter. Every other game from July onward he was legging out on infield hit, which should be his exact approach.

He’s the first player in a while who I’ve noticed make the adjustment toward choking up on the bat, which led to him punching several balls to right. His bunting, while still a work in progress, has improved to respectability, and he has sneaky pop in his bat, to boot.

Long story short, he became a good player from the ASB on last year. Will he hit .305/.360 again in 2010? Maybe not. But to say him doing so in 2009 was largly due to luck isn’t totally true. It’s not like teams constantly booted grounders and threw balls away, or every ball off his bat was a grounder with eyes.

What I’m trying to say is that speed doesn’t slump, nor is it prone to luck as much as other facets of offense. As long as he keeps the same approach at the plate, I could see him flirting with .300 again in 2010. Also, keep in mind, he was seeing a lot of pitchers for the first time last year in his first real tour of the league, too. My prediction: .292/.350/.405.

http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10

by RyanFromBonas on Dec 10, 2025 12:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

So

Juan Pierre never slumped in his career? Interesting.

I wonder if anyone has really put that canard to the test.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 10, 2025 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it's a completely ridiculous notion

Has utterly no relationship to reality. Players in “slumps” do not simply walk up to the plate and bunt their way on 10 times in a row to “end the slump.”

To the extent that anything “doesn’t slump,” it’s walk rate.

O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?

by PaulThomas on Dec 10, 2025 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I think it's a silly notion, but it may have some merit because the idea is that

even when things aren’t going well, one can still help the team with speed (because, barring injury, players don’t just get slower overnight). Of course I’d rather taking a slumping Pujols over a not-slumping Pierre, but I can see the logic in the argument. Sorta.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2025 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's Why

I was hoping there was some sort of study out there. It’s such a great example of truthiness.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2025 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

270/320/380

will ding enough singles for a decent ave, but he won’t get many walks because pitchers will challenge him due to his lack of power.

solid 4th of’er with his speed, defense, and ability to put the bat on the ball

by ScottAZ on Dec 10, 2025 1:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A .700 OPS in CF with amazing defense > 4th outfielder

You’re using the Keith Law BS made-up definition of 4th OF (because, in discussions I’ve had with him, it’s apparent he thinks just about everybody is a 4th OF, even though by definition that means he’s not in the top 90 OFs in baseball. He puts guys who are 40-50 as 4th OFs).

by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2025 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

Rajai would be an asset, but the kind you’d probably always be looking to improve upon. Most of his value lies in his glove, and with his shaky approach at the plate an unlucky year in terms of contact and BABIP could make him look really, really bad.

by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So he's basically an older version of ellsbury

Less bat than ellsbury, though put ellsbury in oakland and out of the boston media hype and his greatness is lessened
Rajai with better defense

by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 10, 2025 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

Its like the national pastime has become understating Ellsbury these days…

by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I take that back a 1.9 WAR value in 2009 makes it even worse, but i do like his SB’s

by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 10, 2025 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just dont buy his defense as that bad. That’s UZR having problems with Fenway. I also believe he will improve defensively quite a bit. He has all the tools. Ellsbury is a significantly better hitter than Rajai. Rajai is clearly a much better defender, though.

by alskor on Dec 10, 2025 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.320/.370/.440

If that comes true I will start playing the lottery, but since everyone else is picking regression I will go with super-babip inflated lucky monster season. Kinda like Bill Virdon in 1956 but more SBs. No, I wasn’t around in 1956.

by wobatus on Dec 10, 2025 5:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.440 slg%

do you see him hitting more than 10 homers or more than 10 triples?

by ScottAZ on Dec 11, 2025 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

10 triples in a big park like Oakland isn't totally out of the realm of possibility

But of course that line is crazy, and if he did that, he’d be an All-Star.

www.zekeishungry.com

by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2025 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

meant to be crazy

but of course his ISO was .118 in 2009 and this only supposes a .120. Since he already had a super-high babip last year I guess I also am projecting miracle levels, but this really isn’t my “projection.” Everyone was going with regression, so I just threw this out there. It really isn’t that far out of line with last year.

He did .305/.360/.423 last year. He did .318/.389/.469 in 1/2 a season of AAA once. So the above line, while a gag, was meant to be within the outer realm of possibility, however unlikely over a non-platoon full season. Turning six of his outs into five more singles and one double last year would put him over my gag triple slash.

by wobatus on Dec 11, 2025 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs