Controversial Prospect Update: Fernando Martinez

by John Sickels on Jun 12, 2025 3:16 PM EDT

Fernando Martinez went down on May 15th with a hamstring injury and has yet to return to duty. Before getting hurt, he was hitting .280/.314/.408 for Binghamton, with 9 doubles, a triple, 3 homers, 7 walks, and 39 strikeouts in 157 at-bats, 37 games. Given that he is just 19 years old and in Double-A, these are excellent numbers of course.

The sample size is small enough that a detailed analysis wouldn't mean too much. However the concerns about Martinez raised pre-season still remain intact. His plate discipline is poor right now, and in fact has worsened some this year with a higher strikeout rate. Again, given the sample size I wouldn't make too much of that at this stage.

This post is turning out to be a lot less interesting than I expected it to be...basically, nothing has changed here...he's extremely young for the level and the fact that he can hold his own against Double-A competition despite his youth and his poor plate discipline gives him immense potential. But the shape that potential may take remains very unclear to me. I could see him becoming a star or superstar, but I also think it's entirely possible that he could remain at his current level of performance for a long time, or perhaps improve only slightly.

In a way, it would be easier to get a read on what his future could look like if he was playing against competition closer to his own age group. If he was in A-ball right now, he'd probably be hitting something like .330/.365/.465....that would make Martinez's performance about equivalent of what Jayson Heyward is doing right now in the Sally League (.332/.385/.504).

Of course such "reverse MLEs" are problematic. The point remains that Martinez is an outstanding prospect and has lots of time to remedy his flaws. I have compared him to Bobby Abreu before, though I don't think Martinez will show that kind of plate discipline even at his peak. Let's see...how about a Garrett Anderson floor if the plate discipline is mediocre-to-poor, Harold Baines (not longevity-wise, but in terms of seasonal production) as a midpoint expectation if he develops decent but not great discipline, and a Bobby Abreu best-case if it develops to maximal potential?

CLARIFICATION: What I mean by the Garret Anderson comp is if Martinez does develop into a star of some kind, it could look like that, a guy who hits well despite mediocre discipline. It's entirely possible that he doesn't develop into a regular at all and becomes a fourth outfielder or something.

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Anderson Floor?

Have you looked at Anderson’s numbers during his prime years seasons (27-31)? He hit around 30 HR per season, 40+ doubles, and approximately .300. How is that a floor for a player such as F-Mart?

Personally, I would compare F-Mart’s floor if he does not develop plate discipline to Randy Winn. He will become a good, yet not great player.

I do agree with the Bobby Abreu projection although I am not so sure that F-Mart’s game at all resembles Harold Baines.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 12, 2025 3:29 PM EDT 0 recs

mar

what I meant was his floor if Martinez develops well enough to be a “regular star”....I dind’t mean floor like ‘worst case,” the worst-case would be a Triple-A hitter. I should have been more clear about that.

by John Sickels on Jun 12, 2025 3:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks

Thanks for the clarification John. I was a little confused but this makes sense.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 12, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Winn?

You know, complaining about a comparison to Garrett Anderson as a floor because he’s too good, and then using Winn as a floor seems pretty off-base to me. Using WARP3, Winn has provided 6.90 WARP3/162 games, while Anderson has provided just 5.72. If you take out fielding runs above replacement, it’s a little closer, but Winn still blows him away.

by BobbyMac on Jun 13, 2025 8:57 AM EDT up 0 recs

Stats

This is my problem with stats in baseball, sometimes they lie. If you have watched both players in their prime you would realize that Anderson blew Winn away.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jun 13, 2025 12:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Have to disagree.

I would say both players were comparable. Not in any metric, but in importance to their team. They were difference types of players though. Anderson was a power source, and Winn was the type of hitter who would do everything except give you huge power. Anderson was pretty much a 5-hitter (in my estimation. Didn’t draw enough walks to hit 3 or 4). Winn was the type of hitter than could hit anywhere in the line-up… except for 3 or 4. Winn drew walks and stole bases. Anderson did neither very well. Anderson’s career BA is 10 points higher than Winn’s, but Winn’s OBP is 20 points higher. Winn could play all three defensive OF positions pretty well, while Anderson was more of a LF or a CF with some lack of range (not enough to make him a huge liability though). Winn has had more of a “slow and steady wins the race” type of career. Nothing spectacular, but still valuable. I think Anderson has been a little more up and down. His good years were better than Winn’s, but his bad years were worse.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jun 13, 2025 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

stats

Yeah, I would agree that stats are at the core of why these players are mis-assessed so often… Anderson played in a park that didn’t hurt him, in a good lineup, and drove in 116+ runs four years in a row. So, people think he’s some sort of superstar. Anderson was a good, contributing player, and fit into that team well (as noted), but I think that any discussion of his “real” value to a team has to consider the fact that he walked only 282 times unintentionally in 8143 plate appearances. That really undermines the good he did with all those base hits.

While Winn didn’t have as much power, and the park effect upon him is marginal, Safeco and San Francisco haven’t helped what power he does/did have. I have to agree with Box that he’s more of a “generalist” player, and can do several things well, if nothing exceptionally great. Maybe Martinez will end up being like him, but I don’t think that’s any worse of a “floor” than Anderson would be.

I do think that if Martinez doesn’t maximize his skills, I don’t think his stats will have the “shape” of a Winn stat line… he seems likely to be more-power/less-OBP, as many have opined here already. Maybe similar to Corey Patterson at the plate, if one wanted to be really pessimistic? (please, don’t egg my house, Mets fans!)

by BobbyMac on Jun 13, 2025 5:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

he should've been traded instead of Carlos Gomez

if the mets are a win now team , then they traded the wrong bat. can anyone say that Gomez wouldn’t have been major boost in the Mets OF? Gomez looks like he’s putting it together at a faster rate than what Minaya thought he would …

by BxCitizen on Jun 12, 2025 3:32 PM EDT 0 recs

"Should've traded him instead of Gomez" = easier said than done

I think it’s safe to say the Twins were looking for center field help that was a little more immediate than Martinez would have provided.

by jonk1982 on Jun 12, 2025 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gomez still has a lower floor IMO, but a higher ceiling

by Bravesin07 on Jun 12, 2025 4:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

I can’t imagine Gomez having a higher upside then Fernando Martinez. Martinez’s Offensive tools are off the charts good. Sure, Gomez has defense, Gomez has speed, but Martinez has impact bat potential, he can be the kind of the guy who you plug into your cleanup spot and not worry about it for the next 10 years. I don’t see that in Gomez.

I really don’t think Bobby Abreu is a good compaison either, Abreu’s game is being an On Base Machine and stealing bases. That’s not really what Martinez is going to do, Martinez’s upside profiles more to be a Juan Gonzalez type where he could have some 40/130 seasons in his prime but isn’t going to walk or steal close to as much as an Abreu.

by adropofvenom on Jun 12, 2025 5:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

Twins wouldn’t have taken F-Mart over Gomez….they wanted someone they could plug into CF in 2008 and they got it in Gomez. F-Mart wouldn’t have been ready for that.

by adropofvenom on Jun 12, 2025 5:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

same pattern as last year

Appeared overmatched in April, got red hot and looked like he was breaking out in May… then got hurt. I’m very interested to see what he would do in an injury-free season.

by jeck on Jun 12, 2025 3:56 PM EDT 0 recs

I think you've giving him far too much credit

It’s getting to the point where we need to ask what effect the Mets rushing him so badly is going to have. Just because he’s showing more power than Tabata doesn’t mean his numbers remotely justify the hype at this point. His poor plate discipline, combined with his likely future in a corner spot, have really downgraded his stock.

by number_twentyone on Jun 12, 2025 7:12 PM EDT 0 recs

It’d be one thing if he was being overmatched but he really hasn’t been. His line in May was .349/.370/.558 before he got injured. The problem has mainly been that he hasn’t been on the field long enough for him to accumulate numbers on one of these hot streaks. He gets hot and then he gets injured on some freak play, it’s rotten luck really.

Yes, the plate disclipline needs work but the same can be said about alot of prospects. But just for the sake of compairson, the only other 19 year old in the Eastern League is Tabata and Martinez is OPS’ing 114 points higher. He’s playing in a Pitchers league at an extremely young age, his numbers are quite good in the proper context. The only thing they show is that he isn’t as polished as Justin Upton, but quite few are. lol

He’s got to put up some better numbers if he wants to make his MLB debut next year like was originally planned, but that’s the least of his concerns right now. And no, having to play a corner never really hurt his value, because it was common knowledge since the day he signed with the Mets that he was never going to be able to handle Center. His stock was always built around his bat, not because of his glove.

by adropofvenom on Jun 12, 2025 8:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

ludwick

we’ve seen this year what can happen to a guy with all the talent but just terrible luck when he finally gets healthy and puts it together….not saying martinez is headed down THAT route exactly, but that he’s certainly stalled his once-unstoppable train….

by biggentleben on Jun 12, 2025 8:59 PM EDT 0 recs

what about

Soriano without the speed?

by jahs34 on Jun 12, 2025 9:25 PM EDT 0 recs

Better

That’s a better high-end comp than Abreu, IMO.

by supermets on Jun 12, 2025 9:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

How about Moises Alou?

Ironically hurt also…. Abreu is a nice comparison but he steals bases… It does not look like F.Martinez will do that… I would love for FMart to have Moises career minus all the DL stints… ha ha

by louief1 on Jun 13, 2025 1:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Alou

Alou is a first ballot hall of famer without any DL stints. He is STILL a great hitter when healthy.

by supermets on Jun 14, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think the Garrett Anderson comparison is better for F-Mart than Winn

not taking anything away from Winn. I think Jacque Jones or Raul Ibanez at the plate is a better low-end success comparison for Martinez. Anderson would probably be more towards the middle, as his prime years were well above average. I think what we’re getting at is that learning how to walk will open up a lot of doors for Martinez.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jun 13, 2025 5:53 PM EDT 0 recs