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Weekend Discussion Question

Weekend Discussion Question:

If you could have David Price or Cole Hamels for your favorite team starting in 2009, who would you pick and why?

UPDATE:  I thought it was implied in the question, but just to be clear, everything counts here, including money.

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Hamels

He’s already established, seems to be handling his innings load just fine this year and I’m enamored with his changeup.

I don’t know if the question includes arbitration time and what not, but if I had to pick one pitcher for 2009 and the years following: I guess I would still pick Hamels.

I know Price isn’t nearly as slider-happy as Liriano was prior to TJ, but Hamels is for the most part a three pitch guy. Fastball, change-up, curveball. I think that means less stress on his arm. Even though Hamels has had some injuries in the past, I’m more confident with Hamels than Price. Price still may never reach his full potential…maybe he becomes better than Hamels…but Hamels is much more of a sure thing.

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Oct 25, 2025 9:32 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

Hamels is amazing. Best changeup in baseball. Really understands how to pitch and setup batters. Doesn’t just pitch down or just nibble on corners like some successful pitchers. He uses all different parts of the strike zone and changes the hitters eye level very well. Some batters like to cheat and just sit waiting for a pitch in a certain zone. Hamels approach makes him better equipped to exploit that to his favor.

by fourthandeye on Oct 25, 2025 10:06 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Best Change in Baseball?

I think Johan Santana has something to say about that.

by supermets on Oct 25, 2025 12:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

It's kind of a toss up at this point

Both have pretty nasty changeups. But I’d still rather have Santana than Hamels for 2009 (Salaries aside).

by JayWise on Oct 25, 2025 1:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

David Price is a fine pitcher, but he’s like laser eye surgery — still new and might make you go blind.

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Oct 25, 2025 10:19 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

For just 2009, that’s a no-brainer. Take the proven MLB talent.

If contract situation is taken into account, I’d go with Price, since he’ll cost virtually nothing over the next 3 years. That’s too good to pass up.

by dkdc on Oct 25, 2025 11:34 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I'd go with Price for the reasons dkdc mentioned

Starting in 2009 is the key for me. Which includes every year afterwards. Nothing beats cheap talent with high ceiling. Especially cheap talent that is under control for several years.

It doesn’t hurt that my team already has such nice starters that I really don’t see the point in having a ready-made ace for the short term.

by JayWise on Oct 25, 2025 11:39 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Everyone should be voting Hamels

He’s proven, while Price is not.

by Matt Rox on Oct 25, 2025 11:47 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

No guarantee Price will ever be as good as Hamels is now

Not to say that Price doesn’t have a ceiling which could be higher than what Hamels is right now, but I vote for the guy that already is the complete pitching package at age 24.

There are very few pitchers I’d rather have than Hamels (in fact there may be no other pitchers I’d take over him given his age/stuff/polish/results — maybe Lincecum).

by jibs on Oct 25, 2025 12:08 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

HAMELS IS FOR ME

as special as a talent price is, i will go with hamels because hes proven. you can plug him into the #1 spot and not worry, because your going to get a good outing almost everytime out. you can pretty much write in 16-18 W 3.00 era and 180 K’s.

by cubsfan1 on Oct 25, 2025 12:12 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I WOULD HAVE LIKED TO SEE THE QUESTION POSED AS PRICE V. KERSHAW

Only for the pure fact both are big time lefty prospects who are almost all projection at this point.

by cubsfan1 on Oct 25, 2025 12:15 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

um hamels..

I am surprised this is an actual discussion question, price is a superb talent but..hamels is a proven young ace, price will need to establish himself some lol

by stogies on Oct 25, 2025 12:35 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Price

He has better stuff and a better defense behind him. He has every thing you need to succeed right away. He also has a ton of confidence, which is on display in the world series. Hamels has more experience and has shown he is an ace, but Price could be better. Hamels is the safe pick and Price is the very risky pick, but Price could also reward your team more.

by joegonzo on Oct 25, 2025 12:51 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

he's not joe blanton, you know

he had a 3.2 ERA this past season. he’s a hell of a pitcher, and unlike price, he’s actually proven it at the highest level for a couple of years.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 25, 2025 1:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

actually

hamels had an era of 3.09 this past season while pitching in one of the best hitters parks in all of baseball. personally, i think he’s 1 of the top 3 or 4 pitchers in baseball and i don’t really think there’s much of a question as to who the choice is here.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 26, 2025 2:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

It didn't play like a significant hitters park this season

It was 11th in home runs and 15th in runs. It wasn’t quite neutral, but not the home run haven it has been in the past. That may be a fluke, we’ll see.

Tools Whore

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by Tyler on Oct 26, 2025 5:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Fluke

If you watch a game there you see how many cheap homers there are.

by supermets on Oct 26, 2025 7:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

still bitter, eh?

keep telling yourself it’s a fluke, but this phillies team was also the best road team in the national league.

but, yeah, it’s all cheap homers. keep blaming the park when your team collapses for a third straight time in 09.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 26, 2025 8:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Not what I was saying

I wasn’t saying anything about the Phillies. I know they were a great team. I’m saying it was a fluke that there weren’t as many homers hit there because if you watch the games there are a lot of cheap homers.

by supermets on Oct 26, 2025 9:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i liked casey blake's reaction, myself:

“I’m tired of hearing this stadium is a bandbox,”

i don’t think it’s a fluke at all taht the number of homers decreased this year. i think that completely reflects the superior pitching that was brought in this past season.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 26, 2025 9:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

How many homers

has nothing to do with how a park plays..

its about how many home runs players hit there vs how many they hit on the road…. (this includes road teams)… if players hit homers at a higher rate in a park then they do in other parks, then the park improves home run rate…

e.g. if phillies pitchers dont allow a lot of homers… they might still allow more at home then they do on the road, which would make the park still a “bandbox”

3 year park factors heading into this year had homers inflated by 30% for LHB and 36% for RHB… the sample size for park factors is way to small to use anything less then 3 years worth of data. Soon the 2006-2008 data should be up.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 26, 2025 10:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

I do not see this as particularly close. And I do love me some Price.

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by doublestix on Oct 25, 2025 1:51 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

Price still has to prove he can adjust to big league hitters once they get a read on him.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Oct 25, 2025 2:53 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Tough to call

Hamels does indeed have the best changeup in the game right now, and he has a sneaky fastball, and is already proven. Price has limitless potential, a mid 90’s fastballl, with a devastating slider and very good location, and the possibility that he might overtake all lefties to become the best. If it were right now, I would say Hamels just because of everything he has shown in his career and in the postseason so far

by MartyMcFly on Oct 25, 2025 3:14 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Santana

has the best changeup in the game bar none

by supermets on Oct 25, 2025 5:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Just 'cause he's getting paid more...

Hamels’ name may be less well-known, but he’s changeup is as good as anyones, including Santana’s. Have you been watching these playoffs? His change has been money.

by mraver on Oct 25, 2025 9:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Santana

Santana’s change is an 80 on the 20-80 scale. Hamels’ is probably a 75

by supermets on Oct 25, 2025 10:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

This post is Exhibit A for why references to "the scouting scale" should be outlawed...

The inclusion of numbers gives the illusion of objectivity to what is, in fact, an utterly subjective statement. I mean, it’s not like you’re really saying Santana’s changeup is 16/15ths as good as Hamels’s… the numbers are just symbolic ways of saying “really really good” and “slightly less good.”

It may be that people will eventually be able to put run values to certain pitches, and I know some analysts are experimenting with this stuff, but there’s no way on God’s green earth you’re going to suss that accurately by this kind of dead reckoning.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2025 5:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

please

hamels’ change is equally as good. furthermore, i’d love to see what kind of numbers he’d put up pitching half his games in a pitchers park like shea.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 26, 2025 2:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

when Hamels can strike out

240-260 guys in a season, I will consider his changeup as good as Johans.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 26, 2025 10:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

BS. If that were the measure, You could say the same for Lincecum too, as his change is also very, very good (and was his best pitch this year), and his strikeouts would count.

The amount of K’s has more to do with their other pitches (Santana and Lincecum), than the quality of the change itself. It isn’t a stretch to say Hamels’s change is up there with the best that have thrown it, period.

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Oct 26, 2025 11:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i disagree

Johan gets most of his ks on changeups and fastballs. His slider is really a 3rd pitch, although he used it more this year if i recall correctly.

Lincecums strikeout stuff is his fastball and his nasty slider, but he has a good change, but its not his strikeoutpitch.

Hamels has a very good curve ball as well, but his change is not as good and he doesnt get as many Ks.

Overall I agree that Hamels Change is damn good, but Johan’s might be the best I have ever seen in baseball.

You know who had an incredible changeup for his short prime… Jason Schmidt…. when he was brining 98 mph heat, that change was deadly….

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 27, 2025 7:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Instead of calling one or another the best in the game, you'd do well to look at the numbers.

Santana’s 2 seamer and change move on exactly the same plane, each registering around 7 inches horizontal and 7 and 8 inches vertical, respectively. Meanwhile they average more than eleven mph velocity differential! That is what makes his change great: it looks almost exactly like a fastball, until it doesn’t.

Hamels change is very, very good. He gets a 10 mph differential, but his fastball differs by about three inches horizontally and almost five inches vertically. Also, because he doesn’t throw a slider, the hitter only has to worry about the FB/change if he doesn’t see a curveball trajectory.

Either way, I’d take Hamels on my team before Price. There are too many unknowns with Price, while Hamels has already arrived.

Space.

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So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Oct 28, 2025 5:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

In 2009

Hamels, no question. Over the next 5 years, might be a different answer.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Oct 25, 2025 4:19 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

He said "starting in 2009"...

That said, I’d stick with Hamels, as Price is much more likely to be a bust at this point. 2+ years under your belt as a good starter is huge.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Oct 26, 2025 5:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hamels

Is this even a question?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Oct 25, 2025 5:18 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

price

He’s still got all 6 cost-controlled years left. He’ll be free for the first 3. Yes, please.

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by rswanzey on Oct 25, 2025 5:26 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Easily Hamels

I love David Price and I think he’ll be great, but Hamels track record wins it.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2025 9:01 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Flip a coin

Surprised no one has brought up Hamels injury history yet.

Both are immensely talented and obviously and have pros/cons. Hamels contract and injury history - Price needs to “prove” himself (though I see it as more as just a matter of time) and he has a significant advantage in a cheaper contract.

If money is a factor it’s Price - if not, I go Hamels.

by slurve on Oct 26, 2025 7:48 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

injury history?

doubtful that hamels’ punches anyone out in the near future. furthermore, any pitcher is susceptible to injury but i would think a pitcher that features a hard slider to be a little more so. give me the pitcher that throws fastball/change and an occasional curve any day.

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Oct 26, 2025 2:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

More than

one injury. He has had back and elbow problems as well. 2004-05 were both lost seasons.

by slurve on Oct 26, 2025 5:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Let Me

Let me make an argument for each guy.

Hamels — far more proven.

Price — likely can improve much more, younger, cheaper for longer.

I am tempted to go with Hamels, but without researching the matter, I’ll go for the guy with the higher ceiling — and I believe that is Price.

by sharksrog on Oct 26, 2025 2:44 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Things that make you go hmmmm?

How does anyone pick price over hamels?

Hamels has ALREADY DONE IT for an extended period of time, price has a few good innings.

All those picking price are the exact type of guy I want in my fantasy pool. You take maybin, I take ibanez. You take andrus, I take o.cabrera. You take porcello, I take danks. Lets see who wins this year.

Proven is 100% better than ceiling….

by tuna411 on Oct 26, 2025 2:51 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Gee

Gee, I honestly thought we were talking about which player we would choose for the rest of his career. If we’re talking only about 2009, I’ll definitely go with Cole right along with you. Not that David COULDN’T possibly beat Cole, but the odds certainly don’t favor it.

Sorry. I thought we were talking the rest of their careers.

by sharksrog on Oct 26, 2025 9:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hamels...

Price is no doubt a great talent who has a bright future, but for Hamels the future is now. Should be a #1 for at least the next 4-5 seasons. Price could well be that, but we don’t know with as much certainty.

by BraveBronco0121 on Oct 26, 2025 3:37 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Hamels....

Right now I don’t think anyone could take Price. He has about two-minutes experience in the Major Leagues (albeit good post-season experience). Hamels is proven.

by sheetskout on Oct 26, 2025 8:08 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I understand

I understand precisely what you’re saying. Makes a LOT of sense, frankly.

But I can’t help but think back two winters ago when Will Carroll of BP was asked in an on-line chat which pitcher he would take for his franchise for the next 10 years, and he came back with Tim Lincecum, who had yet to pitch an inning above Class A ball.

Looked like a pretty risky pitch by Will at that time. Certainly I couldn’t even convince John here to make Tim his #1 pitching prospect over Phil Hughes and Homer Bailey.

But now, just two years later, Will’s pick looks pretty good.

By the way, two winters ago the only pitcher I might have taken over Tim was Felix Hernandez, who was just 20 at the time. Like Cole compared to David, Feliz was more proven. But whereas David is younger than Cole, Felix was (and obviously still is) even younger than Tim. Even then it would have been a very tough call for me.

And one that Will Carroll decided in Tim’s favor. Some people just have more vision than others, although no one’s vision is anything approaching 20/20 going forward.

by sharksrog on Oct 26, 2025 9:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yes, well generally speaking the higher the risk

the higher the possible reward.

In that case will carroll got it right, but what if he had said Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, Matt Cain, Clay Buchholz, etc.

In general, when you are talking about an elite player who is proven vs. a player with the potential to be elite why take the other guy?

I think most GM’s have to make a tougher decision. Its more like Joe Blanton or very good prospect x.

I mean look at what Joe Blanton fetched… the phillies gave up 3 pretty good prospects to get him, so proven ability at the MLB level is worth a lot more then proven at the minor league level.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 26, 2025 10:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Hamels is the guy for me

for all the reasons stated above…. he has proven it at the MLB level and is turning 25 in December. Price has shown guile and plenty of stuff, and could be a “randy johnson” type ceiling. But he will be 23 next season, so is only about 2.5 years younger… so age is not a huge factor here… over the next 10 years most of those will see both pitchers in or before their primes.

Obviously this answer could be very different next year at this time, but I have to make a decision on what I have at my disposal now.

I guess the interesting thing would be….. if the phillies called up the rays this off-season and said.. price for hamels straight up… which team would take that deal (if either ).

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 26, 2025 10:15 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

with how this series is going

i don’t think the phillies will be making any calls to other teams concerning hamels/

noone regrets paying great talent great sums of money. it’s the high price of mediocrity that kills ya.

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 26, 2025 10:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

How do you think that conversation goes?

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by jbluestone on Oct 26, 2025 10:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

My team isn't in win now mode

so I would take Price. The 2 years at league minimum (assuming he sticks and becomes a super 2) offer a lot of value, as does having 6 years of control instead of 3. Hamels will be up for arbitration this year. If I was a large market team and/or needed to win next year it would be different.

by carverslacker on Oct 26, 2025 10:28 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I dont think he could become a super two?

He got called up in sept. so he wouldnt have super two status.

http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/info/faq.jsp#arbitration


A player with at least two but less than three years of Major League service shall be eligible for salary arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and he ranks in the top 17 percent in total service in the class of Players who have at least two but less than three years of Major League service, however accumulated, but with at least 86 days of service accumulated during the immediately preceding season.

The language is a bit tough, but i guess if price has 2+ years after 2010, and he is in the top 17% of service time of players in that 2+ service time players.

I dont really follow this enough to know how likely it is that he receives super two status with 2 years and sept (which might not even count as service time due to roster expansion.)

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 27, 2025 8:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Soon...

We will hear the “Derek Holland or David Price?” question.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Oct 27, 2025 2:07 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I don't see

How anyone can choose Hamels at this point. All Price has to do is be over half as good as Hamels over the course of the next six years and he is more valuable. Just the cost controlled aspect of Price means that if Hamels repeats his performance from this year over the next three years of his contract, he’ll average 13 WS a year. For Price to make up that value over the next six years, he’ll have to be as good as Jair Jurrjens, Mike Pelfrey or this years Josh Beckett. Good pitchers, but that’s the least he’ll have to be and Price is projected to be ace material. Plus you’re getting three of Hamels arbitration years and three years of almost free Price along with three arby years. I think the obvious answer is Price here over the long haul of this team.

by jullberg on Oct 27, 2025 4:20 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

so i take it you think t

that trading curt schilling for travis lee, vicente padilla, omar daal, and nelson figueroa was a net positive for the phillies?

When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.

by variablesdont on Oct 27, 2025 2:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

the two teams

i follow most closely the braves by far and then the twins as the local club….both clubs are under pretty strict budgets, and i would say having a talent like price under team control going forward would be more valuable to both franchises….simply sick to think of the lefty pairing of price/liriano (even liriano 2008 version rather than 2006 version)….add in a scott baker or kevin slowey between the two for a change of pace look during a series, and it could be a fun few years opening the new park in minnesota….

likewise, the braves would be more than happy to have a guy like price to pair with jurrjens as the arms of the future in the rotation….the advantage the braves would have is having a guy like john smoltz who has been great working with young fireballers who have come up over the years (though they’ve been few and far between)….jason schmidt once said that advice that smoltz gave him while he was still in atlanta was what he repeated to himself before every pitch….and kevin millwood had a ton of success with smoltz’s tutelage, though time and wear have lessened his “power” modality……price with the tutelage of smoltz could be something to behold….

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Oct 27, 2025 11:35 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Cole Hamels

Hamels is already a proven commodity while Price has barely played in the ML level. Sure, Price’s potential is sky high but at this point why take that risk when Hamels is already a dominant force in the ML level.

by R I O T on Oct 27, 2025 6:57 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs


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