More on Lou Marson
by John Sickels on Oct 29, 2025 7:04 PM EDT
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I thought the Greg Golson and Anthony Hewitt things would be controversial, but instead it seems to be Lou Marson who is the controversial grade on the Phillies list.
Maybe I should go with B- instead of C+, but I really can't see it higher than that right now. I want to see more than just one high batting average season out of him before concluding that his BABIP this year was not a fluke. That said, someone in the thread below mentioned Suzuki as a comp, and I can see that as a possibility. If you want to get REALLY optimistic, you could point out some parallels between Marson and Geovany Soto, who didn't show much power early in his career but did have good plate discipline. Of course you could also point out numerous promising young catchers who fail to build on a good season and fizzle out.
I will think on it more and may upgrade to B-, but I think some Phillies fans need to take a step back and look at it a bit more objectively.
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Could someone remind me...
of what the different grades represent? How good is a B? Is there such things as an A+?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Oct 29, 2025 7:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To be more specific...
In an average year, about how many prospect are going to be an A, an A-, a B+, and so on? How tough of a curve is JS using?
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Oct 29, 2025 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's a pretty tough grader
You can check his grades from last year by searching for his Top 20s
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Oct 29, 2025 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sickels grades
Only a handful of guys get an A.
An A- is likely a top 30 guy.
A B+ is pretty much guaranteed top 100.
A B- is probably in the top 200, or at least a good candidate for it.
A C+ may not make the top 10 for a really stacked system, but at least will be in the discussion for the back end of a top 10 for most systems.
Finally, he’s not grading on a “curve”; meaning how ever many As or Bs there are, that’s how many there are that year. Because of that he really doesn’t like to put numbers on it. What I’ve listed above though is just from observation of past results.
by acerimusdux on Oct 30, 2025 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Oct 30, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
accurate
this is an accurate summation. thanks acer.
by John Sickels on Oct 30, 2025 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
prospect smackdown
marson vs donaldson…who do you take?
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 29, 2025 8:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marson has no power
good grade john, agree 100%. Never been wholly impressed with Marson.
by bravitos5122 on Oct 29, 2025 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marson
When you look at who these two guys compare to I think the best comparisons are Kurt Suzuki and Brendan Harris. I’ll take a starting catcher over a guy who doesn’t have the glove for short or the bat for 3rd everyday of the week.
by Birdfan01 on Oct 29, 2025 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree completely with John here
His skillset just isnt impressive… what is Marson’s ceiling, really? Nothing to get excited about here. There are a whole lot of catching prospects Id rather have… and they all cant be B-’s or up.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2025 12:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I mean
really, I see a guy who will hit for a decent average (league average .275ish) a few years and then look terrible in other years. I think he’ll be a starter for 3-6 years and then hang around as a backup for a long time. He profiles perfectly as a backup catcher. Good catch and throw guy with some plate discipline, but with no power whatsoever and mediocre contact skills.
YES I said mediocre contact skills. If we look at minorleaguesplits.com and neutralize his 08 stats for park and luck we get a line of:
.264/.389/.354 (.743)
His MLE would be:
.249/.369/.322 (.691)
Meh. Looks just like a backup catcher to me. Furthering the BABIP argument is his 59.4 GB%. A ton of those groundballs wont be hits at higher levels.
I imagine he’ll get a few chances to start, but he just doesnt bring enough with the bat. Even if he hits for a higher AVG than Im saying it would be an extremely empty average. If we had a good defensive SS who hit like this you would all be killing him and calling him a utility guy. Marson is completely incapable of hitting for power and its a huge problem.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2025 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I mean
You’re vastly overrating the typical MLB catcher. MLB average performance for a backstop last year was 254/327/388 [courtesy Baseball Prospectus]; Marson’s MLE is actually better than that, since OBA is worth considerably more than SLG.
And, of course, Marson was 22 last year; most young players get quite a bit better offensively from that point onward. Of course, catchers don’t always develop normally, and maybe Marson’s lack of power will catch up to him, but neither is a huge red flag right now IMO.
Toss in a solid defensive reputation and I see every reason to hope that he is a quality regular for a long time and maybe occasional All Star at his peak, which sounds like an easy Grade B and borderline Top 50 candidate to me.
by ManConley on Oct 31, 2025 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For what it’s worth, I agree with John on Golson and Hewitt. I’m a big believer in plate discipline as the most important indicator going forward, and that’s why I’m down on those two.
On the other hand, that’s why I’m so high on Marson. We can argue all day about whether the power will come around or not, but even if it doesn’t, catchers with this kind of OBP ability are extremely rare. To counter alskor above: you need to look at the expectations for catchers in the majors at this point (as opposed to shortstops). With the exception of a quintet of very good hitting catchers — Mauer, Soto, McCann, and Martin — the position is almost entirely devoid of any offensive punch nowadays. Anytime you have an adequate defensive catcher who hits anywhere other than 8th, you’re getting positive value… and THAT’s where Marson’s value comes from.
In the end, I wouldn’t want to influence John’s grade, but I just wanted to get my two cents in. It’s a good discussion, and it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming years.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 30, 2025 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In-play numbers vs out-of-play numbers
There is entirely too much emphasis on OBP as an indicator of future growth. It is normally far more important to look at two things:
— how often the hitter makes contact: you normally want a contact rate of at least 75%
— what the hitter does when he does make contact (on-contact BA and on-contact ISO)
On-contact BA and (perhaps more importantly) on-contact ISO are more indicative of future success for minor league hitters than they are for major league hitters. Ryan Howard’s “plate discipline” was nothing special in the minors, but he destroyed the ball on contact, especially as he moved up the ladder.
Marson’s on-contact BA did go up this year, but his on-contact ISO went down, from .157 to .136. That is NOT a good sign. Nor is the decline in his contact rate, which dropped from 79.9% to 78.5% even as his walk rate improved. Those two things are normally a sign of a hitter who is not being aggressive enough at the plate.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
by MikeE on Oct 30, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hadn’t seen this distinction drawn before, but it makes sense intuitively. A question then: where do you get those numbers from? Fangraphs doesn’t provide minor league numbers, so there’s probably a site that I’m missing here.
For comparison’s sake, I’d love to see how Marson’s contact rate and on-contact BA and ISO stack up with Jason Kendall’s minor league numbers. Kendall is a fair comp looking at the slash averages and plate discipline, so if the peripheral numbers line up as well, there’s still a reason to be excited over Marson.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 30, 2025 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sources
Baseball-reference has Marson’s minor-league stats:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=8938
Kendall - whose birthday, like Marson’s, is June 26, although he was a year younger at most levels - made contact far more often (he fanned 85 times in the minors to Marson’s 302 in around the same number of PAs) with similar (slightly less) in-play ISO. Kendall outhit Marson in A-ball (although Clearwater’s a tougher hitting environment than Salem, it’s not 50 points of OPS tougher) and while they were comparable in AA, Reading’s a better environment for hitters (especially for power) than Carolina.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
by MikeE on Oct 30, 2025 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either way
Jason Kendall had a few good seasons but for much of his career has been one of the worst hitters in the majors… Im not sure you want to use him as a comp for anyone…
by alskor on Oct 30, 2025 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall
Man, he was such a great player before that injury…
by GuyinNY on Oct 31, 2025 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eh
He came back strong after that, but his entire gig was based on his contact skills, which faded very quickly. After that he was a terrible hitter. It was sort like Nomar’s decline.
by alskor on Oct 31, 2025 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall
I remember him being much, much more rounded than just a contact hitter. The numbers seem to back it up (consistent 25 SB speed! from a catcher!). As best I can tell, Kendall hasn’t had his tools torn away from him by a consistent progression of injuries, a la Nomar. Rather, it was just one hideous injury, and the aging process. Very, very underrated player on his career, though.
by GuyinNY on Oct 31, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you for the most part
BUT when a guy shows as little punch as Marson has in the minors that is a major red flag. It means major league pitchers will have absolutely no fear of him and will just throw strikes at him. Guys who have no power but walk a lot in the minors often reach the majors and their OBP dries up.
I just dont think he’s a major league hitter. With his mediocre contact skills he’s not going to hit for a high average and he has no pop at all. Major league pitchers are going to attack him and he will be exposed because he cant do anything except hit ground balls… which will be turned into many more outs by major league defenders. In fact, I guarantee he gets exposed next year in AAA.
People are just putting way too much stock in his AVG here. Its a fluke. If he hit .250 with the same walk rate like he very easily could have no one would be talking about him. His low K rate occurred because he hit those balls on the ground. They should have been turned into outs but for whatever reason (poor defense/ good luck) a number of them got threw and inflated his stats. This is not indicative of his true hitting ability.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2025 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’ll obviously disagree over Marson’s value, but your concerns are well-founded. I believe (hope?) that Marson’s power will come around to prop up his OBP, but if not, then I agree that the walks will probably dry up.
I’m a believer that this works the other way around too, and that although a hitter can’t really improve his plate discipline per se, the ability to hit for power will cause pitchers to pitch around someone — and this can lead to a better BB:K ratio as one’s career goes on. Howard is a pretty good example of this, as MikeE alluded to above, and I hope that this is the case for someone like Michael Taylor in the Phillies’ system: great raw power and a decent (if not stellar) batting eye that will hopefully “improve,” so to speak, as pitchers start to fear his power.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 30, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It has been shown
that hitters almost always lose power and gain OBP as they age. OBP is an “old player’s skill.” Speed and power are “young player skills.” Players who only show old players skills when theyre young overwhelmingly end up having short careers.
Obviously he’s not so old its unthinkable he’d add power… its possible. I was talking about over a MLB career above, not minor league career. But unless there is a reason like “He’s 6’5 180 and still growing into his body” or “he had an inside out swing that they fixed” you really dont see it happen that much. When we see guys add power its usually we’re talking about doubles hitters who already have swings that generate plenty of backspin and loft and just dont know how to look for/hit HRs. Those types add power in the form of HRs. Still, those types typically show good ISOs or other indicators that they might hit for power at some point. Marson really doesnt give a statistical analyst OR a scout any reasons to think he will hit for power down the line.
Frankly, it would be better if he was hitting for power and didnt have a patient approach. Those guys are more likely to develop a patient approach than the other way around. I have a lot more faith Mike Taylor will become a more patient hitter.
by alskor on Oct 30, 2025 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disclaimer: I know very little about prospects, scouting, projecting players—any of that.
However, I’ve read (and noticed for myself) the interesting parallel between Marson’s age 22 season in AA and Russell Martin’s.
Martin: .311/.430/.423 15.4% BB 13.7% K .112 ISO .356 BABIP
Marson: .314/.433/.416 17.6% BB 17.6% K .102 ISO .389 BABIP
They’re also both pronounced ground ball hitters—Marson’s rate was pretty extreme this year, but I don’t see why that couldn’t be a fluke. They’re also about the same size, with Martin being stockier and Marson taller, though Marson has time.
(all info from firstinning,com)
OK, so I understand Martin is one of the better catchers in the league, brings skills to the table Marson doesn’t, and had a better track record heading into AA. Could someone answer for me what separates them, and makes Marson less likely to develop the power Martin has, or had before the 2nd half of this year? I’m not trying to say Marson will become Martin or anything radical, I’m just curious, considering the parallel, and I’m an utter noob in this realm.
by bugbear on Oct 30, 2025 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BABIP
Even with Martin’s high BABIP that season, that’s still a .033 point difference. Adjust them so they’re both at .356 BABIP and what do you have? A AA catcher hitting around .275 with no power. That’s not exactly the same.
by Lunkwill Fook on Oct 31, 2025 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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