Bumgarner was in Low-A
Porcello was in High-A

Pretty wide gap in level of competition - comparing numbers directly like you have is basically fruitless.

Another component to Porcello’s leash was pitching to contact and he passed that test with flying colors with his 61% GB rate and ridiculously low LD rate, where Bumgarner had a very poor GB rate and less than stellar LD rate which doesn’t bode well for a pitcher with questionable secondary stuff. Porcello does have secondary stuff - even with his curve on the shelf. I love Bumgarner, but Mike Pelfrey comes to mind. Again, numbers at the lower levels give way more significantly to scouting than they do as they progress to the upper levels.

Personally, I have him in my top 8, the second best pitcher to Price. I think you’ll see most of the major publications do the same.

I agree with the Porcello doubts. As i said in another thread, if the reports that he could not throw is curveball by Tigers orders, than his stats are shocking, however if that is not the case here is a comparison for you.

Pitcher A: Born 11/1988, 13 Wins 4 Loses, 2.79 ERA, 145 IP, 124K/34BB, 1.09 WHIP, 1.02 GO/AO
Pitcher B: Born 12/1988, 8 Wins 6 Loses, 2.66 ERA, 125 IP, 72K/33BB, 1.19 WHIP, 2.48 GO/AO
Pitcher A: Pre All-Star 3.29 ERA, 79.1 IP, 65K/25BB, 1.26 WHIP
Pitcher B: Pre All-Star 2.94 ERA, 67.1 IP, 41K/19BB, 1.27 WHIP
Pitcher A: Post All-Star 2.18 ERA, 66IP, 59K/9BB, .89 WHIP
Pitcher B: Post All-Star 2.34 ERA, 57.2 IP, 31K/14BB 1.09 WHIP
Pitcher A is in a High-A Hitters League
Pitcher B is in a High-A Pitcher League

Pitcher A is Alderson, while Pitcher B is Porcello
I am not saying that Alderson is underrated- however i think based on production Porcello maybe overrated.

what Rasmus did in 2007 combined with scouts’ evaluations suggest he’s a special talent close to the majors. He had a bad half-season that ended in injury, and when he checks in to begin next year he’ll be a 22-year-old plus defensive CF who’s dominated offensively at every level through Double-A. That’s a special prospect.

yes, lars is a better prospect than tabata or hicks or jackson, but i think you’ve left off a trio of very capable SSs. i’ll give you two examples of guys who, like schafer, i traded up to draft. maybe i’m biased, but i think both players are damn good bets to be above average starters within 2 years.

todd frazier. most people project him to play LF or 3B at the major league level, but for about the last 2 months of the season, at class A+ sarasota, he played pretty adequate defense at SS; b-ref has him at a .980 fielding % (a shit stat, i know) in that level. if he can do near that next year, in AA, at SS, i don’t think anyone will still be calling to move him off the position

as for his bat, sarasota is a piss poor hitting environment in a piss poor hitting league. according to minorleaguesplits’ MLE calculator, this is what it says when translating frazier’s sarasota performance to a neutral CAL league environment:

the other player i want to mention is jason donald. i know that he’s not a flashy shiny new prospect, but he was team USA’s best player in the olympics, and he hit .307/.391/.497 in AA as a 23 year old. even if you adjust his line .030/.040/.050, he’s still a damn good offensive producer, whether he sticks at 2B, 3B, or SS.

i understand why neither player has gotten the hype behind them, but when anyone considers jose tabata, a LF with no power to be a better prospect than either of these two flat out hitters, and it’s not just you, i find myself laughing.

is completely overrated, but he was top 20 last year and if you put all of the tools busts from fmart to tabata on this list then this premium potential gold glover should be on there too…i am the biggest fmart hater in the world, but you can’t tell me andrus has really done worse, at least he can steal a ton of bases

I’d actually put him squarely in the group with Bowden and Hellickson. Or perhaps more precisely, I’d say I can’t find a meaningful separation among the three. In terms of age, stats, and the different plusses and minuses of their scouting reports, I think we need at least another year to figure out whether any of these guys are a neck above the other.

Take look post ASB.

He’s already ripping up pitchers in winterball.

Both pitchers struck out about 10 per 9 innings this year. Anderson had many FEWER walks. Cahill’s advantage is in groundball:flyball ratio, where he had a ratio of about 2:1 and Anderson was about 1.5:1.

Anderson was pitching injured for a couple starts for Stockton in which he was hit hard which drove his numbers way down. If you take away those starts, his numbers are much, much better. He missed some starts afterwards and thats when it was revealed that he had actually been pitching injured. I had the pleasure or watching both of these guys a few times in Stockton, and would honestly say that right now they are pretty close, and in the long run I think there is a decent chance Anderson ends up the better pitcher. Either way, I think they both have bright futures in Oaklands rotation.

One game in particular he gave up 8 hits and 8 runs in 1/3 of an inning. Subtract out those three starts (take my word on this one, I’ve already tried doing this) and he was as dominant as Cahill was.

His ERA from the California League is not representative of his actual talent level.

That’s the point. There is no such thing as a “near lock ace.”

A little bit off topic here, but you did bring him up, what do you think of Hughes going forward into 2009?

…is that I’m just not that high on him.

I can see Frank Thomas-lite in Snider.

.220/.290/.364. From AA.

Now, he did a lot better in AAA and in the majors. Small sample size.

I guess I am being too harsh. Looks like he improved as he advanced. But he Ks an awful lot. I doubt he ever comes close to Frank Thomas. Adam Dunn. Maybe.

I am just talking about next year as far as batting .220. Kind of a worst case scenario I guess. But he did only bat .262 in AA. 20 or not, I don’t see him busting out with a big rookie year next year.

I prefer Holland, Chacin, Hanson and Feliz all to Tillman, Arrieta and Zimmerman. But we can all quibble about lists. it is a pretty good one.

I must have read too many Dwey posts, but i also prefer Holland to Snider.

Now watch holland go 6-9 with a 5 era in AAA next year, when he goes off the ’roids. Just kidding. I hope.

Take a look at Jackson’s park-neutral and luck-neutral career numbers.

2005 NYY/RK 0.267 0.341 0.354 0.695
2006 NYY/A 0.257 0.338 0.342 0.680
2007 TOT 0.260 0.328 0.415 0.743
2007 NYY/A 0.238 0.315 0.359 0.674
2007 NYY/A+ 0.283 0.343 0.488 0.831
2007 NYY/AA 0.257 0.297 0.286 0.583
2008 NYY/AA 0.269 0.340 0.410 0.750

Now, let’s look at the GB/LD/FB splits.

2005 NYY/RK 44.10% 10.30% 44.10% 9.50%
2006 NYY/A 45.40% 19.80% 34.50% 10.40%
2007 TOTAL 46.80% 11.40% 41.50% 8.70%
2007 NYY/A 46.60% 10.20% 42.60% 9.70%
2007 NYY/A+ 48.30% 11.00% 40.70% 7.40%
2007 NYY/AA 38.50% 23.10% 38.50% 12.50%
2008 NYY/AA 45.70% 13.50% 40.60% 7.10%
CAREER 45.80% 14.40% 39.50% 8.80%

One of these things is not like the others. You’re willing to give him top 25 status because of average tools and, outside of 250 at-bats over a year ago, average production? And you don’t see anything wrong with that?

F-Mart and Jackson, Tabata had a few nice ABs after he was traded, good for him, however he still suffers the make up problems and the power question that he did last season…AND he had worse stats to go with them. I can’t put him top 50 anymore. Fernando Martinez did no where near well enough in AA, especially since he repeated it. Jackson’s at least produced at every level and progressed at a normal rate. Not to mention on your “park and luck neutral results” that the Yankees parks through AA are pitchers parks.

As to Angel, well he hasn’t hit as well as Montero, and he moved positions before Montero…So he has to be better than he is! Your prediction about his crash is based on what? That one’s inexcusable.

McCutchen…come on, I can’t have him that high when he can’t slug over .400.

Netfali, he has actually played very very well

Tabata had the same power issues, the same make up issues, and all the questions that he had last season and the end of this season. Add worse stats, and I can’t justify him on the list. F-Mart did reasonably okay for repeating AA ball, whereas Jackson’s progressed in a normal fashion and held his own at each level and even played well at each level. Also the Yankees’ parks up to AA are known as pitcher’s parks. They depress his stats a bit.

Angel has already had to move defensive positions, hit nowhere near as well as Montero has…so clearly that’s enough reason for me to say that he’s better. Come on, that’s just not smart. He may have the higher ceiling, and even that’s debatable, but Dellin Betances has a higher ceiling than most of the players on this list…but there’s no good reason to put him that high because he hasn’t shown stud results at any level…I feel the same way about Angel now that he hasn’t the results that match the tools, and he’s suffered several set backs. I still think he can be very good, but I don’t see a good reason to put him this high.

McCutchen, he hasn’t slugged over .400 since 2006. That’s what we stat heads like to describe as putrid.

Netflati, he showed the velocity and the results at a higher level of ball than Porcello…he’s better than he is. Although nitpicking is somewhat accurate. Gamel? What can I say, I love a power bat like that.