the rise of trevor cahill

by Asfan4ever723 on May 4, 2025 12:40 PM EDT

with 48 k's, Cahill leads the California League, and all of professional baseball in Ks. A 48:7 SO:BB ratio and 0.81 WHIP among the best in the league. With 0 home runs through 36.0 innings, the4th most homer less innings streak in the minors. He was labeled w/ having less upside, but more polish compared to his other starters like Hrod and DLS. But IMO has surpassed them.I'll also include James Simmons who's been good, 07 1st rd pick, now back to full time starting in AA. Great control, may be a fast track type if they choose. i know this is best case scenario but cahill/simmons sort of remind me of hughes/kennedy. now A's only have to find their version of joba throwing high 90's gas...DLS? Hrod? Italiano?

now if they only could get lucky w/ 1 or 2 from anderson/gio/mazzaro/leon/banwart etc

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Trevor%20Cahill&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502239

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=James%20Simmons&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519285

Part 1 of Scout's interview with new coach Gil Patterson:

"[Brett] Anderson, of course, is left-handed and he just knows what he is doing. He can sink the ball. He’s got a good change-up and a curveball and he’s got a slider. He can get his pitches in on the hitters and he does all of the things that you would want a pitcher to do. Cahill has got a sinker that is just – it’s probably too much, I don’t want to say pressure, but you can talk about a sinker like Brandon Webb’s and, of course, I had Roy Halladay for the three or four years that I was in Toronto in the big leagues. I’m not sure that Cahill would have to take much of a back seat to those sinkers. He’s just a tremendous competitor and warrior and can sink the ball. [Sunday] he struck-out 12 guys in seven innings of work, so he has that ability."

From BP's Monday Ten Pack:

" Trevor Cahill, RHP, High-A Stockton (A’s)
Cahill closed out his impressive full-season debut last year with a very strong finish, as he put up a 0.74 ERA in his last six starts with twice as many strikeouts (44) as hits allowed (20) in 36 2/3 innings. Picking up where he left off despite advancing to a much tougher league, Cahill whiffed a season-high 12 on Sunday while allowing just one unearned run over seven innings. Now with a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, only 20 hits allowed, and a fantastic 39-to-5 K/BB ratio, Cahill is bucking for a promotion to Double-A by midseason (if not sooner), and Oakland's rebuilding process continues to accelerate at a breakneck pace."

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jawdropping

I’ve never seen a pitcher strike out that many people while also having a 70% groundball rate.

The guy has given 3 extra base hits 36 innings, which means he’s got an OPS against of .381.

by Galt on May 4, 2025 1:11 PM EDT 0 recs

I would have to think

that the combination of the K-rate, BB-rate, and GB-rate give him the best component stats in the entire minor leagues so far this year, and it’s probably not even close. Jaw-dropping is right.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on May 4, 2025 1:47 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm usually very skeptical of pitchers

with crazy K/BB ratios. Usually it’s a bad sign as strange as that may seem.

by pedrophile on May 4, 2025 5:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Really?

I’m curious how this could be construed as a bad sign. Are you referring to specific prospects with crazy K/BB ratios that didn’t pan out or something?

by jibs on May 4, 2025 6:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

The list is very long

These cases, especially in the lower levels, are a sign of a pitcher with an advanced knowledge of pitching that can throw multiple breaking pitches and locate everything.

by pedrophile on May 4, 2025 8:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hear you

I think you raise a very good point. Former Braves/Current A’s prospect Jamie Richmond immediately springs to mind. In 2006 Richmond posted a 52 K/4 BB line in 67 Appy level innings. The knock on Richmond, even then, was his stuff was very ordinary. That’s a scouting report I’ve seen for a lot of minor league pitchers with similiar statistical profiles.

The difference between Cahill and those guys is the fact that the scouting reports I’ve seen all grade his stuff as at least above average with some room for projection. In 2007 BA was calling his curveball a plus-plus pitch and I don’t recall ever reading about the Jamie Richmonds’ of the minor league world as having plus-anything.

One thing this article didn’t mention was that Cahill has plunked 7 guys in his 36+ IP. It’s almost as if he’d rather hit a batter then give up a walk! One thing’s for certain, if Cahill keeps pitching like this through May he’ll be experiencing a Texas summer come June. Then we’ll really see what the A’s have on their hands.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 4, 2025 9:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cahill

I know very little about him. I am also very skeptical of scouting reports talking plus plus offspeed pitches in the lower levels. So many guys have great offspeed when hitters chase it out of the zone but when they are forced to keep it in the zone and also throw it in non 0-2 counts it’s a different story.

Having said all that Cahill could totally be the exception. He definitely should be up in AA soon and then it will be nice to see what happens.

by pedrophile on May 4, 2025 11:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yep

I’m inclined to agree. Also, how many righties have avg velocity but plus-plus offspeed pitches. I can only think of a handful…

by Dfarth on May 4, 2025 11:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

changeup?

Unless it’s a change-up I can’t think of any.

by pedrophile on May 4, 2025 11:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah a few Change-Ups....

I immediately thought of Pedro…I haven’t watched him enough in the past year or two to know if I would qualify his breaking stuff as plus-plus…

He’s literally the only righty that came to my mind though…

by Dfarth on May 5, 2025 3:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Shields

has a plus changeup with only average velocity.

Pedro had a plus plus change-up when he was throwing 90. Not sure what he’s bringing now.

by pedrophile on May 5, 2025 7:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

Edwar Ramirez

Tons of K’s, very few BB. We’ll see if he can adapt to the majors, but it hasn’t been too good so far, no matter what his minor league numbers say.

by sabernar on May 6, 2025 5:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Mussina?

If the reports that have Cahill in the low-90’s are true then that sounds about right for Mussina as I remember him with the O’s. Plus-plus curve I’d say.

And though it’s different because he was a reliever (in the incarnation I knew), I’d rate Dennis Eckersley’s slider as plus-plus too.

Your point is well taken, and I agree it’s something on a scouting report that has to be viewed skeptically. I just thought I’d mention those names.

by D O on May 5, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Average velocity?

Again, citing BA 2007 they had his fastball sitting 92-94. That’s above average velocity.

Jump to BA 2008. They have his fastball at 88-92 but with lots of sink. Have the A’s asked Cahill to switch from a 4-seam to a 2-seam fastball? It certainly fits with the organizational philosophy. I’ve seen 1 A’s coach compare Cahill’s sinker to Halladay and Webb. Feel free to roll your eyes on that one, I did! Or the drop invelocity could be due to more looks at Cahill.

So call it solid-average velocity with (dare I say it) plus sink and he can control two breaking balls and a change-up… it just reinforces what I said earlier: He’s pitching like he wants a bigger challenge. At this rate he’s in Midland come June.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on May 5, 2025 1:23 AM EDT up 0 recs

88-92

Is avg velocity - I don’t care how many seams he’s gripping. Actually, it’s probably borderline below avg…

by Dfarth on May 5, 2025 3:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

Blanton

throws a 93-95 MPH four-seam fastball… but he’s thought of as a pitcher with mediocre velocity because it’s only about 20% of the fastballs he throws. His 2-seam fastball is 89-91.

A drop of 3 or 4 MPH going from 4-seam to 2-seam is quite normal.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on May 5, 2025 11:08 AM EDT up 0 recs

I imagine

That this same comment could be said of the vast majority of MLB pitchers…

Almost all starters use a lot of 2-seamers and almost all of them could crank it up to 94 if they tried. The fact is that peak velocity is almost worthless…

by Dfarth on May 5, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't think "almost all starters use a lot of 2-seamers"

since the 4-seam fastball is used much more frequently/by everybody.

http://bocropleasestopswingingatbadpitches.blogspot.com/

by thejd44 on May 6, 2025 12:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re:

People are so caught up in defining pitches. The fact is that nearly every pitcher in the majors tries to sink or cut his fastball in one way or another. Define it how you want, most are not going for peak velocity on every pitch - because it is too straight - and most could hit 94 if they wanted.

by Dfarth on May 6, 2025 7:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

94

I’ve also seen that he through 94 in his senior year of high school. I’d find it odd for him to lose 2-3 MPH in two years as he’s matured. Of course, it’s also odd to gain 12 MPH in an offseason.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491308&vkey=draft2006&fext=.jsp

by Galt on May 5, 2025 10:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

Lots of Pitchers lose

Velocity over time Esp when they come out of HS because the seasons are longer or they need better control Boof Bonser I know they talked about him throwing 96 in HS and first season of proball but he’s at 92 maybe 93 now.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on May 5, 2025 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

well

its not like he is 22 and doing it…as a 20 year old, it is much more impressive..the list is also long of good pitchers who dominate and then pitch well in AA. to think that his sinker is this good now, and that he is only beginning to figure out how to throw it could be very special.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2025 5:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Anyone know why FDLS hasn't pitched in quite a while?

by Dfarth on May 4, 2025 6:39 PM EDT 0 recs

Elbow

He has been shutdown due to elbow soreness.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on May 4, 2025 6:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Crap

That’s never good

by Dfarth on May 4, 2025 6:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

They say only shut down for a week..

but who knows.

When will then be now? Soon.

by Syphon on May 4, 2025 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

I love Cahill as I’ve mentioned before, but I am starting to worry that the combination of being underrated for a while and SNTS is going to actually lead to him being OVERRATED by the statistically inclined.

He does a lot of things that you love to see in a young pitcher. He throws strikes, he’s got a good sinker to keep the ball on the ground, good breaking stuff. He’s got the athleticism and the build to stave off injury and maintain his present level of stuff. He’s also just a good, smart kid, the sort of guy that you can expect to dedicate himself to getting better and to pitch beyond what you might think he’s capable of.

So yes, he’s really good. But he’s not in the truly elite tier of pitching prospects, at least not yet - he doesn’t have THAT kind of stuff, and we have to wait and see if the things he’s doing to get guys out at lower levels translate to higher levels.

by mrkupe on May 5, 2025 12:59 PM EDT 0 recs

yeah i agree

but, with most sinker ballers, they dont develop till later…becuase that is not an easy pitch to throw well as a young player..so the fact that he is doing it nowis very impressive.

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2025 5:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Where is Hellickson in this debate?

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2025 4:34 PM EDT 0 recs

helli scouting report

i heard he has command of a 93-95 FB and working curve and change. has anyone heard different?

by jsmall404 on May 5, 2025 5:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Doesn't work there

He works more in the 91-93 range can dial it up to 95. His curve is solid and so is his change, dead on there. His command is very good. Should be plus command by the time he makes it, which would make him a very good pitcher.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 5, 2025 7:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

also throws a slider now according to the audio in his start the other day

by Bravesin07 on May 5, 2025 7:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hellickson>Cahill

by fartballs on May 6, 2025 12:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

says you,

Hellickson’s momma, and nobody else.

by Galt on May 6, 2025 12:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

haha

...and Braves if that makes you feel better. :p

I think they both are looking very strong so far this year. PP just put out their updated top 25 and Cahill is 18th with Cueto and Joba set to graduate soon while their podcast said Hellickson might be on the back end of the 50.

by jfish26101 on May 6, 2025 12:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

i dont see that..

their ability, projectablity, and stats thus far are that far apart (18 v. 50)

if cahill is gonna go with his sinker, his isnt going to carry his K totals as he progresses.

by jsmall404 on May 6, 2025 5:44 PM EDT 0 recs

on cahill

Mike (Utica): Jeremy Hellickson or Trevor Cahill? Which pitcher would you pick?

Christina Kahrl: While Hellickson’s numbers are surreal, I’ll take Cahill, understanding that I’m also a bit biased.

Baseball America one of their non-top 100 prospects Amazing Aprils

“He has a devastating sinker that’s natural for him,” A’s director of player personnel Billy Owens said. “It’s in the low-90s, gets a lot of groundballs. It’s unusual in that he’s a ground ball guy but he can also get strikeouts with his knuckle-curve and his slider. He lengthened his arm this year, so he’s throwing four-seam fastballs now more than last year, and he tops out at 93 (mph).
Cahill’s fastball sits in the low 90s with the potential for more velocity out of his 6-foot-3, 211-pound frame. He also has an outstanding curveball and an improving changeup.

by Asfan4ever723 on May 9, 2025 6:14 PM EDT 0 recs