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Controversial Prospect: Tyler Robertson

Here is the first of a series of posts about Controversial Prospects who generate different opinions from different analysts.

Today we have Tyler Robertson of the Minnesota Twins. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2008 Baseball Prospect Book and personally rank him as the best current Twins prospects. Others disagree.

Baseball America reportedly ranks him as the Twins fourth-best prospect behind Nick Blackburn, Joe Benson, and Wilson Ramos.

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus also ranks him at fourth, behind Ben Revere, Anthony Swarzak, and Jeff Manship.

My current ratings for the Twins have Robertson at first, with the top five looking like this: Robertson, Swarzak, Revere, Manship, Glen Perkins. I suspect I'm higher on him than anyone else.

So what gives? Why does Robertson draw such mixed reviews? The problem isn't his statistics: he went 9-5, 2.29 with a 123/33 K/BB ratio in 103 innings. He allowed 87 hits and a .226 average against. He gave up just three homers and posted a 2.00 GO/AO ratio. He was 19 years old in a full-season league. Midwest League or not, those are strong numbers without any holes that I can see. Everything was above average or better. He's a big guy at 6-5, 220 pounds and still has some physical projectability.

The problem is the mixed scouting reports. Baseball America says his fastball was just 87-90 last year. He threw 90-92 in high school. Midwest League observers I spoke with say he was anywhere in the 88-92 range last year, which makes the BA numbers sound a bit pessimistic; I guess our sources are a bit different. He has good breaking stuff and throws strikes. The main bugaboo for scouts is his delivery, which is stiff, looks funny, and gives rise to fear about injuries. He's smoothed it out a bit, but given that he repeats it well, is his injury risk really any higher than it is for any other pitcher his age? I'm not convinced of that.

For me, Robertson is a low-end Grade B+ /borderline Grade B prospect based on his performance, his youth, and the fact that I think the delivery issue is a bit overblown. I considered moving him to regular Grade B in my final grade changes, but decided to stick with my original instincts. As for his rating in the Twins system, for me he is very close to Swarzak (who almost got a Grade B+). Revere could end up as a Grade B+ very soon and could push ahead of both of them if he continues to hit.

In any event, Robertson as a Grade B+ is an aggressive rating, but it's a risk I am comfortable taking.

Tomorrow we will discuss Jed Lowrie.

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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To me at least
the most underrated prospect in baseball right now.  The guy really has more stuff than anyone gives him credit for (and I did get to see him at Beloit last year).  Combined with his age and results I don't see why anyone wouldn't have him at 1 or 1a (along with swarzak) when grading out the twins system.  A young lefty starter who strikes out nearly 11 per 9.  With acceptable control, and a great attitude.  I don't see why Andy Pettitte isn't his ceiling?
I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 23, 2026 4:53 PM EST   0 recs

Andy Pettitte
wasn't exactly an awsome prospect though.

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2026 1:16 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Do you think?
that is more of a reflection of how in the early 90's prospecting was more of a scout driven affair and less of a analytical game.  Pettitte put up some really good numbers but kinda came out of nowhere.
I am just now reaching the age of Dusty Baker prospectdum. maybe i should give Krivsky a call

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 24, 2026 11:21 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I thought...
the problem was that although he has a nasty slider,  his fastball is so subpar that the scouts think he wont fool advanced hitters with better approaches (READ: guys who can lay off the slider). The consensus seems to be that he is a guy who is a good bet to get exposed when he reaches AA or even high A.

I like Robertson a lot, though. Way more than KG and BP, but less than John.

by alskor on Jan 23, 2026 7:05 PM EST   0 recs

Love this new feature
It's always nice to know WHY people seem to be differing in their ratings.
Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 23, 2026 8:20 PM EST   0 recs

I am curious...
as to why John ranks Robertson ahead of Swarzak. To put it more eloquently; what advantages does Robertson have that make him a better prospect at this point than Swarzak? Or, what doesn't Swarzak do that makes him a slightly inferior prospect?

by ajake57 on Jan 23, 2026 10:09 PM EST   0 recs

Ben Revere
also seem to be a controversial guy...

Carlos Gomez gave the twins a ton of flak in his segament in Hardballtimes for drafting him in the first round. he thinks the guy isn't going to hit for ANY power without a pretty significant swing adjustment. and while he did do well in rookie ball he didn't hit one out. which kinda confirm the notion that he has no power. if he has no power that makes him Jason Tyner / Juan Pierre / Brett Gardner / Joey Gathright ... not exactly a B prospect is it.

by RollingWave on Jan 24, 2026 1:20 AM EST   0 recs

Pierre
If he can get on base like Pierre did early on in his career, then Revere would in fact be a solid "B" prospect.  But the key is making sure he can get on base at a 40% clip so he can use his speed to his advantage.  

by guru4u on Jan 24, 2026 11:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Revere
Jason Tyner / Juan Pierre / Brett Gardner / Joey Gathright

One of these things is not like the others.

If Revere turns out to be Pierre it will have been a brilliant pick by the Twins.  (despite Pierre's drawbacks)

Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. George Carlin

by GregJP on Jan 24, 2026 3:48 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Out of hs...
What was his scouting report out of high school?

Also at that height, is it possible he could pick up a few mph on his fastball?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 24, 2026 10:40 AM EST   0 recs

Height
has nothing to do with velocity.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 24, 2026 11:45 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Size matters
It is easier to create leverage, and thus velocity, if you have a big frame. No?
cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 24, 2026 1:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

"Easier" in terms of potential energy
or those forces created using gravity down the mound.  But just because a pitcher is taller doesn't mean he creates more potential energy.  Nolan Ryan and Roy Oswalt create more potential energy than Randy Johnson.

More important than that, potential energy is the least, percentage-wise, of the energies (potential, kinetic or linear and rotational) that create velocity.

I am of the belief that for the most part bigger pitchers are more capable of withstanding the forces involved in pitching and thus are less prone to injury (not a view shared by everyone) but I don't believe that taller pitchers inherently are capable of throwing harder.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 24, 2026 2:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

To be constructive
and not just a thread basher, a drop in velocity is always a red flag for me that there is a shoulder problem that he may not even know about or feel.  I don't know how accurate the reports are about his fluctuation are and I haven't been able to get a good video of him to know what to think.
Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Jan 24, 2026 2:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I have not seen him pitch...
but based purely on the numbers, he comes out as the 24th-best SP in the minors from 2007.  And that's pre-screening, so some guys ahead of him will fall after I weed out the "7 starts in rookie ball" types.

My system shows: Joba, Hughes, Rohrbough, Bucholz, Kershaw, McGee, Fautino De Los Santos, Kennedy, Cahill, Vanden Hurk, Neftali Feliz (possibly - only short-season data), Gio, Scherzer, Whelan (he's not really going to start, is he?)

Anyway, that makes him 15th-best, just based on numbers.  The knocks on his "stuff" and "delivery" would obviously knock him down a little bit, but he's gotten it done 2 years in a row now.

by BobbyMac on Jan 24, 2026 2:14 PM EST   0 recs

Velocity
I don't know how reliable gun reports are. Was his high-school gun a fast gun? Was the BA gun a slow gun? Even in the majors, we see wild fluctuations in radar readings from start to start. I don't think it's because of actual velocity. The fluctuations are more often in the guns.
cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 25, 2026 11:06 AM EST   0 recs

yeah
measurement error.  Garbage in, garbage out.  How do they even calibrate those things?
gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Jan 25, 2026 7:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Tuning fork
IIRC, the guns come with a tuning fork for calibration, now how often those gages are actually R&R'd is a better question.

by cooper7d7 on Jan 29, 2026 10:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

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