Thinking about Chase Headley
First, the book comment:
Headley is hitting .365/.448/.617 so far for Double-A San Antonio, with 10 doubles and five homers, 16 walks and 25 strikeouts in 115 at-bats. He's maintained the excellent strike zone judgment mentioned in the book comment, while adding additional pop. He's been particularly hot lately, hitting .389 in his last 10 games.
His statistical splits are interesting: he's hitting .402/.490/.671 against righthanders but .273/.333/.485 against lefties. His home/road split is strong: .306/.382/.531 at home, but .409/.494/.682 in the friendly confines of the Texas League road parks. He ranks second overall in the league in OPS, second in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and second in slugging percentage.
Well, what do we make of all this? Is it sustainable? I liked Headley going into the season but while I thought he would do well, I didn't think he'd do this. He still has time to cool down, and it's hard to hit .365 all year, even in the Texas League. But hell, even if he loses 30 points off everything as the season progresses that would still give him an OPS close to 1.000. There are no holes in the numbers indicating that it's a fluke, no poor BB/K/AB ratio or anything like that. Good luck has no doubt been on his side to some extent, but there's little question that he's hitting genuinely well.
I'd rate his rating to Grade B+ at this point. I really hope to see him in action later this month or in June to make an in-person assessment.