Poll Question: Betances vs. Cosart vs. Guerrieri

by John Sickels on Jan 16, 2026 11:10 AM EST

ST PETERSBURG, FL - SEPTEMBER 28: Pitcher Dellin Betances #68 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the game at Tropicana Field on September 28, 2025 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

I asked a poll question a few days ago about seven young pitchers.

I promised to revisit this with a runoff after we had the preliminary results, so here goes. Who is the best prospect: Dellin Betances of the New York Yankees, Jarred Cosart of the Houston Astros, or Taylor Guerrieri of the Tampa Bay Rays?

Vote and Discuss!

In my view, Guerrieri has the highest upside of the trio, but he is also the furthest away and has the most risk since he hasn't even pitched professionally yet. Betances and Cosart are really close in my mind. Cosart has terrific stuff, but i'm not enamored of his arm action or his oddly low strikeout rate in Double-A. Betances has fine stuff himself and a larger track record at higher levels, but his command can be quite spotty. This may be a minority view, but it would not surprise me at all if both Betances and Cosart end up as relievers in the long run.

(NOTE: we've sure talked about Yankees prospects a lot lately, but I promise this is not a trend. I will start revising the Top 20 lists tomorrow and there will be plenty of upcoming discussion about all organizations).

Poll

Betances, Cosart, or Guerrieri?

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Read More: Dellin Betances (P - NYY), New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros

Comments

Really Hard Comparison

Guerreri is so far away, has no track record - isn’t it premature to be comparing him to upper minors pitchers? I guarantee if this question was asked at different points last season (beginning of last season, after the Futures Game last season) the answers would have been wildly different.

by delmonfan on Jan 16, 2026 11:24 AM EST reply actions

It's very close between Cosart and Betances

I don’t feel Guerrieri is in the same range. I think he’s got that new prospect shine right now so some people are buying into him due to novelty. I think his ceiling is actually similar to Cosart/Betances, but his floor is even lower because we haven’t seen him have any success in pro ball while Cosart and Betances have at least held their own in the upper minors.

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by OremLK on Jan 16, 2026 11:35 AM EST reply actions

Give me Guerreri and Tampa's track record of developing young pitching talent.

Hellickson, Price, Moore. Tampa just knows who to take and how to develope high ceiling arms.

by johnorpheus on Jan 16, 2026 11:51 AM EST reply actions

But that really doesn't affect his current prosect status

I understand it might affect his future results, but if you had a random organization with all sorts of pitching needs, which one of the three would you pick? If Guerrieri was in an organization you think is the worst at developing high ceiling arms, his prospect status should be unchanged.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 16, 2026 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

But shouldn't we factor probability in too his current status?

I feel his probablity of becoming a front of the rotation guy is greatly increased with Tampa. If he were a Rockie’s prospect, for example, I would be much lower on him, even though he is the exact same guy right now, because of the Rockie’s hatchet job with Tyler Matzek.

by johnorpheus on Jan 16, 2026 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

*into

by johnorpheus on Jan 16, 2026 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

Organization does matter

I seriously downgrade any SP in the Pirates organization. Look at the past decade… take Taillon for example - nice first year. They have taken a lot of great prospects and managed to run them into the ground. Also if you are a SP and in the Tigers organization you have the deck stacked against you. Verlander is the obvious counterexample but he was a college guy. He was fortunate enough to spend a short enough time in their MiLB organization to get ruined. I think you need to consider the organization - it is just as important as any other part of the package.

by huztler on Jan 16, 2026 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Totally agree on the Tigers.

Watch Jacob Turner turn into a career back-of-the-rotation guy when he should have been a stud ace due to lack of development. Awful how they handled Porcello, telling him to throw his sinker to get him to the Show ASAP instead of developing a potential monster arsenal. But Turner will hurt the most bc I’m from St. Louis and remember how hyped he was.

The best comparison for me will be Turner v. Shelby Miller. Both very similar out of high school, with Turner arguably the better prospect (Turner threw in high 90s I believe while Miller was more mid 90s). In a few years Miller may be a legit ace while Turner may still be struggling to develop.

by johnorpheus on Jan 16, 2026 6:56 PM EST up reply actions

+1

I do allow parent organizations to sway my view of prospects. Give me the exact same prospect, but one is a Tampa prospect and the other belongs to Baltimore (or Pittsburgh, or either NY organization, or a couple other organizations), and I will choose the Tampa prospect over the other guy…. even if they are exactly the same.

When those other teams can develop major league players, then I will start believing they are capable of doing so. But until then, they have proven that they can turn a Top Prospect into a Failed Prospect.

by Boxkutter on Jan 16, 2026 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

meh?

Aside from last years walk issues, what’s meh about..

9.8 K/9, .60 HR/9, .216 BAvs at AA?

Walks and health are an absolute concern but people miss the fact that for his career he’s K’d about 10 per 9 IP and consistently allows fewer hits than IP.

by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 16, 2026 10:42 PM EST up reply actions

i wouldn't take it seriously

he called the red sox vs yankees threads moronic and has said issues about ltierally every yankees prospect as if there were such thing as a perfect prospect.

by The Cole Train on Jan 17, 2026 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

Guerreri

The question from the earlier thread:

Of the following Grade B pitching prospects, which one is the best overall prospect? Consider everything, including upside/ceiling, safety, closeness to the majors, etc.

Personally, I don’t think closeness to the majors should have much weight and if it is even in the discussion then I don’t see why the organization’s track record with those players can’t be in the discussion (as someone above suggested).

So it comes down to ceiling/floor and safety for me and I think Guerreri is the best of this group. He has sick stuff, a good arm, no significant injury history (to my knowledge), and therefore is the most likely to stick as a SP in my opinion (which is HUGE in this discussion). That isn’t to say Cosart/Betances aren’t good prospects but I think they both have considerable risk. Sure Guerreri does too because he is so far away but it is a very different risk and one I would rather take at this point.

by jfish26101 on Jan 16, 2026 12:21 PM EST reply actions

Cosart's k%

John, you write :“Cosart has terrific stuff.” Could you explain how, despite his stuff, he only managed a k% of 16.8 % in High-A ?(That’s not meant as snark, I’m really curious, because I haven’ t seen him this year.

by mswift on Jan 16, 2026 12:23 PM EST reply actions

that's according to scouts

part of the reason i have him as a Grade B instead of a B+ and am fairly cautious in my assessment of him is because the K-rates do not match the scouting reports

by John Sickels on Jan 16, 2026 12:44 PM EST up reply actions

I did read somewhere he was working on hitting the bottom of the zone consistently

And generating groundballs. That could be part of why he’s not striking out that many batters right now.

His secondary stuff is reportedly inconsistent too, though.

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by OremLK on Jan 16, 2026 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Guerrieri vs Betances/Cosart

I see Betances and Cosart as RP’s. I’d give the edge to Guerrieri because he has the best chance to be a SP even with all the things that could go wrong for a pitcher out of HS. I guess this is more about by lack of confidence in Betances and Cosart than my optimism for Guerrieri.

by ROBERTS04 on Jan 16, 2026 12:24 PM EST reply actions

Cosart

I was able to watch Cosart pitch with the Corpus Christi Hooks last August. He sat at 95-97 the first 5 innings, and hit 100 on the stadium gun two or three times. If memory serves, he only struck out 5 in 6 innings, but he generated tons of groundballs.

His strikeout rate is frustratingly low for a guy who throws so hard, but I feel he still has a higher ceiling than Betances. I don’t know what to think about Guerrieri yet, though, since there’s no pro data.

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by Stupendous Man on Jan 16, 2026 1:22 PM EST reply actions

I have to disagree with you

Betances has a much higher ceiling to me, even with the command problems. If he can repeat his 2010 command, then he is heads and shoulders above Cosart and Guerrieri. If not, he could still be an excellent reliever with his stuff, especially getting a bump in the pen.

by cookiedabookie on Jan 16, 2026 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Betances has the best mixture of upside, floor, stuff, and performance, in my opinion. Unless he gets hurt, it seems pretty likely that he will at least be a quality MLB reliever. If he makes a few more adjustments, he has the stuff to be a front-line starter. And he’s close to the majors. I’d take him before the other two.

by limozeen on Jan 16, 2026 5:04 PM EST reply actions

Personally

I like Jerrin Cosarrieri. Looks like an A+ pitching prospect in my eyes.

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by Frag on Jan 16, 2026 5:24 PM EST reply actions

Betances + Sabathia

I see so many similarities between Bets and CC. Both big guys, although Bets is not carrying as much weight, and both had control issues early in their careers. Bets peripherals are similar to CC’s too:

Bets: 10.4 K/9, 7.2 H/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 0.5 HR/9 in 426 IP.
CC: 10.4 K/9, 7.3 H/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 0.5 HR/9 in 245 IP

Only major difference is, is that CC was mlb ready by 20 where as Bets has had injury issues and is now 23. However, their numbers are almost identical.

I really hope that Sabthia can mentor Betances and teach him the same balance and consistency with his mechanics. If he can stay healthy and gain some control he can be a real TOR guy.

by YnksFnSnc78 on Jan 16, 2026 11:02 PM EST reply actions

lol

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by doublestix on Jan 17, 2026 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

and it is..

the hardest part of player development. Sounds to me almost identical as if Chris Davis can improve his strike zone judging ability he can be a legit #3/#4 bat.

by Patrick Relano Kim on Jan 16, 2026 11:50 PM EST reply actions