BA EL TOP 20

Unlike Montero he can stay at the plate long term while not having black hole production. Yes he stopped existing in the second half of the year but it’s his first full year of catching. He was a wrecking ball in the first half of the season playing in a pitcher’s ballpark. Even Montero’s numbers had a noticeable split from Trenton’s ballpark and others. He’s still got a high ceiling with a decent probability of sticking due to the overall suckiness of catchers. He’s a top 100 prospect for a reason.

We often times downgrade RP even when they can be dominant. (thinking of Kimbrel arguments here & I am sure there are others).
I thought it was interesting that Paps would rank 7 if he was known to be an RP. Being an SP prospect shoots down my theory.

I forgot to add that the stats posted above were put up in less than a full season at AA. He had a total of 25 HR if his A+ stats are counted. Also in his favor are the facts that the Eastern League is generally a pitching friendly league and he got better and better as the season progressed, OPS’ing over 900 after the All-Star break.

Just how much age really does matter relative to offensive production, separated by position. I have a working theory in my head that as you go down the defensive spectrum, the relationship between age and production at a given level matters less.

we’ll have a better idea of Rizzo’s upside after next year. I think is performance this year gives more reason for optimism than skepticism, but let’s see what he does in ’11.

He came back after a slow start. I think, 250 PA or more, Ratliff had the league’[s highest wOBA of anyone under age 24.

I really like Dave “Patch” Adams.

He did not play enough to qualify. He only played in 37 games with the Aeros before getting promoted to AAA.

Just noticing, I was surprised by Adam Warren too, at #13 on the FSL list. He then had good numbers for his 10 starts in the EL as well, but didn’t make the list. He spent just a bit more time in the FSL though, so maybe that’s the reason, more people saw him there (though I didn’t, so I really don’t have an opinion on that one).

I saw him much earlier in the year, so obviously not what I saw.
Even then, he looked pretty good, just not quite top 20 worthy.

When I saw May, he was struggling as well, and I don’t think I saw him break 90 mph. But there are lots of reports of him hitting mid 90’s, and he must sometimes also have more command and feel than I saw.

Cody Scarpetta, I thought would make the FSL list. He had good numbers and maybe the best fastball I saw this year. But he also leaves it up in the zone too much, and could struggle some at higher levels if he doesn’t continue to improve location and feel. But a big step forward from last year. Still, reminds me a bit of Holt when he looked good in the first half last season, before he fell apart.

I’m just not sure what to make of these guys who struggle a lot then suddenly look real good for a brief stretch. Brackman in AA had a 4.19 ERA and 5.24 RA over his first 8 starts, with one nice 2 hit 8 SO performance mixed in there. Then he absolutely dominated for his last 7 appearances in August and September, with a 0.71 ERA, 2.13 RA, 0.89 WHIP, 27 SO and only 8 BB in 38 IP.

OK, I’ll buy that’s not the same pitcher I saw. But it’s still only 7 starts.

He did something similar, but worse, last year in the SAL, when he had a 6.64 ERA and 7.37 RA at the end of July, but finished with 8 strong appearances (in a bullpen role). The BA scouting report said “His late hot streak happened when the Yankees shelved his knuckle-curve, having him focus on a conventional grip, and his changeup.”

If he’s showing two 70 pitches, he’s obviously showing improved command of that curve.

So far, UZR/150 has him -5.3 in CF and +4.8 in LF. That’s still a pretty small sample, and DRS likes him better, but at worst it seems he’s a tweener, a bit below average in CF or above average in a corner. To me that means he can play either, it doesn’t really matter which, his value will be about the same either way. That’s about a -2.5 overall defensively after positional adjustment.

OK, so all he needs to do then to be a +2.0 WAR player is put up a .335 wOBA. For a guy who had a .375 wOBA in AAA this year, and a .360 wOBA in AA last year, who doesn’t turn 23 until spring, that seems well within reach. I think a 2.0-3.0 WAR is a reasonable expectation even without any elite tools there. His plate discipline looks like a pretty elite skill. He’ll probably reach his peak early, even if it isn’t the absolute highest peak.