Padres / Reds Trade

This might give the Padres the best farm system or at least tope 3 (not that it was that bad before).

Kind of a crazy trade. In a weird way a good thing for two elite blocked prospects, but they aren’t going to a great place to hit. As you point out, also weird for Rizzo. I HAVE to assume SD will be using Alonso at 1B exclusively, and giving Rizzo at least a full year in AAA, but they put themselves in a weird situation trading for a slightly better 1B MLB ready prospect, when they are the only other team in baseball with a good 1B major league ready prospect.

that Rizzo could be sent to Tampa Bay in exchange for Wade Davis.

couldn’t they just put Alonso in LF and Rizzo at 1B? Or is Alonso’s defense an issue. Don’t really know much about him defensively in the OF just hear about the bat.

Could this be the first time ever that two players were in the same trade where their first name begins with a “Y”?

warmed up to it now. I like Grandal. Alonso will likely be better than Rizzo, although the ceiling probably isn’t as high. If Volquez can bounce back into even a Petco style #3 it would be a success.

Latos value is the same. He’s the exact same pitcher on the road as he is on the road. Identical numbers. Scary close.

No.
Lots.
Soon.
Closer.
Yes.

Very nice opportunity to pick up a frontline starter in Latos, but not easy to give up Grandal. He wasn’t nearly as expendable as many here seem to be suggesting.

I like Alonso a whole lot more than Rizzo, especially for SD. In a park where HR power is suppressed, it makes a lot of sense to concentrate on pure hitters with respectable-but-not-premium pop. I just don’t trust Rizzo’s bat.

Pirates need a long term first baseman. What do you think Rizzo costs them?

in baseball. No question about it I would go
1. Padres
Tons of depth, I love Erlin and Sampson. Just think about this Rizzo, Grandal, Alonso, Erlin, Liriano, Gyorko, Sampson, Kelly, Spangenberg, Darnell, and Wieland. That’s 11 top 100 prospects to me + Ross who is also fantastic and Boxberger is pretty good too. I might actually say 7 top 30 prospects.
2. Nationals
I think having a stud like Harper is such a boost to a system, I think Harper will have a career like Griffey. But the rest of the system isn’t anywhere close to a slouch either. I’m really high on Rendon and Peacock, I put them both in top 30 prospects, Rendon in top 15, I would give Rendon an A and Peacock a B+, then A.J. Cole is a great upside arm, so is Meyer, I think Derek Norris is getting underrated I love his walk rate. Goodwin and Purke also have very high upsides. I really like Lombardozzi too.
3. Blue Jays
I love their depth even though they lost Molina
D’Arnaud is IMO the 2nd best catching prospect in baseball. Gose is a stud. I love Hutchison, then Syndergaard is a really good pitching prospect, Marisnick and Norris have very high upsides. A lot more, but too many to say.
4. Cardinals
Four arms, that are very good. Miller and Martinez are studs, Rosenthal and Jenkins I think are going to have huge breakout years next year. Taveras and Wong are great bats, Lynn has a good upside and pitched well in the majors, Sanchez will be a great closer, Swagerty is a pretty god pitcher too. I really like Maikel Claito and Ryan Jackson.
5. Rays
Very deep with a stud prospect at the top, also have Hak-Ju Lee, but I’m not as big on the Torres, Archer, Colome, Romero, Guerreri group as most. I’m not very high on HS pitchers that haven’t played a game yet, they’re shown to be the least valuable, the most valuable are College hitters, HS hitters, college pitchers, HS pitchers. Guerreri has a very high upside but he is a HS pitcher, Romero has a high upside but has control problems, Torres has great upside, but also has control problems and may be a reliever, I think the same thing with Archer and Colome. I do think one of these guys will figure out control though, or maybe Guerreri could be good. I’m not as high on those guys as most, but they still have a ton of talent.
6. Royals
Still have 2 studs in Myers and Starling. Cuthbert looks like he could be on their level soon too. I am very high on Ventura. Bonaficio is also good. Montgomery is not as good as advertised, but still good, I still like Dwyer a lot. I think Lamb will have a season similar to 2010 after he comes back from TJ surgery, an amazing one. I’m pretty high on Odorizzi too.
7. Mariners
Tremendous pitching like the Diamondbacks and I love Catricala and Franklin. They also have Jose Campos and Fernando Martinez who I’m a lot higher on than most people.
8. Rangers
A lot of players who I think are all hype get ranked very high. I think Roman Mendez should be a C+ or a B-, not a B. I watched him when he was with the Red Sox and he had no fastball movement or fastball command, his secondaries weren’t very good either, maybe he’s changed, but he just looked like all velocity, nothing else to me. Tanner Scheppers and Jorge Alfaro are C+s to me. I can’t put a reliever that high and Scheppers isn’t that great. Alfaro has zero discipline and had an over .400 BABIP. My studies showed that walk rate correlates the best to major league success than anything else. I would give Odor a B-, not a B because he is so far away. I do like Olt a lot, same with Martin, but I’m really down on Perez.
9. Diamondbacks
I think the Diamondbacks barely beat out the Mariners for best pitching prospects, but it’s close now that they lost Parker. They’re position players are not good, but pitching is amazing
10. Red Sox this is not homerism, I’m not doing something crazy like putting them in the top 5. Tons of high ceiling lower level prospects in Bogaerts, Cecchini, Coyle, Jacobs, Swihart,Head. Then as a lot of people know, I’m higher on Iglesias than most people. I’m not as high on Middlebrooks or Swihart as most. Then they have Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Brentz, more good prospects, Lavarnway and Brentz can hit like crazy. No elite prospect, but very, very deep. Not that he should be considered a top 20 Red Sox prospect because of obvious reasons, but Ryan Westmoreland is now playing in baseball games, if he can return to his old level, he might be a top 20 prospect in all of baseball, he was a total stud before the brain problem, and most people considered him the best bet in the minors to go 30-30.
11. Rockies
12. Braves
13. Angels
14. Yankees
15. Pirates
16. Twins
17. Mets
18. Tigers
19. Orioles
20. Astros
21. A’s
22. Reds
23 Dodgers
24. Phillies
25. Cubs
26. Indians
27. Marlins
28.Giants
29. White Sox
30. Brewers

Who did better, the Padres or the A’s?

how much Theo completely ripped off the Padres. Gonzalez is a 6.6 WAR player (if you like stupid traditional stats .338 117 RBIS) and Theo got him for Kelly who still has great stuff but hasn’t performed, Rizzo who is very good but not enough and Fuentes, a complete lottery ticket. The return for Latos was so much better than the return for Gonzalez, I know Latos is much younger and cheaper and more years left, but Adrian is a top hitter in the AL for those 3 prospects.

10th best farm system in MLB? heh heh

a bit. I think he’s a true #1 look at this. 2012 CAIRO projections
Mat Latos 3.34 ERA
notable pitchers with higher projected ERAs than Latos.
Felix Hernandez 3.49
Dan Haren 3.46
David Price 3.40
Ian Kennedy 3.38
Jon Lester 3.51
Gio Gonzalez 3.55
Doug Fister 3.71
Ubaldo Jimenez 3.74
James Shields 3.74

CAIRO is projecting Latos in an extreme pitchers park, but using park factors, Latos’ ERA is 3.49.

I do know that Latos’ splits are almost the same at home and on the road, but you still have to use park factors.

this is a good trade for both sides. I think Volquez is getting ignored. PETCO could fuel a rebound and the Padres could swap him at the deadline next season.

I believe Street is on the last year of his contract so it it not 3 yrs/24 M. He is scheduled to earn 7.5M for 2012.