2010 Tampa Bay Rays Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2025 10:00 AM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Rays prospect list, originally published January 13, 2026. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Desmond Jennings, OF, Grade A: .290/.361/.418, 32 steals for Triple-A Durham. Improved after a slow start, not a lot of power but speed is still there. I still like him but stock has dropped a bit.
2) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Grade A-: 2.45 ERA, 123/35 K/BB in 118 innings for Durham. Brilliant in his first three major league starts. The funny thing is that I think he's still underrated by some folks.
3) Wade Davis, RHP, Grade A-: 4.45 ERA, 77/48 K/BB in 121 innings, 123 hits for the Rays. I think he can, and will, do better.
4) Matt Moore, LHP, Grade B+: 3.67 ERA, 182/59 K/BB in 128 innings for High-A Charlotte, 99 hits. Amazing K/IP ratio, hard to hit, command coming around. 95/21 K/BB in last 61 innings.
5) Alex Colome, RHP, Grade B: 3.69 ERA, 107/40 K/BB in 107 innings for Low-A Bowling Green, 90 hits. A few command issues but a pretty solid season.
6) Reid Brignac, SS, Grade B-: .259/.311/.389 in 247 at-bats for the Rays. Not a great season with the stick, but I expect he will be around for a long time.
7) Alexander Torres, LHP, Grade B-: 3.55 ERA, 119/60 K/BB in 119 innings for Double-A Montgomery, 115 hits, 1.67 GO/AO. Walk rate is too high, but strikeouts/grounders point to his potential.
8) Tim Beckham, SS, Grade B-: .252/.345/.357 for Charlotte, 20 steals, 55 walks, 110 strikeouts in 401 at-bats. Lots of debate about him of course. Although he's hit .286 in the second half, improvements are actually pretty marginal. He's still just 20 and no one complains about his work ethic, but his grade continues to slip.
9) Nick Barnese, RHP, Grade B-: 3.02 ERA, 100/26 K/BB in 122 innings, 114 hits for Charlotte. Great year.
10) Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: 4.44 ERA, 87/25 K/BB in 97 innings, 101 hits for Bowling Green. Not a great year, but his K/BB is pretty good.
11) Luke Bailey, C, Grade C+: .157/.276/.287 for the GCL Rays, 33 games, 108 at-bats. Impossible to spin as anything but a disaster statistically, but we'll see how he does next year further removed from the injury.
12) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Grade C+: 4.43 ERA, 105/44 K/BB in 126 innings for Bowling Green, 126 hits. Not terrific, not awful, no change in grade for me.
13) Aneury Rodriguez, RHP, Grade C+: 3.70 ERA, 81/45 K/BB in 100 innings for Montgomery and Durham, 93 hits. No change, still a C+ type but still has some surprise potential.
14) Kyeong Kang, OF, Grade C+: Seems to have misplaced his bat'leth, hitting just .248/.331/.329 for Charlotte. Power vanished.
15) Matthew Sweeney, 1B, Grade C+: .264/.345/.488 in 34 games for Charlotte, then .196/.263/.276 in 46 games for Montgomery, struggling with Double-A transition. Now on the DL with elbow problems.
16) Todd Glaesman, OF, Grade C+: .226/.293/.398 with 11 walks, 55 strikeouts in 186 at-bats for Princeton in the Appy League. He's got good tools, but his approach stinks right now.
17) Alex Cobb, RHP, Grade C+: 2.63 ERA, 99/27 K/BB in 99 innings for Montgomery, 108 hits. Throws strikes, gets grounders, good strikeout rate.
18) Jake McGee, LHP, Grade C+: 3.32 ERA with 112/34 K/BB in 95 innings between Montgomery and Durham, 84 hits. He's fully healthy again and the results are obvious; stock way up.
19) David Newmann, LHP, Grade C+: 4.58 ERA, 78/44 K/BB in 112 innings for Montgomery, 135 hits, 1.78 GO/AO. Not a great year, but I still think he's a sleeper.
20) Matt Gorgen, RHP, Grade C+: 1.93 ERA, 40/20 K/BB in 42 innings for Montgomery, 19 saves, 30 hits. On DL with "biceps tendinitis."
I loved this system pre-season and I still do. The pitching factory keeps churning out arms. They need to add some hitting to that, but the 2010 draft class should help. I hope Hellickson stays under 50 innings, as I really want to put him in the 2011 book.
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Beckham
Personally, I think Tim Beckham is one of the most underrated prospects in the minors.
He’s seen a huge, huge spike in his walk rate, his strikeout rate is reasonable and his ARL is good/excellent. We’ll see if the power comes but if his name was say, Wilmer Flores, he’d be ranked a lot higher than he is.
by WrenFGun on Aug 18, 2025 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
If his name was Wilmer Flores
… he’d be two years younger, in the same league, and having a better year.
Now, there’s still plenty of room for optimism with Beckham; he had a pretty hot July (though he’s backslid thus far in August), his scouting reports are still good, and he’s just 20. But there’s no reason to gloss over the holes in his profile. He hasn’t hit for average or power (no HR since mid-May; .106 iso) and he strikes out a lot (~24% of his PA). The walk rate improvement is nice to see, but that’s alone isn’t gonna cut it.
I hope he puts it together, but he’s not there yet.
by aCone419 on Aug 18, 2025 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s not there yet, but I wouldn’t exactly be concerned about that K rate at his age.
I just don’t see much difference between the two (Beckham makes less contact and walks more..both may move off of SS .. both don’t have much present power..). Meh. I don’t see one as a top 30 prospect and the other outside the top 100..
by WrenFGun on Aug 18, 2025 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
note on walk rate (not Beckham)
One thing to remember about walks is that they can come from one of two (or a combination of) two skills- plate discipline and/or passive hitting. At lower levels, in my opinion, it is much more important to see a low SO rate than it is a high walk rate.
More on this later though (maybe much later :-/)
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by JD Sussman on Aug 18, 2025 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Bingo.
See Flowers, Tyler.
He’s under the heading “Super Overrated Prospects.”
I can’t even tell you how much I hated to see Mike Napoli comps thrown around the Flowers.
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by alskor on Aug 18, 2025 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Sale, O'Conner, Vettleson, Dietrich, Brett
John, as you point out, the Rays went hitters with 5 of their first 6 picks in the draft this year. Back of the envelope, where would these guys rank in the system right now?
My gut tells me that Sale comes in just above Tim Beckham and all the rest somewhat below.
by AndrewTorrez on Aug 18, 2025 10:36 AM EDT reply actions
McGee
What grade you give him now John? As high as a B+?
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by RedHopeful on Aug 18, 2025 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
mcgee
At least a B, B+ is possible. Won’t make that call until i start writing the book
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The Matt Moore hype machine needs to start churning...
He is a reincarnation of Clayton Kershaw. He has a plus fastball (which checks in a little slower than Kershaw at the same time. It sits at about 91 or 92 instead of 93 or 94), a plus-plus curveball and an average changeup. Add in the fact that they are both lefties with solid builds and you have quite the comparison. The main difference in their development paths is going to be the ARL, as Moore is about one year behind Kershaw. I believe this mostly has to do with Tampa Bay’s philosophical outlook on moving pitching slowly through their system, making sure everyone gets almost a full year at each level under their belt. And in this case, I believe Moore actually needs it. He is going to see his BB rate, which is already high, spike in Double-A so I hope that he overcomes that adversity in the second half of next year and continues dominating. Moore is a shoo-in top 20 for me, and because I have so much faith in his “stuff” and the Rays development plans, he could even sneak into the top 10 or 15.
by lions1 on Aug 18, 2025 1:16 PM EDT reply actions
Question about plus fastballs
You say he has a plus fastball that comes in around 91-92. Are you saying that the velocity is plus, or his command of the pitch or what?
Is it possible to have a plus pitch with below average velocity?
Serious question.
by Woo! on Aug 18, 2025 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The short answer is yes, it is possible.
But is not very probable. it is quite hard to have a plus fastball without good velocity. But a plus pitch refers to the pitch being a notch above average (this can refer to velocity, movement, deception). If a pitcher throws a pitch with below average velocity but somehow has amazing deception or movement on it, then it can be considered plus. The opposite is also true and Kyle Farnsworth is a great example. He has plus plus velocity on his fastball. There are not many pitchers that can throw harder than him and that is why he consistently gets chances at the major league level. Scouts see the potential in his right arm. The problem is, even with that plus plus velocity, he has an average fastball due to lack of movement, deception, etc. At the major league level, even if a pitch is coming at 97 MPH, if it is coming straight then eventually hitters will time it.
In the case of Matt Moore, his fastball velocity is a bit above average, probably plus because although he sits around 91-92, he can touch 94. What makes the actual pitch plus though is his ability to put lots of movement on it.
by lions1 on Aug 18, 2025 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
So his plus ranking
is not based on his left-handed velocity as much as it as on movement? Thanks, that answered my question and stifled my eventual comeback.
by Woo! on Aug 18, 2025 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he has good fastball velocity but it's the movement that makes his fastball so devastating.
The only chink in his armor that someone would point out is that he walks a lot of batters. They would then say that he does not have that much control over his pitches. The interesting thing about Moore is the fact that he basically only walks right handers. His walk rate vs. right handed hitters is 4.82/9innings but only 1.86/9innings versus left handers. Even more interesting is that his batting average against is better against right handers (.203 vs. RH and .241 vs LH) and he strikes out way more right handers (13.08/9innings vs RH and 11.48 vs LH). This is quite unusual for a left handed pitcher and it makes him very intriguing. This statistical info supplements the fact that we know he throws his fastball to right handed batters with devastating down and away movement.
by lions1 on Aug 18, 2025 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
His velocity is better
He was 94-96 with good life. Even if you think the stadium gun was juiced, that’s still 92-94 with good movement.
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by Imperialism32 on Aug 18, 2025 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Hard to believe one of the guys having the best seasons in Cruz isn't even on here
few pitchers are really struggling, most have maintained their stock, some greatly. Hitters have been meh at best. This years draft should help a bit with Sale/Vettleson/O’Conner/Dietrich all top 20 type of guys (might not all be there. Some might have Brett there as well).
by Navi's_Navy on Aug 18, 2025 3:49 PM EDT reply actions
Better pitching prospects
What team has the best collection of pitching prospects? Rays or Braves or possibly even the Royals? Not just the guys at the top either, but also the depth of them.
by mattp31 on Aug 18, 2025 8:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I know
Braves have great pitching depth and talent. So do the Rays, and I’m sure the Royals have a the same, but I don’t know as much about them.
by Braves24 on Aug 19, 2025 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Take a look at the Royals
Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy just at the top of the list (around AA now)…and a ridonculous number of them are left-handed to boot.
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by The Ol' Perfesser on Aug 19, 2025 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think that compares to the Rays or Braves very well. Certainly not as deep and I’m not really sure I’d say the high end talent is as good either (although I think you have a case with the Royals top 2 vs the Rays top 2). Where the Royals system separates itself is the mix of pitching and hitting. It will be real interesting to see organizational rankings next year. Heck, even the Pirates could jump up into the top 8-10 with Taillon, Allie, Heredia, etc. Should be really interesting.
by jfish26101 on Aug 19, 2025 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
bryce harper is the sexy name but considering his minor league history
and mlb success this year. If hellickson is eligible next yr does he have a shot at #1 in the rankings
by Dbullsfan on Aug 19, 2025 6:43 PM EDT reply actions
maybe for others
not for me. Harper is #1.
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by doublestix on Aug 19, 2025 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn't have a shot at all.
Hellickson’s ceiling is being one of the 20 or so best pitchers in the big leagues. Harper’s ceiling is being one of the 5 best players in baseball. The American players coming out of HS in the last 25 years with as much hype or at least the scouting reports Harper have are all superstars or on their way to being superstars. Jr, A-Rod, Hamilton, J-Up and then Harper. Hitters with Harpers skill set just don’t bust. Hell, Hamilton did crack for 4 years and is still a star. It’s really really really really hard to fuck up that much talent. And while he might be an arrogant ass, by all accounts, he’s a baseball/gym rat.
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by Tyler on Aug 19, 2025 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Hitters with Harpers skill set just don’t bust
I think you’re jumping the gun here. Lots of analysts have pointed to holes in his swing. The only thing we really know is that he has tremendous power. The rest is up for discussion.
Still… don’t disagree with your conclusion and I would certainly be surprised if Harper busts…
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by alskor on Aug 19, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
There is a chance he doesn’t not live up to expectations, but assuming health, I’d bet a pretty good amount of money that he’ll be at worst an above-average regular. I guess it depends on peoples definition of bust. I wasn’t trying to say he’s a guaranteed HOF’er, just that given the way he’s dominated older competition with a wood bat, the chances he’s not a regular player are almost non-existent. How he adjust to big league off-speed stuff and his plate discipline will obviously ultimately determine how much he succeeds.
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by Tyler on Aug 19, 2025 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Jennings...do the Rays part ways with Upton or Crawford
Crawford being a FA it seems everyone has him leaving TB..but it seems to me Upton woul dbe better to get rid of.
Hellickson looking great and has a real future…who is the SP the Rays will trade or let go
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by Rickfansince76 on Aug 20, 2025 2:45 PM EDT reply actions
Matt Garza is most likely the SP to be traded because his contract is the least team friendly
and CC leaving is all about money….BJ is still a serviceable cheap option in CF. The guy gets a bad rap because of his reputation of being lazy, failed expectations, and comparisons to his brother…That being said he is still basically Michael Bourn, who was an all-star and is loved in Houston. I’d imagine that BJ will be around for a few more years in Tampa.
by Dbullsfan on Aug 20, 2025 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Hellickson was demoted after his first non win of the season (bullpen blew it in the 8th)
6 1/3 3 ER 7 h 1 bb 7 K…his worst start by far….Rays are sending him to Charlotte to work out of the bullpen….I can’t imagine he would be much worse than Mike Eckstrom or Dale Thayer even if he isn’t quite used to it…..hard to argue with much the Rays FO does but this move leaves me scratching my head. All Hellickson has done is be one of the best pitchers in baseball over his first 4 starts
by Dbullsfan on Aug 21, 2025 9:34 AM EDT reply actions
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