Draft Question: Late First Round Pitchers

by John Sickels on May 28, 2025 12:01 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

Let's say you are picking in the bottom third of the first round. You definitely want a pitcher. The top high school candidates are off the board. College guys Workman, Harvey, and Eibner are off the board. You can't afford Zach Lee. Your medical guys won't sign off on Ranaudo. Here are the candidates you have it boiled down to.

Seth Blair, RHP, Arizona State
Jesse Hahn, RHP, Virginia Tech
Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Henderson HS, Henderson, TX
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Barstow HS, Barstow, CA
Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State University
Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel

How would you rank them in terms of preference?

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I'd go:

Alex Wimmers
Tyrell Jenkins
Asher Wojciechowski
Aaron Sanchez
Jesse Hahn
Seth Blair

by jar75 on May 28, 2025 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

I'll go

Wimmers then Jenkins

And I wouldnt touch any of the others.

Blair for injury risk because of delivery mechanics and command issues.
Hahn for injury history.
Wojcehowski tops out as a reliever.
And although Sanchez would be a nice pick in a later round, he definitely needs fine tuning in college. Not worth a top round pick.

by backtocali on May 28, 2025 12:49 PM EDT reply actions

my take

I was thinking Wimmers and then Jenkins as well.

I like Blair a lot and also consider him….his mechanics look OK to me, but I am worried about Hahn’s health, and there is just something about Wojciechowski that I don’t love.

by John Sickels on May 28, 2025 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

Blair

I have seen him pitch at least 20 times in person over the past 3 years (season ticket holder for ASU) and I can certainly chip in on him:

From a “stuff” standpoint he’s better than Mike Leake. Now before you all jump on me, I’m saying simply by what he puts on the ball. He is obviously no where near as polished, have the intangibles, or is not near the pitcher Leake was for us. That said, Blair has a better fastball with more movement (leake sits at 88-89 while Blair 92-93) and Blair’s slider is more an out pitch than anything Leake throws. Leake’s strength was being a master at his craft, adding and subtracting from his pitches, and throwing 4 pitches for strikes. Blair comes with a nasty boring fastball will break some bats at the next level, a power slider, and a change that shows some promise but isn’t used that often. Blair’s control can be erratic, he’s helped out a lot by kids with limited plate discipline. When Blair gets in trouble he just rears back and unleashes a 97mph fastball and college kids for the most part chase it no just because of the sheer velocity and movement, no matter where it is (or isn’t) in the zone. Big league hitters will wait Blair out and feast on his mistakes.

IMO, Blair could excell as a closer. His fastball would bump a few notches and he could scrap his change and just worry about mastering the slider. I could see him a closer with a 97mph 2 seemer and a mid-high 80s slider

by ScottAZ on May 28, 2025 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

also

for what its worth:

Last year at the CWS we played North Carolina and faced their #1 pick Alex White.

Comparing White and Blair:

Similar stuff. Both sit about the same with the fastball, both have similar power breaking balls, both had limited changeups. But, IMO, White was much more of a polished pitcher. He has better command and more stamina. If White is destined for the pen, I don’t see how Blair could remain a starter

by ScottAZ on May 28, 2025 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Barrett

How has Barrett looked this year? His numbers are quite sharp.

by John Sickels on May 28, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

very good

IMO, he was being overused early in the year. At one point he pitched in something like 9 straight games. Thats pretty hard for a kid that was used to pitching once a week in high school.

Esmay got him some rest and his stuff appears to be back. When he’s going good he works 95-97mph with a power curve. When fatigued his control was spotty, but it is usually pretty sharp for a power armed freshman.

IMO, he’s the most impressive arm we’ve had on campus since Ryan Mills 15 years ago.

by ScottAZ on May 28, 2025 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

There's a long list

of guys with better stuff than Leake. I don’t think there’s one guy in this year’s draft who is a better pitcher though, and that’s what counts.

by blackoutyears on May 28, 2025 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Harvey

Not related to the question, but I’ve yet to hear a review on Harvey that makes feel that he’s a top-20 guy. Even as a power reliever, there are too many questions that have me curious as to why everyone has him going so early.

by nmh on May 28, 2025 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

-Sits in the mid 90s with his fastball and holds it deep into games
-Plus slider that has looked sharp all spring
-Changeup has shown flashes, but still needs work
-Gets a TON of ground balls
-Has cleaned up his mechanics considerably since last year and has seen improved control and consistency as a result

The only real concern I have is his workload. I would take him over Deck McGuire.

by jar75 on May 28, 2025 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair Enough

The workload is really a concern, to me. You don’t hear mention of him without a comment about that 156 pitch game he threw recently.

Outside of that, the fact that he was so highly touted out of HS, then struggled his first two years, then got rid of the curveball that had all the scouts going gaga, then had a tough workload… It just seems that there are an awful lot of questions surrounding him.

by nmh on May 28, 2025 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Wimmers
Wojciechowski
Sanchez
Hahn
Jenkins
Blair

And I might have Loux right next to Wimmers. I find Wojcie more compelling than most I guess, and as long as he’s not too expensive then worst case you’re getting a solid back of the ’pen option.

by blackoutyears on May 28, 2025 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

Wimmers
Wojo
Jenkins
Blair
Hahn
Sanchez

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Grab Some Pine, Meat
K.F.I.S.T.F.
Hoping for BowkerMania to get consistent playing time at AT&T; Park

by Gobroks on May 29, 2025 10:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions