Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2011
by John Sickels on Dec 21, 2025 2:00 PM EST
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PrintCincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2011
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too concerned about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get past the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do to. The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders. Order early and order often!
QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:
Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Almost all Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.
Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.
Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.
A major point to remember is that grades for pitchers do NOT correspond directly to grades for hitters. Many Grade A pitching prospects fail to develop, often due to injuries. Some Grade C pitching prospects turn out much better than expected.
Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise coming from me, and some C+ prospects turn out very well indeed.
Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.
Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2011
1) Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Grade A: Is he a starter or a reliever? Either way he will be excellent if he stays healthy.
2) Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B+: I think the breakout is real.
3) Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+: Above average hitter, but blocked positionally.
4) Billy Hamilton, 2B-SS, Grade B+: Could use more patience, but I love everything else about him.
5) Yasmani Grandal, C, Grade B+: One of my favorites from the 2010 draft, power, plate discipline, and I like his defense more than some people do.
6) Juan Francisco, 3B, Grade B-: Strike zone issues and defense preclude higher grade, but the power is genuine.
7) Todd Frazier, UT, Grade B-: Maybe I'm just stubborn, but aside from his slow start last year, he still looks like a useful player to me.
8) Donnie Joseph, LHP, Grade B-: I might be too aggressive with this grade but I think he is more than a mere LOOGY type and might be able to close.
9) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B-: Another aggressive grade; I truly believe in this arm, if he can just stay healthy. . .
10) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: Extremely young, very talent, still very raw.
11) Zack Cozart, SS, Grade C+: Can field, run, hit for some power, won't hit for average.
12) Brad Boxberger, RHP, Grade C+: I like the arm, but what is his role?
13) David Sappelt, OF, Grade C+: Undersized but a broad base of skills, needs to improve use of speed on the bases.
14) Ismael Guillon, LHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate from rookie ball.
15) Henry Rodriguez, 2B, Grade C+: I seem to like him more than other people, but the performance is excellent and he's young.
16) Junior Arias, SS, Grade C+: Loads of power potential, but plate discipline and positional questions exist.
17) Ryan LaMarre, OF, Grade C+: Scouts love the tools, but something here holds me back, I'm not sure what.
18) Jonathan Correa, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm from rookie ball.
19) Ronald Torreyes, 2B, Grade C+: Interesting middle infielder who leapt from VSL to Midwest League in one year.
20) Sam LeCure, RHP, Grade C: Average pitcher. . .but the kind of guy who could run off a surprisingly strong year with proper support from teammates.
OTHERS OF NOTE: Tucker Barnardt, C; Drew Cisco, RHP; Daniel Corcino, RHP; Danny Dorn, OF; Juan Duran, OF; Brodie Greene, INF; Didi Gregorius, SS; Matt Klinker, RHP; Wes Mugarian, RHP; Kris Negron, SS; Cody Puckett, 2B; Neftali Soto, 1B; Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP; Daryl Thompson, RHP; Chris Valaikia, INF; Phillippe Valiquette, LHP; David Vidal, 3B; Kyle Waldrop, OF.
This system is in good shape with a super-elite Grade A pitching prospect, four Grade B+ position players who all project as regulars for me, and then a big batch of B-/C+ types who have a chance to contribute. Some of the later guys (Lotzkar, most of the Latin American guys) have the potential for higher grades next year but have some sort of question or issue to deal with right now.
The Reds put a lot into finding power-hitting Latin American players but they all seem to have the same weakness with poor strike zone judgment. Mesoraco and Grandal give them the luxury of having two elite catching prospects. The pitching after Chapman is thinner, although there is significant raw material at the lower levels that could look really nice a year from now.
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Agreed with most of these
I think the Juan Francisco grade is generous. Guys with his BB/K ratio barely ever contribute anything at the major league level. To me he’s Wily Mo Pena until he learns to walk a bit.
Also, I think the grade on Yorman Rodriguez is a bit low. Everyone expects this kid to be polished, but he was playing in high-rookie ball as a 17 year old. He should’ve been a junior in high school, but instead he puts up an .817 OPS against guys 2,3, and 4 years older. (with a wood bat, of course!)
I realize the strike zone judgement is an issue, and he hasn’t shown a ton of power yet, but it’s not like he’s striking out a ton. (in fact, his BB/K ratio is better than Francisco’s) Since he’s so far away, I can see the C+, but I really believe he’s a top 5 or 6 guy for the Reds.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 2:20 PM EST reply actions
agreed
John missed the boat on Yorman. To give him a full grade lower than Hamilton makes NO sense.
Both should be Bs. Both have been equally impressive.
by Dewey Finn on Dec 21, 2025 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hamilton was clearly a step ahead of Yorman this year
Having watched several games in Billings this summer, I have no question but that Hamilton will be a major league ball player. I was not as sure about Yorman, he certainly played well and hit the ball at times but at others he looked lost at others (see his walk rate etc). Hamilton looked like he is going to move much faster, however he is a couple of years older too.
Having said this, given his age, competition level, etc. I am still very hopeful about YRod!
by mbushskbum on Dec 22, 2025 6:13 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Yorman has off the chart tools and did great as a 17 year old. Personally I would take him over Profar.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2025 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No shit
I was speaking about young teenage prospects. Why don’t you stick to your Tampa Bay/Upton/Beckham shtick and bugger off.
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2025 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i meant no hostility
no need to act like a prick.
Yorman had a .392 BABIP… that partly explains his impressive BA…. i don’t see any other reason to rate him over a young SS with a tremendous glove
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
Profar/YRod
Is a shortstop with a good glove all that much more valuable than a center fielder with a good glove? Position wise, the two spots are pretty much in the same ‘value’ area.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
yeah they aren't too different
I just read that Profar is much better than “good” … and I haven’t heard Yorman described as plus-plus yet, but I admittedly know less about him
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
Do you have any link's listing his defense as plus-plus?
by King Billy Royal on Dec 21, 2025 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
can't remember where, but John himself described it as "outstanding"
i translate that as plus-plus.
this is generally how i translate commonly-used terminology
terrible/poor/bad = poor
average/ok = average
good/great = plus
outstanding/excellent/porn - plus plus
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
can't remember where *else
i know i read a couple different ones aside from John’s
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
the guy from hardball times, called it 'outstanding'
then linked “rave reviews” to Frankie Piliere, and I guess thats why I thought I remember Frankie saying “oustanding” as well… tho he didn’t say that specifically.
he said these things:
In the case of Rangers’ highly touted international signing from last year, Jurickson Profar, instructs are revealing the fact that he indeed has All-Star type abilities.
Although it is Profar’s clearly advanced switch-hitting that sets him apart, he also showed some strong action at shortstop in Arizona. He has a clear plus arm that allows him to play the position, and the first step in the hole to his backhand side was consistently quick as well. In other words, this looks like a young kid who, if he can keep his body agile and athletic, fits the profile of an offensive shortstop that can handle the position.
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
That seems like an interesting divergence
Frankie’s comments seem to imply that his defense isn’t especially good - he projects him as somebody who can only “handle the position.” But John thinks it’s very good - I wonder why they disagree
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by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2025 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
"All-Star type abilities", "strong action at shortstop", "plus arm", "consistently quick.. first step in the hole"
i think that means good
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
At first I thought so too
On third reading, I’m just confused. I think you’re right, but his prose is a bit ambiguous
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by OldProspects on Dec 21, 2025 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, its mostly that last sentence.
which is ambiguous. but i’m thinking it was just poor choice of words. because everything else he says is way positive
by daveh33 on Dec 22, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Re: Francisco/Pena
That comp makes sense only if you look at the numbers. When you watch the two guys play, there are major differences. Francisco can hit breaking balls for example. Pena didn’t know what a breaking ball was. He swung as if it were a fastball every time.
With Yorman, I agree. He might be raw in a certain area, but how many truly raw players (at age 17 nonetheless) hit .340 in a league where they are the second youngest player? Ultimately that is why I wound up going with Yorman ahead of Billy Hamilton in my own rankings. I just can’t find many guys who at age 17 hit .340 in the US who are absolute toolsheds. The most impressive thing to me about him though is his willingness to go the other way, with power. Yorman goes to the opposite field more often than he pulls the ball and he does so with more power than when he pulls the ball as well. At 17, thats incredibly impressive.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think its evident...
that Wily Mo and Francisco both had/have large holes in their swings. Pena couldn’t adjust but it remains to be seen if Francisco can.
by Havok1517 on Dec 21, 2025 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
Sure
but the adjustments they both needed to make are entirely different.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
What holes
have you guys seen in Francisco’s swing? I’ve seen people writing him up as having a long swing but I think he keeps his hands inside the ball exceptionally well and he can be short when the pitch demands it. It’s his penchant for overestimating his ability to make good contact that dooms him when I watch him. Like a lot of LHHs he can be lured with sliders down and away, but that’s not really a hole as he shouldn’t want to make contact with them anyway. He seems tough to get to inside unless you make a good pitch. His O-Swing is higher than average as you’d expect, but I think his Z-Swing is probably higher than average by th same margin.
Personally, I think Drew Stubbs when I think of a Red with "holes"in his swing. As Doug says, Francisco’s issues seem different.
by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
That's fine if he has superior recognition
But until that shows up in his numbers, it doesn’t mean anything. I don’t care if he knows it’s a breaking ball headed for the dirt if he still hacks at it.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 4:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t care if he knows it’s a breaking ball headed for the dirt if he still hacks at it.
Maybe not, but you have to hold out greater promise for the guy who can’t lay off a pitch versus the guy who can’t recognize it out of the pitcher’s hand, right?
by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Of course
I also hope Yonder can hit 30 homers and play passable LF defense. Until I see it happen, I’m not giving him credit for it as a prospect.
Francisco has 5-6 solid years of history as a hacker. This is not just a matter of a development curve. He drastically needs to change his approach. I hope he can.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 7:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You haven't seen Francisco play much have you?
His plate discipline is better than his numbers suggest. Watching him all year, he got into a lot of 3 ball counts. He still seems to be anti walk though, but up to the point where he gets 3 balls on him, he is fairly selective. If someone can just get it into his head that walking isn’t bad, and is actually good, he will start taking ball 4 like he does 1-2 and 3. He is much closer to being a solid plate discipline guy than his walk/strikeout rate suggests he is.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Again, that all offers hope.
But I reserve the right to remain skeptical about a 23 year old with an extensive history of hacking.
I really hope he can get that walk rate up to even 6 or 7%. If he does, I’ll be one of his biggest fans. But after all of this time, I want to see it happen before I believe it.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
Watching him all year, he got into a lot of 3 ball counts.
That’s what I saw.
No one’s saying that skepticism isn’t warranted, but it’s important to debunk remarks that compare Francisco to Wily Mo and such. I’m not a Francisco booster by any means, but I’m not going to mischaracterize him or act as if there’s been no progress in his approach the last two year either. Skepticism is great, as long is it’s not simply an excuse to avoid deeper scrutiny.
by blackoutyears on Dec 22, 2025 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Also,
I don’t really see the knock on Hamilton’s patience. He walked almost 9% of the time this year. And he’s only 19. I’d say he’s doing OK in that department.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 2:30 PM EST reply actions
this is a really interesting system
I love love Billy Hamilton… i like Yonder a lot less than most… but this is still a very intriguing system with two big catchers with power potential, the best LHP prospect in the game, and a lightning fast MIF with tools oozing out of his pores. like it a lot
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 2:32 PM EST reply actions
It's always interesting to see a less biased view of the system.
I tend to overvalue our prospects, so it’s good to see another view.
Personally, like ‘creds, I don’t think Francisco is going to be that great. He has great power potential, but I think the patience and defense are going to hold him down.
Sappelt’s another interesting guy. I think a lot of rankings will hold him a bit higher, but this upcoming season should show whether his breakout last year was legit.
I’m pretty bullish on Donnie Joseph, so no complaint there, I see the same thing you do.
I think next year is going to be interesting as far as following Hamilton.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 21, 2025 2:37 PM EST reply actions
Wood and Leake
Where would Leake and Wood rank here if they were eligible?
by delmonfan on Dec 21, 2025 2:46 PM EST reply actions
Between Mesoraco and Francisco perhaps?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 21, 2025 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
between Alonso and Grandal for me
probably ahead of hamilton, but I could see an argument for him to be ahead of them. they’d both be B+ grade IMO, with Wood ahead of Leake.
by pack_fan on Dec 22, 2025 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Cisco
Clearly an HM right now, but I have a feeling that he’ll move into the Top 20, and perhaps into the middle of it, after 2011. Not the highest ceiling but a great pitchability guy in the Leake/Wood mold.
by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 2:50 PM EST reply actions
Agreed. Cisco is very advanced for his age.
He could turn out to be another Glenn Gibson, but I think he’ll move quickly for a youngster and has a legitimate chance to be a solid major league pitcher. He and Kyle Waldrop were very nice signings out of the 2010 draft.
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by Thundering Turtle on Dec 22, 2025 8:46 AM EST up reply actions
He and Kyle Waldrop
I’m very interested to see how Waldrop debuts.
by blackoutyears on Dec 22, 2025 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
personally think the B-
should all be C+ guys. Close, though, so I can see why they are B- types, but just don’t like any of them enough to feel they get the bump.
by toonsterwu on Dec 21, 2025 3:27 PM EST reply actions
I can see that
there are questions for all of them, Francisco is a definite C+ in my eyes, because of lack of a position and plate discipline issues.
by pack_fan on Dec 22, 2025 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
what type of speed does billy hamilton have?
is he a 30 steal guy in the mlb? or more like a 50 steal guy?
by drewlev on Dec 21, 2025 4:01 PM EST reply actions
I think a lot of that difference
is down to things other than speed.
But dude is fast
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 21, 2025 4:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
so...
dee gordon would be a good comp in terms of speed?
by drewlev on Dec 21, 2025 4:17 PM EST reply actions
Hamilton
As a left hander, 4.0 from home to first is considered plus speed. I have timed him multiple times in the 3.70 -3.75 range. He is absolutely blazing type fast.
Lets make a note of how dominant he was on the base paths in 2010. He led the Pioneer League with 48 steals. The guy in second place had 23.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
I know I may be in the minority but
I’m just not seeing Chapman as a straight A IF he ends up as a reliever. Kimbrel(Braves) got a B+ and he was dominant this season out of the pen and hits mid- upper 90s with his FB and has a wicked slider just like Chapman. Granted Chapman is LH and has hit 100+ but if he’s a reliever that negates some of his value IMO.
by Jay212033 on Dec 21, 2025 4:30 PM EST reply actions
but it's not for sure that he's a reliever...
Kimbrel it is for sure.
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by doublestix on Dec 21, 2025 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
But
A straight A for a guy who MIGHT BE a starter?! Now don’t get me wrong dude is flat out filthy but for an a guy that’s uncertian to be a starter personally I don’t think he deserves a straight A.
by Jay212033 on Dec 21, 2025 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
i think its mostly a question because of the Reds' brass/D Baker...
he looks like a starter to me and I think Doug and most Reds’ fanatics would agree
by daveh33 on Dec 21, 2025 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
MIGHT BE a starter
I think you’re focusing on the cloudiness in his future role and ignoring how special a profile Chapman’s is. He’s a soon-to-be 23-year-old LHP who throws harder than all but a handful of his peers and he isn’t a trainwreck in terms of control, or even command. If he was more raw than he is I’d see your angle, but he’s far too developed not to be considered an elite talent. An A seems completely merited based on his ceiling and the not unreasonable chance that he reaches it.
by blackoutyears on Dec 21, 2025 5:55 PM EST up reply actions
NO ONE throws harder
Your statement about Chapman: “…who throws harder than all but a handful of his peers…” doesn’t do him justice. NO ONE throws harder than Chapman, now and perhaps ever. This is a guy who comes out of the bullpen throwing 102 MPH with ease and has reached 105 MPH, and is actually able to get a reasonable amount of those pitches over the plate! The number of other pitchers who can do that are… zero. There has never been anyone like him before and because of that, he deserves his A, whether he’s a reliever or starter.
by bardin on Dec 21, 2025 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, he has incredible stuff
But you still have to judge on overall, practical baseball value in my opinion. You can’t just say “Oh he has the best stuff I’ve ever seen and that makes him a grade A prospect”. No, you still have to factor in things like starter/reliever, injury risk, pitchability, command/control, quality of third/fourth pitches—I can see the argument for grading Chapman down in any or even all of those areas.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Dec 22, 2025 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
No sir
I don’t care if he is the hardest throwing guy in the ML if he’s a reliever that WOULD take away some of his value. NO reliever prospect deserves a straight A ranking. Kimbrel in almost the same ML time had more dominant numbers than Chapman or any other reliever in history over a 20 inning span and equally as good stuff minus a few mph on his FB but he’s only a B+ and I can understand that cause he’s a reliever.
by Jay212033 on Dec 22, 2025 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Rawr...
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 22, 2025 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
Your statement about Chapman
Keep in mind that he’s doing that out of the bullpen. We won’t know what sort of velo he’ll maintain over the course games and a full season until he’s starting full-time. I expect that he’d lose at least a couple of miles off the FB as a starter, and in fact there were relief outings where he sat 98/99, so it’s not like every pitch he threw set records. If all he had was the world’s best FB he wouldn’t be an A prospect for me. The second plus pitch (slider), handedness and promising developments in control/command are what make him an A.
by blackoutyears on Dec 22, 2025 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
One thing that needs to be said about Chapman and starting
I think some people are confusing him moving to the pen to help the Reds with his supposed inability to be a starter. Those are two very different thing.
I know this is selective endpointing, but here are his numbers from his last 6 starts (out of 13 total) before joining the L’Ville pen.
30.2 IP, 22 H, 19 BB, 35 K, 3.52 ERA.
And that includes one disastrous start where he walked 6 and gave up 7 runs in only 2 innings. Take that start away (I know, I know. Just humor me) and his numbers in the remaining 5 starts:
28.2 IP, 16 H, 13 BB, 34 K, 1.60 ERA
Point being, he was seemingly starting to figure some things out, most notably his control. He’s still wildly inconsistent from outing to outing, but he’s making progress. You can’t really account for the team’s wishes a this point. The larger issue is that he clearly has the potential to be a frontline starter.
see what I did there with uzr? it’s like a LOL cats saber-pun combo.--Verka Serduchka
by nycredsfan on Dec 22, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
hard-throwing LHP always take longer to harness their stuff
if Chapman had everything figured out, he’d be the #1 prospect. as it stands now, he’s got ridiculous stuff, and as good a chance as we’ve seen of becoming the next Randy Johnson. even if he starts out in the pen, I’m pretty confident he will be a starting pitcher in MLB.
by daveh33 on Dec 22, 2025 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Even with the selective endpointing and removing the worst start
That’s still a 4.1 BB/9, which really gets to heart of the issue. The control as a starter is a huge question mark. Enough of one that I can see a case for dropping his grade below a straight A. I’d probably still keep him an A myself, but he’s close to the cutoff and I see where others are coming from.
by nixa37 on Dec 23, 2025 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
what was Nolen Ryan's BB/9?
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by justin007000 on Dec 25, 2025 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
I basically agree
I can go a weak A- on the strength of the possibility that he reaches his ceiling (ace SP), but the chance that he winds up as a mere closer is too strong for me to go straight A.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Dec 22, 2025 2:03 AM EST up reply actions
This
I can definitely go with this because he has the possibility of being a starter.
by Jay212033 on Dec 22, 2025 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Because Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman would be a terrible thing to end up as.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 22, 2025 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously not
Still, Ted Lilly has a higher career WAR than Hoffman…just saying
by nixa37 on Dec 23, 2025 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, and there is a realistic chance that Chapman becomes one of the top 3 relievers of all time
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 6:47 AM EST up reply actions
That's not the point I was making
You just love to troll, don’t you?
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 25, 2025 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
So why bring up those players?
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I have:
Chapman, Grandal, Alonso, Rodriguez, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Boxberger, Frazier, Francisco, and Lotzkar
Is that pretty good?
by Nnamdi Asomugha on Dec 21, 2025 5:20 PM EST reply actions
is Yonder Alonso even likely to end up a starter anywhere?
Power is middling. The elite college plate discipline certainly hasn’t translated to the pros (good previous to this year, but not nearly special). The glove is nothing. what am I missing? Are his scouting reports that good? It’s not like Louisville is a difficult place to hit.
by AgitationStation on Dec 21, 2025 6:54 PM EST reply actions
Alonso's power
I think it drastically gets underrated sometimes. The guy slugged .497 in the FSL in 2009. He then broke his hamate bone two weeks into AA. For the next year he struggled. From the 1 year anniversary until the end of this past season he hit .340 and slugged .590. At the futures game scouts made note that his power stood out in batting practice among the players there….. I don’t think he is a 35+ HR guy at all, but people seem to talk about him like he is a 20 HR guy, when its more like 25-30 with 40 doubles.
by dougdirt on Dec 21, 2025 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Lots of guys who played at Carolina
Some comments:
I also think Mesoraco’s breakthrough is real. It took him a while to adjust at AA, but once he did he was dominant.
The problems that I see with Francisco are (a) he doesn’t always focus on the field (to put it as gently as I can) and (b) he hasn’t yet learned how to lay off the fastball up and away. He would really benefit from having someone around who would give him a kick in the butt now and then. I don’t think Dusty is that guy.
Alonso can really drive the ball the other way. I agree with Doug that the hamate injury killed his power production.
I like Dave Sappelt almost as much as I did Heisey a year ago. I understand the C+, but the guy comes to play every single day and there are some skills there (including more pop in the bat than you’d think when you look at him). In many ways he’s the anti-Francisco; he’s going to get every ounce out of his talent. It would not surprise me at all if he developed into something like David DeJesus.
Boxberger doesn’t have much of a clue how to pitch (which appears to be something of a problem throughout the system). His long-term role is probably as a reliever, but he’s never going to have any sort of career if he doesn’t figure out a way to keep hitters from sitting on a fastball which just isn’t good enough to get outs by itself.
Mike Emeigh http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/
by MikeE on Dec 21, 2025 10:46 PM EST reply actions
Good analysis, MikeE.
High school catchers often take a while to develop, especially those from cold-weather states. I think Mesoraco is for real, but he needs to improve his receiving. We did some minor league comps on Francisco and it was difficult to find someone just like him, but the closest I came was Craig Brazell.
I like the DeJesus comp for Sappelt, whom I absolutely loved coming out of Coastal Carolina. I see Boxberger destined for the pen, too, if for no other reason than he has a history of significantly losing velocity as the game wears on.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 22, 2025 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
agree on Mesoraco
He broke the threshold and will continue!
by hishnik on Dec 22, 2025 2:37 AM EST reply actions
Nothing I disagree with too strongly
Francisco is too high and Yorman is too low. Francisco has no clear position and lacks plate discipline, and with Yorman he showed some good signs at his age at the level he’s at jumps him big time, plus his ceiling looks very high and is starting to establish his floor, good D at a premium position. I think John is still skeptical of his SO, but thats something he can correct, especially given his age. Overall though I like the list/grades, keep up the good work John.
by pack_fan on Dec 22, 2025 1:24 PM EST reply actions
Ryan LaMarre, OF, Grade C+: Scouts love the tools, but something here holds me back, I’m not sure what.
Maybe power not enough to justify K rate (sb% low as well). Well-rounded - but not plus - tools?
by itch on Dec 22, 2025 5:37 PM EST reply actions
I think you are waaaaaaaaay too high on Alonso
He’s a first baseman with an unadjusted ~.800 OPS in 1,000 at bats in the minors. That’s well below replacement level production over a sizable sample size if you use MLE’s. And he’s 23. This guy is rapidly approaching non-prospect status. You’d have to have some really good scouting impressions of him to justify a B+ ranking.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 6:46 AM EST reply actions
I mean like you would have to think he looks like Pujols up there to justify a B+ ranking with his numbers
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Did you read any of the comments?
The guy had a broken hamate bone. His power was basically gone for a year.
"People don't kill people. Burning oreo packages kill people."
by crolfer on Dec 25, 2025 9:11 AM EST up reply actions
You seem a little misinformed on Alonso
He broke his hamate bone in June of 2009. Look at everything he has done from the draft through June 2009. Then from after June 2010 through now. The guy has been an absolute monster of a hitter while fully healthy. Problem is, nearly half of his time he has played since being drafted has been played while not fully healthy.
by dougdirt on Dec 25, 2025 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
You can't just discount stats because he was injured
Those injuries take a toll, and portend future injuries, and the stats he accrued while injured still are reflective. You can bump him up a little bit, even substantially, because of those injuries, but he’s still been a replacement level player in 1,000 PA so far in his career.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
it is widely accepted that wrist injuries take about a year to come back from
if you look at Jay Bruce, he suffered a wrist injury in 2009, and it took about 12 months for his power to return.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
by justin007000 on Dec 25, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
What does widely accepted mean?
And since when does that pass off as evidence? Do you know if players regain their full power a year after a wrist injury? I sure don’t.
All I know is that Alonzo has a career .826 OPS in 931 PA in the minors. That’s pretty awful, especially considering that more than half of those PA were below AAA. That translates to something around a .700 MLE OPS. A first baseman with average defense (which is generous given the scouting reports) and a .700 OPS would be a 0 WAR player - replacement level.
I find it hard to believe, even considering that he was injured for a significant part of his career, that he’s going to suddenly improve to the point where he’ll be even a starting caliber player. I can even buy that his numbers are artificially depressed because of the injury, but A) you can’t just throw them out, those numbers still show his performance - you just have to adjust it based on how much you think his injury affected him, and B) you can’t just assume that he will revert to pre-injury form (which, let’s be honest, we have no idea what that is) after suffering a serious injury.
He’d have to improve his OPS by about .100 points to even be a league average player. That’s pretty rare and it’s not something you should bank on. Given the B+ ranking, it appears that John is banking on even greater an improvement.
I think the ranking is far to high given his performance so far. You can’t just write off 1000 PA of replacement level performance just because he’s been injured, and wish-cast as to what he’ll do when healthy. All the objective data we have (age, performance, position) says that he is not a good prospect. Based on pure stats alone, he compares favorably to Mark Hamilton - who is essentially a non prospect. You can bump him up a little bit because of his high draft status and good scouting observations, but the highest he should be at this point is a C+/B- prospect.
If he has a great season in AAA next year, with his power fully returning, that he will obviously be a much better prospect.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
i have no idea what kinda of player Alonso will be
but what I do know is that he was drafted in 2008, and his wrist injury occurred in his first full professional season in 2009, his injury effected 2009 and 2010. His slugging percentage increased after being promoted to Louisville last year, he was promoted mid season which would indicate that he gained power.
So we have have 24 year old first baseman, about to start his 3rd full professional year at AAA, this will hopefully be the first year free of injury. As an amateur he hit for power, he hit for contact, power, and got on base. As a minor leaguer he still got on base, but his power is repressed, probably because of the wrist injury. It is quite possible he won’t return to his pre-injury form, but I think it is fair to give him 2011 to prove himself.
Also he is in a fine organization that as of late has done a pretty good job of drafting and developing, Bailey, Bruce, Stubbs, and Leake all first round drafts picks, picked since 2004, played very important roles, I tend to trust the organizations ability to scout and pick amatuer talent, so I say Alsono will rake and we won’t know where to put him with the Reds having the finest first baseman today in the starting line up.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
by justin007000 on Dec 26, 2025 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
You didn't refute any of my points
So I can only assume that you agree with me that his B+ ranking is way too high.
His slugging percentage increased after being promoted to Louisville last year, he was promoted mid season which would indicate that he gained power.
Minor increase in slugging percentage is much more likely caused by random variation (slugging percentage is highly variable in a small sample size, due to the defensive aspect of it). That increase indicates very little.
It is quite possible he won’t return to his pre-injury form, but I think it is fair to give him 2011 to prove himself.
This is exactly what I said. Right now, he has played like crap since being drafted. That’s undeniable. He now has to prove that he is ready to develop like the Reds thought he would, after essentially a wasted two years. That type of guy is a C+/B- prospect with a chance in improve greatly with a good season, he is not a B+ prospect.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2025 2:49 AM EST up reply actions
Uh, what?
This isn’t an injury that makes it more likely to happen again. And injured stats are reflective of future performance? How does that make sense? If he going to continue to be injured the rest of his career with this injury? Of course he isn’t.
by dougdirt on Dec 26, 2025 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
So injuries don't negatively effect players at all
A player gets injured for a year, plays like shit, his injury is over and he’s suddenly the same player he was before the injury.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2025 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
They typically don't effect a players future
Not positional players, in most cases. A broken hamate bone is an injury that nearly everyone has come back from. I can only remember about the last 15 years or so worth of injuries, but I don’t seem to recall a broken hamate bone just totally taking away someone’s skill forever. It isn’t like blowing out a knee in the mid 90’s and a guy loses some speed which really hurts his game.
But yeah, in this case it seems that Alonso’s wrist got to the one year mark and the guy then tore the freaking cover off of the baseball for 200 plate appearances in AAA. With wrist injuries, they take time. After a year, guys tend to get back to where they were. There is a long history of it.
by dougdirt on Dec 27, 2025 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think
you’re wasting your breath, Doug. There seems to be a contingent out there who can’t stand to see him praised — Rizzo seems to draw similar fire — and attempts to defend him only fan the flames. He’s a 1B prospect who’s completely blocked, so he’s got problems even if he does start fulfilling the potential you and I see.
by blackoutyears on Dec 27, 2025 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
And from the draft until june of 2009 he was about an .850 OPS hitter in R and A ball
Getting injured and continuing to perform poorly, and at first base, does not a top prospect make.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
Rookie ball?
You are really tossing in a one week sample in his first exposure to pro baseball after not playing for 2 months after the draft? Really?
As for his A-ball time, the guy OPS’d .880 in the Florida State League. I think you should probably check out the context of that league. Then you should probably check out what other major leaguers did when they went through that league. A lot of them didn’t come close to that. Was Ryan Braun not a good prospect because he only hit .274/.346/.438 in the Florida State League? Did he all of a sudden just figure something out the second he was promoted to AA and tore that league apart? Of course not, the Florida State League played games with his numbers because the parks almost all play as pitchers paradises. Alonso however didn’t really get that same chance to show that because within two weeks of his promotion, he broke a bone in his wrist. An injury that has long been said to take a full year to recover before a players power comes back to where it once was.
And when it comes to prospects, what is the real issue at hand…..
How they will perform as a future major leaguer?
or
How they performed in the minor leagues?
What a guy did in the minors isn’t as important as how they project to perform at the Major League level. Alonso’s numbers, regardless of whether you want to look at them the way I am or the way that you are, don’t change anything in how he is going to perform in the future. The majority of the prospecting guru’s out there seem to like Alonso’s future ability quite a bit.
by dougdirt on Dec 26, 2025 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
....
Rookie ball? You are really tossing in a one week sample in his first exposure to pro baseball after not playing for 2 months after the draft? Really?
Yes I’m tossing in the one week sample because it’s what actually happened. Do don’t just throw it out, you just add it to the rest of his stats. I said R + A, and I don’t what else you want from me.
Was Ryan Braun not a good prospect because he only hit .274/.346/.438 in the Florida State League?
No it didn’t disqualify him from being a good prospect, but it certainly hurt his case. And if he had put up that line, then got injured and continued to play like crap for another 600 PA, then yes, his prospect status should have plummeted. As for parks, you adjust for parks and league environment, you don’t just throw out the fucking data.
Again, replacement level performance for 1000 plate appearances. I don’t see how you can argue this guy, right now, is a good prospect. Maybe if he shows that his over his injury next year and has a .900 OPS season in AAA, but we can’t just give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll do that.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 26, 2025 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Prospects aren't what they did. It is what they will do
You seem to be confusing performance for future performance. This isn’t the Major Leagues. Performance today, in the minor leagues, simply DOES NOT MATTER. What matters is that they are learning the skills that they will need to become good Major Leaguers. Not that they perform well.
And as for this:
No it didn’t disqualify him from being a good prospect, but it certainly hurt his case.
You couldn’t be any further from the truth. The numbers that Ryan Braun put up didn’t change a thing about his future at all. All of his tools/skills were there. He didn’t just go there and forget how to hit the baseball. He just basically began playing all of his games in Petco, so his numbers were watered down. His skillsets were there and didn’t change.
Seems that you don’t believe a guy is a good prospect until he has played. Does that mean you weren’t a fan of Bryce Harper being ranked in the Top 50? Top 100? He hasn’t really played yet. I just can’t seem to grasp the idea that performance dictates future performance at the minor league level. It simply doesn’t. Especially when we begin to factor in injuries to the equation. There are so many factors that go into a minor leaguers numbers that a lot of people simply don’t know about. Did you know that in the 2006 season a Major League team had every single one of their batters take the first pitch all season? How do you think that effected their numbers? Other teams knew about the rule and pounded the strikezone, causing the entire systems hitters to be behind 0-1 80% of every at bat. It didn’t change those players skillsets, but their numbers nearly all suffered because of it.
I will leave it at this, because its pointless to continue this. We are both firm in our stance, though I feel a whole lot more comfortable where I stand than I would if I were in your shoes. Scouts like Alonso’s future because he has good tools at the plate. When he has been fully healthy, he has beat the crap out of the baseball. I will take my chances with that.
by dougdirt on Dec 27, 2025 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I see
Prospects aren’t what they did. It is what they will do
I agree, obviously. However, past performance is one of the strongest predictors of future performance, which is why his 1,000 PA of minor league ball are very important towards predicting how he’ll do in the majors.
The numbers that Ryan Braun put up didn’t change a thing about his future at all. All of his tools/skills were there. He didn’t just go there and forget how to hit the baseball. He just basically began playing all of his games in Petco, so his numbers were watered down. His skillsets were there and didn’t change
I disagree. I would bet if you took Ryan Braun’s true talent OPS (however you derived that) and adjusted that for the ballpark it was in, it would come in way higher than his actual OPS. That his actual performance was worse than his park adjusted expected performance implies that he isn’t as good as his expected performance.
Seems that you don’t believe a guy is a good prospect until he has played. Does that mean you weren’t a fan of Bryce Harper being ranked in the Top 50? Top 100?
I have no objection to prospects being ranked highly based on their tools, if thats what you got from my posts I must not be articulating myself correctly.
Here’s the rub:
I agree that if we could look at tools and scout players with perfect accuracy, that minor league stats wouldn’t mean anything. If we had some god given evaluation of a players true talent level just based off of his tools and approach, than the stats would just represent random variation from his true performance.
However, we do not have perfect accuracy in evaluation tools and approach, and how those things translate to major league performance. Not even close. Scouting is a subjective and error ridden process, and is often drastically wrong. That’s why stats are important as well towards projecting future performance - if you think that Yonder, based on how he looks at the plate, is a true talent 1.000 OPS hitter, but in actuality, over 1,000 plate appearances, he has a .800 OPS - that, in all likelihood, means that your initial evaluation of his talent is wrong and it needs to be significantly lowered.
When Alonzo was healthy, his performance wasn’t much better than when he wasn’t. In fact it was probably worse. An .880 OPS in A ball is much worse than a .830 OPS in AAA. Even if you adjusts his injury line up a bit, let’s say to a .900 OPS, he has still significantly underperformed from where the scouts says he should be. Therefore the scouting profile of Alonzo needs to be downgraded towards his actual performance.
And this all assumes that the injury will have no effect on his future play, and had no effect on his development. I categorically disagree with both of those sentiments, and I really don’t see how you could possible disagree with me.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2025 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
"I really don’t see how you could possible disagree with me."
Seriously? Faux pas…
by blackoutyears on Dec 27, 2025 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
I stand by it fully
The idea that injuries don’t have any long term bad effects on players is ludicrous in my opinion.
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 27, 2025 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
in my opinion
You should start the sentence with that, realize its implications, and then delete assertions that anyone could “possible disagree with you.” Admittedly, it does seem ludicrous that anyone could disagree with YOUR opinion. lol
Maybe Emerson could get away with that crap, but the rest of us get to suffer dissent.
by blackoutyears on Dec 29, 2025 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Player A:
Minor League Totals — 6 season(s) .296 .365 .448 813
Player B:
Minor League Totals — 3 season(s) .291 .368 .458 826
Player A is Adrian Gonzalez and Player B is Yonder Alonso
by PacmanJones on Dec 30, 2025 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
"we can’t just give him the benefit of the doubt"
Of course we can. It’s a choice. You’re choosing to ignore the impact of a specific type of injury (or, as the moment suits you, downplay it or twist it into a further demerit) while others choose to take a wait and see approach because of it. You’re just as welcome to your interpretation as Doug is to his, but you’re overstepping yourself with that last sentence.
by blackoutyears on Dec 27, 2025 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
he is a Cardinals fan, so he is a lot misinformed.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can't think of at least two ways to spell any word."
-President Andrew Jackson
by justin007000 on Dec 25, 2025 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
Well you're a reds fan so you're a lot biased
Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat
by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2025 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Is that what this is all about?
Your little tirade thru this page is some kind continuation of the Cueto fiasco and the flamewars that followed?
This is a minor league analysis site. We’re fans, but we don’t get too worked up about false kuprases here…please take the schtick elsewhere.
And as for the comment regarding Alonso above, this is one Cards fan who thinks your arguments don’t hold a lot of water. You’re dealing with nice people here, be respectful, and try to pick a little something up from them while you’re here.
Thanks for 50 Great Years Bobby Cocks - (another fine contribution from your U.S. Senate)
by siddfynch on Jan 2, 2026 8:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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