BA 2011 International League Top 20

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 12:00 PM EDT

1. Matt Moore, lhp, Durham Bulls (Rays)
2. Julio Teheran, rhp, Gwinnett Braves
3. Devin Mesoraco, c, Louisville Bats (Reds)
4. Desmond Jennings, of, Durham Bulls (Rays)
5. Jesus Montero, c, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees
6. Domonic Brown, of, Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (Phillies)
7. Jason Kipnis, 2b, Columbus Clippers (Indians)
8. Mike Minor, lhp, Gwinnett Braves
9. Brad Peacock, rhp, Syracuse Chiefs (Nationals)
10. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Columbus Clippers (Indians)
11. Zack Cozart, ss, Louisville Bats (Reds)
12. Dayan Viciedo, of/1b, Charlotte Knights (White Sox)
13. Yonder Alonso, 1b/of, Louisville Bats (Reds)
14. Ryan Lavarnway, c, Pawtucket Red Sox
15. Vance Worley, rhp, Lehigh Valley Ironpigs (Phillies)
16. Josh Reddick, of, Pawtucket Red Sox
17. Brandon Guyer, of, Durham Bulls (Rays)
18. Alex Presley, of, Indianapolis Indians (Pirates)
19. Alex Cobb, rhp, Durham Bulls (Rays)
20. Todd Frazier, of/3b/1b, Louisville Bats (Reds)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612452.html

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Read More: Devin Mesoraco (C - CIN), Desmond Jennings (LF - TAM), Julio Teheran (P - ATL), Matt Moore (P - TAM)

Comments

no Duda?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

Not a prospect anymore

by Philip Larkin on Oct 9, 2025 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

On second thought

This apparently is not a disqualifying factor for these top 20 lists.

by Philip Larkin on Oct 9, 2025 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Pretty good collection

The Top 15-16 look spot on too although I’m sure we could nitpick about the placements.

I like Alex Cobb of the bottom fifth quite a bit but I can’t really make too strong a case for him over those listed above him. I also think that omitted arms Andy Oliver, Alex Torres & Kyle Gibson probably didn’t miss by much. I probably would have made room for Oliver whom I like the best far & away of that troika. I think the ‘low end #2 SP’ projections with Gibson might have been a more than a bit lofty btw & now he has an injury issue that will (?) wipe out 2012 for him probably. Tom Milone, Christopher Marrero & Steve Lombardozzi II strike me as guys who could’ve slotted here in the back end too.

by Matt0330 on Oct 7, 2025 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

Per Bailey

Oliver: 26-30 range
Gibson: bottom of the top-20, until the injury
Torres: (not addressed yet)

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

No Kyle Gibson either....though i didn't think he'd make it.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 7, 2025 3:20 PM EDT reply actions

Alex Cobb seems way too low

by Dbullsfan on Oct 7, 2025 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

This. Scouts don't seem to like him, but he has gotten the results, even in the majors (abeit SSS).

He knows how to pitch, his stuff is underrated, and his command is better than what they had reported it as.

I never liked him as a prospect, but when I saw him, I saw there was quite a bit to like.

by mr. maniac on Oct 7, 2025 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

interestingly, a swap

of Cobb for Duda was discussed on another site.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions

How about Wade Davis for Duda and you got yourself a deal?

No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.

by thedudeofdudes on Oct 8, 2025 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Wade Davis is what the Mets need less of

by psiogen on Oct 8, 2025 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Personally, I think the Mets would pop champagne if they could get that deal.

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by alskor on Oct 9, 2025 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

really?

Think that Davis is due for a big comeback, or that Duda is a potential ‘dud’ (sorry, just had to do it)?

by dbreer23 on Oct 9, 2025 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a big Duda fan

Much rather have the pitcher.

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by alskor on Oct 10, 2025 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

thx

by dbreer23 on Oct 10, 2025 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Not sure

I think Wade Davis is due around $9M for the next 3 years (with some team options after that for the next 3 years at greater than $20M). The contract is certainly far from prohibitive & I realize Tampa Bay’s reasoning when they extended Davis, but I don’t think the potential upside outweighs the actual money here if this was even a consideration for NY.

by Matt0330 on Oct 10, 2025 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

seriously, don't know how

Frazier or Presley are ahead of Duda.

And after another look, Cozart seems a little high. He’s 26! Sheesh, and Ruben Tejada is 21 and didn’t make it?! Were Tejada & Duda just after the cut? And not to be a pig, but no Kirk Niewenhuis either. These 3 had to have right at the cutoff.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 4:57 PM EDT reply actions

Niewenhuis

In my opinion, he’s a 4th OF not a starter so I can see how he’d be out of the top-20. Not saying I would put Frazier ahead of him, either…

I put a question into the chat about these three Mets, so let’s see what Mr. Bailey has to say…

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

some have said that (4th OFer), but

that’s a bit down the pike from being settled. He’s got plus skills all the way around and the key to him being an everyday player would be if he remains in CF. and he may.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s a pretty liberal use of the term “plus”

by realitypolice on Oct 7, 2025 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

why?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought the primry reason

some say 4th OFer is b/c they believe he won’t hit enough vs. LHed pitching.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Cozart's not a star,

but he could provide quite a few years of above average value at SS thanks to the power and very solid defense. I thought the scouting report encapsulated his skill set well. That said, I’m a big Tejada fan, and I think he’s pretty darn good, especially if he’s at SS (at 2B his lack of pop could be held against him). I think he should get some credit, as you point out, for his age. He’s clearly ready to hit for average and provide major league defense at 21, which means he has a chance to provide many years of value. I was talking to a guy who’s big in Cincinnati HS baseball, very knowledgeable, and he was loving Tejada after seeing him in the Mets-Reds series last month. I think he’s underrated and could be pretty good.

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I have to wonder,

has Tejada exceeded the major league games played limit for this list?

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd also

have Francisco ahead of Frazier if he still qualifies. Unlike Frazier he has the glove to be an every day 3B, and if I’m choosing between two guys with contact issues, I’ll take the one with the plus power and defensive value, even if he does walk about as much as Ironside.

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

JF surpassed rookie eligibility just before the end of this season...169 ABs

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the total I got too

And it’s 150, right?

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

then Duda

certainly is no longer eligible.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure how they handle guys who surpass it midseason...

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

130 is the hitter cut-off, 50 IP for pitchers

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

didn't think Francisco was much in the glove dept.

he seems a bit too lumbering.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you'll be surprised

when you get to see him. He really slimmed down this year, and once he got a chance at some starts toward the end of the year he showed much improved range. He’s always had a very strong arm, but now the footwork and positioning are catching up. I honestly would have said the same thing as you before August. He made a play on a ball hit sharply over the bag that was astonishing, snagging it, taking a couple of quick steps to slow, and stopping, wheeling and throwing in one smooth motion to nail the runner at first. He comes in well on balls. A very pleasant surprise. Doesn’t hurt to see him sitting next to Rolen in the dugout during games either…

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

And it's funny,

because Bailey just said that Francisco isn’t very good at 3B, but I completely disagree, and I think his information is outdated or bad. Last year that was true.

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

You're right, I didn't even look

Tejada had over 200 ABs in 2010, so he wasn’t even considered.

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

ehh, I wouldn't get too excited about Tejada.

His skill set isn’t far off from Luis Castillo’s (the only way he’s going to play SS is he Reyes doesn’t re-sign). His best attribute is that he can work deep counts. Unless he can deliver on those deep counts more than the occasional single, he’s just an pesky utility MIer, and I don’t want to say those are a dime a dozen but he does need to bulk up a bit in order to be more of a gap to gap hitter.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, like I said, he has to be at SS

to maximize his value. Still, I don’t take it for granted that he’s already solidifying extremely solid walk, strikeout and contact rates as a 21-year-old while also providing slick defense at bith SS and 2B as needed. I think he’s got a chance to be a pretty well-rounded player of his type, even if the power never really materializes. Castillo does seem like a really good call as a possible outcome, and he was a nice player whose career was probably overshadowed by his era’s expectations for 2B power.

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

well, in fact Castillo

was considered a very good defensive 2Bman, good contact hitter, and good basestealer the 1st half of his career.

if Tejada could run a bit more, I might be more bullish. I agree that there’s potential for him as a SS. I love him as the backup to Reyes and whomever plays 2B (Havens I hope). I think him getting 250- 300 PAs is ideal.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm hoping Havens

finally stays healthy and seizes the job too. I’m a fan of the potential. And yeah, keeping Reyes if obviously preferable, but at least you’ve got Tejada as Plan B.

by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't see how a healthy Havens wouldn't be the best option

Now, whether he stays healthy is a HUGE question, but by talent alone, he should be their man.

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by Jeff Reese on Oct 7, 2025 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm pretty sure that if Reyes re-signs, Tejada takes 2B in 2012

Collins even said as much in the final weeks of 2011.

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions

can you really go by that?

Didn’t Collins also say he was leaning toward handing the 2B job to Luis Hernandez…?

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Collins does like Tejada,

complimenting him for many of the same reasons I like him, but he also seemed to be simply placing him ahead of the current options on the major league roster like Turner. If Haven’s comes into ST healthy and plays well he’ll insert himself into the mix. Even if he starts the year at Triple-A he’ll be on the radar.

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree.

I just think Havens has the higher ceiling.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 8, 2025 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think

anyone is disagreeing with that to be honest. Tejada has just stolen a march on him.

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions

excellent phrase

stole a march on him.

by wobatus on Oct 11, 2025 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd hate to see worthy players

get set back by months b/c they’re giving daylight to the wrong players instead. Last Spring it was Brad Emaus when Turner was the guy who should have played from the gate.

I hope that Havens (if healthy) doesn’t get buried behind the Tejada/Turner/Murphy trio just b/c he lacks the seniority of those 3. The guy with the higher projection should get time to show what he can do since the other 3 are known quantities.

In fact, I don’t see the team holding on to both Wright and Murphy. One has to move, imo.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 12, 2025 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Havens

This is from projectprospect.com

Reese Havens, 2B New York Mets

"He really stayed with his approach no matter how we pitched him. I had the opportunity from second base to see how he hit. He got in good counts. We started pitching him away more as the season went on and it’s like he changed his approach. He was fun to watch." – Eastern League hitter

by wobatus on Oct 12, 2025 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean it's definitely possible

that he’ll win the job or be in the regular mix.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Castillo was a 3-time All-Star, I'd be thrilled if Tejada had such a career

by psiogen on Oct 7, 2025 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

hitting/fielding SS’s are in crazy demand and this kid could do it. A ceiling with a good year at the plate of JJ Hardy is gold.

by RedHopeful on Oct 8, 2025 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd be surprised

if Cozart ever hit for Hardy’s type of power — Hardy is just a longer, stronger guy with a swing to match — but GABP should help him muster double digit homers. He made some adjustments at the plate this year that finally realized his ability, and he now makes enough contact to be a viable every day player. If we can get him to take a walk…

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

From the chat (before the Tejada AB snafu)

Dan (Idaho Falls): Question on a few Mets: how far outside of the top-20 did Duda, Tejada and Niewenhuis fall? Thanks!

James Bailey: Ruben Tejada has 216 AB for the Mets in 2010, so he wasn’t eligible. Duda and Nieuwenhuis were in the next bunch beyond the top 20. Duda’s got a nice frame for power, but I think he generates it more from strength than bat speed. He’s also a below-average defender in the outfield. I like Nieuwenhuis better long term, but he missed so much of the season that he didn’t garner much support for this list.

by dbreer23 on Oct 7, 2025 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

thnx.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

for the record,

Kirk did have a .908 OPS in 221 PAs at AAA this yr.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

and as we know, Duda is

more than merely a power hitter. He’s actually more of a contact gap hitter.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Strange complaint on Duda

He batted .292 with a normalish BABIP and better than average K%, BB%, and ISO in the major leagues, all with inadequate bat speed? Who needs bat speed, then? It can’t all be the frame!

by psiogen on Oct 7, 2025 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

LOL

great post. Yeah, I’ll take whatever Duda has over bat speed too. :)

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 7, 2025 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

The fact Dida doesn’t solely rely on bat speed bodes well for his future then.

by RedHopeful on Oct 8, 2025 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Alonso

IMO he’s too low…I could see him as high as 8th or 9th.

by notsukao on Oct 7, 2025 5:07 PM EDT reply actions

Far too low for me.

by mr. maniac on Oct 7, 2025 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh, Cozart is the only guy ahead of him that stands out

I’d take Alonso over Peacock as well, but that’s debatable.

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by Jeff Reese on Oct 7, 2025 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd take Alonso

over Viciedo personally, but they’re side-by-side, so that’s not exactly a stretch. This a Top 10 with some real impact talent, and I was surprised that Alonso’s ranking ended up seeming justified once I took a look. Most of the position players ahead of him have both impact bats and greater positional value. I could see arguments for him over Minor or Peacock I guess…

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

question is,

what do the Reds do with Alonso/Votto and also their stockpile of catchers? Seems like they’re a good candidate to be active this winter. Wouldn’t shock me to see Alonso and Grandal and maybe Bailey swap for Felix (if the M’s are listening on him). Not saying Felix is available, but given where the M’s are and the pitching talent in their system now, it could set them up going forward. And I’m sure, the Reds are prob looking for to pick off an ace somehow.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 8, 2025 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Replace the name "Felix" with "Shields" and I think that's an excellent match...

With Ichiro’s downturn (and his possible retirement), sending Felix off would be professional suicide for Jack Z. I just don’t see it happening.

by dbreer23 on Oct 8, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, I was being a tad facetious with the “professional suicide” part…but still, I don’t see it as an option.

by dbreer23 on Oct 8, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions

could be.

Don’t know if the Rays are dealing Shields. But maybe they sell high. A’s (Gio) could be another fit. They’re in a perpetual search for bats.

by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Oct 8, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Shields

seems like a really popular rumor, but I’m not sure how much I give up for a guy in what smells like a career year.

I’m waiting to see how serious Alonso is about that personal chef/workout regimen. He’s clearly the best trade chip, but if he can play any semblance of LF then his bat is an important part of the order next year.

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Ridiculous Felix offers make me smile.

by PissedMick on Oct 8, 2025 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

So you think they could get Felix without even giving up their #1 C prospect?

Clearly to even get the M’s listening, it would probably take Mesoraco and Alonso, probably along with Cozart.

by nixa37 on Oct 8, 2025 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe on Viciedo

I could see the argument for Alonso, but man was I impressed with how much slimmer Viciedo looked this year.

I strongly disagree with your inclusion of Minor though.

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by Jeff Reese on Oct 8, 2025 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Minor's floor

may be lower for me than it is for you. I just haven’t seen him where he wows me yet.

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions

And Viciedo

took a big step forward, has more power and is the better OF defender. I think Alonso gets the edge in contact and on-base ability and has solid power himself, so it depends on what you’re looking for.

by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions

What do you see as his floor?

Still just 23 with 2 years of pro experience, yet he has a 4.74 career ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP. Just racking up strikeouts in the majors while keeping the BBs in check. The only possible worries you could have about him are that he may be a naturally high BABIP pitcher, but even then I don’t think you can make a realistic argument that he’s a true talent .359 BABIP pitcher like he’s shown thus far in his major leage career.

by nixa37 on Oct 9, 2025 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I have't seen him

with his great strikeout stuff. And I wouldn’t say he’s quite “racking up strikeouts”. That ~21% rate is good, not great, boosted by a big August before a more temperate September. I liked his control and delivery when I saw him, and in my looks he seemed like he was better at getting ahead of guys than finishing them off. I haven’t seen him with the “sharp secondaries” alluded to in the Top 20 comments, so I’m looking forward to seeing those. That would make a big difference for me, as it’s the difference between being a #2/3 guy and a #3/4.

And there’s no reason to go overboard. I said an argument could be made, not that Alonso was better. I think it’s fair to say that an argument can always be made for taking a reliable on-base/power package over a non-elite starter. It doesn’t mean you’re choosing one player over the other.

by blackoutyears on Oct 9, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I do have one question:

why is an ATL fan who’d be expected to see Minor regularly citing walk/whiff rates and BaBIP? I’m much more interested in your anecdotal impressions. I should say that the starts I saw were in May and June, and Minor did not go deep into games and got hit a bit (one was the June game against the Mets, one of his worst of the year to be fair). I took a look at his game log and this seems to be true right through the end of the year, as he rarely pitched a full six innings and topped out at 7 IP (once). Was he on a tight leash in your opinion? Pitch count?

by blackoutyears on Oct 9, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Because I've been accused of being a homer in the past

So I try to stay away from solely stating my opinion on a guy, focusing on more objective measures. I think the Braves tried to keep his pitch count relatively low, especially since he can end up throwing quite a few in particular innings as opposed to spreading them out more evenly. They also relied heavily on their bullpen all season, so it wasn’t exactly out of place. For the season he went just about 5.5 innings per start, which would work out to 175 IP over a full season of 32 starts. It would obviously be nice for him to work deeper, but its certainly a good start for a young pitcher.

As for my anecdotal impressions of his stuff, reports of his declining velocity at the end of last season were clearly overblown. He generally starts a little higher in the early innings, but even late he’s mostly 90-91. The change is obviously at least a plus pitch. The curve looked consistently average at the very least this year and the addition of a useable slider that could get better with more work is promising. He’s basically exactly what I look for in a lefty starter, as I’m a huge fan of LHP with strong change ups.

by nixa37 on Oct 9, 2025 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Its true that the high BABIP does boost his K/9

His K/9 did rank in the top 20% of his SP that threw at least as many innings as he did though, so at the very least he’s a solid strikeout pitcher.

I’m not really sure what from my comment you took as going overboard. I didn’t even say anything about Alonso. I was simply asking what you see as Minor’s floor.

Personally, I’m not nearly as high on Alonso as you are. He’s not particularly young and his numbers at AAA the past two years are just solid for a 1B. He should be a solid starting 1B, but I wouldn’t necessarily be happy with him if my team is looking to contend. Its also the easiest position to fill. Compared to a guy that’s showed he’s almost a sure thing as at least a mid-rotation SP, something I think is harder to find that a 1B and can at least be a #5 for any team in the league, I just don’t think he’s as valuable. But honestly that isn’t really what I was looking to discuss here. I was really just interested in what you thought Minor’s floor was so I could better understand your position.

by nixa37 on Oct 9, 2025 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions