say I think this list is very fair. If I could change anything I agree that Kirk is underrated at C+, I think he is more of a B-, I agree with JDSussman and I think Thole belongs in front of Puello and Marte (though I am high on Puello)

overrated

martinez- yeah he did well at AAA but remember sample size, even with the success he had, he has shown poor b/kk skills that need a lot of improvement.

flores- i would have thought he would have been a C+, maybe you could argue B-. he’s a corner guy with no power, poor plate discipline and subpar results albeit at a level higher than where he should have been. there are so many guys in the B to C+ range i would take over him

underrated

davis- i would have thought b+ but your grade isnt far off. i guess i disagree with the guys you have ahead of him. yeah he likely wont be a star, but he is a lot safer than a guy like flores and unlike flores, the power and plate discipline skills are alreay there. flores has to hit for power or he is worthless considering how he projects as a average at best defensively and below average baserunner.

holt- the guy dominated in A+. i think he deserves some slack for not adjusting to AA right away.

do love the kyle allen placement. i think he is a good one. one of the few pitchers i like in this system. mets system usually has a lot of raw boom or bust guys. i dont think the higher ceiling tool guys are there but most of the guys have higher floors. an okay system, better than the past.

This is probably the best Mets ranking I’ve seen this year. I think you are right about the hype going both ways. You are never as bad as they say when you are losing and you are never as good as they say when you are winning. The media just magnifies the over reactions in both directions. As awful a year as the Mets had, they are actually seeing too much negativity lately, including with regard to the farm.

Ike Davis is a good example of both the positive and negative reactions. People loved him at draft time, hated him when he didn’t hit last year, and now think he’s a star. I think you can make a good case for a B+ there, but there are still flaws (I’m always cautious about high k rates). So why not give him the B for now and make him earn it?

Holt is another example. I actually like him better than I did a year ago, I think he’s made good progress. But a year ago when there were people arguing for him here in the community top 100 list here, I thought it was premature. Now though, when healthy, I think he’s a solid B. He dominated in the FSL, probably the best pitching prospect in that league after Drabek and Mejia. Then he struggled in his first AA start, and then dominated for the next 9 starts before an ankle injury. The last two months were ugly, and then he didn’t attend instructional league, which certainly makes me wonder. But my first suspicion is he was never 100% after that injury. I think it’s worth docking him for that second half meltdown, to B-, but I think you may be the one over reacting with the C+.

Thole, I mostly agree on. I don’t think he belongs higher than 12. Yes, some get over exited by the numbers, and some do underestimate how raw the defense still is. He probably needs a year to work on the defense in AAA before settling into an offensive bench role. But, the kid can hit. I think he’ll be a very valuable guy on a roster as a LH catcher with a bat. If you look at his last 1000 PA, counting majors, minors, AFL, and winter ball, he’s hit everywhere, cumulatively hitting over .320 with over a .400 OBP. That’s worth the C+.

Finally, I also like Nieuwenhuis higher, but seeing as he came out of nowhere, I can certainly see why you are giving him the C+ and saying make him earn it as well. But I personally like him right alongside Havens.

Then he struggled in his first AA start, and then dominated for the next 9 starts before an ankle injury. The last two months were ugly, and then he didn’t attend instructional league, which certainly makes me wonder. But my first suspicion is he was never 100% after that injury.

His first AA start he gave up 2 earned, struck out 3 in 6.1 innings, in his second he gave up 5 in 0.1 innings, the 4 earned in 3.1, the he had a nice three game stretch where he stuck out 24 and gave up 5 runs in 18.2 innings, and then survived the rest of the way never striking out more than 4 in a game while giving up at least 5 earned in each one. He started 11 games in AA, gave up 9 homers, had a K/9 of 5.80 and a 5.55 FIP. Outside of that strong three game stretch, he never came close to dominating anything.

I’m surprised Niesen is so high after not being on your original preliminary list. If he gets command, he can be a deadly left hander.

Couple of changes I’d like to see, but not too upset about would be:

1) Davis to B+, he dominated AA last season, hits for power, a good average, takes his walks, good glove, just needs to cut back on the strikeouts. At this point, the only question mark on him last season was the strikeouts. I think right now he’s on par with Yonder Alonso who was a B+ last year.

2) Tejada to B-, played the whole season at 19, the youngest player in the league, is supposed to be very good fielder, has good speed (stole 19 out of 22 bases), doesn’t strike out (only 12.1% K%) has a decent eye for someone so young (7% BB%), and for a player written off with no power, he hit 5 homers and has plenty of time to add strength. Would 10 home runs be out of the question next season? He had very comparable numbers to Starlin Castro, not he’s as good or has as much potential, but just that they had comparable seasons, both at age 19 (though Castro is a few months younger)

3) Thole to C+, A catcher who hits over .300, walks more than he struck out in A, A+ and AA, doesn’t hit homers, but still has doubles power, and only in his second year behind the plate and is adequate.

4) Nieuwenhuis to B-, Played most of the season at 21, was the best hitter in the FSL last season, led the league with .383 wOBA and .824 OPS, third in homers with 16, first in doubles with 35, stole 16 of 20 bases, had a high K% (28.1%), but waked a decent amount as well (11.1%) and he’s a solid fielder.

I may be a bit of a homer, but I really like where the farm was this year and think there are a bunch of guys who could potentially breakout next season and become top prospects. Havens, Allen, Familia, Nieuwenhuis, Tejada, Holt at the more advance levels, and Puello, Urbina, Marte, and Matz, at A or below. (Just to be clear, not that all will become top prospects, just think one or two of those groups could have monster years)

Fernando and Niese will probably graduate this year, perhaps along with Stoner and Gee, but the Mets should get some help with the seventh pick in the draft next season.

Where does the Mets system rank in your opinion? Is saying top 15 me being too optimistic about my favorite team, or is a 13, 14 or 15 ranking fair? I pretty much follow the Mets entire farm and the top prospects of other clubs. I’m don’t go too in depth after the top few prospects.

already has moved to second base

I agree with John about this list, though Ike Davis is probably a borderline B+ guy. If he has another solid season in the minors he will most likely be more than just a solid regular.

I like Josh Thole a lot too and I believe he can be a solid starter. That said, he looks very much like former Mets’ catcher Mark Johnson (remember him?).

I am most high on Ruben Tejada (for no apparent reason other than I like him a lot).

My 2c opinion a fair ranking for this improved system would be #14 overall.

Is his upside a LOOGY or a more prominent role?

I’d go B on Flores, Davis maybe B+, but B seems reasonable, B- Holt, C+ Thole, C on Marte. B- on Familia and Allen, well, I don’t want to disagree. But I figured they’d be C+s.

Its already been addressed but Martinez over Flores shouldn’t even be a question. Martinez is still the best prospect for the Mets, injury concerns or not, if I had to choose one guy out of the system I’d still take FMart. I like Mejia a lot and I wouldn’t argue much about placing him equal to Martinez. But I would drop Flores to a B, because Martinez and Mejia are clearly a step up from Flores IMO.

I’m still optimistic on him. He had a monster year in 08 and a horrible year in 09, no doubt. Given his age, I’m willing to give him a pass. The skills that gave him rave reviews in 08 didn’t just disappear.

2010 will be a telling year.

You definitely got Davis right, John. A nice guy to have in your system and somebody that you can project to fill a 1B/OF slot capably but not at a star-type level of production.

I’d definitely count myself among those surprised at how highly you think of Flores, though. I like the projection his bat shows, but it’s all projection at this point. And while I’m not going to harp on the production level of any teenager (especially a 17 year old) in the Sally League too much, it just wasn’t a very good year other than the fact he managed to make decent contact. For a guy who is probably very average with the glove long-term wherever he plays, he’s really going to need to hit, and right now he is a short-season wonder.

I will admit that I thought Flores was overrated last year as well.

I have FMart on my dynasty league because I’ve heard so much about him, but I honestly don’t know much about him. What do you all see as comps for him, and got any guesses for projections (both average and peak years)?

He constantly walks more than he ks, and has good obps and very high averages. Didnt he dominate the venezulan league too? Considering power is often the last skill to develop, and thole has clearly shown that he knows how to hit, i think a C+ would better represent his skillset and potential.

In my opinion, and I guess many people’s. Maybe it’s just because he’s being pushed too far, and JOHN is the expert, not me, but I feel like SOME performance is necessary before he can be ranked so prestigeously.

Also, rather low on Holt, who fought a small injury and was adjusting to AA after being in Brooklyn and college for all of 2008.

Low on Thole as well. From what I’ve seen from Josh he’s a line drive hitter who can get hit off of just about anyone. I saw him live againts Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol and he ripped liners off of both, which is pretty impressive considering that they have some elite velocity and movement. For a regular catcher Thole should be above average, at least.

He’s probably one of my favorite players in minors, not including A’s guys of course. Overall I think Mets system is better than people give them credit. For example, if I were Padres GM I could definitely see a more interesting match in Mets than in Mariners or maybe even Red Sox regarding potential Gonzalez trade.

more than I thought I did. Athletic windup, good size, pitches downhill…more to come.

Such as a “B” prospect has x percent chance of making the majors as a y WAR players, and so on?