Josh Thole = MWP

by Dewey Finn on Jan 8, 2026 11:59 PM EST Comment 91 comments

What is an "MWP"? Mauer Without Power.

In my opinion, this is the best way to describe Josh Thole. This kid is not getting the respect that he deserves from this community. People are far too obsessed with power and don't realize that there are other aspects to the game of baseball that make a player like Josh Thole extremely valuable. It is not unreasonable to believe that Thole could put up numbers similar to Joe Mauer's 2008 season. Obviously there is no guarantee that Thole can achieve that, but up to this point, he has clearly demonstrated that he has the potential to do so.

Josh Thole

2008 (A+): .300/.382/.427/.808

2009 (AA): .328/.395/.422/.816

2009(VWL): .381/.470/.568/1.038

Joe Mauer

2008: .328/.413/.451/.864

Josh Thole rips righties and lefties (no platoon splits concern), and also walks more than he strikes out (mastery of the strike zone). Even in the brief stint with the Mets last year (17 games, 53 ABs), Thole managed to hit .321 and had a 4/5 BB/K rate. He definitely showed that he wasn't over-matched by major league pitching. Although Thole's defense is not above average right now, he has made steady improvements over the past 2 seasons and is on his way to becoming a solid defensive catcher at the major league level. That's probably better than half the starting catchers in the major leagues right now. Thole's defense is not the major concern that some of you make it out to be. The kid is new to catching and is getting better. As with any player learning a new position, it takes a little time. It's actually impressive where Thole's at already so soon in his development.

Honestly, I just dont understand why Josh Thole doesn't get more love. Will he hit a lot of homeruns? No. Will he throw out 50% of would be base stealers? No. However, a catcher who can hit over .300, get on base almost 40% of the time, and play solid defense is a rare and valuable commodity. Don't be surprised if Thole makes more all-star game appearances than everyone's beloved Buster Posey. By the way, I expect a public apology from all of you when Thole either secures his first NL batting title, makes the all-star team, or receives MVP votes. One fanpost post with +1s will suffice.

Josh Thole is an excellent hitting prospect, and you all need to realize that. It's sad that you don't already.

3 recs | Comment 91 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: Josh Thole (C - NYM), Joe Mauer (C - MIN), New York Mets

Comments

oh man

Dewey you make me laugh. thanks for this.

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It’s too bad that minor league stats aren’t everything. If there were, Jeremy Reed - and his .400 average a couple years ago - would be the next Ted Williams. Too bad.

http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/

by koolkerns101 on Jan 9, 2026 12:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

+1

and Shelly Duncan would battle for the home run crown.

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

Jeremy Reed and his high averages got him love in prospect rankings, etc. Unfortunately, despite posting excellent numbers, Thole doesn’t. I am merely suggesting that Thole has a lot of potential that people don’t seem to see.

I hope you aren’t saying that because Reed didnt make it, that Thole is doomed too. If so, you are in way over your head on this site.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 9, 2026 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely not. But it needs to be stated that even if you perform highly, no matter how high or low you are rated, you aren’t guaranteed success. Using stats as the sole means for devising strange comparisons is not fair. There are WAY too many aspects that go into becoming successful (and a potential hall of famer, in Mauer’s case) to even begin making comparisons. The same goes for ANY prospect, and ANY major leaguer.

And, too be honest, I have loved some of your posts in the past, but this one is absolutely unjustified. Statistics mean almost nothing. We should know that by looking at Hanley’s minor league splits, and anyone who has performed above their major league numbers. If you think this is a fair comparison, maybe you’re the doomed one, because you’re automatically assuming Thole will challenge for major awards based on a year and a half of great stats.

And, to be fair, I’m not saying Thole isn’t a good prospect. But comparing him to an all-star is just not warranted at this point. Could he surprise? Absolutely. And you’d look like a genius. But almost everyone but you, doesn’t see it. You’re in the minority right now - and probably for a reason. I’m not a scout, and I assume you aren’t either, but there has to be a reason why all major outlets don’t see him as the next Mauer.

http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/

by koolkerns101 on Jan 9, 2026 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Dewey

Minor league stats don’t mean almost nothing. And he isn’t saying Thole will be the next Mauer, but that he could put up a line close to .328/.413/.451. I doubt that is an outlandish prediction. Is it likely? Probably not, but it wouldn’t be that shocking. That’s a .123 ISO and he did .127 in the FSL. I think Reed is a good cautionary tale but it doesn’t mean Thole will flame out. And while he still needs work as a catcher, he did improve throwing runners out, and no one has said he needs to move to second or something (not that he could-it is likely catcher or nothing I think I heard).

Dewey is off the wall if he thinks Thole is better than Santana, but I like the fact that he is pushing this.

by wobatus on Jan 9, 2026 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bad comp

Reed also had pedigree (being a 2nd round draft pick) and a pretty solid set of tools on his side.

by mrkupe on Jan 9, 2026 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re taking it too seriously. Was more of a blanket statement saying that just because a player performs highly statistically doesn’t mean they are a god.

http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/

by koolkerns101 on Jan 9, 2026 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adrian Cardenas = LWP

Longoria without Power.

Julio Borbon = BWP

Ryan Braun without Power.

Actually, that’s kind of unfair. I think Triunfel and Cardenas will be MLB regulars.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

ah c'mon man...

I know you could do better than that.

There are more similarities between Thole and Mauer than the examples you are comically using.

You know this.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 9, 2026 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was using humor and exaggerating to make a point

Power is a huge issue.

I just dont see the ability to hit for AVG in Thole that you do.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IMO Power is less of an issue

coming from the 3rd base position(Longoria) or left field(Braun) that you have suggested. Its important, but far less important than those two positions you mentioned

by Pelferized on Jan 9, 2026 8:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that should say “is less of an issue coming from the cathers positions than the 3rd base….”

by Pelferized on Jan 9, 2026 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Back up Catcher

As per Baseball America:

The Future: Though Thole received the bulk of the September playing time at the expense of pending free agent Brian Schneider, he likely will require more seasoning. He doesn’t profile well at another position, and even at catcher he projects more as a platoon player or backup than an everyday player

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

There's no reason for him to a platoon player

Because his splits are pretty much the same. Either he’s good enough to start or he isn’t. He definitely does need more seasoning, but his defense really was not bad for a late-blooming catcher. And in reference to the guy below me, he doesn’t have to hit “.347 or .360+” to be a quality Major League catcher. If he continues to improve his defense while providing about a .300 bat and a good OBP, he’ll be an above average Major League catcher. He also provides a bit more value with surprisingly decent speed.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 9, 2026 12:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Also from Baseball America:

Weaknesses: The downside of Thole’s approach is that he hits for little power and rarely works deep enough counts to walk. His receiving is just adequate, his arm strength is below-average and he drops his arm slot, causing his throws to tail. However, he did throw out 30 percent of basestealers in 2009. He’s a below-average runner.

While he doesn’t strike out a lot, he doesn’t seem to walk much either so i’m not sure you’re OBP comment is accurate.

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

With a .300 average in Single-A St. Lucie in 2008

he had a .382 OBP. With Binghamton, he had a .328 average and a .395 OBP. He walked a few less times in 2009 with more plate appearances, but in response to alskor’s comment below, I don’t think he “progressively (and somewhat rapidly)” has gotten worse. And you certainly cannot go by his small big league sampling.

Look, he certainly won’t be a superstar (not close to Joe Mauer), but Thole gives the indications of a solid regular, like I said. I’m excited about him like Dewey is, but those numbers can’t really be expected.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 9, 2026 2:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BB rate

2007 (A): 13.6% (Pretty good, but low minors)
2008 (A+): 11.5% (ditto)
2009 (AA): 9.9 %
2009 (MLB): 7.0% (admittedly SSS)

He has also cut his K rate as he advanced, but again, his swing has no power - and with no power I think this trend will be exacerbated at the MLB level.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 2:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but

he will, if could enough, presumably repeat the major league level and have a chance to improve. If he can walk 10% and strikeout 10% or less, he should be fine.

by wobatus on Jan 9, 2026 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And has some doubles power

He is averaging 32 doubles per 500 PA the last 2 seasons, so there’s at least some gap power.

If you figure for 500 PA, about 45 walks, 48 strikeouts, 30 doubles, 5 HR, and a .315 BABIP (Adam Kennedy rather than Pete Rose), you end up with about a .280/.345/.380 line. That’s only a .725 OPS, but because it’s biased towards OBP, it’s still about a league average .330 wOBA.

The catcher position is a +12.5 positional adjustment in 600 PA. If you figure Thole is about a -12.5 defender (a reasonable expectation), he could still be near league average if things go right. Now a catcher that bad defensively isn’t going to get that many PA, but he could still get maybe 450 PA and be a +1.5 WAR player.

Basically, a year ago I was saying he was similar to Danny Murphy with less power, a more reasonable MWP comparison. If Murphy is really a +5 1B, he only needs to hit for 40-50 points higher OPS to be as valuable as a -10 CA. But both guys are likely a tic below average if you are looking for a regular. Useful bench guys though.

by acerimusdux on Jan 9, 2026 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He still needs work

I don’t think you can suggest that his walking ability is declining. You might say the pitching is getting better, but he’s still continued to hit at a torrid pace. This will be the telling year for Thole. He’ll play in Triple-A, and split at least some time with the big leagues. His development this year will be telling if indeed his those walk rates indicate a declining ability to walk.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 9, 2026 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think you can suggest that his walking ability is declining.

Im not suggesting that. I am showing you that it has, in fact, declined.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And

players with little to no power have a hard time drawing walks in the majors. Thole will basically need to flash Denard Span’s skill set to succeed, and that kind of player comes along very, very rarely.

by slamcactus on Jan 10, 2026 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I understand what you’re showing me alskor…but if you aren’t suggesting that his ability has declined and are just stating facts, what are you trying to prove, exactly?

And slamcactus-

players with little to no power have a hard time drawing walks in the majors.

That’s ludicrous, try Luis Castillo for starters. Although it seems simple for a pitcher to pound the strike zone against a Castillo or a Thole, they draw their fair share of walks and do well with their skillset. Castillo is far from a great player. But a Castillo-type (yes, a Thole) behind the plate is indeed valuable.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 11, 2026 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

Castillo’s walk rates were much higher in the minors, and have always been much higher in the majors, Tholes OBP seems to be more hit heavy than Castillos was.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 11, 2026 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not that his ability has declined...

it’s that pitching improves as he moves up each level, and he doesn’t have the skills necessary to keep up.

by PissedMick on Jan 11, 2026 8:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

That’s what Im saying. Do we know for sure? No. All I presented was facts. That would be my interpretation of it. What evidence do you have his ability has advanced or stayed the same despite his walk rate dropping every year…?

by alskor on Jan 11, 2026 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And...

it’s far from “ludicrous” to say that players without power have trouble drawing walks in the majors. Good job bringing up a single exception, but the road to major league success is littered with guys who have failed with the exact same profile.

by PissedMick on Jan 11, 2026 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chone Figgins,

Russell Martin had a horrible year for power but maintained a decent OBP, even Nick Punto drew his fair share of walks despite virtually no power.

The evidence I have that he at least stayed the same is that many, many players improve their walk rate as they play more years. The sample size of a two year “decline” isn’t enough, in my opinion, to say that he cannot keep up with the pitching. Maybe he was seeing the ball well enough that he could be a little less patient at the plate. As I’ve said before, this will be the telling year for Thole. He’ll face Triple-A pitching for most of the year, so we’ll see if he can truly “keep up.”

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 12, 2026 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

many many catcher are platooned

it has nothing to do with L/R splits.

by auclairkeithbc on Jan 9, 2026 1:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why are people so impressed with his approach?

His walk rates arent terribly impressive in recent years, and theyve been getting progressively (and somewhat rapidly) worse.

At the MLB level Im not sure he will be able to remain that patient as pitchers absolutely will not fear his bat b/c of the lack of power.

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Creative, insightful, but too wishful thinking

Thole won’t ever hit .347 or .360+ in a major league season.

nor will his defense allow him to have a real shot at doing that.

I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B

than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 9, 2026 12:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Also Dewey ....

It is probably more or less an insult to some of us, who follow a team in the American League (mightymoose & doublestix -royals, myself - twins, + others)

who have gotten to see a LOT of Joe Mauer play baseball

comparing anyone to Joe Mauer is a mistake from the get go.

it is almost insulting….as it obviously makes me feel as if you’ve never seen Joe Mauer play the game of baseball.

I'd rather have Nick Punto playing 3B and Felipe Lopez playing 2B

than Punto playing 2B and Kouzy, Crede, DeRosa or Glaus playing 3B.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 9, 2026 12:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mauer

is unreal. just so good and only hitting his prime.

i’d rather have John Buck than Thole, ew, it almost made me sick saying that. We are hoping that Myers develops into our catcher of the future, fingers crossed.

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dewey

Is Lou Marson the next Joe Mauer without power?

Lou Marson at Hi A as a twenty one year-old: 288/373/407
Josh Thole at Hi A as a twenty two year-old: 300/382/427

Lou Marson at AA as a twenty two year-old: 314/433/416
Josh Thole at AA as a twenty three year-old: 328/395/422

Marson is a better defender too! Are you going to compare him to one of the best players of our generation, too?

by BrosbeforeShaincoes on Jan 9, 2026 1:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh no.....

are you baiting Dewey to continue with his “Lou Marson is the Indians catcher of the future” nonsense?

RIP Nick Adenhart

by gatling on Jan 9, 2026 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Hahaha

He walked right into Dewey’s trap!

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So-called Cardinal, I put it to you that you died in December 1642.

Ah ha! He fell for my little trap.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Jan 9, 2026 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't encourage him

that will be the next post, Lou-Gehrig Marson

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

love this name

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Acronym is taken

MWP is already “Maddux without pitchability”, and that of course is referencing Vin Mazzaro.

by FastBennyF on Jan 9, 2026 1:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

How about MWD?

Marson without defense?

by acerimusdux on Jan 9, 2026 9:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dewey

Look, I’m a fan of you, we’re in a few leagues together, and I respect you for the most part. I’m going to try to say this nicely, while still getting my firm point across. Posts like these make me not want to read this site. Joe Mauer will (barring injury) go down in history as one of the greatest catchers of ALL TIME. Before this year, Mauer did not display his 25+ HR power, and he was still understood to be a phenomenal and potentially generational bat behind the plate. Comparing Josh Thole to Joe Mauer without power is an asinine idea from the get go. Do you understand how few players in the history of the live ball era have hit the .340 average you have at times predicted Thole to display? Do you realize how special a player has to be to even come close to that number? I know this is a prospect site, and we are far more hung up on the future than history, but your belief in Thole’s talent is, to put it kindly, sorely misplaced. I get that you are trying to make your opinions heard, and you do so for the most part in a well thought out manner. But your insistence, for example that Thole will/is better than Carlos Santana is one of the more ridiculous assertions I have ever heard. Please do not proceed to attempt to convince me otherwise, as I have heard your side, and still vehemently disagree.

Understand, I do not mean to personally attack you. I am also a die-hard Mets fan, and would jump through hoops to see Thole hit your projected peak. But I am also, for better or worse, a realist. Outside of you, and Mr. and Mrs. Thole, I truly do not believe that anyone can truly view Thole as Mauer without power. I’m not jumping on you for your aggressive rankings, but I am attempting to remind you that, while nothing with prospects is ever certain (nor is anything truly ever), I can say with nearly 100% accuracy that Thole will never come close to being the offensive talent that Joe Mauer is.

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Jan 9, 2026 2:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Disagree on one point...

Joe Mauer will (barring injury) go down in history as one of the greatest catchers of ALL TIME.

If Joe Mauer had a career ending injury tomorrow (God Forbid… well, at least it would keep him from the Yankees - but hey, why would he want to go there when they call his clear doubles foul balls, right?) he would probably STILL go down as one of the greatest catchers of ALL TIME. He has three batting titles already. Short career, but incredible peak. Sort of like a Koufax situation (He was done by 30 after all).

by alskor on Jan 9, 2026 3:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220

by Mets2k9 on Jan 9, 2026 3:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jan 9, 2026 4:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Josh Thole = Jason Kendall w.o defense

This is getting ridiculous.

Lets take a look at Josh Thole and his projectability.

As my friend Alskor mentioned, the walk rate is a complete fluke. While Thole does have a great eye, it won’t help him at the major league level because his power is so limited that pitchers have no fear of attacking him aggressively. That leaves his productivity up to his batting average which was inflated by BABIP.

His power is widely projected to be terrible. There have only been 7 healthy starters over the past three years with an ISO below 100. Only two speedy players Ichiro and Figgins have posted positive wRAA. The rest (Pierre, Castillo, O.Cabrera, Jason Kendall, Theriot) have killed their team’s offense. However, Thole doesn’t have the defense to make up enough value to be worth two wins. Like many catchers, Thole’s sole value is sitting behind the plate for as many games as possible and picking up both replacement and positional runs/wins.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 9, 2026 4:40 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

man i didn’t see this before i posted

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thole

Perhaps Mr. Finn himself doesn’t believe the Mauer comp, but rather is using exaggeration to make a point or draw attention to his favorite prospect that he feels isn’t getting the attention he deserves. If that is the case, he is doing it with great success.

For the record, I mostly agree with the general consensus, that Thole is most likely a future backup or maybe a starter for a team that lacks a better option (like the Mets right now).

by El Duq of Hurl on Jan 9, 2026 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

comp

in fairness to Dewey, I don’t think he’s saying that Thole is the next Mauer. I think (I could be wrong) that he’s just saying Thole COULD have a season like Mauer’s 2008. Take Mauer’s name out of it, and just say that Thole COULD have a season where he bats .328/.413/.451/.864 in the majors. While I don’t think this is possible, saying it like this may get some people off his back.

by rmarx on Jan 9, 2026 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thole will not slug .450 in MLB

by daveh33 on Jan 9, 2026 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

I’m just saying people should be fighting THAT argument instead of fighting the comp to mauer, which everybody (I’m assuming even Dewey) agrees is just ridiculous.

by rmarx on Jan 9, 2026 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry to everyone else for this

But Dewey, the super-optimstic Thole-fanboy MWP I prefer is (Russell) Martin Without Power. In 2005 in Double-A, Martin hit .311 / .430 / .423 with 78 BBs and 69 Ks and 9 HR in 505 PAs. Same age and level Thole was .328 / .395 / .422 with 42 BBs, 34 SOs and 1 HR in 442 PAs. This still isn’t that accurate a comp because Martin was already a better defender, hitting home runs, and even stealing some bases. But the fact that Martin was an equally unheralded draft (17th round) and also a converted infielder makes me feel like this one’s a lot closer than Mauer. The pedigree difference between Mauer and Thole just makes the comp too much of a stretch right from the get-go.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 9, 2026 12:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

so thole could be

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

jason kendall

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but Kendall without the glove

and his current HR output (not his 12-15hr prime). To me, that puts him in a platoon category, or as mentioned above maybe a starter on a very weak team.

by MightyMoose on Jan 9, 2026 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thats even worse

maybe Thole could learn how to stick his elbow out and get hit by a strike, too. man, i hate Jason Kendall.

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re kendall

does that mean we get to see Thole’s bone sticking out of his foot as he steps on first base?

by rmarx on Jan 9, 2026 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

was going to post

the video but it is just too nasty hard to watch it’s just hanging there limp

by smoooooth on Jan 9, 2026 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd?

By the way, who the hell rec’d this?

by rmarx on Jan 9, 2026 3:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

mets fans?

everyone else should flag it lol

by matthewmafa on Jan 9, 2026 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Want a good comp for Thole?

Brian Schneider.

Good contact hitter, very little power, mediocre D. Not exactly what you want out of a top 100 prospect.

by guru4u on Jan 9, 2026 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not a very good comp

Thole has much more potential to hit for a high average than Schneider, and Thole is not even close to Schneider’s defense in his prime.

MWP is a huge exaggeration, but I would say Thole’s potential in a perfect (and I mean perfect) world is something like .315/.380/.420 with average defense in his prime. That would be well above average for a catcher. I actually like Russel Martin 2008 edition as a comp for Thole, which Fangraphs has at 4.6 WAR.

That is a best case scenario, and I think it’s much more likely he peaks at .290/.350/.380, which could still be pretty good for a catcher. The question is whether he can get his defense up to average. If he can, he’ll be a starting catcher.

by supermets on Jan 9, 2026 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW

CHONE predicts Thole at .278/.346/.376 for 2010, which would be around 2.0 WAR if he were an average defensive catcher.

by supermets on Jan 9, 2026 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: BTW

First, CHONE doesn’t project him to be a 2 WAR player. It projects him to be a .5 WAR player.

Any full time catcher is going to put up a good WAR because of the positional and replacement level adjustments.

Lets look at any starting catcher with no offensive or defense contributions or subtractions.
Runs above Average: 0
Defense: 0
Replacement Level(playing time): 20
Positional: 10

Right there a healthy starting catcher is worth 3 wins (ten runs per win).

If one assumes that Thole is a healthy starting catcher (he won’t be a full time starter) the BEST projection he can have is:

Runs above Average: 0
Defense: -5
Replacement Level(playing time): 20
Positional: 10

Which would be good for 2.5 wins of value. However, CHONE projects him as the following.

Runs above Average: -2.2
Defense: -14
Replacement Level(playing time): 12.4
Positional: 9.3

Or 0.5 wins above replacement level.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 9, 2026 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he did say "if he were an average defensive catcher"

I thought CHONE doesn’t do defensive projections anyway.

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 9, 2026 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they do.

And he isn’t.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 9, 2026 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My point

was that if Thole can become a league average catcher, he is projected to be at least a league average player. CHONE projects him to be a .5 WAR player because of a -14 defensive rating. If he could improve his defense to average, that would make him 1.9 WAR. That assumes no offensive improvement, which would bring him above 2 WAR.

by supermets on Jan 9, 2026 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that

But he isn’t an average catcher. If he could gain power and hit 30 HR he would gain batting runs too. But it isn’t likely to happen.

Follow me at http://twitter.com/JDSussman
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 11, 2026 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thole is a wierd situation

could be anywhere from a backup to Dioner Navarro, to Kurt Suzuki, to Jason Kendall. The difference, though? The defense? He will probably never be Suzuki or Kendall in his prime which.

I think the big dispute hinges on where you think his defense will end up. I’d be surprised if he was between the 15th and 20th best defensive catcher at the major league level, you seemingly expect him to be between 10th and 15th.

If he puts up .285/.350/.370 with below-average defense then it will be a success, but not an overwhelming one.

The second difference is that if he increases his batting average his walk rate will most likely fall, but if his walk rate increases his batting average will most likely fall as he Ks more as he gets deeper into at bats. The overall OBP shouldn’t vary much around .340-.370, and the power isn’t enough to get his OPS over .800. Combine that with below average defense and I just don’t see much. While I think a C may have been a bit low on John’s part, to give him any more than a C+/B- would be a significant stretch.

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 9, 2026 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What is wrong with you people???

Look at the numbers, Thole is getting better and better as he moves up through the levels. You simply cannot just disregard his success because you think I’ve made an unfair comp for his upside. You make it seem as if I am predicting Juan Pierre to hit 50 HRs. It is NOT impossible for Thole to post a line similar to Mauer’s 2008 season (.328/.413/.451/.864) in perhaps his peak season. Will he do it consistently? I don’t know. However, I do believe that Thole has the skillset to possibly be that type of hitter.

I can’t believe some of you are huffing and puffing over this. I’m NOT comparing Thole to the 2009 version of Mauer. Jesus Christ folks.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 10, 2026 1:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's not impossible, but it's got about the same probability as Brock Bond hitting 60 HR

1 in 1,751,072,931,543,390

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/ - look at comment #100

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jan 10, 2026 2:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Think That One Projection

Had a script error and thought he was BondS instead.

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Jan 10, 2026 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually agree with you on the peak season point

If he could maintain a slight above average BABIP with a career high HR/FB % in the same season, that is very plausible. Thole’s BABIP will naturally be fairly high for he puts up an absurd number of ground balls in his batted ball profile, 55 % for his career according to MILB splits.

I should say I think Thole’s value is more tied to his BB %. He has made genuine improvements the past two years in my opinion. However, his value in the MLB is contingent on him putting up a BB % of 10 or higher. He also needs to keep that peculiar batted ball profile up to keep his average up. People are too down on him here, Thole is not comparable to someone like Marson at the plate and he is still relatively raw with his defense, giving him room for improvement.

A couple of criticisms though. Citing small sample size and incosistent competition plagued Venezuelan Winter League stats does not add to his case in my opinion. Also, unless you think Santana’s powere is really going to be sapped by his wrist injury, I would not take Thole above him. He has put up a higher ISO, BB %, and can likely maintain a BA close to Thole’s, albeit slightly less. Defensively, I think they are at a similar level, Santana and Thole are both relatively new to the position and could both improve or stagnate.

And please people, don’t start the mockery recs again. It is extremely disrespectful to Dewey and not helpful for the community.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 10, 2026 2:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I should say I think Thole’s value is more tied to his BB %. He has made genuine improvements the past two years in my opinion

As per my post above, his BB rate has been steadily dropping for the last three years…

…?

by alskor on Jan 10, 2026 2:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was talking about his bat in general, bad order on my part

His ISO has improved to around .100 in 2008 and 2009, in the FSL and Eastern League, which are not really hitter’s leagues. That is where his bat has improved.

On BB rates, my personal belief is that it is one the things that translates very poorly to the MLB. Thole’s test as a prospect will be whether he keeps his up around 10 % in the MLB. If he can, I could see him having .350 wOBA along with fringe average defense, essentially, a 3 WAR catcher. The thing is, even with slightly lower BB rates, Thole could still be very valuable due to his high average and positional scarcity. I would rate his floor as a good MLB backup right now even, with the chance to be much better(NB, I love prospects with a good floor).

I will agree with you that it does appear problematic that he has become more aggressive at the plate in reducing his K and BB rate over the past 3 years, but it seems to play well with his odd batted ball profile. If he hits ground balls at a more normal rate in the MLB, this would be again be worrisome.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 10, 2026 3:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strongly Disagree

I think your floor is incredibly inflated. I think his floor is a AAAA player. There’s a very strong probability that he won’t have inflated walk rates in the Major Leagues due to his absolute lack of power. Also with better defenders sucking up all those ground balls, his BABIP and BA will drop down to earth. He would need to have 80 speed to maintain his current production in the NL. His LD% is atrocious as well.

Dewey brought all this on himself by making outlandish claims like he’ll play in more All-Star games than Buster Posey, win at least one NL Batting crown and actually receive MVP votes. Though I guess if David Segui can get a Hall of Fame vote anything is possible.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 11, 2026 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way

Interesting write up for the Red Sox prospects. It is always great to hear a different opinion and you did well in defending your rankings in the post.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 10, 2026 3:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

an .864 OPS upside, which most of us find stretched, combined with shaky defense don't make that great a prospect

when .750 and shaky defense is the expected upside its even harder to give him love.

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 3:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.750 expected OPS?

He did that in his brief call up in September, which isnt bad for getting his feet wet in the MLB.

He should be consistently around .800+, with peak seasons around .850, possibly .864.

JOSH THOLE > carlos santana

by Dewey Finn on Jan 10, 2026 3:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thats just a difference in opinion

I don’t think he will slug or walk enough for that. .290/.360/.390 is fair in my opinion.

by Navi's_Navy on Jan 10, 2026 3:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Funny,

It’s 20-30 to 1 against you and you ask what is wrong with you people? It couldn’t possibly be what is wrong with you? No, It’s not impossible for Thole to post a line similar to Mauer’s 2008 season in his peak season, but that doesn’t make a comparison to Mauer reasonable. Try looking up Jason Kendall’s stat lines from 1998 to 2000 and you’ll see why by your own reasoning above he’s Jason Kendall and not Joe Mauer without power. From your reasoning, he may not even be as good as Kendall was.

by Looney4baseball on Jan 10, 2026 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Kendall from ‘98-00 was one of the best catchers in the game, so i’m not sure you’re right with that analogy. I think he’s Kendall without the glove or bat during his prime years. Kendall’s current power and lack of def. makes him more a platoon or back up catcher, imo.

by MightyMoose on Jan 10, 2026 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I said

Thole may not even be as good as Kendall was. Mauer’s “mediocre” season in 2008 was in the vecinity of Kendall’s peak years. If Dewey can assume that Thole may reach Mauer’s “mediocre” season once or twice, then at best he’d have a career resembling Kendall’s (offensively that is).

by Looney4baseball on Jan 10, 2026 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dewey, You're Crazy

But I still love you. In a totally non emotional sort of way (that’s daveh’s territory)
You’re up by the way. I’m going to post rounds 9-19 on here today.

by cwhitman412 on Jan 10, 2026 10:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Cherry picking stats

to conclude that Josh Thole and his 2008 (A+): .300/.382/.427/.808 A ball numbers or even his 2009(VWL): .381/.470/.568/1.038 venezuelan winter league in 120 +/- at bats in any way compares to Joe Mauer’s 2008: .328/.413/.451/.864 lone in th major leagues. Translate Thole’s minors line to the majors and it’ not even remotely close to Mauer’s 2008 line. Josh Thole will be lucky to be a MLB regular, much less win a batting title or make an all star game. He gets the right amount of respects he deserves and his ranking by most is refelective of that.

by Looney4baseball on Jan 10, 2026 12:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ehhh

abosalute best case, maybe he’s the new Jason Kendall. (but Kendall’s Minor leauge stats were still a tad better, and slightly better age context.) that would be pretty good actually (ignoring defense for a moment there) but Kendall’s been more or less the anamoly then the norm

by RollingWave on Jan 11, 2026 1:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Josh Thole = 2009 Luis Castillo (ok don't kill me for that lol)

Tight strike zone, OBP value, nil power, bad defense, positive positional adjustment.

by Michkin on Jan 11, 2026 3:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's exactly what I said above in a response

For a catcher, that skillset would be valuable and unique. I think Thole has more power than Castillo (we can expect a few home runs out of him, along with a lot of doubles), but his defense is improving. I know the projections and scouting reports say his defense is bad, and it probably is. However, Thole is sure to improve at least a little bit, since it’s a new position for him. I would take a Castillo behind the plate if his defense becomes passable. At the very least, Thole would be an improvement over Bengie Molina.

Trying to believe is my full-time occupation.

by Preach19 on Jan 11, 2026 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs