Brian Matusz
His body of work this year is quite small and his mechanics are a work in progress, having said that here goes ...
Fastball - sits 91-92. Occasionally hits 93 or 94, more often hits 88-90. Fairly flat with no jump at the end and no big movement either. But hides it well and it appears a couple mph faster. And something that functions as a flat 94mph from a leftie is nothing to sneeze at. Locates it well and down in the zone.
Curve - 78mph with more of a slurve action. As season wore on less slurve action. I'll get to that more under mechanics. Seemed to locate it fairly well in the zone. The slurve type did get hit more than it should unless it was well out of the zone. I think it's a quality pitch because of the location and his willingness to come inside.
Change - Count me unimpressed. Their scouting director loved Matusz and said he had the best curve and change in the draft. Maybe that was because it was a pitching weak draft. But his change has very little movement. Yeah he can locate it but that's because it's fairly flat. At least it is deceptive, but watch out when facing hitters looking for the change.
Slider - Doesn't have that much action. I do like how he isn't afraid to ride it in on the hands of righties. If he does get some real action he won't be able to do this though, either too many HBP or bounced pitches will occur. I've heard average to plus - from within the organization, and show-me pitch from others. I'd lean somewhere in the middle. It doesn't have that much to it but it's consistent and he knows when and where to throw it.
Mechanics - I try to keep away from this and probably will in the future. Partially because I'm lazy. Ok, mostly. But also many pitchers really don't make drastic changes and it's so hard to predict.
Matusz was more of a 3/4 pitcher and Baltimore has been changing this. You can see in just about any game his delivery is somewhat erratic as he occasionally reverts to his old arm slot. The slurve versus the more downward curve is the most obvious. As he gets used to this I expect his control to get better.
He doesn't get much separation and is a part of the reason you don't see as much velocity as he could get. Another is his awkward stiff landing and release. Watch the video below and focus on Kershaw. Notice how Kershaw lands fairly softly on his lead leg and only after landing does he unleash - getting extra power and using the leg to stabilize. Of course on the video you will see Matusz hiding the ball very well. As he gets more upright will that go away? Maybe a little, but with the apparent late hand break I think not.
Prognosis - I really like his locating the fastball low and the late hand break hides the ball well. I like how he works his pitches, coming inside on non-traditional pitches. My big concern is to righties where his change is flat and his curve is either slurvy (great on 0-2 counts) or not that hard breaking but better location.
I think he will be a solid pitcher and can be a #3 with a high 3 ERA. And more likely will have more of his career as a #4.I like pitchability. But when your location is off or one pitch can't be located then he will get lit up. Aces and #2's have to put up solid numbers in half a dozen games or more where they don't have their best stuff.
If his mechanics change to get the velocity he has in his arm then all bets are off.
Mechanics video (Courtesy of Baseball Intellect)
http://www.baseball-intellect.com/college-draft-brian-matusz/
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request: clayton kershaw
end of the year he developed a new slider… it was a great pitch for him down the stretch and he was great with it… your posts are great btw
by matthewmafa on Jan 28, 2026 1:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
uh oh...
Look what I did with my request for Matusz! Now everybody’s going to make requests - you’re in trouble now pedrophile! I guess it proves that everybody enjoys these writeups!
by rmarx on Jan 28, 2026 9:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’d like to see one of these on Kershaw. Also great job.
by Ivdown on Jan 28, 2026 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
article is 2 years old lol
matusz is much improved since then.
by bravitos5122 on Jan 28, 2026 2:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No
this is based on his starts in the majors at the end of the 2009 season.
If you disagree please give some details of what you saw rather than “is much improved”. Put your neck on the line qualifying exactly what he throws, your prognosis, etc.
by pedrophile on Jan 28, 2026 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
article
I think he’s talking about the link that you put, not your post.
by rmarx on Jan 28, 2026 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my bad
Yeah, the article is old. But at least it gives you a good view from the hitters point of view seeing how he hides the ball.
by pedrophile on Jan 28, 2026 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you!
for answering my request about Matusz. I’m actually surprised by a lot of what you said, but you know a lot more than I do! I was most surprised to read that you think he can be a solid #3 but mostly a #4. I was expecting #2 or #1, but it definitely backs your writeup. It seems that you’re impressed with his ability to locate pitches but not so much with the pitches themselves. I have a lot of high hopes for him, so I hope he does make the adjustments that you stated in your post and becomes more than what you envision. Thanks for your point of view!
By the way, I think these posts are great!!!!
by rmarx on Jan 28, 2026 9:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting writeup, thanks for taking the time to do it
I am a little surprised at what you see for Matusz’s future, seems to be less than what most outlets project for him, but they all certain have their misses every year. I’m curious if you put together a top 100 list of your own, where would Matusz fall?
Again, thanks for the writeup. I definitely enjoy this series you’re putting out here for us to read.
RIP Nick Adenhart
by gatling on Jan 28, 2026 2:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Very impressive work
Read your other work on other pitchers also.
If I could throw in a request, it would be on what your thoughts are on Baumgarner and Latos.
by HuskerFan on Jan 28, 2026 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Project & Matusz
It might surprise, or even anger, some where I rank prospects. A large part of that is because I don’t add a lot of projection. I write mostly what I see. I do add some projection where I see something that is occurring and feel comfortable it will happen.
For example: Matusz is changing his delivery. And while occasionally he has lapses it’s pretty easy to see with normal development it will be more consistent.
It’s possible he makes more tweaks to his delivery and gets more break and more velocity. But changing mechanics isn’t easy. It can cause injuries by stressing the muscles and joints differently. And more important to us is it can affect the 3 critical pitching criteria: Release point (for command), Velocity, Spin.
Take Billingsley. Cleanup his cross body action. That will take away some of his spin and he won’t get that tailing action. It might even affect his torque and you won’t get as much velocity. He will be more healthy but it might be irrelevant. It’s so hard to predict.
So it can happens. Players do improve. But it’s rarely part of “natural progression”. And it’s anything but predictable.
by pedrophile on Jan 28, 2026 5:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I completely understand
and always enjoy reading peoples’ points of view. As far as angering people where prospects are ranked….who cares? What you feel is what you feel and how you see it is how you see it. People can complain (and will, because they/we are people), but who cares? Throw your ideas out there (like you’re doing) and it gives us something else to think about.
by rmarx on Jan 28, 2026 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
love these posts
type of info i’m coming to this site to get. congrats to you, sir
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Jan 29, 2026 9:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
"Watch Out"
“…but watch out when facing hitters looking for the change.”
The problem is, hitters won’t be able to “look” for the change as he has 4 pitches that are all as good as the next. Yes, watch out when the hitter is 1 for 4, but also watch out when the hitter is 3 for 4 in the opposite direction.
I have to question your methodology. In the Anderson post you wrote off pitch f/x, which is fine, but then you commented later that you don’t actually watch every pitch, just specific examples. Maybe you are watching most of the pitches, maybe you aren’t, but unless you are watching every pitch (which pitch f/x does), I’m not certain it is appropriate to discount pitch f/x.
Now, breaking down your comments, wouldn’t you argue that location is just as important as movement, specifically for a change up. i think where pitchers get hurt is when they are not deceptive - which matusz is - when they lack movement, and location.
Another thing I question is your statement that a #3 would have an ERA in the high 3’s. THT did a study a while back and #3’s averaged in the 4.30, with only the best teams posting an era below that figure. #2’s are typically in the high 3’s with second division “ace” pitchers in the 4’s.
Further, with that study in mind, I can’t imagine you truly believe Matusz is more of a #4 pitcher. I recognize there is a lot of hype being pushed in his direction, but by league average numbers, we’re still looking at a #2 pitcher.
by bheikoop on Jan 29, 2026 8:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
respectfully disagree
1a) Hitters do indeed look for a pitch. When Zito stopped locating his curve hitters ignored it and only offered at the fastball. Some hitters are better at hitting changes. Some look for a pitch more than others. But it does happen. I’m shocked you believe hitters don’t do this.
1b) He doesn’t have 4 pitches all of the same value. That slider is definitely not in the same category.
2) I wrote off the usage of pitch f/x break to determine the quality of the pitch. A curveball that has plenty of lateral movement is NOT better than a curve that has more downward movement. The report I referred to stated he had the best slider (it cited both breaks x & y). I did not write off pitch f/x
2b) Well, I haven’t seen every start every pitch thrown by the pitcher. Neither has any scout. Ask any scout and they will tell you Greinke has a better slider than Anderson. Again, who wrote off pitch f/x.
3) Yes, location is very important. And yes if a pitcher lacks deception and movement they get killed. Matusz has deception. But many hitters will get fooled only to hold back and make a solid swing - at a flat change-up. It’s not a bad pitch. It’s not plus. It’s solid. If he uses it judiciously it can play up. If he features it then it can hurt him.
4) Yes, you are correct. I don’t know how I fell into that one. I think he could move between the 3.80 ERA pitcher and the 4.30 ERA pitcher. I think he has a bit more growing pains this year though. And I really think he needs to cleanup those mechanics to be at that level.
But I just can’t think he will be a #2 without cleaning up his mechanics and tightening his curve.
by pedrophile on Jan 29, 2026 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hitters not only
look for certain pitches, they look for them in specific locations
"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry
"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven
by smoooooth on Jan 30, 2026 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
matusz has a plus changeup
good try
by bravitos5122 on Jan 30, 2026 10:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
based on what?
It’s certainly more than a show-me pitch. And he has good arm action with it. Just not the movement you would like. I wouldn’t be surprised if it becomes a plus pitch, just not there yet.
by pedrophile on Jan 30, 2026 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
based on his pitching...
I saw him twice in AA (plus all his ML starts), and there were only 3-4 times when the hitter made something remotely resembling solid contact on it. The pitch extremely deceptive with good -although not great - movement. That, plus his ability to locate it = plus pitch.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Jan 30, 2026 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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