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Kris Medlen

When I first started watching Medlen pitch I thought I was going to kill BJB for requesting him. I love watching good pitching, and just hate watching pitchers succeed due to the ineptitude of the opposing lineup. And watching a pither throw 89-90 without a lot of movement just doesn't excite me. But I started to get surprised when hitters didn't make the contact they should have.

 

Fastball - Starting it's around 89-90. Relief it's around 92-93. Sometimes there is pronounced tail action. Most often not a lot of movement. I've heard announcers mention late life. That's possible. I see the way he hides the ball making it harder to hit than it should be. He likes to challenge the hitters. And will go up in the zone. I love that. A guy throwing 89 going up in the zone and blowing away hitters. Why can't more pitchers watch him and learn?

 

Curve - Solid pitch. Has good but not great movement. Good location. Typically locates it very well down in the zone. It's a nice complementary pitch. The reason I would put it a tick below plus is the movement isn't tight enough for my liking. When he throws it in the zone it gets hit. Out of the zone it's fantastic. His location with it is excellent, but the numbers won't show that. He will throw it for a ball a lot because locating in the zone will hurt him. I like the pitch and his use of it. It probably plays up to a plus pitch right now. But if he needs to throw it for strikes more then it will hurt him.

 

Change - Again a solid pitch. Locates it very well. Not much movement is my complaint. But still a solid pitch. He uses it to RH hitters more than most do. I like that as well.

 

Being a small pitcher I was expecting to see over-throwing, tiring in later innings, lots of torque, etc. But he really works within his limits. Simple motion, good control. Works low in the zone but not afraid to go up with his fastball. Breaking pitches consistently down. Sometimes works backwards, another plus.

 

In the pen most of the damage against him was when working consecutive days. For someone that was starting to begin the season that is expected. He has fairly good command. But I see him throwing quite a few wild pitches. They won't appear on the box score, more often it was meant to be a low fastball that becomes head height. I'll write this off as a young pitcher going through growing pains.

 

I don't see a reason he can't be a solid starter for Atlanta. I think if he loses a couple mph then he will be forced into the pen however.

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Don't see why that would force him to the pen

there are lots of righties who can start with sub-nineties fastballs.

Medlen seems to have good movement and control, plus he might have some deception in his delivery. Don’t see why he can’t be a starter.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 31, 2026 1:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking about this when trying to evaluate David Holmberg.

How many pitchers can you think of that broke into the Majors with sub-90’s velocity?

http://twitter.com/FutureSox

by The Big Hurt on Jan 31, 2026 1:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good one

by pedrophile on Jan 31, 2026 2:08 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Most of the guys I listed are lefthanded.

Some are not.

I don’t think Medlen will lose 2 MPH on his fastball. That’s something that either happens over a long period of time or happens due to injury.

One righty who broke into the league with sub-nineties fastballs was Shaun Marcum. I don’t know why people have the impression that guys need to sit in the low-nineties and touch mid-nineties to be successful.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 31, 2026 2:43 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

or sinkerballers

The RHP who work much under 90 are usually using the 2-seamer or sinker. It’s very tough to pitch off a sub-90 4-seamer. But there are other ways. Shawn Marcum and Brian Bannister are guys who get away with it (partly) with good cutters (but also good secondary pitches).

by acerimusdux on Jan 31, 2026 4:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know why people have the impression that guys need to sit in the low-nineties and touch mid-nineties to be successful.

You don’t HAVE to, it just really helps. Medlen I dont care for - and its more than velocity.

Velocity correlates well with strikeouts. Typically, the harder you throw, the more guys you will strike out.

Strikeouts correlate well with success. Typically, the more strikeouts you get, the more successful you will be.

But Medlen’s problems go beyond velocity…

by alskor on Jan 31, 2026 1:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but there's enough data to warrant calling Medlen a strikeout pitcher.

Correlation does not imply causation. For example, a guy like Medlen can average over a K/9 over 10 in the Minors and over 9 in his brief Majors stint and have good command and control in the process.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 31, 2026 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mind expanding on what you see as Medlen's problems?

I’d like to hear your take on him and what you don’t like.

by nixa37 on Jan 31, 2026 4:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He makes Webster look tall.

Not that it’s a real negative, but it makes you wonder how well he’ll hold up going forward.

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Schmidtxc on Jan 31, 2026 9:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing major... I just don't think he's very good at anything

-Less than ideal mechanics
-Max effort delivery resulting in so-so velocities
-Overall stuff is pretty unimpressive (though I like his curve)
-Has trouble throwing the curve for strikes
-Fastball can straighten out
-Small stature/kind of frail

I think the overall package really fits better in middle relief or maybe as a swingman. I think some of his success is in hiding the ball well, and some of it is his control and pitchability making his stuff play up. Its hard to imagine his success continuing for very long or him solidifying his gains…

I dont dislike him. I just dont see anything special here.

by alskor on Feb 1, 2026 1:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm… I mean “non-closing reliever” more than “middle relief.”

I dont think he has relief ace stuff, but he could be a pretty good reliever. The way I said it sounded like i meant 5th inning mop up…

by alskor on Feb 1, 2026 1:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

Still, you have to be impressed by the strikeout numbers he’s putting up with what appears to be less than stellar stuff don’t you? It’d be one thing if he was a pitchability guy carving up low minors hitters, but he strunk out 10.5 per 9 in AAA and 9.5 per 9 in the majors. Personally, I think his fastball changeup combo plays up a lot better than he’s given credit for. The velocity and movement might not appear great, but there’s little question the results he gets with them are fantastic.

by nixa37 on Feb 1, 2026 10:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Its been 67 IP... and he only put up a 97 ERA+ (below average)

You know those poorly designed early flying machines with 5 levels of wings? When pushed off a cliff they appear to fly for a brief while…

by alskor on Feb 1, 2026 1:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you capable of saying anything without that (unjustified) mock outrage?

Its gotten really old.

Clearly, that isn’t the argument Im making. I was asked if I was impressed by his performance, I responded I wasnt all that impressed by a guy putting of a SSS of near average ERA+ in his first go around the majors and that I think he will regress due to his so-so stuff.

Two fewer runs and his ERA would have been <4.00.

Two MORE runs and his ERA would have been >4.50.

FIVE LESS runs and his ERA would have been <3.60!

TEN MORE runs and his ERA would have been >5.50!!!!

This sure is a fun game.

by alskor on Feb 1, 2026 2:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You were asked if you were impressed with his strikeouts

You countered with his ERA+ being some sort of demerit, which as your and my examples show is pointless.

It’s it perplexity, not outrage.

by aCone419 on Feb 1, 2026 2:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ERA+? Really?

That seems like sort of a cherry-picked stat to prove yourself justified. Everyone knows the fallibility of ERA and ERA+.

Medlen’s FIP was 3.35, and xFIP 3.70. I’d say that’s pretty solid for a rookie, and if you take out his first 5 or 6 appearances, where he was adjusting to the majors, he was pretty dominant.

by blindsided789 on Feb 1, 2026 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You're better than that

K rate stabilizes much quicker than ERA or ERA+ and as pointed out below Medlen favors much better in more advanced metrics, so using that to counter his K rate is below you.

Look, I wasn’t looking to start an argument on the subject or anything. Like I said, you made some good points, and I’m getting to the point where I tend to agree that Medlen’s future might be as an 8th inning guy as opposed to a SP.

At the same time, you can’t deny that the kid has shown himself to be very effective at getting strikeouts. It wasn’t just the 67 IP in the majors. He struck out 10.5 per 9 in 37.2 AAA IP this year after striking out a guy an inning in 120.1 IP in AA in 2008. The guy has shown an ability to K guys in the high minors, and so far it has carried over to the majors. There may be some reason that doesn’t continue in the future, but I doubt his ERA+ from this past season is going to have anything to do with it.

by nixa37 on Feb 2, 2026 8:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I would like to see him start

But there simply isn’t room in the Braves’ rotation right now. Hudson/Hanson/Lowe/Jurrjens/Kawakami is a pretty tough rotation to break into. The interesting question will be if they give him a shot if/when one of those starters goes down to injury.

by jar75 on Jan 31, 2026 1:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

at the moment, sure

And if he loses 2mph then what?

How many successful RHP that throw 87 can you name?

by pedrophile on Jan 31, 2026 1:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

without thinking too much

John Garland is one who is still getting paid

by uwbadger on Jan 31, 2026 2:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

replying to myself

First, I know its Jon. Garland also has the cutter which lets him get away with throwing the fastball slower than most. But, thinking more about this, there are very few righties that will sit below 90 mph that don’t have a ton of sink to their fastball. Medlen’s fastball is pretty straight and he’s not a guy that I see trying to pitch to contact.

Also, your writeup is pretty much what I expected. His strengths don’t necessarily rely with his stuff but more with how he uses his pitches. I think he’s going to have a hard time if he is a starter because I don’t think he’s going to be able to get hitters out the second and third time through the order. However he does know how to pitch and he has good enough secondary stuff that I am very interested to see how the Braves use him this season.

by uwbadger on Jan 31, 2026 3:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

There once was a guy named Maddux

Had a fair career sitting between 86 and 90

by JayhawkTom on Jan 31, 2026 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uggghhh

Why do people have to compare guys to Maddux? Some guys are just oddities and Maddux is one of them.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 31, 2026 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough, and agreed on the oddity part...

but not making a comparison to Maddux, but just sayin’ in response to “How many successful RHP that throw 87 can you name”

One.

by JayhawkTom on Jan 31, 2026 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

exception that proves the rule

You can succeed at that velocity as a RHP… if you have the control, movement, and intelligence of Greg Maddux.

by aCone419 on Jan 31, 2026 6:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

http://www.stevenellis.com/steven_ellis_the_complete/2009/02/wanna-see-greg.html

Look at his scouting reports before he was a star. His stuff was electric even if his velocity was not.

by pedrophile on Jan 31, 2026 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My favorite part:

“lacks overall control on all pitches…just has to get ahead of hitter more often.”

I guess Greg worked on that a little.

by PissedMick on Jan 31, 2026 6:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

lol

I loved that part.

by pedrophile on Jan 31, 2026 6:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

great post

the way you describe his strategy and willingness to attack hitters sounds a lot like Randy Wells, another guy without a whole lot of stuff who found success the same way last year

by PrincetonCubs on Jan 31, 2026 10:20 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Praise & Request

I don’t know who you are Pedrophile, but these calm, analytical pitcher-profiles of yours are most compelling. Please do a Top Ten list of m.l. pitchers who you think are undervalued going into 2010….

Many thanks. A new reader.

F.

by Fanthead on Jan 31, 2026 5:12 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Always been a fan of Medlen's

but there is no place for him at this point in Atlanta’s rotation. Out of the pen, he’s quite a weapon as Braves fans learned last year. The stuff is good, not electric, but he really knows how to pitch. He changes speeds, locates, and goes right after hitters with a “closer mentality”. I think he could be a decent back-end starter or a real good 8th inning guy out of the pen.

R.I.P Jazz #6

by was385 on Jan 31, 2026 5:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’ve really liked Medlen for awhile now, but I think the Braves are going to keep him in the ‘pen where he profiles as a high-leverage guy. Medlen would also certainly have some value starting, but I think the Braves want to keep him in the bullpen if possible. I think he’s happy as long as he’s in the majors.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Feb 1, 2026 1:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Solid bullpen arm, can pitch a few innings at a time and spot start if needed. Good club house attitude, every team needs a guy like this.

"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host

by bwellnjonesco on Feb 1, 2026 9:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

killing me for the request

hey — no one NEEDS a writeup on Tim Lincecum. it might be sexy to see his scouting report written out, but everyone knows he’s good, and it’s not tough to see why. Medlen’s a much tougher question :)

actually, i’m surprised by how little support for Medlen there is on this site. if it had JUST been the minor league numbers, i’d totally agree — i thought he was shit when he first came up last year. but he’s striking out a LOT of people (even once as a starter) right out of the gate.

anyway, very interesting writeup. his stuff seems to me to lend itself much more to starting than relieving, but i definitely get the point about the already questionable velocity. (i’m a huge believer in the maxim about righties needing to at least START their careers at 90+ mph…..and even Maddux isn’t an example to the contrary.) the point about the curve needing to be out of the zone is interesting too, and could be a wrench in him starting.

i’ll be curious how he works out long-term. from your writeup, it seems like he has very little true “star” potential….but that the Ks could keep on coming, and that he might have a few successful years.

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 1, 2026 3:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Decent Soft-tossing righties

Bronson Arroyo averaged 3.1 WAR over 5 years throwing below 90 mph. A more diverse arsenal perhaps, but Medlen can succeed in his own way. harang throws only slightly above 90 mph and averaged about 5 war for 3 years. Rick Reed had several very good years, and his 2002 Twins eason he was at about 88 mph, and I don’t think he threw much harder with the Mets. David Bush is not quite as good as those guys but he did have a 3.8 WAR season and is an accepatble number 4 type. Bobby Jones was an ok starter for the Mets, couldn’t break a pane of glass.

I know I am cherry-picking. These are guys that just came to mind, and aren’t comps, just righthanders that more than got by throwing 90 mph or less. I think he will be a better reliever/spot starter. The strikeouts in AAA and the majors suggest he will survive. I know Alskor is merely saying he doesn’t excite him, and he probably will never ne an ace. I don’t think people are claiming otherwise, but I do think he could have a few 3-4 WAR seasons as a starter if he gets the chance, and a lot of teams would like that.

by wobatus on Feb 1, 2026 6:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I enjoyed the last par of your post. I think a fair number of the posters here dismiss a guy who doesn’t profile to be a future ace. When the reality is that true aces don’t come along everyday, and sometimes a guy is really only an ace for a stretch of their career. Usually right in their prime. There’s a lot of value in filling your staff with a young, cheap, effective guy like Medlen.

One thing to realize about Medlen is that this past season was his second as a full time pitcher, so he still has some real growth potential. He will be an interesting guy to follow.

by JFP on Feb 1, 2026 11:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs


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