Clay Buchholz
When I first started to get really interested in his scouting reports it was something like:
Fastball plus pitch, sits 95
Curveball plus pitch, hammer curve
Changeup plus plus
It was the change that had me thinking he could really special. Now let's fast-forward to end of last season. Here is what I saw from him.
Fastball 4 seam 94 to 95, good location
Fastball 2 seam 89 to 92, nice movement but not typically thrown for strikes
Curveball hammer curve 12 to 6 with excellent break. Not very often for strikes though.
Changeup 78 or 79mph. Huge separation between that and his 4 seam. This is like when Johan Santana had a 14mph separation and was at his most dominant IMO. The break on his change is a little disappointing though. But since the arm action is good and the velocity difference is huge then it's still a plus pitch.
I liked his 4 seam fastball. The location was usually good but he grooved more than I would like. But he did get away with it because of the velocity. Many times he painted corners. But even in games he had his better location he grooved at least a couple. I didn't like his 2 seam as much. It seemed quite useful when it was in a pitchers count but otherwise there were a lot of balls from this pitch. When Varitek was catching he seemed to call more of the 2 seam but Martinez called more 4 seam (from the games I watched). I preferred Martinez approach.
His curve varied a lot. He showed a hammer curve that wasn't hittable. This appeared most games but wasn't often thrown for strikes. One game it was more slurvy. Too many times he seemed to have problems with his grip. Whether it was bouncing the pitch, almost hitting someone, or wild pitches. I also saw this grip problem when he wanted to throw a 2 seam and give extra movement or on his slider. I've seen a few curves where it was much less movement and earlier break. More hittable but I liked this pitch. Hopefully he will use it more. It can be thrown for strikes easier and give him another option for getting a first pitch strike.
He also throws a few sliders. One game I didn't see any. But when he throws he will get one or two plus sliders in the game. I saw a lot that hitters didn't even offer at on a 1-2 count. Currently it's too inconsistent. Once in a while it gets the swing and miss, more often it's just a ball. At least he misses with it outside the zone.
I hear a lot about his makeup and his lack of pitchability and that under pressure he either collapses or doesn't have a game plan. I'm not sure I buy into that. I did see him try to add spin and thus lose control under pressure. But I think it's more a matter of him not having the best feel for pitches. And his landing looks stiff to my eye.
I don't want to sound too negative. He has an excellent fastball when he uses more 4 seamers and mixes in the occasional 2 seamer. His changeup is a definite strikeout weapon. Why doesn't he use it more against lefties? And his curve shows promise.
IMO if he can go to a standard curve and simplify his approach he could be a number 2 pitcher very soon. Then over time try and make the hammer curve and slider bigger parts of his arsenal. Right now he's trying to do too much.
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Well written,
I believe that Buchholz is a future number 1. His slider is a show me pitch right now and could be above average to very good. His arsenal is pretty much complete. It’s more the fact that he really hasn’t been given a chance to show what he’s got due to free agent acquisitions.
The buckling under pressure claims and the lack of make up have been posted several times over the last 3 years, but I believe that he’ll mature. He received rave reviews last offseason for his workout regimen and coachability. If he continues on this trend, then I don’t see him having any issue further developing his talent.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jan 19, 2026 11:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
His slider is plus IMO.
It’s high 80s and dives away from righties.
Real filthy pitch, too.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jan 20, 2026 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The issue with his slider is the lack of control,
He doesn’t use it often which is why I termed it a show me pitch. It has the potential to be a plus pitch, but without consistency, it’s jut not there yet.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jan 20, 2026 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is way better than a "show me" pitch.
by alskor on Jan 20, 2026 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It has the potential to be,
the other reason I call it a show me pitch is because of the lack he throws it. I do agree it’s better than most pitcher’s show me pitches, but it’s the easiest way I can term it without creating a full diatribe for it.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
by JT12340 on Jan 20, 2026 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He threw it 10.5% of the time in 2009
It has a pitch value of +3.3.
It in no way whatsoever resembles a “show me” pitch as that term is popularly used.
by alskor on Jan 20, 2026 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He threw it as much as the curve last year (10.5% to 11.5%).
It also produced better results than any pitch he threw last year.
by rglass44 on Jan 20, 2026 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pure stuff
I honestly feel his repertoire is so much greater than most his age he hasn’t refined it yet. That his ability to throw so many quality pitches has hurt the development of all of them. I’m not a pitcher, or a pitching coach but wonder how many kids can throw all those pitches for strikes.
by gpellet41 on Jan 20, 2026 5:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I disagree about the change.
Watching him pitch at the end of last year, I was astounded by the inability of hitters to make solid contact on Buchholz’ change, primarily because of the heavy fade it has once it nears the plate.
Watch this clip, the first pitch is a heavy sinker, and the second is a changeup:
I think what made Clay’s September so much better than his previous months was the harnessing of that change as an out pitch. I’m not a Sox fan, but I do see a fair amount of their games, living in Boston. I caught every Buchholz start at the end of the year, and was easily more impressed by that change than any of his other pitches. For that stretch of time, it was one of the best pitches in the game.
by PissedMick on Jan 20, 2026 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I know its been said before, but he often decides in the early innings which pitch he has a better feel for that day
Sometimes its the curve, sometimes the change. He then runs with whichever one is working, and typically dominates with it.
Theyre both excellent MLB out pitches.
by alskor on Jan 20, 2026 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
when has he typically dominated with anything?
He might end up being an ace, and he’s got ace stuff, but when has he dominated? He had a pretty good September, albeit pretty lucky with a .236 BABIP. Count me as not a believer.
by LostMess on Jan 20, 2026 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he's thrown a no-hitter, for one
So he looked pretty dominant there. But I dont want to put too much emphasis on that.
He had 10 starts this year where he allowed 2 runs or less. His stuff is ridiculous.
In fact, I can’t honestly believe you don’t see how Buchholz could be/has been dominant for stretches. I assume you’re just being flippant.
by alskor on Jan 20, 2026 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a reasonable question.
Buchholz hasn’t dominated in the majors. Even at his best, he hasn’t been a dominant strikeout pitcher, and the times his strikeout rate has been high, he’s struggled a bit with control.
That said, I think Buchholz has a good a chance to develop into a dominant pitcher as any young starter in the game. His stuff, as we’ve said, is VERY good. His groundball rate (which to me is another type of dominance) has been consistently very high. There’s no question he’s dominated in the minors. Don’t be surprised if 2010 is a coming-out party for Clay Buchholz, ace pitcher.
by PissedMick on Jan 20, 2026 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Sox newly revamped infield
of 3 stud infielders in Beltre, Pedroia, and Youk and a very solid one in Scutaro makes his ground ball tendencies that much more of an advantage too.
I really think Buchholz takes a huge step forward in 2010 as well.
by soxkid on Jan 20, 2026 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ok
Just watching a few games from September. Some notes.
Yeah, that slider looked a lot more tight. During the season they looked like Andrew Miller slingshot sliders. Hella sexy, I think not. But these looked good for the KC game.
The change is obviously a big weapon. Still don’t see the huge tumble, sorry. It’s the arm action and tumble. More importantly though it’s the usage of the 95 mph fastball. The 2 seamer doesn’t help the change as much.
The more I watch his curve the more I think he has to make up his mind. The KC game he was dominant. He threw a couple types of curves and located for strikes. But normally he can’t. The hammer curve is usually a ball. I like his use of a lesser breaking curve.
btw - whomever posted % for slider, curve, etc. Sorry. But those numbers are just wrong. Pitch f/x just uses break to try and approximate the pitch. He has a lot of movement on fastballs, several types of curves, breaking change, two types of sliders. So there is no way those numbers are close to correct.
Another note: Just listening to White it was Clay using far too many breaking balls that cause the Sox to push for way more fastballs. I’m sure in the future this will balance back out.
Anyone psycho like me for watching both video/audio feeds, watching velocity from both, listening to commentary, etc.? You gotta love mlb.com!
bleedjaxblue - what other pitchers you want a writeup on? Kind of busy until weekend then have lots of time on my hands. Let me know who and I’ll see what I can do. Just don’t ask for some mediocre pitcher, I hate watching a lot of tape on them …
by pedrophile on Jan 22, 2026 12:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
haha.....awesome!
great stuff to read! thanks a ton. so valuable.
who else? how about one of Harang, Billingsley, Nolasco, Homer Bailey or David Price?
by bleedjaxblue on Jan 22, 2026 4:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
by pedrophile on 







