National League Central Mock Draft Review

by John Sickels on Jun 7, 2025 3:40 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

Chicago

31) A.J. Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
79) Tanner Bushue, RHP, Illinois HS
109) Tyler Kehrer, LHP, Eastern Illinois

COMMENT: The Cubs director didn't show up, so I ended up making these picks. The Cubs/Notre Dame connection is probably a bit overblown in the press, but Pollock does make sense for the Cubs at the bottom of the first round. After that I went with two home-state pitchers, one high school and one college, to provide a mixture of talent for the system. I'm not sure the real Cubs would be interested in Bushue, but Kehrer does seem the type they would like based on recent college-oriented drafts.

Cincinnati

8) Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
43) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State
57) Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State
88) Kyle Seager, 2B, North Carolina

COMMENT: College-oriented but solid. I love Leake and he would seem to match up well with what the Reds need. Heckathorn's stock has dropped. . .he can be erratic and has some ugly arm action in my opinion, but given his upside is a nice pick at 43. Kipnis and Seager are solid college bats, unlikely to be stars but both likely to get to the Show in some capacity.

Houston

21) Mike Trout, OF, New Jersey HS
69) Colton Cain, LHP-1B, Texas HS
100) Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
111) Jake Cowan, RHP, San Jacinto JC

COMMENT: The Astros need everything, but are noted for some unusual draft decisions. This mock draft is a good mixture and if they did something like this it would not surprise me. Trout has tools galore but could need a bit more time due to cold-weather background. Cain is also high-ceiling but won't be cheap to get away from Texas; perhaps the home state connection would help. Volz was an anticipated first round pick who dropped due to a puzzlingly ineffective spring performance, but given his past record could be a bargain at 100. Cowan is one of the best junior college talents available. All in all, there is risk here but a lot of upside as well.

Milwaukee

26) Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
39) Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia
47) Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina
73) LeVon Washington, OF, Florida HS
74) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson
105) David Hale, RHP, Princeton

COMMENT: I think this is a sound use of multiple picks. Oliver is something of an enigma, but lefties with his arm strength don't grow on trees. Poythress is a strong college bat of the type often favored by the Brewers. Dyson has first round arm strength and could be a bargain at 47. Washington is a toolsy speed demon, but provides some young leavening for the college picks. Both Dwyer and Hale have lively arms but perhaps some signability issues, given the former's unusual freshman status and the latter's educational opportunities at Princeton. However, if you fail to sign one you can plow the cash into signing the other.

Pittsburgh

4) Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
49) Marc Krauss, OF, Ohio
53) Luke Bailey, C, Georgia HS
84) Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville

COMMENT: I love this. I don't know if the Pirates would actually go for Matzek in real life, but perhaps it isn't impossible given the money they showed the willingness to spend last year. Krauss, in my opinion, has a very strong bat and is a cost-effective pick. Bailey has the injury, but getting both him and Matzek into the system would definitely prove to doubters that the new look Pirateas mean business. Dominguez in the third round is very nice; I love his power. Overall, I think this is a fine draft, with the mixture of high school and college types I like. Will the Pirates do something like this in real life?

St. Louis

19) Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
67) Randall Grichuk, OF, Texas HS
98) Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern

COMMENT: This looks very much like something the Cardinals might actually do: they lean towards guys with strong college performance records, but will mix in the occasional toolsy high schooler. Grichuck has some of the best power in the draft. Minor and Shields are solid performers who could move through the system swiftly. Shields, in particular, could be underrated and a bargain in this spot.

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Comments

I really don't think the Pirates are gonna go after one of the more expensive names.

is Leake a possibility? [ i think he is one of the possible bargains with top-10 worthy talent]

or even Jenkins.

by daveh33 on Jun 7, 2025 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, they seem more on Crow than Matzek. A major void in their system is advanced pitching. This draft is a source of that, so I imagine they head in that direction.

Camden Depot - Scouting and Statistical Analysis

by crawdaddy on Jun 7, 2025 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pothyress

Isn’t him in the supplemental an awfully good pick?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Jun 7, 2025 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Project Prospect likes Kipnis a lot

link

"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.

by battlekow on Jun 7, 2025 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks John (Pirates)

I don’t know how likely it is that they’ll go after Matzek, but, with Crow off the board, I had to take him. Everyone else that the Pirates have been linked to (except Borchering) seems to be a significant overdraft. I was really happy that Dominguez fell to me in the third; I expected him off the board in the mid-second.

by jar75 on Jun 7, 2025 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pirates and Pitchforks

As I type this, people in Pittsburgh are busy sharpening their pitchforks. The McLouth trade was not popular and management can not claim to be building the team through prospects and then go out and draft a “signable” player.

by Willie on Jun 8, 2025 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyman's blurb

“There’s a rumor that the Pirates may take Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez with the No. 5 pick a few years after famously passing on catcher Matt Wieters to take Clemson reliever Daniel Moskos.”

Tony Sanchez at 5? If that happens, ouch. I thought the McLouth trade was fine, but Sanchez at 5 would floor me.

by toonsterwu on Jun 8, 2025 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cubs

Thanks for doing this John.

I can see this draft happening (well, I’ve got a tough time seeing Bushue), but I would be disappointed. I’m just not a big fan of adding AJ Pollock to the system. I know the possibility exists, and Pollock was in a XST game for us. That said, I’d rather take a gamble on a guy like Jared Mitchell (and I buy it as a possible Cubs first round pick due to the Maineri connections, the tools, and a college kid). There’s a few other guys I’d prefer over Pollock that I think the Cubs might take (much as I’d love a Mychal Givens, don’t really expect that type of guy) - Tim Wheeler, Alex Wilson (particularly since Wilken drafted him last year and he follows up on guys), Brett Jackson and a couple more. Pollock’s a solid guy, but I’d rather see the Cubs gamble on a bit more upside. I know there are Cubs fans that disagree with that, particularly since it’s the 31st pick. I just think you can find a similar talent to Pollock later in the draft (and a guy like Tony Campana in the Cubs system is loosely similar to Pollock’s skillset … loosely). The Cubs need more upside pieces. Ideally, I’d hope to see them add power - arms and bats.

Assuming Pollock occurred and the draft falls the way it did, the 2nd pick could go a variety of directions (I expect it to be a more positional laden draft, so if the Cubs went pitcher first, unless the BPA was another pitcher, I think they’d look for a bat). Just not sure on a HS arm like Bushue. Raley’s athleticism fits the model of arms that Wilken took last year. I think I could see a Chris Dominguez, although I wonder if my preferences are clouding my judgment there (in a search for power). Maybe a Robbie Shields might figure into the mix? I could see them take a gamble on a HS bat at this point.

by toonsterwu on Jun 8, 2025 1:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jackson

Pass on him given his contact problems. I’m not the biggest Pollock fan around but I’d rather have hi than Jackson. If the Cubs have a chance on Mitchell or Wheeler, I’d prefer that. I know you hedged it by saying loosely, but I think your comparison of Tony Campana to Pollock is off. Pollock has much more power than Campana (and less speed - Tony Campana is the fastest guy in the Cubs system).

By the way, I definitely think the Cubs-ND thing is overblown, especially with Maineri (as you said) at LSU for the past 3 years.

I’d love to see a guy like Robert Stock in round 2 or 3 if possible.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2025 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i did hedge

so i’m not disagreeing with that. That said, you’d be drafting Pollock with the hope of him becoming a top of the order bat, and to that extent, I’m as comfortable with Campana as I am with Pollock, if not moreso in some respects.

My problem with Pollock isn’t that I don’t think his skillset is useful. I mean, based on all the reports, he sounds like a guy who might be something like maybe a .280/.350/.420 guy? something like that. That’s a useful guy, a possible starter.

the problem is, that sounds like his best case scenario and if he fails to hit that, you’ve just drafted a nice depth OF/minor league OF in the first round. There’s obviously a high hit or miss ratio, so missing isn’t the problem. If Pollock’s potential to play 2nd factors in, I think I’d rather have LeMahieu (sp?) later than popping Pollock in the first. It’s just, considering the Cubs system, I’d rather miss on better upside. I think too much emphasis is often placed on minimizing risk in the first round as some sort of critical factor towards minimizing an entire draft’s risk potential - you can draft safer options later to stock the system.

I think we discussed this on another board, but I’m not huge on Jackson either, just prefer him to Pollock. I think, in terms of the college OF’s, I’d go Wheeler, Mitchell, Jackson, Pollock for me. My hunch would be that Mitchell would top our list if he’s there. To be honest, I highly doubt Mitchell even reaches us, and I’m not sure Wheeler does either, leaving probably the Jackson/Pollock debate (I just had a good laugh). Hey, if we draft Pollock, and it sounds like a lot of folks think that possibility is high, I hope I’m dead wrong on him and I’ll be the first to be willing to eat crow on that. Because if I’m eating crow, that means the Cubs have themselves a solid player.

I will say that, the more I thought about it, CF is definitely a need within the system that I haven’t pondered over as much. Been so focused on adding power bats and arms, lefty arms, middle infield that the system hole in CF hadn’t crossed my mind as much.

by toonsterwu on Jun 8, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Personally, if it comes down to Pollock vs Jackson, I hope the Cubs go a different direction. Hopefully a prep OF is still available if Mitchell and Wheeler were already popped.

Jackson’s contact issues with an aluminum bat is a MAJOR red flag. And yeah, I think we talked about this over at The Cub Reporter…I’m extremely anti-Jackson.

by Raisin on Jun 8, 2025 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All in all

I kind of like my draft (Brewers) the best. Each team had a pretty good 1st round pick I felt (in the NLC). I love the Matzek pick by the Pirates, but Ive heard that the Bucs are saving money in the draft so that they can sign this mega SS prospect in Latin America this summer. Pollock is a sure fire pick for the Cubs if he is still there with the Chicago/Notre Dame thing. Leake is a good value pick for the Reds, although I could see them taking Green as well. Trout was a guy I was looking at for the Brewers. And I was very glad to see the Cards take Minor. Brewer fans wanted him for that #26 pick, but I am not high on him at all, so it was nice to see him gone. Apart from Grichuk, there was not one player taken in the NLC that was on my list (minus the first rounders mentioned above).

by backtocali on Jun 8, 2025 10:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brewers Draft

I think we’re again going to load up on pitching, especially college pitching as it’s seen as being safer. But I do have to say I love the Washington pick. The Brewers have an absolute abundance of power in the majors, and the next Rogers Hornsby at the keystone in the minors. But the fastest player on their major league roster is a converted first baseman! Thus, I would say this would be quite the ideal haul given the current system’s makeup.

by ILuvDaBush on Jun 8, 2025 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs