2009 Amateur Draft Mock #7 Rounds 1-3
I've posted my seventh mock draft over at MLB Bonus Baby, this time putting all three rounds into a single writeup, though individual writeups have been omitted. Comments over at the blog are appreciated, especially if you have a question or comment on specific picks. First round mock pasted after the jump.

1. Washington – Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
2. Seattle – Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, North Carolina
3. San Diego – Donavan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)
4. Pittsburgh – Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats
5. Baltimore – Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
6. San Francisco – Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
7. Atlanta – Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
8. Cincinnati – Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints
9. Detroit – Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO)
10. Washington – Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ)
11. Colorado – Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State
12. Kansas City – Grant Green, SS, USC
13. Oakland – Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
14. Texas – Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)
15. Cleveland – Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
16. Arizona – Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb
17. Arizona – Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL)
18. Florida – Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)
19. St. Louis – Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
20. Toronto – Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
21. Houston – Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA)
22. Minnesota – Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA)
23. Chicago (AL) – Everett Williams, OF, McCallum HS (TX)
24. Los Angeles (AL) – Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA)
25. Los Angeles (AL) – Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA)
26. Milwaukee – Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
27. Seattle – AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
28. Boston – Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)
29. New York (AL) – Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
30. Tampa Bay – Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)
31. Chicago (NL) – Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
32. Colorado – Garrett Gould, RHP, Maize HS (KS)
What do you think? Make sure to check out all three rounds, including 111 mock draft picks!
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I think each pick is defensible
among the players I’m familiar with. Hate to see my Cardinals pass on Barrett in the 2nd, though, he’s a favorite of mine.
I think the (maybe) surprise of this draft will be Poythress going in the top 10-15 picks. His stellar first half may look like a mirage right now, but he’s still at the top of the class of possible future #4 hitters for teams that don’t want to wait for a high schooler to progress. He makes me think of Frank Thomas, not that that’s what I expect from him.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
by mateodh on
Jun 1, 2025 11:40 PM EDT
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Miller
Andy, I’m pleasantly surprised that you and so many others still think he’ll last to #14. I now have my doubts. Why are you so convinced that he’ll fall that far?
I propose a 5-year moratorium on trading any young Ranger pitchers who throw over 90 mph.
by Ajax68 on
Jun 2, 2025 12:21 AM EDT
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I'm not convinced at all.
It’s just the best educated guess at this point. I see teams lining up to favor other players over him given the options they might have on the table. In general, they love his arm, but he’s easily the least polished of the top prep arms, putting him behind Matzek, Turner, and Wheeler. Probably Purke, too, but he has the signability issues going against him. For that reason, I’ll say that I think the chances of him falling that far are 50/50.
by Andy Seiler on
Jun 2, 2025 12:24 AM EDT
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Rangers' sandwich and 2nd-round picks
I see you have them taking Fuentes and Heathcott respectively. I know nothing about Heathcott, but what I’ve heard about Fuentes is intriguing. I know nothing about the projected 3rd-rounder, James Jones, either.
I propose a 5-year moratorium on trading any young Ranger pitchers who throw over 90 mph.
by Ajax68 on
Jun 2, 2025 12:25 AM EDT
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Heathcott
After having caught up on my reading about him, I feel stupid for not knowing much about him.
I propose a 5-year moratorium on trading any young Ranger pitchers who throw over 90 mph.
by Ajax68 on
Jun 2, 2025 12:31 AM EDT
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Heathcott is my favorite guy who may not go in the 1st
really hope the rangers grab him
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on
Jun 6, 2025 7:20 PM EDT
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Hope the A's don't pass on the local product (Mendonca) in the 3rd round.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Jun 2, 2025 1:10 AM EDT
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I seriously doubt...
that Green will get past the Tigers at 9 if he’s even available then.
by Havok1517 on
Jun 2, 2025 1:24 AM EDT
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The Tigers will take Turner over Green
Keith Law said, in a recent ESPN chat, that there a couple of picks that industry sources consider locks - other than Strasburg one and Ackley two. Those are: Wheeler at seven, Turner at number nine and Shelby Miller fourteen.
by byronlhsdrmr on
Jun 2, 2025 2:04 AM EDT
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The Nats have came out and said
That they are taking another pitcher with pick #10 overall though.
So I think Mike Trout will be available for the Rockies….
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on
Jun 2, 2025 2:47 AM EDT
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Thanks for posting such an extensive mock.
You’ve really done your homework.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 2, 2025 11:12 AM EDT
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Well done, sir.
I think the Jays might have trouble passing on Paxton if he’s available at #37. The Jays have a fair number of outfield prospects in Mitchell’s age bracket (Sierra, Tolisano, Chavez, Thames, Eiland, Wilson), though Mitchell’s athleticism could take him to the front of the pack.
by ayjackson on
Jun 2, 2025 12:47 PM EDT
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...
Paxton is going to be a tough signing if he falls out of the 1st round IMO. Boras isn’t going to settle for slot, and you dont get compensation if you fail to sign a Supp. 1st round pick which gives all the power to Boras. I’m not sure I’d even go overslot for Paxton at that point.
by metafour on
Jun 2, 2025 1:42 PM EDT
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good point about the Supp pick being lost if not signed. While I think Ricciardi will take on a Boras client at some point in the near future, the supplemental round doesn’t look like a good spot.
by ayjackson on
Jun 2, 2025 2:42 PM EDT
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Thoughts on James Marks at Louisville?
I’m really impressed by his numbers in all three years at UL, and he is said to have command of four pitches. Any reasoning why he’s not considered to go higher than mid second round?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 2, 2025 2:03 PM EDT
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Marks
Well, he’s just a crafty lefty, and that’s the best way to explain it. Whereas Mike Leake has solid movement on his fastball, Marks’ fastball is pretty much average, and all of his pitches are pretty much average, as well. He does have solid command, but it’s not plus-plus. All those things added together make him a first day pick, but not a first rounder. He’s probably got a ceiling as a #4 starter.
by Andy Seiler on
Jun 2, 2025 9:28 PM EDT
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Thanks!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 3, 2025 11:58 AM EDT
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Lord No!
If things turn out the way you predict, I will be extremely ticked off that the Brewers would pass on Purke and (again) take a player about 10 spots too early.
It will be Fielder (safe) over Kazmir (HS Lefty with tons of upside) all over again.
by backtocali on
Jun 2, 2025 3:06 PM EDT
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Eh, I'd be sad about not taking Purke too, but not surprised
The Brewers never went over slot under Zduriencik, and I don’t see why that would change under Seid.
"I didn't realize his velocity was that high," said Macha, noting that radar readings aren't flashed during exhibition games.
by battlekow on
Jun 2, 2025 7:45 PM EDT
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Yeah
Even though they are in a money making time for the franchise, the smart move is to sign a guy for slot if you can, and hopefully they turn out to be worth the risk of missing out on opportunity cost of capital.
It just sucks to see a guy like Purke fall (if he in fact does) and not have the Brewers take him if only for signability reasons.
by backtocali on
Jun 2, 2025 11:13 PM EDT
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Can SD afford to sign Tate?
If they can’t, how far does he fall in your draft?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jun 2, 2025 4:05 PM EDT
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Yes...
they’ve said publicly that they have up to $6m budgetted for the pick…
by pffriberg on
Jun 2, 2025 5:20 PM EDT
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Thanks, hadn't read that
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jun 2, 2025 9:08 PM EDT
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Yanks
If the BoSox wind up taking Purke with the pick right before them, I will be just disappointed. Not as disappointed as when the Tigers took Porcello, but still pretty disappointed.
by MartyMcFly on
Jun 2, 2025 11:59 PM EDT
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O's
Thank goodness the O’s seem to have little interest in Gibson.
by RisingO's on
Jun 3, 2025 8:45 AM EDT
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If hes there the O's will take him
He is going to be a solid #2 starting pitcher. I have it on good authority that if Tate is gone, and Gibson is available, Gibson will be the O’s guy.
by backtocali on
Jun 3, 2025 9:55 AM EDT
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interesting
Tate is the guy I keep thinking will fall due to asking price.
so if he is there at #5, he will for sure be an O?
by daveh33 on
Jun 3, 2025 12:35 PM EDT
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Its not a sure thing
But the O’s have put a ton of time into Gibson.
by backtocali on
Jun 3, 2025 1:22 PM EDT
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if he is hurt... i don't think he is a top 5 pick.
and i was asking about tate anyway
by daveh33 on
Jun 3, 2025 2:18 PM EDT
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look down a couple posts.
velocity that is way down… is not a good sign.
by daveh33 on
Jun 3, 2025 3:07 PM EDT
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Saw him many times this season
Wouldnt worry too much about it.
He probably holds out a bit, signs in Mid July/early August and gets put on the shelf until Winter ball.
by backtocali on
Jun 3, 2025 5:09 PM EDT
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Why don't you like him?
Mechanics flaw?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 3, 2025 11:58 AM EDT
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His velo was down in his last start.
Like way down. There’s a chance he’s hurt. He’s been abused at Mizzou.
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First Inning - Amateur Draft Contributor
by Andy Seiler on
Jun 3, 2025 1:41 PM EDT
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psh. Abused how?
Abused my rear end. This is his first year over 100 IP at Mizzou and it is barely over that. He is a weekend starter for a major program, he is going to pitch 100 innings. How has he been abused? Missouri hasn’t ever gone deep enough in the post season for crazy postseason usage to be an issue. I’m sick of every one freaking out every time a kid throws a full season’s worth of innings as a college starter.
by nms on
Jun 6, 2025 3:39 AM EDT
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He's 21.
Starting with a February 20 start, here’s his pitch counts and innings:
92/6 innings
109/7
114/8
124/9
117/9
45/2 (7 runs on 7 hits)
35/1 (3 runs on 4 hits)
118/9
116/9
132/9
114/6.2
124/8
126/8
15/1 (getting work in after layoff)
98/6
102/8 (dead arm game vs. Monmouth)
Would you want the stud 21 year old prospect in your system to throw that many pitches?
Take out the 15 pitch outing for work. That’s 104.4 pitches per start, including the bad 2 start stretch. 114.3 if you take those out. 14.82 pitches per inning if you take out the 15 pitch outing. Let’s stretch all those numbers out to a 33 start season for reference, taking out the 1 inning outing and looking at the other 15 starts:
232.467 innings pitched
3445.2 pitches thrown
That would have put him 9th in baseball for total pitches thrown on the 2008 leaderboard. At 21 years old.
Now, I know I’m going to get the argument that he only starts once a week. Ok, let’s say then that he pitched for 3 months, which is half a season in MLB. So we’ll bring down the multiplier a little, to 2 instead of 2.2 Here’s the totals:
211.1 innings pitched
3132 pitched thrown
Now we’re putting him in 40th for pitches thrown, 4 pitches behind Derek Lowe. At the age of 21. As one of the top draft prospects in all of baseball. And it obviously has had an effect on his arm.
Get my point?
MLB Bonus Baby - A Draft Blog - Author
First Inning - Amateur Draft Contributor
by Andy Seiler on
Jun 6, 2025 5:27 AM EDT
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Matt Purke
I think I just about creamed myself when I saw Purke going to the Red Sox.
I hope to God he/Miller/Turner drops.
BTW, Gibson is the most overrated player in the draft…average fastball and awful tall-and-fall mechanics. He’ll probably be nothing more than a #4 in the majors.
by Frederick0220 on
Jun 4, 2025 9:54 PM EDT
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