Rangers Farm Rated #1 by BA
The Rangers have been rated #1 by BA, the Marlins #2, and the A's #3:
Chris (Newport beach, CA): Jim, great chat as always! I was wondering when you were doing the minor league top 10’s, which orginization did you have the most trouble with in terms of their top three prospects? Marlins, Braves, other??
SportsNation John Manuel: (2:25 PM ET ) Neat question that I’ll answer even though I’m not Jim. The Braves was very tough — we went back and forth between Jason Heyward and Tommy Hanson; Hanson’s AFL performance and scouting reports were so loud and outsized, and he’s so much closer to the majors than Heyward, that we switched at the last minute. The Rangers top list and the Marlins are also interchangeable, and to me, you could argue Mike Stanton over Cam Maybin easily for the Marlins No. 1, K rate be damned! Those kinds of things tend to happen to strong organizations, and Texas and Florida rank 1-2 in our Org Rankings in the Prospect Handbook, which is at the printers now.
Confirmed by Richard Durrett of the DMN:
I just called Baseball America and officials there confirmed the Rangers have the No. 1 farm system. John Manuel mentioned it on an ESPN.com chat and BA officials said it is indeed true.
Florida, by the way, is No. 2.
I talked to John Manuel, editor-in-chief of Baseball America, and he said that the Rangers beat out Florida and Oakland because of balance within the system.
"They have pitching and hitting prospects with some close to the major-league level and some at the lower levels with high upside," Manuel said. "Other teams had great pitching or great hitting, but the Rangers had the best of both."
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Florida #2
Is the bigger surprise. Anybody going to apologize to Dewey Finn?
by laxtonto on
Jan 14, 2026 4:05 PM EST
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is that really a huge surprise?
I mean, John basically has them 2nd as well. The depth of that system stands out. I mean, is it mildly surprising? Perhaps, I was thinking they were 4th or 5th initially, but I don’t follow the Marlins all that closely, and after seeing things, yeah, Marlins at 2nd make sense.
by toonsterwu on
Jan 14, 2026 4:44 PM EST
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Yeah to most of the minor league ball communnity it is..
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/30/705219/h2h-rangers-vs-athletics
and
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/8/684912/a-s-ranger-s-ba-top-10
by laxtonto on
Jan 14, 2026 4:53 PM EST
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I’m very surprised but it seems like BA, they go overboard on young, toolsy players all the time so you expect that. John however is generally much more conservative in his grading which is why I was so surprised. I think rating Florida as high as BA is as a system and rating the Florida players as high as John has is definitely a ballsy move. Either they pan out and they look good for being aggressive with ALL of their rankings of those players and the system in general or the tools go to waste and it looks absolutely horrible. We will see what happens.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 14, 2026 5:35 PM EST
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BA
goes off of discussions with tons of scouts in and out of the organization. They talk to people in the player development department, managers etc.
They are quite aware of stats, but with most minor leaguers stats are just not as important as scouting reports, especially below AA.
Most people don’t realize that the BA writers don’t really scout themselves, they are reporters who investigate players by talking to a tremendous amount of contacts.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on
Jan 14, 2026 7:35 PM EST
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I think there are huge holes in this statement:
“They are quite aware of stats, but with most minor leaguers stats are just not as important as scouting reports, especially below AA.”
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:43 AM EST
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+1
To the obvious sarcasm. Can we please stop bickering over who has the best farm system now?
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Jan 14, 2026 9:15 PM EST
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lol
If all goes well, they’re competitive with the Angels in their division (and the A’s too perhaps if the A’s get exceptionally lucky).
I’m much more impressed with the position players than the pitchers. Their top 3 is Holland/Feliz/Main, a high-upside trio but also one with rather high bust potential even among young pitchers. The biggest question to me is: can the Rangers turn what may be a surplus of interesting young position players into pitching depth through trades?
by mrkupe on
Jan 14, 2026 4:28 PM EST
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I think the Rangers have to get a lot luckier than the A's to compete
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:44 AM EST
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especially this year
the A’s have a revamped offense with Holliday and Giambi to anchor the middle of the lineup.
Wait 'til the year after next
by NothinG on
Jan 15, 2026 11:47 AM EST
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Oh, I definitely meant in 2009
I just think more of the A’s prospects are ready now (in addition to what they’ve brought on board) than the Rangers’ prospects.
by thejd44 on
Jan 16, 2026 4:32 AM EST
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Suck it Oakland.
"I have kids, so when I get on the mound I see someone else trying to steal my job and make my life hell. So I try to do the same thing to them." -- Eric Gagne
by Agreen07 on
Jan 14, 2026 4:30 PM EST
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Stay Classy Texas.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 14, 2026 4:39 PM EST
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Now if only Texas...
can learn to develop pitchers. Pitching in that park will be demoralizing to those young studs. Nobody is disputing their talent, but lets wait on crowning Texas a dynasty in the west. Great system though!
by snrubnivek on
Jan 14, 2026 5:42 PM EST
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Hey!
As a Ranger fan I don’t think that’s a very fair remark - in the past few years we have developed Chris Young, Armando Galaraga, John Danks, Edinson Volquez, etc.
Now if you had said if only Texas can develop AND NOT MORONICALLY TRADE AWAY some pitchers I would have been on the same page with you no doubt.
;)
by Curveball 2000 on
Jan 14, 2026 6:31 PM EST
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at least you got
Hamilton!
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on
Jan 14, 2026 7:36 PM EST
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Well..
Once they pitch in Texas their value goes down. Makes sense to trade them while their value is high. Their offense has to be one of the tops in the league just to negate the pitching. As an A’s fan, I’m all for having a tough division. I hope both teams prospects pan out. It’s going to make for some great games in the years to come!
by snrubnivek on
Jan 15, 2026 12:57 AM EST
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Eh, Volquez isn't that good
That trade will end up being a huge, huge win for Texas.
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:44 AM EST
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-1
Volquez is that good! First year were he pitched almost 200 INN. Walks are high, but huge K-rate and improved GB% makes him a great pickup. Also 3.21 ERA in CIN not too shabby. I think Hamilton is more valuable for sure, but to discount Volquez I think is wrong.
by Chalupa Cabrera on
Jan 15, 2026 4:46 PM EST
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Volquez is that good
but Dusty Baker is going to ruin him very quickly.
by alskor on
Jan 15, 2026 5:42 PM EST
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Not very surprising, considering that the A's have gotten much of their young-player value
out of parts of their farm system which BA’s approach regards as essentially worthless. It’s par for the course, I guess.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 14, 2026 5:32 PM EST
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I'm not following. Can you explain this?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 2:45 AM EST
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It's basically the same thing as grover said below
They routinely rate rookie-ball one-hit-wonders above guys with extremely solid track records of success. The latter category produces more value, though— even if it’s unsexy value. Kurt Suzuki’s value isn’t sexy, but it’s potent. He was better than Ryan Howard last season— a LOT better, actually.
I expect a lot more of the same out of guys like Cunningham, Doolittle, and Simmons, which will be ignored by BA and other parlor-room analysts.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 15, 2026 4:12 AM EST
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Or put another way
They often seem to value 18-year-olds who can run and jump and do a 360 backflip into the splits while juggling 6 bowling pins over guys who have proven they can kindasorta actually play baseball.
I wonder how many guys they’ve overrated because they talked to scouts who liked their baseball face.
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:46 AM EST
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BA had Suzuki #3 in 2007, John #5 (B-) and Goldstein #3 (Good)
BA A’s Top 10 2007
I see a lot more agreement by the three than is being described here. Cunningham, Doolittle and Simmons were all in BA’s Top 10.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 11:14 AM EST
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Thats relative to other A's prospects tho, which misses PT's point
Paul’s point is that BA routinely overvalues players who have toolsheds the size of texas but when looking for skills all you hear is crickets and undervalues the opposite players that have a significantly higher probability of being average to above average MLB players and a low probability of being a bust or a superstar.
The A’s seem to focus on the latter so for Suzuki to be compared to other such players does not illustrate the bias.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on
Jan 15, 2026 1:37 PM EST
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Suzuki was better than Howard?
I am unsure of how you came to this conclusion. Howard had an OPS+ of 124 last season. Suzuki had an OPS+ of 97. I am not a Ryan Howard fan but he certainly was better then Suzuki last season.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 15, 2026 12:10 PM EST
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Or is this another one of your "Mark Ellis is better than Ichiro" type statements?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 15, 2026 12:11 PM EST
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Not a stretch at all
Last year according to fan graphs Howard was worth 3.4 wins. Suzuki only with his bat (since fangraphs doesn’t evaluate catcher defense) was worth 3.1 wins. To belive Suzuki was better than Howard last year then all you have to believe is that Suzuki was a +5 run defender, which is really not that much of a stretch considering his good defensive reputation.
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on
Jan 15, 2026 1:40 PM EST
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Wait
so, in your opinion, “the best” player is the one with the highest OPS+, regardless of defense or position…?
I dont think Suzuki was, in fact, better than Howard, but it was probably pretty close. Good defense and league average offense from a catcher is more valuable than a crappy fielding, overrated because of power first baseman.
by alskor on
Jan 15, 2026 1:56 PM EST
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That isn't my opinion....
However, that is the opinion that PT has used in the past when discussing players. I get annoyed how people selectively use one stat to support the argument that a player is “better” and then use a different stat that supports their argument that a player is “better”. Suzuki was not better then Howard last year. Statistics can be misused to prove anything and I believe that is happening here. The fact that Howard was worth more wins and had a MUCH higher OPS+ leaves me with little doubt that he was “better” then Suzuki this year.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 15, 2026 2:16 PM EST
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Explain how Howard was worth more wins then
Because others have shown that he wasn’t, or at least arguably wasn’t when you take into account Suzuki’s defense.
by thejd44 on
Jan 16, 2026 4:35 AM EST
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I'm going to link to this post every time I need to demonstrate that you have no idea how to analyze baseball players
As a hitter, Howard outhit Suzuki by, depending on your metric, somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 runs.
The difference in value between an average fielding 1B and an average fielding catcher is already about 20 runs, and those players are nowhere near average. Howard is a crappy 1B who cost his team between 5 and 10 additional runs; Suzuki is an excellent catcher who saved his team 5-10 additional runs. Upshot— Suzuki was 5-15 runs better, or .5-1.5 wins better, than Ryan Howard last season.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 15, 2026 3:55 PM EST
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And Howard
is going to get approximately $50 billion in arbitration.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 4:13 PM EST
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Arbiters really dig OPS+!
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 3:58 AM EST
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Actually, they just dig HRs
Hell, even Jack Cust got almost $3 million this year.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 16, 2026 2:15 PM EST
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What metric?
VORP
Howard: 36
Suzuki: 16.2
UZR
Howard: 0.8
Suzuki: ?
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:55 PM EST
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Over replacement is a poor measure of who is "better"
The average replacement level catcher is a lot worse than the average replacement level 1B. Doesn’t mean that a catcher who’s barely over replacement level is better than a replacement level 1B. He has more worth to the team, but that’s not the same as better.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Jan 15, 2026 8:15 PM EST
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VORP is positionally adjusted supposedly
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 3:59 AM EST
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Replacement level
The average replacement level catcher is a lot worse than the average replacement level 1B.
Replacement level batting line is much lower for a catcher than a 1b, if that is what you mean. He is a worse hitter, not a worse player.
He has more worth to the team, but that’s not the same as better.
I don’t exactly understand your parsing of “more worth” and “better.”
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 9:17 AM EST
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VORP is a bad metric... I have no idea what it's based on, and it never lines up with anything else
Fangraphs puts Suzuki at 23 runs below Howard. BRAA at BPro, the stat on which Equivalent Average is based, has the difference at 26, I think.
UZR seems to like Howard’s defense but a lot of other metrics loathe it. The Fan’s Scouting Report grades him at something like an 18 out of 100. CHONE’s fielding projections have him at -9 runs.
Suzuki ranked near the top of BtBS’s grading of catcher defense this season. He ranks very high on blocking pitches, scores well on the Fan Report, and throws out a high percentage of runners. CHONE projects him at +7 runs.
I’m comfortable with the ranges I’ve given as to their respective defense.
Incidentally, I actually understated my case. Tango’s positional weights suggest that the difference between an average 1B and an average C is 25 runs, not 20. Given that, Suzuki is 1-2 full wins better.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 16, 2026 2:30 PM EST
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VORP is base on MLV
And it doesn’t line with other metrics because they (BRAA for instance) are based on the average player, not the replacement player.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 4:02 PM EST
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The difference is only relevant for players who played partial seasons
For everyone else, you can just add 20-odd runs to their BRAA and get BRAR. It doesn’t change the difference between the two players much— Howard gets a bit of extra credit for playing more games, but Suzuki had a huge number of PAs for a catcher last year and wasn’t that far behind Howard.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 16, 2026 6:55 PM EST
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Rationalization
None of the top prospects in the Marlins’ system are in rookie ball, save Skipworth. Your explanation does not fit the details.
And BA hardly considered Kurt Suzuki worthless. He was a top 100 prospect.
If anything, overrating 8 year olds only helps the A’s, since BA put Inoa at #3 on their OAK list, and since he will probably be in the middle of the top 100.
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:33 PM EST
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To be fair
The “be average at everything with no studs” approach is a hard way to build a baseball team. Case in point: The Toronto Blue Jays of the past few years. You do need the high impact players (like the toolshed kids have a higher chance of developing into) to build a championship caliber roster.
by Ophidian on
Jan 15, 2026 7:40 PM EST
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And if you do manage a great year like the Jays had last year, Pythag wise, then you're
left with a suddenly declining core. A couple of injuries and you’re toast.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:01 AM EST
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Im sorry PT.
I like you as a poster, and generally agree with what you say, but saying that Kurt Suzuki was a lot better than Ryan Howard last season is incredibly fucking stupid.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Jan 15, 2026 11:16 PM EST
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Agreed
I am not saying that Suzuki is not a good player; he is. However, Howard had the higher win share (3.4 to 3.1), dwarfed Kurt in OPS+, and also had the higher VORP. Any baseball expert would concur that Howard is the ‘better’ player then Suzuki. I like Kurt but lets not be stupid PT.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 16, 2026 12:46 AM EST
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The 3.4 vs 3.1 doesn't include catcher defense.
BP had Suzuki rated +6 in 2008. CHONE has him +7.
BP fielding metrics are not play-by-play derived, but then which catcher fielding metrics are?
Suzuki only has to be +4 defensively to be better than Howard.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:04 AM EST
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3.4 v. 3.1
Win Shares include defense.
And BP’s fielding metrics are retarded.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 9:19 AM EST
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Check again. Fangraphs Catcher Fielding Metrics do not include defense.
If you can come up with better catcher fielding metrics than BP’s feel free to use them and convert them to runs above average.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 11:34 AM EST
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Fangraphs
That’s great for fangraphs, but what does that have to do with WinShares? I don’t think Fangraphs even calculates those.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 1:27 PM EST
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Well
that’s just because WinShares arent all that good.
by alskor on
Jan 16, 2026 2:22 PM EST
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That's some incredibly fantastic evidence you've brought up to prove your point
Suzuki is, at worst, one of the 7 best catchers in baseball. Depending on where his defense actually falls on the catcher defense spectrum, he could be top 5.
That’s really, really valuable.
by thejd44 on
Jan 16, 2026 4:37 AM EST
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Top 7
7 better catchers:
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann
Russell Martin
Geovanny Soto
Ryan Doumit
Chris Iannetta
Kelly Shoppach
Mike Napoli
Oops, that’s 8.
Suzuki is a below average hitter whose whole value comes from being a full time catcher. Now that has value, definitely, but he’s not a top 5 anything.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 9:40 AM EST
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Poor A's fans
I guess they can stop all the analysis on how they’re better than Texas and deserve to be #1.
Heck, professionals out there have them ranked #3.
by Coolbean04 on
Jan 14, 2026 6:21 PM EST
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or do they?
hehe
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
by jbluestone on
Jan 14, 2026 7:37 PM EST
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Texas has higher celing guys..
Oakland as more good bets. In 3 years the A’s will have the better “Team”. And thats what matters.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 14, 2026 8:54 PM EST
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lol.
"No... JD has been exposed as a kid who trades his remote-controlled helicopters for paper airplanes, then fails to consider the feelings of the paper airplane when he refolded it into a hat." -Telegraph.
by Kinslerhomer on
Jan 14, 2026 9:08 PM EST
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You are not allowed to LoL.
Your team has 8 losing seasons in 9 years.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 14, 2026 11:20 PM EST
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lol.
More fair.
ha.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Jan 14, 2026 11:23 PM EST
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So let me get this straight
You refer that the A’s will have a better “team” in the future because of the “good bets” but you defend your statement by saying the Rangers had 8 losing seasons in 9 years.
Yep, that makes sense.
by Coolbean04 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:22 AM EST
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What doesnt make sense?
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 15, 2026 2:44 AM EST
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I don't think that was the justification for the statement
It seemed that Kinsler responded with incredulity, and the only logical response was “Screw you, your team sucks.” If KinslerHR had responded with something more logical then I could definitely see Syphon being wrong here.
by JayWise on
Jan 15, 2026 10:22 AM EST
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Incredulity? No,
it sure could happen but for him to say that they will hands down have the better “Team” in three years is stupid (unless he can show me his crystal ball) and then to try and back that up by saying that because we’ve sucked eight of the last nine years (which we have), so there is abviously no way we can get better is pretty dumb.
"No... JD has been exposed as a kid who trades his remote-controlled helicopters for paper airplanes, then fails to consider the feelings of the paper airplane when he refolded it into a hat." -Telegraph.
by Kinslerhomer on
Jan 15, 2026 11:09 AM EST
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But didn't you?
Suck 8 of the last 9 years, i mean. Past performance as indicative of future results. (just giving you a hard time, here).
by JayWise on
Jan 15, 2026 11:10 AM EST
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yeah, lol.
"No... JD has been exposed as a kid who trades his remote-controlled helicopters for paper airplanes, then fails to consider the feelings of the paper airplane when he refolded it into a hat." -Telegraph.
by Kinslerhomer on
Jan 15, 2026 11:14 AM EST
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Huh?
What does that have to do with the strength of their farm system. I’d put the A’s third behind the Rangers and Marlins and that is despite the fact that I like the A’s more than I like both those teams. Their are alot of A’s fans on here who take it personally when someone says they have the 2nd or 3rd best farm system. I dont get it.
by wolviex18 on
Jan 15, 2026 6:46 AM EST
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How long after that...
Do the A’s trade away these good bets from this better “team” because they dont want to pay them?
by snatch attack on
Jan 15, 2026 12:10 AM EST
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New Stadium.. New Owners..
Time are a changing.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 15, 2026 12:21 AM EST
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Just because they're getting a new stadium
and new owners doesn’t mean they can all the sudden afford to keep the good players they produce. Unless the new owner is Mark Cuban or something, I don’t think a horrific economic downturn, perrenial piss poor attendance even when they’re good, and the debt they’d aquire to pay off the new stadium if they get one exactly spells “higher payroll.”
by boonitez on
Jan 15, 2026 12:45 AM EST
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If the past is any indicator...
they don’t need the stadium or an increased payroll to smoke Texas. Historically there is no comparing the 2 franchises!
by snrubnivek on
Jan 15, 2026 1:06 AM EST
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a little beside the point
I was saying the A’s trade all of their expensive players, which is true. I didn’t say anything about them being worse than Texas.
by boonitez on
Jan 15, 2026 1:26 AM EST
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At least Oak produces players worth
signing… I mean you guy lets Teix go. Hows that any different?
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 15, 2026 2:42 AM EST
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The difference being...
The Rangers actually tried to re-sign Tex. They only traded him after he turned down a contract extension.
by snatch attack on
Jan 15, 2026 10:09 AM EST
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Giambi, Chavez
The A’s tried very hard to re-sign Giambi and succeeded in re-signing Chavez (oops).
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 15, 2026 10:14 AM EST
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They tried to extend his contract
and he didn’t want to, so they were faced with the option of letting him go and picking up draft picks or trading him for even more value. They really couldn’t afford to keep him; the guy landed 180 million dollars over 8 years. That kind of money would put many team’s payrolls in a headlock. That’s not quite the same as trading Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Dan Haren, etc. because you’d rather not have to shell out some money to keep them and you’d rather try and build a new team to save money.
by boonitez on
Jan 15, 2026 9:46 PM EST
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The pitcher trades you reference were not salary dumps. They were
meant to restock the farm system for a period of years. It didn’t really work with Hudson though.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:05 AM EST
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You have no idea what you're talking about
Dan Haren had 3 years with a ridiculously club-friendly contract when the A’s traded him. Mulder had 2 fairly team-friendly years left. Hudson could easily have been re-signed within the team budget after 2005 had he been amenable to it, which he wasn’t. He preferred to return closer to home.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 16, 2026 2:38 PM EST
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I'm surprised Florida is #2, but I probably shouldn't be
BA has always favored teams with uber-ceiling talents that are 3 years away over teams with solid to good prospects that are much closer to the Show. Oh well. If I hadn’t thought that BA was excessive in their fawning of 17 year olds in Rookie ball I never would have bought Sickels’ book!
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jan 14, 2026 10:54 PM EST
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Doesn't everyone favor teams with uber-ceiling talents over teams with solid to good prospects?
I’ve seen some pretty high ceiling, middling performance guys on John’s list and Goldstein’s. I didn’t see anyone rate the A’s system over either the Marlins or the Ranger systems so far.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 2:52 AM EST
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You're leaving out the bit about the timelines
BA has always had a bias towards prospects with the potential for the greatest impact, even if the prospect in question is half a decade away from playing in the Show. A lot of guys with outstanding tools turn into busts but that never seems to slow down BA’s love for them. Sickels plays it more cautious (see the Giants’ Angel Villalona) and I appreciate that. I’m even more cautious than Sickels, probably to my detriment.
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on
Jan 15, 2026 10:33 AM EST
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I think I have that bias also. Basically I think you need 14 WAA to win 95 games and I want the top
prospects to be ones who are most likely to get those. A guy who’s close to the majors but isn’t likely to give a lot of WAA isn’t attractive to me.
I understand there have been cases where a team with stars failed to win as much as they should have for want of average players — 1980’s Expos, 1990’s Mariners — but for the most part the teams that don’t win big, don’t win because they don’t have stars.
I wouldn’t trade Michel Inoa for someone like Aaron Cunningham because players that can be the best player on a championship team are so rare that if you’re lucky enough to find one, you grab on with both hands and don’t let go. If Aaron Cunningham’s your best player you’re not going to win much. The fact that he’s 2 months from the majors is less important to me than the fact that Inoa has the potential to be the best player on a future A’s champion.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 11:21 AM EST
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It's not being "close to the majors" that's valuable
Kenshin Kawakami, Yadel Marti, and Joel Galarraga are all prospects who are close to the majors.
The problem with that statement is that none of them has played a game of affiliated ball. They are still very high risk (granted, not as high risk as Inoa, who hasn’t passed through the injury nexus and whose top prospect status still relies to an extent on physical projection) because they don’t have an established track record.
What makes Cunningham valuable is that he has a ton of at-bats in affiliated, regulated leagues where teams have a very good idea what the players are capable of. He’s not likely to suddenly forget how to hit.
I mean, really— would you sell off Aaron Cunningham for $4.25 million? That’s what Inoa got…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 15, 2026 4:02 PM EST
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I wouldn't sell him for that, because I could get a lot more if I sold him. But I wouldn't
routinely trade all high ceiling prospects for major league ready average players either.
To clarify, I’m not that high on guys with 5 tools and no plate discipline. I believe that having bad plate discipline limits your upside. I am high on guys with 5 tools a good eye and far away from the majors….or pitchers who have the potential to be Felix Hernandez.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:09 AM EST
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Of course you don't "routinely" do that, but if you're a contender with a hole on your roster,
doing so makes a ton of sense.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 16, 2026 2:40 PM EST
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To the A's Haters: Is it Billy Beane?
The anti-A’s stuff is amusing. Lots of energy expended on hating a team’s farm system, and the self-awareness of the posts might be pushing a 5th grade level.
Is it really Billy Beane that causes all the knicker twisting? Can’t be the fans. They’re no more or less obnoxious than any of the A’s-haters.
A’s fans act no differently than other fans here or anywhere else. In fact, they may be a bit tame compared to Red Sox and Yankee fans. Yet a quick head count of the panties-in-a-bunch-over-the-A’s crowd reveals a lot of, well, it sure seems like Oakland Athletics envy.
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 14, 2026 11:33 PM EST
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You seem to be
the only one here with panties bunched.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 12:15 AM EST
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+1
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Jan 15, 2026 12:50 AM EST
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I disagree
Check out the “suck it Oakland” comment above.
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:47 AM EST
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I don't think that poster
has his panties bunched, it’s an internet raspberry, not serious.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 8:25 AM EST
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What did Billy Beane do?
Anyway, I’d agree with BA. Texas is #1. I’d definitely put us over the Marlins at #2 though. I dont think it’s all that close either.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Jan 15, 2026 12:54 AM EST
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A's are #3
I think #3 is about right. There’s a gap in impact hitters and both Texas and Florida have more balance throughout their systems.
Still, the vitriol in these A’s attacks makes me chuckle. I wasn’t kidding when I asked the question about Beane. Two posters with counting deficiencies aside, there is actual reveling going on here because the A’s have the (gasp!) #3 farm system in baseball and not #1 or #2.
I really want to know what’s behind the heavy anti-A’s sentiment on this board and, more specifically, on this thread.
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 15, 2026 1:37 AM EST
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Anyone overrated and over-promoted is going to draw a backlash. See Derek Jeter.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 2:54 AM EST
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Have you not been on minorleagueball for long??
Seems like the most over-the-top fan bases here are Texas, Oakland and SF. Lots of bay area love here for some reason. I’m pretty sure that is the reason for the hatred, and nothing to do with Beane.
by guru4u on
Jan 15, 2026 7:50 AM EST
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Day One
And reading John since his Stats, Inc. days. The Texas/SF/Oakland stuff is pretty recent and likely connected to the development of the Texas and SF systems.
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 15, 2026 9:55 AM EST
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It's Billy Beane
Go to any baseball board and you’ll find some hardcore A’s haters. Way more than for other comparable teams. People don’t hate the Twins and they’re essentially the A’s. They don’t hate the Royals and they’re the A’s without the success. What’s the difference? Duh. Whatever people say, there’s still a lot of underlying resentment toward Beane because “he” said a lot of people were stupid. People haven’t forgotten that and they won’t for a while.
by jdr on
Jan 15, 2026 3:57 PM EST
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It's also perpetuated by people like Ken Harrelson
Who publicly rip Billy Beane any chance they get. This skews the view of the average baseball fan who is told that this evil GM is trying to steal the game they love.
by thejd44 on
Jan 16, 2026 4:40 AM EST
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You mean the average White Sox fan...
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 5:01 AM EST
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I just don't see it as vitriol
in either direction. Picture a bunch of guys sitting around with beers trash talking about their favorite teams, that’s all this is. You’re overreacting.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 8:26 AM EST
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Apples to Oranges
I disagree with your characterization of the discussion. Friends sitting around can get away with that. They’re friends. There is no indication of underlying respect in the comments to which I refer.
Now: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/vitriol
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 15, 2026 10:02 AM EST
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I still say it's your problem
if you take these comments with any degree of seriousness. Relax and get over it.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 11:11 AM EST
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I'm not relaxed?
I stated from the get-go that this makes me chuckle. Having a conversation does not automatically equate to being uptight. Why must you assign blame?
by ToddyBaseball on
Jan 15, 2026 11:32 AM EST
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Ok, restate
why do you assume that the others you’re criticizing are not relaxed and chuckling as well? I’m not assigning blame for anything.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on
Jan 15, 2026 2:12 PM EST
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Florida more balance?
Where is their pitching?
by AthleticsReign on
Jan 15, 2026 4:48 PM EST
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He wrote moneyball, remember?
Just ask Joe Morgan
by JayWise on
Jan 15, 2026 11:09 AM EST
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Why is Florida's system better than ours?
I’ll admit I’m not completely familiar with their system, but after their “big 4” (Morrison, Maybin, Dominguez, Stanton), they dont even come close to comparing to our system IMO.
Why so much anti-A’s stuff? The same reason for the anti-Rangers sentiment. Ballot-stuffing in the prospect list, and because they have a lot of good prospects that people like to talk about.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:50 AM EST
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A post that basically says "I don't know much about them, but they don't come close to us"
is not going to win friends among those who don’t like fanboyism from opposing fans.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 15, 2026 2:56 AM EST
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Ugh
I’ll admit I’m not completely familiar with their system… they dont even come close to comparing to our system IMO.
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/9/715104/florida-marlins-top-20-pro
You are on site right now that can help you.
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:39 PM EST
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Actually, I went to their top 20 list before I posted that.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
by hero66 on
Jan 15, 2026 11:21 PM EST
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Pitching is king
Oakland has pitching and as obvious in the case of Tampa Bay and the Red Sox and the Angels, it’s pitching that bring championships. The Phillies needed Hamels to win this year.
by HarbirD on
Jan 15, 2026 2:10 AM EST
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Texas has BETTER pitching
Feliz, Holland, Perez, Main, Beavan, etc. Oakland has two great pitching prospects followed by a bunch of overhyped long relievers.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 15, 2026 12:13 PM EST
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Id rather have...
Cahill, Anderson, Simmons, Gonzalez, Gallagher, Mazzaro, Rodriguez, Inoa, De Los Santos, Brett Hunter.
"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com
by Syphon on
Jan 15, 2026 3:47 PM EST
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+1
Pretty close, but I would definitely take Oakland’s group.
I actually like Cahill and Anderson better than Feliz and Holland - and theyre certainly less risky. I could understand people who like the Texas top two more, though. Yet, even if youre a Feliz/Holland guy there is considerably less risk in the Oakland group and just about the same upside.
Dont get me wrong, any team would be blessed to have EITHER group, so we’re splitting hairs… but I would take the Oakland group.
by alskor on
Jan 15, 2026 4:41 PM EST
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From todays KLaw chat
Michael (CT): Best pitching prospect not named David Price? Feliz? Hanson? Bumgarner?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:49 PM ET ) Feliz
by laxtonto on
Jan 15, 2026 5:07 PM EST
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Yeah
I disagree with Mr. Law. I do that kind of often. Im sure even he would admit the difference isnt huge and its perfectly reasonable for someone to like Cahill over Feliz.
by alskor on
Jan 15, 2026 5:44 PM EST
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It's not that I agree or disagree so much with Law. It's that I don't respect his opinion.
The guy has no scouting background and gives opinions based on his observations. I don’t see how his opinion is any better than any other fan who watches a lot of games.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:12 AM EST
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The guy has no scouting background
This is inaccurate. Part of his responsibilities for the Jays included scouting. He was never a “scout” per se, but he’s got much more background than you or I. From the horse’s mouth:
I started out with one responsibility: handling our statistical analysis work and using it to advise the GM on player personnel moves in all areas, from the draft to trades to free agent signings. Over time, I became more involved with the scouting department and was fortunate enough to fall in with some experienced scouts who were willing to help me learn that side of the business.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 9:55 AM EST
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Oh good. He has more scouting background than me. What next? He's a better
saxophone player? Speaks better Arabic?
Being a better scout than me doesn’t make you a scout.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 11:35 AM EST
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You said "no scouting background"
wrong.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on
Jan 16, 2026 12:01 PM EST
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If mere exposure to a scouting department counts as a scouting
background then a lot of people have a background in a lot of things that they are not considered experts in, and don’t spout off about pretending to have a clue.
I stand by my statement. He has “no scouting background” any more than Barry Bonds has a journalism background, by virtue of having been interviewed by journalists, or Trixie has a racing background by virtue of having taken the wheel when Speed was jumping into the next car while driving at top speed.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 12:25 PM EST
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Working with scouts
in a professional baseball team setting is certainly a “scouting background.” To think otherwise is just showing your bias against him.
But, it’s not worth arguing about any further. Carry on.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on
Jan 16, 2026 2:02 PM EST
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Seems clear that he has a scouting background
“…was fortunate enough to fall in with some experienced scouts who were willing to help me learn that side of the business.”
Seems clear that he has a scouting background, assuming the statement is accurate, the statement above means that he learned how to scout from a bunch of experienced scouts.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Jan 16, 2026 6:45 PM EST
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Disagree
I’d much rather have 5 great hitting prospects and some decent pitching ones than vice versa. The hitters are much more likely to pan out.
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:40 PM EST
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Isn't this already considered in the prospect rankings?
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:13 AM EST
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Not really
There is a reason John does two separate top 50 lists. The A through C scale explicitly does not mean the same thing for pitchers and hitters.
by aCone419 on
Jan 16, 2026 9:56 AM EST
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I would like to see this verified by Sickels
Then why bother having the same scale for each type of player? That would just cause confusion if this was true.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Jan 16, 2026 6:47 PM EST
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I disagree with the disagree
If you had the choice of 5 great hitting prospects and decent pitching or 5 great pitchers and decent hitting, it would be better to have the latter.
THT showed in a study that having good pitching lowers the runs scored you need to do in order to attain the same winning percentage using Pythagorean. So for example, if you have an average league 4.5 runs environment. Let’s say great translate to 0.5 runs +/-. Team 1 has great hitting but average pitching, meaning 5.0 RS, 4.5 RA, that’s .552 Pct, or 89.5 wins. Team 2 has great pitching and average hitting, meaning 4.5 RS, 4.0 RA, that’s .559 Pct, or 90.5 wins. It is better to have great pitching.
In addition, a team with the 5 great pitchers could use them all in the rotation. A team with 5 great hitters most probably will find that they have two 1B or LF or RF, and be forced to trade to get someone else, which could result in lost value.
The reason there is a risk for a loss in value is because the market is limited to the 30 teams in the majors. Most teams could or would take an improvement in pitching in trade, and your team could try to work out a deal with a deal with enough talent to match the player you want to trade; but if you have a hitter, you are limited to the teams who are looking for a player for that position or who would like an upgrade in that position. But every team has a varying amount of talent in the minors, and thus the team could end up with less value in trade because of this.
In addition, two different studies - one by THT (on-line), the other by BP (in their book) - have found that success in the playoffs is significantly linked to having better pitching and defense, whereas there was no such link with offense. Thus the team with the great pitching will have the ingredients that link most with success in the playoffs, while the team with the great offense don’t.
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Jan 16, 2026 7:04 PM EST
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I don't think John rates the Marlins better than the A's.
He had to list 25 A’s prospects who were C+ or better. The Marlins have 16. Each team has two A- players. The Marlins have 3 B+ and 3 B. the A’s have no B+ and 6 B. The A’s also have 7 B- to the Marlins’ 3. I don’t know about anybody else, but I think 10 more C+ prospects and the B- difference is at least equal to the difference between B and B+ on 3 guys.
Based on the grades, I’d say Sickels has the A’s #2.
by thejd44 on
Jan 15, 2026 4:51 AM EST
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I would tend to agree based on Sickels rankings
Texas #1
Oakland #2
but either way, it really doesn’t matter. If you are in the top 5, you’re doing good. It’s about translated those players to the Bigs and in turn translating into Big League Wins for your ball clubs.
Wait 'til the year after next
by NothinG on
Jan 15, 2026 11:55 AM EST
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Look here
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/9/715688/team-rankings
There was a whole long fanpost about this.
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 1:42 PM EST
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That doesnt answer the question, though. I dont think we can just assume the best methodology for determining best farm system is to average the top 20. Why not the top 5? Why not the top 10? Why not the top 50? Is there a compelling reason to value one sample over another? Im not sure there is.
by alskor on
Jan 15, 2026 1:58 PM EST
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Didn't say it answered anything
Just pointing out that there was a fanpost devoted to the relative grade weighting and calculation that thejd44 was talking about.
by aCone419 on
Jan 15, 2026 2:37 PM EST
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You could attach future expected WAR for each grade level -- e.g. 25 for A, 20 for A-
or something. Anything below C+ is likely to be negligible.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on
Jan 16, 2026 4:14 AM EST
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