Here is a retrospective look at the Top 50 Pitching Prospects list from 2004.
1) Zack Greinke, RHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade A: One of the best young pitchers in the game.
2) Ryan Wagner, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade A: Fumbling around due to command problems.
3) Edwin Jackson, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A: Progress has been slow but has had flashes of success.
4) Joe Blanton, RHP, Oakland Athletics, Grade A-: Developed into a solid inning-eater.
5) Scott Kazmir, LHP, New York Mets, Grade A-: Excellent when healthy.
6) Cole Hamels, LHP,
7) Dustin McGowan, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
8) Adam Wainwright, RHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade A-: Effective when healthy.
9) Gavin Floyd, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade A-: Looked like a bust until 2008. Can he sustain this?
10) Kris Honel, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Grade A-: Ruined by injuries.
11) Greg Miller, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade A-: Injuries and control problems.
12) Jimmy Gobble, LHP, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+: Failed as a starter, has had some success in bullpen.
13) Ervin Santana, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Very very good pitcher.
14) Joel Hanrahan, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+: Looked like a bust for awhile, but had a good year in 2008.
15) Merkin Valdez, RHP,
16) Blake Hawksworth, RHP,
17) Jesse Crain, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Solid middle reliever.
18) John Maine, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Effective when healthy.
19) Angel Guzman, RHP,
20) Chadd Blasko, RHP,
21) Macay McBride, LHP, Atlanta Braves, Grade B+: Mediocre reliever, injuries.
22) Taylor Buchholz, RHP, Houston Astros, Grade B+: A nice solid bullpen arm.
23) Manny Parra, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B+: Still putting it together, decent in 2008.
24) David Bush, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: A decent control artist starter.
25) Chad Gaudin, RHP,
26) Brian Bruney, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+: Average bullpen arm.
27) Bobby Jenks, RHP, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Successful closer.
28) Andy Sisco, LHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Good year in 2005, fell apart in ’06, command and health issues.
29) Francisco Cruceta, RHP, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+: Hanging around Triple-A, as received just 26 major league innings.
30) Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Looks good so far, can arm hold up?
31) Joel Zumaya, RHP, Detroit Tigers, Grade B+: Has been successful when healthy.
32) Dan Meyer, LHP,
33) Denny Bautista, RHP, Baltimore Orioles, Grade B+: Control problems, never harnessed stuff.
34) Jason Young, RHP,
35) Sean Burnett, LHP,
36) Chin-hui Tsao, RHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Injuries.
37) Travis Blackley, LHP,
38) Jeff Francis, LHP, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Successful when healthy.
39) Clint Nageotte, RHP, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Injuries and control problems.
40) Josh Banks, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Quadruple-A type, good control but lack of stuff holds him back.
41) Jon VanBenschoten, RHP,
42) Boof Bonser, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B+: Good rookie year in 2006, has struggled since.
43) Ricky Nolasco, RHP, Chicago Cubs, Grade B+: Very impressive 2008 season.
44) Ian Oquendo, RHP,
45) Chad Cordero, RHP, Montreal Expos, Grade B: Pitched great 2004-2007, then hurt in ’08.
46) Kevin Correia, RHP, San Francisco Giants, Grade B: Good seasons in ’06 and ’07, useful utility pitcher.
47) Ryan Madson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies, Grade B: A very good relief arm.
48) Dustin Nippert, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Injuries have rendered him a below average pitcher.
49) Dustin Moseley, RHP, Cincinnati Reds, Grade B: Below average pitcher. 50) Grant Balfour, RHP, Minnesota Twins, Grade B: Solid bullpen arm when healthy.
I’m very happy with this list. Most of the failures were due to injuries.