I’ve been doing a top 50 Cubs prospect list over at BCB. My 1-14 is still up, along with a revised list.

Anyhow, I gave those guys the same grades.

My Cubs 1-50 list (other comments can be found at BCB). I am thinking of bumping Guyer up, though. There’s enough performance and upside to justify a C+ I think.

1. Josh Vitters, B+
2. Jeff Samardzija, B
3. Jay Jackson, B-
4. Andrew Cashner, B-
5. Ryan Flaherty, B-
6. Welington Castillo, B-
7. Jovan Rosa, B-
8. Tyler Colvin, C+
9. Starlin Castro, C+
10. Hak-Ju Lee, C+.

11. Jeff Stevens, RP, C+.

I had a tough time figuring out where to place him. Stevens was the arm the Indians received in that disastrous Brandon Phillips deal. He was actually decent as a starter in 2006 after joining Cleveland, going 7-3 with a 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances (15 starts) in Low A, with a 7 K rate and a 2 walk rate. Not bad. In 2007, the Indians shifted him to the pen, and he took off a bit. He still had his excellent control, and when he made the jump from High A to AA, his K rate climbed to the 12 range. 2008 saw more of the same, as he went 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 28.2 AA innings, with a 11.62 K rate. The walks, though, rose to a 3.45 rate. He moved to AAA, logging 29.2 innings with a 13.35 K rate, although the walk rate moved up some more, to 4.85. In 2007 and 2008, Stevens was on Team USA in the World Championships and the Olympics. He’s an intriguing late inning arm that has reportedly been more consistent in the mid-90’s while offering a good curve. An Indians prospect site suggests he has a cutter/change/slider as well. My biggest concern is that walk rate, which initially had me thinking of him in the 15-35 range. That said, is this a byproduct from trying out different pitches? The stuff is still there. At the end of the day, he’s ready, he’s a notch above Kevin Hart, and I can’t help but think that he’s a more advanced version of Dan McDaniel, a guy who could’ve been a starter but both were put in the pen to accelerate their development. Thus, after further consideration, I’m going with the 11 slot for him for now, and a C+. Another guy he feels like, to me, is Kevin Gregg, as you see Stevens effectiveness against lefties. If Stevens is with us, I’m thinking AAA and potential callup, as he’s on the 40 man.

12. Dan McDaniel, C+.
13. Mitch Atkins, C+.
14. Esmailin Caridad, C+.
15. Micah Hoffpauir, C+.
16. Dae-Eun Rhee*.
17. Kevin Hart.
18. Brandon Guyer.
19. Casey Coleman.
20. Junior Lake.
21. Aaron Shafer

22. Chris Carpenter.
23. Larry Suarez.

Another small change – Carpenter’s upside is still excellent and he’s more advanced than Suarez. Despite his poor start, I think Carpenter deserves the benefit of the doubt and the edge.

24. Tony Thomas
25. Casey Lambert
26. Rocky Roquet

27. Alessandro Maestri
28. James Russell
29. Justin Bristow
30. Nate Spears

Some more changes. The upside of the arms was too much for me to pass on in the end, so slid Spears down.

31. Jeremy Papelbon
32. Nate Samson
33. Matt Cerda
34. Jeff Antigua

Some wholesale changes from here on out.

35. Marquez Smith – I think, after further consideration, I was undervaluing him. Here’s a versatile talent with an intriguing bat. I wouldn’t mind seeing him used in RF if his bat develops.

37. Jake Fox
37. Darwin Barney
38. Jose Ascanio
39. Randy Wells – Slides down because, well, his value is his readiness and ability to be a long man. Not exactly assets that really scream out in value. Ascanio has a higher upside arm, Barney is at a more critical position, and Jake Fox still offers some pop.

40. John Gaub, LHP

My early feel on where to place Gaub puts him here. The former Golden Gopher, Gaub came out of college as a potential power lefty that, on occasion, showed a plus curve and change. He dropped in the 2006 draft, though, due to injury. 2008 was his first full season, only logging 4 innings in the regular season of 2007. Gaub was dominant in low A, with a 2.23 FIP in 64 innings, all relief appearances, with 100 K’s. That’s a 14.06 K rate. The 4.5 Walk rate is a bit troublesome. That said, take things with a grain of salt. Yes, he was injured, but he was still a college arm with a plus breaking ball. That racks up K’s in the minors. According to Tony Lastoria, Gaub throws in the low 90’s now, never regaining his collegiate velocity fully. The curve was scrapped for a slider, which has to be good to rack up those K’s, and he has a junk changeup. Gaub reminds you of guys like Casey Lambert and Rich Hill. The development of the change would make him a borderline starter, but the better bet is that he adds to our lefty minor league depth. Definite command issues, and Lastoria makes it sound liIf he ever gets his college velo, then he becomes really intriguing. If he stays with us, I imagine he’ll start 2009 off in High A Daytona as a pen arm, unless they try him as a starter again.

41. Brian Schlitter. I think I’m underrating the development of his slider. Offers more late inning potential than Parker or Latham.

42. Robert Hernandez. A lot of work, but still a potentially intriguing young starting caliber arm.

43. Marcos Mateo
44. Blake Parker – Am I overvaluing pen arms?
45. Jordan Latham – Am I overvaluing pen arms?
46. Drew Rundle
47. Dylan Johnston
48. Logan Watkins. Very raw, but showed some positive signs.

49. Chris Archer, P.

My initial gut feeling on where to place Archer finds him at the end of a top 50 list. Like Gaub, he was a 2006 pick, a guy that came out of HS with a plus curve. He’s got a good 6’3" frame that he may fill out a bit more. Lastoria suggests that the plus curve is still there, and that the fastball velo sits in the low-90’s, with room to grow. He’s still got work, and Lastoria suggests that delivery/mechanical issues may need to be addressed, along with the changeup’s development. If he can get his command under control, he could be an excellent rotation prospect in a few years. A high upside arm, if he’s in our organization, I think we’ll play it safe and start him at Peoria.

50. Nelson Perez. So much upside, so raw.

Probably shouldn’t have been posted publicly, but I thought it offered fodder for rescoring analysis. I believe the content was from about October, so change is appropriate.

So far there are about 130+ players ranked B or better across all org, with only the Marlins (who should certainly add a few). Assuming each org isn’t graded on its own curve, a grade of B or better would be required to make your top 100, so prior guys on this list not ranked that well would either go out, have changed in your mind since, or require scoring revision.

For example, Betances and Mc Allister of NYY made this list, but wouldn’t as B- grades. There are plenty of examples of B- and C+ players on the October list. Things change, and should, and maybe the emphasis of this list varies from your criteria here. But it seemed a good source to check your feelings over time, and whether grade revisions are required.As another example, the Cardinals had 4 B- and C+ players on the 100 list, yet Chris Perez, a B+ in your recent grading, wasn’t on. You mentioned that the Cards prospects were a bit tough in your recent Top 20 . Thought testing grades against your prior thoughts might prove fruitful for some grade revision opportunities. Also lots of current B’s and a couple of other B‘s weren’t on the list - maybe some deserve another look.

As a NYY fan, I thought Mc Allister (and Melancon) might deserve some consideration for a B - Betances still might have some work to do. Contrary to many Yanks fans though, I agree that Brackman has some demonstrating to do, as does A-Jax. I also think more of our lower level prospects have C+ in them, but that’s a meaningless quibble.