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Top 50 Hitting Prospects of 2004

Mauer5_medium

Every year I review the previous season's Top 50/50 list in the introduction of the book. Of course, it's impossible to fully assess a list on such short notice, so periodically I also go back and review lists from several years past. We reviewed lists from previous seasons this past summer, but we ended with 2003. Let's begin again and assess the 2004 list. Here is the Top 50 Hitting Prospects list from the 2004 Baseball Prospect Book. We'll do the pitchers tomorrow, then this weekend I will start posting book excerpts.

TOP 50 Hitting Prospects of 2004
1) Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins, Grade A. I'd say this one turned out very well.
2) Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland Athletics, Grade A. Started off decently, but injuries seem to have ruined him.
3) Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A. Still has the tools and flashes the skills, speed, walks, some power, but hasn't lived up to expectations. Injuries have been a factor.
4) B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay, Grade A. Just getting started. Results have been somewhat erratic, but 2007 was excellent.
5) Casey Kotchman, 1B, Anaheim Angels, Grade A: Aside from a good year in 2007, hasn't lived up to expectations. Injuries have not helped.
6) Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins, Grade A: He's really good.
7) Andy Marte, 3B, Atlanta Braves, Grade A-: Huge bust it looks like. Just never grew from where he was.
8) Jeff Mathis, C, Anaheim Angels, Grade A- Bat never got going, textbook case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome. The term is descriptive more than analytical, and I'm working a piece right now about the history of catching prospects.
9) David Wright, 3B, New York Mets, Grade A-: An outstanding player.
10) Jeremy Reed, OF, Chicago White Sox, Grade A- Couldn't sustain the high batting average. Didn't pay enough attention to BABIP.
11) Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians, Grade A-: Outstanding player.
12) Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade A-: Outstanding player.
13) Scott Hairston, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+ Not great obviously, but he's had flashes of success.
14) Alexis Rios, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Solid regular outfielder.
15) Josh Barfield, 2B, San Diego Padres, Grade B+: Quite disappointing. Second basemen sometimes seem to stagnate as well.
16) Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay, Grade B+: Still trying to put things together, but still very young.
17) Jason Bay, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates, Grade B+: Has had a very fine career.
18) David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City Royals, Grade B+:
Solid player, not a star.
19) Mike Aubrey, 1B, Cleveland Indians, Grade B+:
Ruined by back injuries. Bust.
20) Dallas McPherson, 3B, Anaheim Angels, Grade B+: Back injuries and strikeouts. Could still have a career as a role slugger, but don't expect a good average.
21) Dioner Navarro, C, New York Yankees, Grade B+. Good year in 2008 and still rather young.
22) Khalil Greene, SS, San Diego Padres, Grade B+: He's not great, but can't call a guy who holds a regular job for that long a 'bust."
23) Guillermo Quiroz, C, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Great in Double-A at age 21, but never hit after that and has had injury problems. Bust.
24) James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B+: A very fine young hitter.
25) Gabe Gross, OF, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: A useful role player.
26) Jayson Nix, 2B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B+: Undone by poor strike zone judgment. Bust.
27) Brent Clevlen, OF, Detroit Tigers, Grade B+: Bad plate discipline has held him back. Probably a bust but still a slight chance.
28) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida Marlins, Grade B+: Excellent in 2007, not as good last year. Still young.
29) Jose Lopez, SS, Seattle Mariners, Grade B+: Solid regular.
30) Aaron Hill, SS, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+ Not  a bad player when healthy.
31) Sergio Santos, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B+: Was always young for his leagues, but that wasn't enough in the end. Bust.
32) Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston Red Sox, Grade B+ A terrific player.
33) Larry Broadway, 1B, Montreal Expos, Grade B+: Topped out as a minor league slugger. Bust.
34) Jason Lane, OF, Houston Astros, Grade B: Effective in 2004 and 2005, then tailed off fast.
35) Chad Tracy, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks, Grade B: Very good 2004-2006, but has tailed off since then due to injury.
36) Chris Burke, 2B, Houston Astros, Grade B: Wasn't hanlded well, bat stagnated, injuries, didn't adjust his minor league numbers sufficiently. 
37) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Texas Rangers, Grade B: Needed some adjustment time but a fine regular.
38) Justin Huber, C, New York Mets, Grade B: Traded to Royals, converted to first base, had some injuries, bat looks like it has topped out in Triple-A. Probable Bust.
39) Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta Braves, Grade B: A solid regular.
40) Russ Adams, SS, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B: Just didn't hit in the majors.
41) J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B: Solid regular.
42) Corey Hart, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers, Grade B: Solid player.
43) Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado Rockies, Grade B: Too soon to know for sure, but I still think he will be a solid player, though not a star.
44) Shin-soo Choo, OF, Seattle Mariners, Grade B:
Career .291/.377/.493 hitter in 509 at-bats. Hard to call that a bust, even if he doesn't get playing time.
45) Jeff Francouer, OF, Atlanta Braves, Grade B: Lack of plate discipline is holding him back and may ruin him.
46) Aaron Baldiris, 3B, New York Mets, Grade B: Bust. Line drive guy just didn't develop enough.
47) Delwyn Young, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers, Grade B: Looks like he is stuck as a role player.
48) Erick Aybar, SS, Anahiim Angels, Grade B: Still unclear how his career will develop.
49) Alberto Callaspo, 2B, Anaheim Angels, Grade B: He can hit a little, but perhaps not enough to be a full-time regular for a good team.
50) Cody Ross, OF, Detroit Tigers, Grade B: Career .261/.324/.493 line can't be called bust. Useful bat.

Biggest busts look like Marte, Mathis, Reed (in comparison to what was expected), Aubrey, Quiroz, Broadway, Santos, Burke, and Huber


2 recs  |  Comment 70 comments

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Hmmm who would be the best if we ranked them now? I’d probably throw Han Ram at the top followed by Sizemore, Morneau and Mauer and then maybe Fielder. Not a bad group of hitters though.

by yondaime4 on Jan 15, 2026 12:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

David Wright

?

by Pelferized on Jan 15, 2026 4:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My order would be...

Ramirez, Wright, Sizemore, Mauer, Morneau, and Fielder.

by aap212 on Jan 15, 2026 6:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

by Pelferized on Jan 16, 2026 12:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd have Gonzo up past Fielder, Mauer, and Sizemore

He’s pretty freakishly underrated.

by boonitez on Jan 16, 2026 12:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Hanley is in a class of his own.

Hard to truely rank the difference between Wright / Sizemore / Mauer

Morneau and Fielder are good but clearly 3rd tier compare to those guys.

by RollingWave on Jan 16, 2026 6:02 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I forgot about A-Gon

But to put him past Sizemore is kinda crazy.

by aap212 on Jan 16, 2026 2:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

sorry I’ve never been a huge fan of wright, but he is probably better than fielder. so I’d probably tag him at the end.

by yondaime4 on Jan 16, 2026 7:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What are you not a fan of?

I mean, he’s a better hitter than Morneau and plays a harder position.

by aap212 on Jan 17, 2026 9:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sergio Santos

“Was always young for his leagues, but that wasn’t enough in the end. Bust.”

Huh, who does this sound like? Fernando Martinez, maybe? Carlos Triunfel? Ohh, ohh, what about Elvis Andrus? Yes, it sounds very much like Elvis Andrus (with more power, less speed).

/cue death threats

by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 15, 2026 12:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

thorough.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Jan 15, 2026 12:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually..

it describes FMart much more than Andrus. If you look at Santos’ numbers, they were never that good in the minors, but everyone used the “look how young he is though!” excuse. Much like you hear for Martinez. Andrus has actually performed very well in comparison.

Oh, let me reply to myself for everyone:

“Blah blah blah… power potential. Blah blah blah….. OPS. Blah blah blah…. I am a smart fan who can quote all sorts of stats, but in the end all I care about are homeruns! Power, OPS, power, and OPS.”

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 15, 2026 1:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Santos became a fatass, that's why he stopped hitting

he was pushing 250 last year in syracuse before getting cut.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 15, 2026 5:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Santos' numbers weren't good?

He was a year older than Andrus in A+ and AA, but he posted lines of .287/.368/.408 and .282/.332/.461, while Andrus went .257/.338/.343 and .295/.350/.367. It wasn’t until he hit AAA that Santos stagnated, and last time I checked Andrus hasn’t made that jump either.

Look, don’t get me wrong, I may not be as high on Andrus as some others, but I don’t think he will be a bust. I realize him and Santos are very different players. Still, when you just blatantly lie about the numbers to try and make yourself look right, you just end up looking like a fool.

by nixa37 on Jan 15, 2026 7:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Its not even

that great a comp for F-Mart. Santos didn’t reach AA until after his 20th birthday and he couldn’t even manage a .300 OBP. F-Mart at least has an average batting eye for a AA hitter, and he was well ahead of Santos when he debuted in AA at age 18, nearly two years younger than the age when Santos cracked AA. Santos got a boost because he played SS, but there’s nothing in his #s to suggest a speed profile like Andrus, so I imagine there was probably some doubt as to whether he’d stick. Santos was still young for his league, but he was still both older than and statistically inferior to Martinez

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 16, 2026 3:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That is

Santos didn’t manage a .300 OBP in his AA debut. He was more solid the following year hitting .282 / .329 / .461, but that’s still almost exactly what F-Mart did at AA in his second run, still matching Santos while playing in the same league and a year and a half younger.

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 16, 2026 3:36 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Andrus?

Andrus isn’t much at all like Santos for one really big reason: defense.

It’s entirely possible that Andrus ends up becoming a solid-but-unspectacular regular who doesn’t hit all that much at all but supplies a good glove at shortstop. If he hits at all he stands a good chance of being an excellent value. Santos was always going to need to hit - he was a big boy who profiled as a corner position player, and not one who was going to provide significant value through his defense.

by mrkupe on Jan 15, 2026 7:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

angels

Is it just me or does there seem to be a lot of Angels players that have ended up with uncertain futures/development?

by blinkshot on Jan 15, 2026 1:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

I know others on this board have said this as well, but I stay the heck away from their prospects now when I am drafting for my sim league. One thing I have wondered about is their minor league system. Their HiA team is in the Cal League, their AA team is a Texas League team, and then their AAA team is in the PCL. Three of the most hitter friendly leagues in all of the minor leagues. Does this artificially inflate their numbers, thus their prospect ranking? Or do the players just get used to that sort of environment and can’t adjust when they reach the majors? I know the LAA aren’t the only team with their HiA, AA, and AAA teams in those leagues, so has it just been bad luck that the Angels can’t seem to produce hitters lately but Oakland and Texas can?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 15, 2026 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oakland's produced hitters?

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 15, 2026 8:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hitters parks

The Angels minor league system is filled with hitter park at almost every stop past A ball. This might have caused some of their players to be overrated slightl, specifically, the ones with contact issues but with significant power; ex. Wood, McPherson, and Morales. They are/were prospects in there own right but I think the environments they played in helped hide issues that they might have.

I think Colorado system has a similar problem with prospects often putting up impressive numbers at one or more levels then dissapointing further on. For example, Jeff Salazar had an ISO of almost .250 in 2003 at Asheville then OPS 1.000 in 2004 at Visalia.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 15, 2026 2:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kendry Morales

Morales doesn’t really fit the mold of a McPherson/Wood low-contact high-power slugger. He’s a career .332 hitter in the minors that doesn’t strikeout (or walk for that matter) very often, but logjams at the major league roster, inability to find a permanent defensive home and injuries have curtailed his impact on the major league level. He doesn’t have 400 ABs in the majors even though he’s played part of three seasons and is still has yet to turn 26 years old. I think Morales just happened to be in a very lousy situation in terms of organizational depth and still has time to make his mark for some team at the major league level.

by Grudyfan on Jan 15, 2026 6:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Poorly worded on my part

Kendry Morales was made to look like a better hitter than he actually was due to inflated power numbers. I think Morales can break out if he is given the chance but I think was overrated after his 2005 season. You make a valid point though, I think he breaks out during his prime years and is a regular for a while.

Point remains the same though, with A+ team in the Cal League, AA team in the Texas League, and AAA team in PCL, they are filled with hitters parks. Looking for other players that have probably had inflated offensive numbers is easy to find , Sean Rodriguez, Matt Brown, Nick Gorneault all seem to have benefited from this. Realistically, the free swinging sluggers usually benefit the most, but other players can also.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 15, 2026 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

JJ Hardy

He was a hitting prospect? The dusty recesses of my mind recall him being rated a plus defender with decent hitting skills. More than anything that probably means my memory isn’t a plus defender. Any chance you could post what you wrote at the time John?

by Lovejoy on Jan 15, 2026 1:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

BA from 2004
Strengths: Hardy has a strong arm and good range at shortstop. Scouts were uncertain about his hitting ability when he was an amateur, but he has surprising pop and rarely strikes out because of his plate discipline. What the Brewers really like about Hardy, however, is his competitive nature. His makeup is off the charts.

by aCone419 on Jan 15, 2026 1:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks

by Lovejoy on Jan 15, 2026 2:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

position player

He was a position player prospect to be more precise.

by John Sickels on Jan 15, 2026 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

history of catching prospects

I’ll very much be looking forward to that post.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jan 15, 2026 2:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Very good list

Out of all the players on the list, only 13/50 do not look like they will play as a regular/backup. Most of the busts on the list are ones that dissapointed many people, ex Marte, Quiroz, Santos, Reed, and Huber.

Barfield’s decline really surprised many people I think, when he was traded to the Indians few expected that sort of decline. Lane really just aged poorly in my opinion(also the league adjusted to him probably), which is not that surprising looking at his numbers.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 15, 2026 2:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Flip Side

Great job on the Top 50 - only a few real busts…

Who are the players that should have been on this list in 2004? Who did you miss - if anyone?

by comish4lif on Jan 15, 2026 2:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

re: Flip Side

Nick Markakis?
Curtis Granderson?

Mark J. Anderson, Jr.
Managing Editor
TigsTown.com

by Microline133 on Jan 15, 2026 2:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Miguel Cabrera?

I know he got about 300 ABs in the majors in 2003, but I’m not sure you use that the same way BA does.

by Toddius on Jan 15, 2026 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

too many AB

Too many AB.

by John Sickels on Jan 15, 2026 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Markakis and Granderson

Markakis was just drafted in 2004. I gave him a Grade B-, noting his tools but also his lack of power at the time, and wanting more data from higher levels.

Granderson was rated a Grade B- after he hit .286/.365/.458 in the Florida State League. The comment said “this staitistcs could take an upward spike in 2004”. I wrote that I liked him, seeing him as either a good fourth outfielder or a decent thogh not spectacular regular.

by John Sickels on Jan 15, 2026 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Granderson/Markakis

Both fair grades and statements at the time, John.

Mark J. Anderson, Jr.
Managing Editor
TigsTown.com

by Microline133 on Jan 15, 2026 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious about this too

It seems like most of the best hitters are at the top of the list and then some of the comments are a little harsh on the guys that aren’t quite stars. When I read the DeJesus comment I was thinking, “Who later on this list is better?” and there’s not many (obviously Ramirez and Gonzalez are better). And then Francouer’s comment made me wonder who is off the list that’s better than him.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 15, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Most important question

this is a great list. Really good discussion here.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by JDSussman on Jan 15, 2026 5:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not a single Cardinal prospect on that list

Shows how far the system has come.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Jan 15, 2026 2:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

That was a solid list as far as panning out. Not as many busts as I would expect.

by Toddius on Jan 15, 2026 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Crosby

Crosby at number two, very interesting..

Matty Gaul
Toronto Blue Jays Beat Writer
Email: mattygaul34@hotmail.com
Phone: 902-840-0905 (Text only, please.)
Website: www.bluebirdbanter.com

by Matty Gaul on Jan 15, 2026 3:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think there were a lot of people

That saw Crosby in 2004 and thought about him what they later thought about Longoria at the start of 2008. Only Crosby played SS! Injuries really kept it from turning out that way.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 15, 2026 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

also

bobby crosby’s inexplicable desire to swing at any low and away slider kept him from turning out, well, not shitty

"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"

by travdog6 on Jan 16, 2026 6:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Understatement of the year

37) Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Texas Rangers, Grade B: Needed some adjustment time but a fine regular.

I’d say he is better than fine, probably top five at his position in MLB!

by drwmsu1 on Jan 15, 2026 3:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hard to see Adrian coming

Like HanRam, Adrian’s major league numbers have been better than his minor league numbers. In the minors he only put up one year with a SLG above .500 and that was a repeat (short) year in AAA. In the majors he has put up 3 consecutive SLG at .500 or better while playing half his games in a pitcher’s park. He almost doubled his HR rate after reaching the majors. That is a tough thing to predict.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 15, 2026 4:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not a prediction

I’m not commenting on where John had him rated, it is on John’s comment “needed some adjustment time but a fine regular”. I am saying that is the understatement! He is an excellent MLB player.
Although now the understatement of the year could be your calling PETCO “a pitcher’s park”. It is by far the best pitcher’s park in the game.
You are right though, no one predicted this power. Grace-like seemed to be the optimistic view back in the day.

by drwmsu1 on Jan 15, 2026 8:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I got that meaning too late

But the comment still works as a statement instead of a reply.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 16, 2026 12:33 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

J.J. Hardy as well. He’s much more than a solid regular.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jan 15, 2026 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

25 bombs per year as a shortstop ain’t bad.

by richieabernathy on Jan 16, 2026 10:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Along with fantastic defense.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Jan 16, 2026 9:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Indeed. Gonzo is awesome.

Also, the F!Mart/Santos comp is a bit of a stretch. F!Mart mashed in Full-Season A at 17. That’s production. He also tore the DWL apart this year. I’d say he was hampered by being too severely rushed and injuries. Still needs discipline at the plate. We’ll see how he does at AAA at age 20.

by JobiJoba on Jan 15, 2026 3:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

DeJesus nitpicking

considering his OBP skills and defense, I’d actually argue that he is a very good player.

by number_twentyone on Jan 15, 2026 4:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

Big David DeJesus fan. Throw out 2007 and your looking at a very good player indeed.

by Chalupa Cabrera on Jan 15, 2026 4:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yay!

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 15, 2026 6:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice coincidence

Matthew Pouliot just posted his look back at the 2004 prospects yesterday at Rotoworld. I’ve found Matthew to be very approachable and would love to know if you ever discussed any 2004 prospects with him.
Despite all the economic gloom 2009 has started marvelously. I’m glad you have Jeri back and can’t wait to read your book.

"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism

by chewbalka on Jan 15, 2026 4:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

callaspo

offense won’t be his problem. he could hit .300 and get on base at a .360 clip in his sleep. only reason he MIGHT be held back is defense.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 15, 2026 6:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

and beers

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 15, 2026 10:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

haha

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 15, 2026 10:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A thought, John

I was thinking about this list and the previous discussions held thus far on prospect busts. You asked the question: why did these prospects fail? It’s a good question, but an equally good question to me is: why were these prospects held in such high esteem in the first place? It seems to me that it would be beneficial to backtrack a little bit and re-examine just what it is that gives an elite prospect his unique standing. By examining the traits that allow a prospect to gain notice (examples of traits for a pitcher: statistical markers, fastball velocity, ARL, etc.), conceivably we could then find which traits tend to be overrated/underrated by prospect-watchers.

by mrkupe on Jan 15, 2026 7:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

+1

I agree - Noonan is as valuable as a dead horse… and he too should be beaten by some dude in a top hat who looks like he’s holding his junk.

by cool hand Charlie on Jan 15, 2026 11:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My guesses for elite prospects and their unique standings

Draft status - was a guy a first rounder or drafted in the last round?

What we generally know about the athlete - is he athlete, a plodder? Does the guy have a ‘projectable body?’

Youth - is this guy a young up-and-comer in his teens or early 20s? Is he a guy pushing baseball, journeyman status?

Buzz about their performance - a guy who hit .350 is going to get some hype from BA, then Baseball Prospectus, then minorleagueball.com and it just trickles down.

Where they played - the level of competition

A guestimation of who they might turn out to be at that time - your comps.

Makeup - maybe one thing no one really considers since not every expert can see guys in-person, day-in-day out. Maybe experts read the same press clippings over and over, but don’t really know about a guy until he becomes a bust.

by BBFan1 on Jan 16, 2026 1:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking something a little more specific

I’m starting to work on this, but this is what I’m suggesting: a breakdown, prospect-by-prospect, of the things that made them appear to be so valuable.

by mrkupe on Jan 16, 2026 1:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

K. Greene

…is also better than John’s comments. No Padre hitter has been more hurt by playing in Petco, he will benefit BIG TIME from moving the NL Central and its cadre of bandboxes.

by pffriberg on Jan 15, 2026 9:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I really don't think that Petco made him swing and miss at all those breaking balls

or hit them weakly for outs. But I will say he’s still a solid regular even with his flaws.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 16, 2026 12:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Best 12 Picks in Hindsight were frequently missed by everyone:

The focus so far on highly ranked busts seems to me to be off base. Teams don’t win or lose because of who doesn’t make it. They win or lose because of who actually plays on their team. I wanted to take a quick and dirty look at who had the best view of the players that turned out the best of the 2004 Prospects.

I identified the Top 12 prospects by Total WAR through 2008 in Fangraphs plus projected WAR in 2009 by CHONE. I added FRAA by Baseball Prospectus for catcher defense through 2008. Here they are with their ranking by John, Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus in 2004 (Rany Jazayerli):

1) David Wright — 35.1 WAR — John 9, BA 14, BP 5; Winner BP
2) Grady Sizemore — 34.9 — John 11, BA 7, BP 18; Winner BA
3) Joe Mauer — 30.5 — John 1, BA 1, BP 1; Winner None
4) Matt Holliday — 27.2 — John NR, BA NR, BP NR; Winner None

5) Jason Bay — 23.5 — John 17, BA 39, BP 28; Winner John
6) Hanley Ramirez — 22.1 — John 32, BA 26, BP NR; Winner BA
7) Curtis Granderson — 19.9 — John NR, BA NR, BP NR; Winner None
8) Russell Martin — 19.6 — John NR, BA NR, BP NR; Winner None

9) Ryan Howard — 19.2 — John NR, BA NR, BP NR; Winner None
10) Kevin Youkilis — 18.6 — John NR, BA NR, BP HM; Winner BP
11) Brian McCann — 18.3 — John NR, BA NR, BP NR; Winner None
12) David DeJesus — 17.1 — John 18, BA NR, BP 20; Winner John

After this there are about 19 more guys in the 10-17 WAR range. I did this quickly so there may be errors. Since BA and BP ranked pitchers with hitters, the rankings here are with the pitchers taken out.

The most striking thing to me is that five of the Top 12 weren’t ranked by anyone. Everyone agreed Mauer was the best. If we consider that the analyst who liked the prospect the best would have most likely acquired that player, then we have:

John’s Team — Bay, DeJesus 40.6 WAR
BA Team — Sizemore, Hanley 57.0 WAR
BP Team — Wright, Youkilis 53.7 WAR

Of these I’d guess that Hanley (Age 25), Sizemore (26) and Wright (26) have a brighter future after 2009 than do DeJesus (29), Youkilis (30) and Bay (30).

I’m not sure what to conclude from this — probably it means nothing — but it does indicate to me that the strident, dismissive criticisms of BA’s scouting based approach may be somewhat premature, if not simply wrong.

Of the guys no one ranked, I see two catchers (McCann and Martin), two hitters (Holliday and Howard) and a toolsy CF (Granderson). Not sure what to make of that either.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 16, 2026 3:17 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

I don't know how useful it is to compare to BP

Since they scrapped that system of prospect evaluation and brought in Kevin Goldstein.

1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.

by Wonko on Jan 16, 2026 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

True. Although they were the only ones to identify Youkilis early.

It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver

by WaddellCanseco on Jan 16, 2026 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments

Comments on the players mentioned by WaddellCanseco

Holliday: I gave him a Grade C. HIs numbers were unimpresive, and when I saw him in person for Tulsa he looked like shit..
Howard: I gave him a B-…impressed with his power, but very worried about his high strikeout rate in A-ball.
McCann: I gave him a Grade C+, but worried about his low walk rate. I did note he was “worth watching closely.”
MartIn: Not in the 2004 book. He played 2003 in short-season ball and I didn’t write about many short-season guys then.
Granderson: already covered him.

by John Sickels on Jan 17, 2026 1:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fielder vs. Rios?

Fielder is outstanding and Rios solid regular? I’d say it’s the other way around.

by viktor06 on Jan 16, 2026 6:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

HIs name is FRANCOEUR

I realize it’s a tricky name, but John’s just gotta get these right.

"That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet."

by criminal type on Jan 18, 2026 7:56 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Fran

I always screw up his name.

by John Sickels on Jan 18, 2026 1:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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