Update and Thursday Discussion Question
I have a nasty cold and feel like crap today, and to be honest I don't have the mental and emotional energy to do the planned All Questions Answered Thread. So I will put that off until next week sometime. In the meantime, here is a Discussion Question for you.
Which of these Oakland pitching prospect would you rather have, and why? Trevor Cahill or Henry Alberto Rodriguez.
Cahill was born March 1, 1988, and went 11-4, 2.73 with a 117/40 K/BB in 105 innings last year for Kane County in the Midwest League. He is 6-3, 195 pounds. His fastball is 88-92 MPH and he has an outstanding curveball and an improving changeup. He throws strikes and still has some projectability. His GO/AO ratio last year was 1.83. He was a second round pick in 2006 out of high school in Vista, California.
Rodriguez was born February 25, 1987, and went 6-8, 3.07 with a 106/58 K/BB in 99 innings for Kane County last year. He is 6-1, 175. He can hit 100 MPH but worked at 93-96 last year with better command. He has a good changeup, but his breaking ball is erratic. His command is shaky at times but he has dominant stuff. His GO/AO ratio last year was 1.19. He was signed as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2003.
So, who would you rather have?
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I'd rather have Cahill
I have both in a league with deep minor leaguers, but I think Cahill will be the better pitcher. Rodriguez reminds me of Daniel Cabrera, dominant stuff when he's on but not a clue where it's going to go when he's not. Rodriguez might have a higher ceiling, but Cahill is more likely to have the better career.
by Looneyt0on on Apr 3, 2026 2:47 PM EDT 0 recs
It's all about ceiling.
Guys like Cahill are a dime a dozen. Give me a top of the rotation guy like Rodiguez anyday.
If Rodriguez continues to show improved control, as he did this spring, he will skyrocket up prospect rankings.
by b1leper on Apr 3, 2026 2:54 PM EDT 0 recs
Exactly
When it comes to minor league pitching, its all about ceiling. If I'm building a team, I can sign free agent rotation filler for my number 4-5 slots, and can even spend more for a number 3, if I've grown an ace or two upfront.
Not to mention that with a fastball that fast (at top speed) and a decent changeup, Rodriguez should at least have a decent career as a reliever (and I've got to believe he can work at 96-100 if he's limited to an inning/outing).
High ceiling and relatively high floor? Sign me up
by Locke000 on
Apr 3, 2026 5:18 PM EDT
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+1
Cahill is not a prospect, whereas, even if you don't like Rodriguez's chances of succeeding, at least there's potential there. Rodriguez wins by default.
by bleedjaxblue on
Apr 3, 2026 5:25 PM EDT
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Good question.
Why would you say that Cahill isn't a prospect?
"It is like Menudo, where guys reach a certain age and are kicked out of the band. And they go on to be Ricky Martins somewhere else." -Billy Beane
by Stephen Webb on
Apr 3, 2026 6:14 PM EDT
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the way i read the scouting reports....
....Cahill sounds like Tyler Clippard 2.0.
he's someone who stat-lovers love, because he has a pretty K/BB. but all his scouting reports focus on his "maturity," which is always a huge warning sign for low-level pitchers that their stats won't translate to higher levels. couple this with a fastball that's described as 88-92, and i'm thinking there's not much there but a good feel for pitching.
that means, if everything goes right, he's a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. not useless. but not that interesting either.
there's a reason BA had him ranked 19th in the Midwest League. not a very impressive ranking (at such a low level too) for someone who ostensibly dominated the league.
by bleedjaxblue on
Apr 3, 2026 8:40 PM EDT
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Imagine that
He has "a good feel for pitching" and "maturity". He's loved by stat nerds and he has a nice K/BB. My god, that's terrible. Oh the horror. Stick a fork in him, he's done as a prospect.
Would you rather prefer pitchers who don't understand pitching, who are wild and raw? Cause from your post, that's what it sounds like.
And I wish people won't stop placing so much emphasis on his fastball velocity. You're all forgetting the fact that he has two other high quality pitches (unlike Rodriguez) along with much much better command. Fastball command is much more important than velocity.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on
Apr 3, 2026 9:20 PM EDT
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maturity's great....
.....but it only helps you retire major leaguers if your stuff is above a certain threshold.
"Would you rather prefer pitchers who don't understand pitching, who are wild and raw? Cause from your post, that's what it sounds like."
you're completely missing the point here.
if two pitchers had the same "stuff," and one was "mature" with a "good feel for pitching," and the other was "wild and raw," then i'd take the mature one in a second.
but that's NOT the situation i was talking about.
in this case, the comparison is between two pitchers in the low minors with identical STATISTICS.
maturity belies a lack of skill in the low minors, because most minor leaguers don't have a mature enough approach themselves to deal with well-located (even if mediocre) pitches.
IF a pitcher has no scouting buzz whatsoever, but a bunch of people who read box scores fall in love with a guy, then i question why.
that question is easily answered by the scouting reports: Cahill's stuff isn't impressive, but he is refined. these pitchers almost never work out, but that doesn't stop "stat nerds" from getting burned by them again and again. and then forgetting it ever happened, i guess.
and, no -- fastball velocity isn't everything. i just used it as a proxy for his stuff, which doesn't sound all that phenomenal:
"His stuff is fringy to average across the board right now, with his two best pitches an 88-92 mph fastball with late sink and a slider that has his moments. But he's polished..." -- BA Midwest League top 20
i did focus on fastball velocity a little, though, because, if he's 87-90 (which i suspect he is, since my experience is that ALL scouting reports have exaggerated velocities), that's simply unacceptable for a starting right-hander.
obviously, Rodriguez needs a lot of work, as you point out. but he at least has potential to be something a team will remember, not just a back-end starter. that was the whole point -- he has to be the better prospect (unless you're going by pure expected value).
by bleedjaxblue on
Apr 3, 2026 9:57 PM EDT
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Too many assumptions
First of all, you're making it sound like every successful big league pitcher has to have an overwhelming mid 90s fastball. That's simply not true. You and I both know it.
Second of all, because of his overwhelming fastball, you're assuming Rodriguez will have the better potential to be an ace, or "something a team will remember" in your words. That's not true either. His secondary stuff is very undeveloped. His command is also very undeveloped. Cahill trumps him in both. That BA report is inaccurate, because Cahill doesn't have a slider. He has an outstanding knuckle curve, and a pretty good change-up. Furthermore, his control is far better than Rodriguez's. And along with his better fastball command, I'd say all those qualities will make him far more likely to become an ace than Rodriguez at least at this stage in their careers.
And I don't know where you're getting the idea that they had identical statistics. It's not even close; look it up if you don't believe me. Oh, and remember that Cahill is one year younger.
I think that one BA scouting report has really prejudiced you against Cahill. It definitely doesn't give enough justice to Cahill's secondary pitches and his command. Scouting reports have been quite conflicting too, BA's scouting report on Cahill when he first got drafted lists him as having a 91-93 MPH fastball, along with an excellent curve which he can use to "overmatch" hitters. And for what it's worth, the same BA listed Cahill two spots ahead of Rodriguez on their A's top ten prospect list this year. I guess his supposed lack of stuff can't have hurt him too bad then, huh?
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on
Apr 3, 2026 11:58 PM EDT
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assumptions
i believe you're making just as many of them -- both about what i'm saying, and about what Cahill's doing.
First of all, you're making it sound like every successful big league pitcher has to have an overwhelming mid 90s fastball.
Well, no. I specifically disclaimed that I was talking about velocity exclusively. But I do believe that right-handed starters, in particular, are almost never successful without reaching a minimum threshold velocity. Right now, I believe that Cahill wouldn't be there.
Furthermore, if we're NOT just talking about velocity, it IS important for almost all pitchers to have a fastball that they can pitch off of. If you DON'T, you're lucky if you're a back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
------------
Second of all, because of his overwhelming fastball, you're assuming Rodriguez will have the better potential to be an ace
No. I believe that he has a better arm. I think it's more likely he gains good secondary pitches than it is that Cahill gains a good fastball (or, for that matter, a breaking ball hard enough to strike out major leaguers -- my guess is that his strikeouts now are coming from good location on a big breaking ball).
And I don't know where you're getting the idea that they had identical statistics.
It actually depresses me that you wrote that, because it gives me the feeling that nobody on this site reads anything carefully.
I did not compare Cahill and Rodriguez's stats.
I compared the stats of two hypothetical pitchers -- one of whom was described as "mature," and one of whom was "wild and raw."
i did this because you acted like it made no sense to discount a pitcher who was "mature," acting like it was a bad thing.
you want to read it again and see if you finally get the point?
---------------
I think that one BA scouting report has really prejudiced you against Cahill.
And I think that your A's allegiance and love of stats has really prejudiced you.
But it's not just that one scouting report for me. It's a collection of the people who have knocked him (and what they've said), with the types of people who've endorsed him (and what they've had to say).
Regardless, I guess we'll have to wait and see.
by bleedjaxblue on
Apr 10, 2025 2:41 AM EDT
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there's a reason BA had him ranked 19th in the Midwest League. not a very impressive ranking (at such a low level too)
And Henry Rodriguez didn't make the top 20.
I think (know...but we'll say think) you're severely underrating Cahill. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
http://as-future.blogspot.com/
by blee1134 on
Apr 4, 2025 12:58 PM EDT
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Rodriguez....
....didn't make the top 20 because of he's seen as a risk, not because of lack of upside.
i don't think Cahill has enough upside to make him worth discussing, so long as there's any reason to think Rodriguez is more than just a thrower. (nor do i think Cahill is a particularly small risk.)
but, like you said.....we'll wait and see.
by bleedjaxblue on
Apr 10, 2025 2:30 AM EDT
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...except if you're the A's
who don't have any money to sign free agent rotation filler to begin with, and wouldn't waste it on the Kyle Lohse's of the world even if they did, because that's a retarded strategy.
The only teams for whom the above strategy makes sense are teams with unlimited financial resources.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Apr 5, 2025 3:40 PM EDT
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Cahill
Rodriguez might be better suited for the bullpen if he is unable to harness his stuff. I love his velocity, but I dont even think Rodriguez knows himself of where it's gonna end up when the throws the heater.
As for Cahill, I think he could become a solid middle of the rotation starter. He is a smart kid that knows how to use his above average stuff. If he were to add a few clicks to the fastball (still possible), he will sky rocket up prospect rankings.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on Apr 3, 2026 2:55 PM EDT 0 recs
Cahill
I think it's a mistake to assign Rodriguez as the one with the higher upside. It's placing too much emphasis on Rodriguez's greater velocity. Remember, last year was Cahill's FIRST full year as a pitcher, and he pretty much dominated Low A. Not to mention that he's barely 20, one full year younger than Rodriguez. Cahill already trumps Rodriguez in command, number of quality pitches, and pretty much everything else besides velocity. Give him a year or two more of pitching experience and growth and I think he'll get his fastball consistently into the low to mid 90s.
That's not to say Rodriguez is very far beneath him. Both of these pitchers have tremendous upside.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 3, 2026 4:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Better Control
I would take Cahill. From what I have read, it seems that he as a better grasp of pitching and control. I take the guy that knows how to pitch and can throw all of his pitches with control. Rodriguez maybe be the flame thrower of the two but without control where will he be if he can't put the ball where he wants.
paw75
by paw75 on Apr 3, 2026 7:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Rodriguez
I have to agree with bleedjax, locke & lepper. I'll take the guy that has a huge ceiling over a guy that has a better chance to become a #3 or #4 starter. I guess it boils down to philosophy.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Apr 4, 2025 11:11 AM EDT 0 recs
A's didnt allow Cahill to throw knucke curve
during 07 season, which was his best pitch coming out of HS. als he was a part time position player in HS, so he's relatively new to full time pitching
by the way, solid 1st start by DLS/Smith new comers...
6IP 5H 2ER 1BB 6K
Nice debut for DLS.
Also Greg Smith:
6IP 6H 2ER 1BB 4K in a 2-0 lose.
Trevor Cahill, RHP
The 2006 second-round pick is one of the few guys on this list who was actually drafted and signed by the A's organization. Last year's A's Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Cahill showed up to camp with added weight and strength and has looked great this spring.
In his first full season, the A's had Cahill focus on his fastball command and his changeup. He used his heavy sinking fastball effectively in striking out 117 in 105 1/3 innings. Now the A's are letting him work his knuckle-curve back into the mix, which could make him an even more dangerous pitcher. He'll move up one rung and join Anderson in the Stockton rotation.
Henry Rodriguez, RHP
When the A's first got Rodriguez, he was all arm strength and not much else. Sure, he could hit triple digits on the radar gun, but he didn't know where it was going. The pitcher who has made a couple of outings in big-league camp is completely different. Yes, he can still throw hard, but he threw strikes, used all his pitches and even showed an ability to control the running game.
Rodriguez is still a big-stuff guy with a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. He has shown the ability to throw a hard slider and a changeup for strikes as well and has begun to use a split-fingered fastball. There's some debate over whether he's a starter long-term, with some seeing him as a fast-track reliever in the Francisco Rodriguez mold. For now, he'll keep working on all of his pitches as a starter in that loaded Stockton rotation.
Lasting Impression
It's been a common reaction among opponents of the A's Stockton club this spring. Hitters walk by one of the A's coaches and mutter, "Where are you getting these guys?!?"
Those guys are Fautino de los Santos and Henry Rodriguez. The two right-handers, one a homegrown A's player (Rodriguez) and one that came in the Nick Swisher trade, are cut from the same cloth. They've been causing Class A Advanced hitters fits with fastballs that run from 95-99 mph. Rodriguez has a changeup and splitter while de los Santos has a killer slider and change as well.
"They are not one-dimensional," Lieppman said. "But they are running mates. They're really similar with the same equipment."
If those were the only two starters in Stockton, there would be a respite for opponents. But following up those two flame-throwers is Trevor Cahill and his absolutely filthy sinker, as well as lefty Brett Anderson, who came over in the Dan Haren trade. Mexican import Arnold Leon rounds out the rotation, forcing arms like Jason Fernandez and Jared Lansford -- guys who normally would start -- into the bullpen. With 2007 draftee Andrew Carignan closing in on 92-96 mph, it's looking like opponents are going to be muttering all season long.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080327&content;_id=375624&vkey;=news_milb&fext;=.jsp
by AsFan4ever650 on Apr 4, 2025 2:03 PM EDT 0 recs
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