Prospect Retro: Travis Hafner
Prospect Retro: Travis Hafner
Travis Hafner was drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 31st round of the 1996 draft, out of Cowley County Community College in Kansas. He was a draft-and-follow guy and didn't sign until the following spring. Assigned to the Gulf Coast League Rangers, he did OK in his pro debut, hitting .286/.374/.439 with 14 doubles in 55 games. But it was rookie ball, and while his performance was good, it wasn't spectacular. He'd rate as a Grade C prospect at that point, with intriguing power potential but needing to prove he could carry it forward against more advanced pitching.
Hafner moved up to Savannah in the Sally League in 1998, where he hit just .237 in 123 games. He did knock 16 homers and draw 68 walks, but he struck out 139 times in 405 at-bats. He was originally a third baseman, but the Rangers switched him to first base during the year due to lack of range. At this point, his best attributes were power and walk rate, but his strikeout rate was very high and his batting average was low. Grade C.
Savannah was Hafner's destination once again in 1999. He did much better this time, hitting .292/.387/.546, with 28 homers, 30 doubles, 111 RBI, and 67 walks. However, he was repeating the league, and he fanned 151 times in 480 at-bats. His power was well-respected but there was still skepticism among scouts about how much contact he'd make against quality breaking balls and changeups. I gave him a Grade C in the 2000 book, noting that he had potential but that it was unclear if he would do as well at higher levels.
The Rangers promoted Hafner to the Florida State League in 2000, where he hit .346/.447/.580 for Charlotte, with 34 doubles, 22 homers, 109 RBI, 67 walks, and 86 strikeouts. Stunning performance, and note the gigantic drop in his strikeout rate. I raised his grade to C+ in the '01 book, which seems much too low in retrospect. I was concerned that it was his third season in Class A, and at age 23 he wasn't young for a three-peat at that level. Nowadays I would probably have gone up to Grade B given the dramatic drop in his strikeouts.
A wrist injury cost Hafner about 40% of the 2001 season, but he did well for Double-A Tulsa when healthy, hitting .282/.396/.545 with 20 homers in 323 at-bats. He drew 59 walks against 82 strikeouts. I raised him to Grade B-. At this point, the doubts now were about defense, and finding a position as the Rangers had a logjam at his position. I also continued to hear doubts about his ability against higher-level breaking balls and changeups.
Hafner was healthy in 2002 and had a massive season in Triple-A, hitting .342/.463/.559 for Oklahoma with 21 homers, 79 walks, and 76 strikeouts in 401 at-bats. His plate discipline was excellent, and he'd shown that he could make contact against top-level minor league breaking stuff. I was finally convinced, raising his grade to a strong A- and writing that "I'm as positive as positive can be that he will hit, and hit well, in the major leagues." He was traded to the Indians that December (for Einar Diaz and Ryan Drese) to help replace Jim Thome in the Cleveland lineup.
Hafner scuffled a bit in the majors in '03, hitting .254/.327/.485 in 91 games. . .he showed good power but it took him some time to adjust to major league conditions. He broke out big in '04 however, and has been one of the top sluggers in the American League ever since.
His early minor league career was marked by good power production and a high walk rate, but also a very high strikeout rate and doubts from scouts about his ability to adjust at higher levels. Through hard work, he improved his ability to read breaking balls, cutting his strikeout rate despite moving up and hitting against better competition. He hit over .300 in '04 and '05, and will possibly do so again in '06....considering that he hit just .237 against Sally League competition in 1998, I think you have to be very happy with the way he's developed his overall offensive game. His current numbers are very much what you'd expect based on his 2002 MLE at Triple-A Oklahoma, but I think it clear that Hafner has exceeded even what optimists thought possible back in '97 and '98.
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56 comments
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HGH
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 12:36 PM EDT
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anyways
by yacck23 on
Sep 4, 2025 2:10 PM EDT
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HGH
by jte87 on
Sep 4, 2025 3:04 PM EDT
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HGH
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on
Sep 4, 2025 3:11 PM EDT
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why
by realityconquest on
Sep 4, 2025 3:47 PM EDT
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Not Just Size
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:04 PM EDT
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Don't Care
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:32 PM EDT
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LOL
by ScottAZ on
Sep 5, 2025 12:44 AM EDT
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Berg
by I Love Oakland As on
Sep 5, 2025 12:58 AM EDT
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then it'll be...
What a clod!!!
"Dave Berg Looks at Blogging"
by Mean Dean on
Sep 5, 2025 1:38 AM EDT
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hey
by ScottAZ on
Sep 5, 2025 11:53 AM EDT
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subject
Nigel Wilson never played for the big club in the Toronto org. Junior Felix qualifies on the TOR/FLA angle but also played for other teams which I thought you would mention if it were him, besides he has no friends.
by I Love Oakland As on
Sep 5, 2025 2:34 PM EDT
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re
Junior Felix? I heard he was very tight with Sil Campusano.
by ScottAZ on
Sep 5, 2025 5:45 PM EDT
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HGH
HGH, like all hormones, shows considerable variation within humans. HGH varies across populations, within populations, and even within individuals in response to different developmental events and external stimuli. HGH is more difficult to assay than a lot of other hormones and therefore our knowledge of the full range of variation present within and between people is lagging behind that of other performance enhancing drugs (hence the difficulty in devising a test for elevated HGH).
Wild speculation aside, as John notes, while Hafner's current performance is exceptional, it is not out of line with his performance going back to his early minor league days. There haven't been any dramatic spikes in his power or production, simply a fairly steady development in line with the general developmental trend of hitters. Nobody is above suspicion in today's MLB, but In the absence of any evidence aside from how he "looks," I think throwing out lines like; "strongly suggestive of someone who has had high circulating levels of Human Growth Hormone, either due to overproduction by his pituitary gland or from other sources" is unwarranted.
by APV on
Sep 4, 2025 4:37 PM EDT
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Thank You...
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:43 PM EDT
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HGH
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on
Sep 4, 2025 4:13 PM EDT
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Observation
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:35 PM EDT
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BTW.
Not singling you out personally because I don't know your position on Bonds. It's just that if Bonds hat size is an issue, why isn't Hafner's facial features?
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:39 PM EDT
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whoa whoa whoa
by nyybaseball99 on
Sep 4, 2025 4:44 PM EDT
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Link
http://www.acromegaly.org/index.php
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:50 PM EDT
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Ok, so
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on
Sep 4, 2025 4:57 PM EDT
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Bonds
by APV on
Sep 4, 2025 4:48 PM EDT
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Check It Out
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 4:53 PM EDT
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Well,
3 writers & daily updates on a wide range of baseball topics, including prospects.
by TheK on
Sep 4, 2025 4:59 PM EDT
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On the Contrary.....
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 5:30 PM EDT
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Pronk
I've followed him around the time he was in the FSL and he's always been a monster from what i'd read and later saw.
by yacck23 on
Sep 4, 2025 5:30 PM EDT
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please don't tell me...
Please don't tell me that.
by Mean Dean on
Sep 4, 2025 5:20 PM EDT
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Have I Said That?
BTW. That brings up an interesting question. If HGH is a performance enhancing substance, should folks with an intrinsic HGH disorder be allowed to play?
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 5:29 PM EDT
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well, I'm asking you your opinion
Yes or no question: Do you think Bonds has, or has had, "high circulating levels of HGH?"
by Mean Dean on
Sep 4, 2025 6:56 PM EDT
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High Probability
The circumstantial evidence is pretty strong surrounding Bonds, but he's also undergone a lot more scrutiny than most players due to his proximity to the HR record.
IMO, Hafner's facial features are much more strikingly suspcious for an HGH effect than any other ballplayer I can think of including Bonds.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 8:04 PM EDT
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ugh
if there's one thing i hate, it's a freakin Bonds apoloist..
HGH was a legal supplement, available at GNC over the counter.
The Cream and the Clear are illegal drugs which were developed specifically to evade testing methods.
That you would even consider drawing a parallel between the two is absurd, i hope you're not a real doctor, if so you may want to go back and take Eethics again.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on
Sep 5, 2025 11:24 AM EDT
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Correction
http://quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/hgh.html
http://www.hgh-info-buyers-guide.org/?src=google
Wikipedia has some good information too.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 5, 2025 5:30 PM EDT
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Who cares?
In my mind, while steroids and drugs of that ilk do enhance performance, what I think the best benefit is the ability of players to stay health and recover quicker. This means that a player can bounce back from strains and nagging injurys quicker and perform at a normal level. I like baseball, and I like seeing the best players play it. I am against rampant and black market shenanigans, but use that would be supervised by doctors (to treat injuries, etc) and other administration might make sense and might make baseball a better game.
All that being said and now trying to get back to topic, Hafner is an amazing player. As a Twins fan, he scares me more than any other hitter in baseball. And I'm not convinced he does steroids or HGH. Seeing him on TV is a pretty lame diagnosis.
by drjim on
Sep 4, 2025 9:06 PM EDT
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All or Nothing
As for diagnosing Acromegaly, physicians don't just go ordering the confirmatory tests on everybody who walks through the door. You first look for the typical physical features and then confirm your suspicons with laboratory testing. Just look at the acromegaly.org website and then look at Hafner. If you don't think there is enough there to be suspicious, you aren't very good at pattern recognition.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 9:40 PM EDT
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well
by limozeen on
Sep 4, 2025 10:45 PM EDT
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Well, yes....
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 5, 2025 12:09 AM EDT
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An Important Distinction
This is a very important point. Saying that Hafner has facial features that are typical of people with high blood levels of HGH or high response levels to HGH is very very different from saying that he's 'augmenting'. Some people are just like that, and if you combine a smart player who has the other skills of a good hitter, then you're going to get the monsterous power hitter that is Pronk. There's nothing illegitimate about it at all. Babe Ruth was a physical freak, too, as are, really nearly ever great sports player in one way or another.
by NBarnes on
Sep 4, 2025 9:07 PM EDT
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George Muresan
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 4, 2025 9:43 PM EDT
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Intresting but flawed
Hafner became an excellent hitter when he increased his observation of the strike zone.
"His early minor league career was marked by good power production and a high walk rate, but also a very high strikeout rate...he improved his ability to read breaking balls, cutting his strikeout rate"
--Sickles from above
To my knowledge, correct me if I'm wrong, HGH affects power not your ability to read pitches.
Maybe Hafner did take HGH but given his production level throughout his minors you need a lot more evidence than "he's an ugly farm kid" to prove your point.
by world dictator on
Sep 4, 2025 10:43 PM EDT
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Advantage?
HGH is, however, generally considered to be a performance enhancing substance, one that Bonds has been accused of using among other things.
I simply made an observation about Hafner's appearance. Others have taken that as a condemnation when I have actually never said any such thing.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 5, 2025 12:03 AM EDT
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Twit
yes, you have. You have implied it strongly. This isn't a courtroom or the hals of the senate where you can say something without sayign something but actually not have said it. Youve made repeated statements drawing towards one particular conclusion... that you're a twit.
by CrimsonLiederhosen on
Sep 5, 2025 11:28 AM EDT
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Proof
BTW. The facial features of Acromegaly are much more specific than "being an ugly farm kid," a phrase I never used or implied.
by DrBGiantsfan on
Sep 5, 2025 12:07 AM EDT
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re
by ScottAZ on
Sep 5, 2025 12:47 AM EDT
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It's a compliment
by BaseballBrain on
Sep 5, 2025 12:50 PM EDT
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