Community Projection: Jason Heyward

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2026 7:00 PM EDT Comment 66 comments

27 days ago: Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward waits to hit during spring training baseball practice, Friday, Feb. 26, 2010, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Ok, here is one on everyone's mind: Jason Heyward.

Project:

Games
At-bats
Runs
Hits
Doubles
Triples
Homers
Walks
Strikeouts
Steals
Caught Stealing
Batting average (make sure numbers are right)
I will calculate OBP and SLG for you.

Whether he makes the major league roster out of spring training or not will naturally be reflected in the number of at-bats and games you project.

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Read More: community projections, 2010 spring training, Jason Heyward (RF - ATL)

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Games- 133
At-bats- 471
Runs- 84
Hits- 140
Doubles- 28
Triples- 4
Homers- 22
Walks- 57
Strikeouts- 75
Steals- 19
Caught Stealing-4
Batting average- .297

by mj10catchit10 on Mar 22, 2026 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think he'll start on the roster. Therefore

Games- 135
AB- 489
Runs- 80
Hits- 142
Doubles- 34
Triples- 3
Homers- 26
Walks- 60
Strikeouts- 89
Steals- 17
CS- 5
BA- .290

I think he’ll have some growing pains his first year in the major leagues with all the attention he’s been getting.

by packimop on Mar 22, 2026 8:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

those numbers in no way, shape, or form indicate "growing pains"

that’s almost all-star quality right off the bat.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 22, 2026 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed,

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Mar 22, 2026 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although

Growing pains compared to what everything thinks he will. He’ll hit .200 for the first three months and .600 every month after.

by cwhitman412 on Mar 22, 2026 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Growing Pains = top 5 MVP candidate?

those stats equate to .290/.367/.519 which would be a top 5-10 MVP candidate especially if the Braves make a playoff push and the hype machine that has generated behind Heyward.

by two fishsticks on Mar 23, 2026 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the SLG is almost certainly too high

but the overall numbers are nowhere near as ridiculous as you make them out to be. Those numbers wouldn’t even have Heyward cracking the top 20 in OPS last year, let alone make him a top 5-10 MVP candidate.

by nixa37 on Mar 23, 2026 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games 130
At-bats 466
Runs 67
Hits 127
Doubles 26
Triples 4
Homers 15
Walks 54
Strikeouts 83
Steals 14
Caught Stealing 4
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) .273

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 22, 2026 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

i think he’ll make it to the roster on opening day.

Games 144
At-bats 511
Runs 87
Hits 146
Doubles 38
Triples 5
Homers 19
Walks 72
Strikeouts 113
Steals 12
Caught Stealing 6
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) .286

by bk11 on Mar 22, 2026 10:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games 150
At-bats 535
Runs 77
Hits 147
Doubles 33
Triples 3
Homers 18
Walks 57
Strikeouts 95
Steals 11
Caught Stealing 4
Batting average .275
OBP .344
SLG .482

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Mar 22, 2026 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some of these projections are borderline ridiculous.

Look at Justin Upton’s first 496 at bats (spread out over two seasons): .242 AVG 17 HRs

And just his first year (age 20)? .221/.283/.364 in 140 at bats

Even if you assume Heyward is the second coming of Griffey Jr, Jr only hit .264/.329/.420 for a .749 OPS his first year. That should be the high end projection for Heyward.

"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."

by lenscrafters on Mar 22, 2026 11:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

I agree with you for the most part, but Justin’s first 140ab came in his age 19 season (though he did turn 20 very late into the year). So in his first season as a 20 year old he hit .250/.353/.463, which overall is pretty great except for his contact rate (something Heyward has displayed more of in the minors).

Also the Griffey season you listed was his age 19 season, so it’s a bit harder to compare. Less minor league time, etc.

by hybrid on Mar 23, 2026 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I guess.....

A-Rod and Pujols don’t count huh?!?! There are guys who stand out even as rookies you know, I’m not saying Heyward will be the next Pujols or A-Rod but you can’t sit here and say that his HIGH END prediction as a rookie is what Griffey did. Everyone’s entitled to their own prediction that’s why John posted this. Post you own prediction and let that be it.

by Jay212033 on Mar 23, 2026 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When Pujols was that age, he was in A ball

You’re right, though that ARod was in the majors, and hitting exceptionally

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Mar 23, 2026 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we're comparing all-star phenom types...

Miguel Cabrera was 20.2 when he came up, Heyward will be 20.8 if he starts in April. Cabrera hit .268/.325/.468 for a .793 OPS in 350ish PA’s. I don’t see how .749 should be the “high end projection”, though I agree with your overall point lenscrafters.

The first two posters gave Heyward a .513 and .519 SLG% respectively. I wonder if they did the math on that before submitting because that is fairly ridiculous and if that was your point then I agree with you there..

On an unrelated note, I forgot how awesome Ryan Braun’s rookie year was. 1.004 OPS! its not relevant to this conversation because he was 23 but he hasn’t come even close to that in the seasons since then and he’s a consistent top 25 player.

by two fishsticks on Mar 23, 2026 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But...

Griffey was 19 his first year. And while Justin Upton is talented, he doesn’t have the tools that Heyward possesses (nor the skills at the same age).

But I do agree that some of these projections are silly.

I’m thinking more along the lines of (I don’t think the Braves will risk losing a year of being able to control Heyward, thus keeping him in AAA for 40 games):

Games: 122
At-bats: 427
Runs: 75
Hits: 110
Doubles: 35
Triples: 4
Homers: 18
Walks: 60
Strikeouts: 80
Steals: 18
Caught Stealing: 8
Batting average .257
OBP .349

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Mar 23, 2026 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

amusing

“And while Justin Upton is talented, he doesn’t have the tools that Heyward possesses (nor the skills at the same age).”

I think you should be required to put that in your signature.

by mrkupe on Mar 23, 2026 3:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+infinity

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 23, 2026 3:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably right on the tools part

Heyward has the better contact tool and a similar power tool, but Upton has the clear edge in speed and probably defense. So yeah I’d say they are close, but Upton has the edge there. In terms of skills though I could see how you’d give the advantage to Heyward because his approach at the plate is just so much better than Upton’s was at the same age.

by nixa37 on Mar 23, 2026 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

???

Tools Head to Head:
Power = Upton
Ave = Heyward
Speed = Upton
Arm = Upton
Defense = Heyward

Upton 3-2

by ScottAZ on Mar 23, 2026 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you bother to read my post?

Or was the fact that you’re a Dbacks fan I mentioned Heyward and Upton in the same sentence enough? As I clearly said, Upton has the edge in tools, but a good case could be made for Heyward in terms of skills because he has a distinct advantage in plate discipline at the same age. The title of my post was directed at mrkupe, saying he was probably right about the tools, but not necessarily right about the skills.

by nixa37 on Mar 23, 2026 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plate discipline

Upton’s plate discipline was actually quite strong as a teenager. He had (and has) a rather heady approach at the plate, although he is undoubtedly an aggressive hitter. Heyward is probably more patient at the plate, but you can’t just take the numbers and extrapolate from there, especially with such young players. The huge difference that you suggest exists just isn’t there.

Really, this is about Heyward’s 162 ABs in AA where he drew more walks than Ks. If not for that sample, you wouldn’t be making this argument.

by mrkupe on Mar 24, 2026 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plate discipline probably isn't the best word choice

I know that’s the word they used for the seven skills, so its what I used but its not exactly what I was talking about. When I say plate discipline I’m not just talking about the ability to take a walk, but rather a combination of that ability, the ability to recognize pitch type, the ability to choose a specific pitch and look for it. From everything I’ve seen, Heyward is on a completely different level than Upton in this area. This isn’t about taking their numbers and extrapolating as you suggest, but rather taking a serious look at each guy’s game at the plate and seeing how it will translate to the majors. Yeah, Upton walked a lot coming into the league, but he isn’t someone I thought could maintain it without a big uptick in K rate. His skills at that point just didn’t seem to translate to the majors all that well. I don’t see Heyward having the same problem with his BB rate.

Now that I’ve dealt with the serious part of your post, let’s get to the asinine part. First, I’m not attempting to make a real argument, so stop acting like I am. I freely admitted that Upton has better tools and simply said an argument could be made for Heyward on the skills front. I don’t think its a fair argument however because we have the benefit of hindsight with Upton and its rather meaningless to argue about in the first place. Second, of course we aren’t having this discussion without Heyward’s performance in AA. He isn’t the consensus #1 position prospect without the AA tear. Still, it happened, its essentially his most recent performance, its his only meaningful sample size above A ball, it represents about 20% of his milb plate appearances, he posted a 192 wRC+, and he not only had more BBs than Ks, he had over 25% more XBHs than Ks.

Look, I understand why people still doubt Heyward’s AA numbers. It wasn’t a huge sample size, his numbers there were better than they were in A+, etc. It’s a perfectly reasonable opinion to take. I just happen to think you’re missing the forest through the trees and we’re truly witnessing the greatest 20 year old hitting prospect of the past decade.

by nixa37 on Mar 24, 2026 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

stuff

Heyward is not “on a completely different level” than Upton re: plate discipline. At 20 years old, Upton was terrific at making adjustments at the plate. When he got into trouble, it was usually due to being aggressive against breaking balls . . .the guy recognized and crushed even good fastballs without a problem. The only guys I’ve seen better at that age in doing these things are Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols.

Upton had a .816 OPS in the major leagues at age 20, so clearly his skills translated just fine. And there was no hindsight involved here, he was unbelievably good. There is nothing asinine about my post.

You basically just tried to say “yeah, I’m totally going on 160 ABs that represent a 20 percent of a guy’s total statistical sample, and I’m suggesting he’s the best hitting prospect of the last 10 years totally on that basis.” I don’t think I’m putting words in your mouth there, because as you indicated, you don’t even feel that Heyward was necessarily the best prospect of 2010 without that sample.

I don’t doubt Heyward’s AA numbers at all. They’re good numbers and he’s a pretty talented guy.

by mrkupe on Mar 24, 2026 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+ 1 million

Upton just posted a OPS of .900 as a 21 year old. Heyward has to do something before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Upton.

by ScottAZ on Mar 23, 2026 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mean other than being a perfect human being?

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Mar 23, 2026 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought that title was taken and copyrighted by Strasburg

by ScottAZ on Mar 23, 2026 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wieters

how soon we forget who the perfect prospect is. Orange Jesus

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 24, 2026 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Homeruns come in 2nd year

Games 151
At-bats 513
Runs 84
Hits 139
Doubles 38
Triples 4
Homers 16
Walks 61
Strikeouts 74
Steals 14
Caught Stealing 5
Batting average .281

by bravitos5122 on Mar 22, 2026 11:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They sure do

I’ll be surprised if Heyward hits 20 this year.

by WTH31 on Mar 23, 2026 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games 135
At Bats 425
Runs 71
Hits 115
Doubles 25
Triples 3
Homers 15
Walks 44
Strikeouts 80
Steals 15
Caught Stealing 4
Batting Avg .271

by Jersey Joe on Mar 23, 2026 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ROY

Games 148
At-bats 519
Runs 83
Hits 151
Doubles 34
Triples 6
Homers 25
Walks 81
Strikeouts 99
Steals 15
Caught Stealing 4
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) .291

And add 83 RBI’s

by dlpme77 on Mar 23, 2026 1:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if this is the case...

getting him for $4 in my 3 year keeper league is genius.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Mar 23, 2026 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Games 145
At-bats 537
Runs 86
Hits 151
Doubles 35
Triples 2
Homers 19
Walks 62
Strikeouts 84
Steals 9
Caught Stealing 6
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) .281

by matthewmafa on Mar 23, 2026 3:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not bad

Games 135
At-bats 450
Runs 81
Hits 121
Doubles 30
Triples 3
Homers 19
Walks 60
Strikeouts 95
Steals 11
Caught Stealing 5
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) .268

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Mar 23, 2026 7:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Btw

I think these numbers reflect a talented kid responding to the massive hype surrounding him by swinging for the fences, racking up the strikeouts, and tanking his average.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Mar 23, 2026 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-1

Problem for you is, that this is totally opposite from this young mans approach. He has displayed a very mature, disciplined and patient approach in Spring, amid all the hype and does not appear to be the kind who will respond by swinging for the fences. This is a very smart young man and he will approach the game the right way.

by JFP on Mar 23, 2026 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I finally got to see him on TV.

And I’m inclined to agree with your assessment. I was very impressed. He seems to possess an advanced knowledge of the strike zone and has a very compact, powerful swing. It will be difficult to rack up strikeouts with his approach. If I could change my numbers based on having seen him, I’d likely add 8 doubles, take away 3 homers, and reduce strikeouts to 65. I think he’s still going to strikeout a fair amount. But the strikeouts will be of the caught looking variety as he hasn’t faced pitchers who can hit their spots like major leaguers.

The wild card is how he will deal with failure as he hasn’t faced much in his short life. Here, that outstanding makeup and intelligence will play a key role in helping him adapt.

"Never have a motto, that's what I always say" - Me

by padmadfan on Mar 24, 2026 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Games: 126
At-bats: 435
Runs:
Hits: 119
Doubles: 27
Triples: 3
Homers: 18
Walks: 42
Strikeouts: 77
Steals: 8
Caught Stealing: 3
Batting average: .274

by ThomasG on Mar 23, 2026 8:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

Forgot runs. Put me down for 76

by ThomasG on Mar 23, 2026 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games: 150
At-bats: 500
Runs: 75
Hits: 145
Doubles: 31
Triples: 3
Homers: 11
Walks: 91
Strikeouts: 85
Steals: 15
Caught Stealing: 3
Batting average (make sure numbers are right): .290
I will calculate OBP and SLG for you

I think his power won’t come full force for a year or two but this year he will walk like a madman, not strike out much and swipe some bags. I could easily see him hit for a bit more power but I don’t want to count on it and he could score more runs if he gets moved into the second spot in the order later in the year. A .290/.400/.430/.840 11/15 line is right about where I see him going this year.

by bbxxj on Mar 23, 2026 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Games: 120
At-bats: 436
Runs: 81
Hits: 123
Doubles: 25
Triples: 3
Homers: 19
Walks: 51
Strikeouts: 73
Steals: 10
Caught Stealing: 2
Batting average: .282

by jar75 on Mar 23, 2026 9:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes. He is the Chosen One.

Games 155
At-bats 580
Runs 88
Hits 173
Doubles 38
Triples 3
Homers 29
Walks 83
Strikeouts 125
Steals 7
Caught Stealing 3
Batting average (make sure numbers are right) ..298
I will calculate OBP and SLG for you.

by thomasps3 on Mar 23, 2026 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Griffey-esque 1st year

Games- 144
At-bats- 501
Runs- 83
Hits- 141
Doubles- 27
Triples- 3
Homers- 17
Walks- 55
Strikeouts- 90
Steals- 11
Caught Stealing- 4
Batting average- .281

by ScottAZ on Mar 23, 2026 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games- 151
At-bats- 517
Runs- 81
Hits- 153
Doubles- 28
Triples- 2
Homers- 23
Walks- 60
Strikeouts- 81
Steals- 12
Caught Stealing- 3
Batting average- .292

by seabass on Mar 23, 2026 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

almost as good as advertised:

Games- 150
At Bats- 523
Runs-84
Hits- 155
Doubles-30
Triples-1
Homers- 20
Walks- 61
Strikeouts-83
Steals-14
Caught Stealing-5
BA-.296

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 23, 2026 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

most of us with these projections are probably overly optimistic

about Mr. Heyward, but he DOES play in Turner Field…with a fairly decent lineup.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 23, 2026 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Games 151
At-bats 543
Runs 60
Hits 134
Doubles 36
Triples 4
Homers 15
Walks 41
Strikeouts 137
Steals 6
Caught Stealing 4
Batting average .247

by god allah star on Mar 23, 2026 7:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i see what you did here :)

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 23, 2026 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

?

i dot get it..

why such horrible numbers?

by matthewmafa on Mar 23, 2026 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hint: history lesson

by mrkupe on Mar 23, 2026 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by god allah star on Mar 24, 2026 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gordon is a terrible comp

He was a college guy that posted worse AA numbers despite being 2.5 years older going into that season. His 23.3% K rate and .64 BB/K ratio foreshadowed some of the issues he’s had in the majors and he was the #1 ranked prospect as much for his defensive prowess as his offensive potential. Purely in terms of hitting he couldn’t hold Heyward’s jock strap.

by nixa37 on Mar 24, 2026 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lulz

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 24, 2026 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm?

I only count 1 think you listed correctly in that nice little rant of yours. Obviously the point wasn’t for a perfect comp, it’s that some of these projections are “terrible” optimistic.

by hybrid on Mar 24, 2026 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only 1 thing correct huh?

I’m pretty sure Gordon was 2.5 years older, my K rate is correct, my BB/K ratio is correct, and the two did foreshadow the issues he has had at the major league level. Maybe I was wrong about the defensive scouting reports on Gordon, but I feel like most of what I said is true.

As for most of the projections being over optimistic, I’d say all these projections end up skewing towards the optimistic side (probably sampling bias) and these aren’t especially bad outside of the first few being so power oriented. For the most part the average and OBP predictions have seemed pretty fair. I also don’t see how choosing to copy and paste the actual, terribly disappointing stats of a former top prospect who shares little with Heyward in the way of career path helps the situation.

by nixa37 on Mar 24, 2026 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Gordon was 22.2 years of age when he started the ‘06 season, Heyward was 19.8 years of age … so tech 2.4, but I mainly just did that for fun. The K% didn’t take into account his PA’s where BB’s are involved and therefor his plate discipline, tech correct but it really skews stats to only take into account AB’s. Your BB/K was correct, but as mentioned your defensive ability take wasn’t really correct.

Anyways I mainly posted that since you seem to get all upset over something that has a valid point. The fanboyism sometimes just gets a bit out of hand with top prospects, as it did with Gordon. I think Heyward has shown all around more talent at a young age, but in the long run it could still go a few different ways especially in his rookie season.

by hybrid on Mar 24, 2026 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

err

or should that be 2.6 hmm, I’m having a terrible time w/ numbers today. ha

by hybrid on Mar 24, 2026 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a terrible comp?

Wouldn’t you expect the guy with 3 extra years of experience, over twice as many AA ABs as Heyward, and a 1.000 OPS to do better in the major leagues than the guy who’s barely out of his teens?

“and he was the #1 ranked prospect as much for his defensive prowess as his offensive potential”

Okay, this deserves a “what in the world are you talking about?” Nobody thought Gordon’s defense was anything special . . .there were some people who thought he might have to move to first base as a pro, and he did shift there while playing on Team USA (in deference to Ryan ZImmerman), but generally the consensus was that he could stick at third. Gordon did improve defensively somewhat during his AA season, but his glove was never going to be more than maybe very slightly above-average under the rosiest of expectations. As it turns out, Gordon has been pretty bad with the glove.

by mrkupe on Mar 24, 2026 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be honest, I was just getting into prospecting when Gordon was coming up

But I was always under the impression that he was viewed as an above average 3B coming into the league. I guess I was mistaken on that. I saw a guy with positive defensive value and very good, if not elite offensive potential, which is why I thought so highly of him. I certainly didn’t think nearly as highly of his bat as I do of Heyward’s. I’m also not sure why you think Gordon has been so bad defensively either, he has a positive career UZR at 3B with a very good RngR and I haven’t heard real negative scouting reports.

As for the expectations, I’m expecting more from Heyward. The fact that Gordon was 2.5 years older means very little to me as I assume that’s what you mean by 3 more years experience (FYI at best its 2 as Gordon had 3 years in college and 1 in the pros compared to 2+ pro years for Heyward). I don’t see why you think Gordon’s college experience is all that relevant as he faced few pro quality pitchers and did so with an aluminum bat. Heyward has far more experience in the professional game coming into his rookie season, in spite of the fact he is younger in age.

When it comes to minor league performance, Heyward clearly showed skills that would better translate to the major league game. Heyward walked at similar rates, struck out at a far, far lower rate, and showed similar power at a much younger age. Unlike Gordon who showed a proclivity to strike out in AA, Heyward showed no holes in his offensive game. Its not just the minor league performance either. What Heyward has done the past few spring trainings against AAA and ML caliber pitching has been truly amazing. He had little no trouble holding his own as a 19 year old last year and he’s been tearing it up this year. He has shown no trouble adjusting to higher level pitching. If anything, it seems to be making him better.

by nixa37 on Mar 24, 2026 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

long, but worth it

He was better than, say, Pedro Alvarez defensively. But he’ll never be confused for a Gold Glove.

Gordon: 3 in college, AFL, one full season at AA, so I’d say 4 seasons. Heyward: short-season, full season of A ball, 96 games between A+ and AA. So yeah, my bad, it’s a two season gap in experience.

“I don’t see why you think Gordon’s college experience is all that relevant as he faced few pro quality pitchers and did so with an aluminum bat.”

Gordon faced a lot of pro caliber pitchers while in college. He played in a major baseball conference and had plenty of postseason experience against some of the best teams in the country. Nobody cares about what kind of bat he was using, as he was still the best hitter in college baseball two years in a row.

It’s really confusing to me that you think that Gordon’s college experience is “not relevant”. He played 193 games and accumulated 680 ABs in college over 3 seasons, which is a really large sample size for you to be completely wiping off the board. It’s even more confusing when you have (by your own admission) put a huge amount of stock into Jason Heyward’s 47 game, 162 AB stint in AA. Your excuse that the fact that Gordon was swinging a metal bat is meaningless - while some players certainly don’t fare as well with wood bats, Gordon’s long track record of success, his strong scouting reports, and (wait for it) his 485 ABs in AA with a wood bat, where he was clearly the best player in the league should probably make you realize that he’s a pretty decent hitter, even if you make him swing a Nerf bat.

The craziest thing? Gordon had over TWICE as many AA ABs as Heyward going into their first major league seasons (I feel confident that Heyward will start the year with the major league team now).

I figured I’d go into line-by-line detail on your last paragraph.

“When it comes to minor league performance, Heyward clearly showed skills that would better translate to the major league game.”

Clearly better than the skills shown by a guy who had a 1.000+ OPS in his first professional season? Really?

“Heyward walked at similar rates, struck out at a far, far lower rate, and showed similar power at a much younger age.”

Translation: “Don’t you know how to read statistics, mrkupe? Don’t you know how to count? Don’t you know that you can find these numbers on the Baseball Cube???”

Heyward struck out less, that’s about all I care about here. The number of walks are nice to see but Gordon walked plenty as well (and did so while having to adjust to AA-level competition specifically and the pro game in general at the same time). Gordon had plenty of power and it projected to stick at the major league level, 70-75 power. The age thing doesn’t matter to me much, Heyward’s youth being balanced by the aggressiveness of putting Gordon in AA to start his pro career.

“Unlike Gordon who showed a proclivity to strike out in AA, Heyward showed no holes in his offensive game. "

More “why can’t you learn how to count already, mrkupe?” Bonus points for the choice to use “proclivity”, which was obviously intentioned to make me feel bad for being the one poster on Minor League Ball who still has to hunt for his food using a spear.

“Its not just the minor league performance either.”

So I’m allowed to use Gordon’s ridiculous college numbers in this argument now? Or the fact that he was the best hitter in college baseball two years in a row? Or the fact that he ranked No. 13 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list BEFORE his AA season? Cool with me.

“What Heyward has done the past few spring trainings against AAA and ML caliber pitching has been truly amazing.”

A little subjective, but as long as you don’t do it too much . . .

“He had little no trouble holding his own as a 19 year old last year and he’s been tearing it up this year.”

Okay, you can cool it now with the personal opinion/hype now, let’s just move on . . .

“He has shown no trouble adjusting to higher level pitching. If anything, it seems to be making him better.”

Uh huh. Thank goodness you stopped before you resorted to “Heyward is better at walking on water” or something.

by mrkupe on Mar 24, 2026 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Games 122
At-bats 468
Runs 58
Hits 131
Doubles 27
Triples 6
Homers 13
Walks 28
Strikeouts 39
Steals 2
Caught Stealing 2
Batting average .280

by hybrid on Mar 24, 2026 1:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

28 walks to 39 strikeouts?

in 468 at bats?

whaaat? juan pierre cant even pull that off

by matthewmafa on Mar 24, 2026 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

yes pierre can and it’s just as realistic as someone saying 91bb/85k … lastly your missing the point again :o)

by hybrid on Mar 24, 2026 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heyward

Games 131
At-bats 445
Runs 53
Hits 117
Doubles 32
Triples 2
Homers 18
Walks 46
Strikeouts 106
Steals 7
Caught Stealing 3
Batting average .263

Opus rules

by outlander on Mar 24, 2026 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll go bullish

Games 140
At-bats 501
Runs 82
Hits 145
Doubles 30
Triples 3
Homers 26
Walks 58
Strikeouts 88
Steals 12
Caught Stealing 5
Batting average .289

by BobbyS on Mar 24, 2026 10:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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