Community Projection Results: David Price

We had 16 entries. The results:

29 games, 29 starts, 1 complete game, 183 innings, 87 runs, 81 earned runs, 3.96 ERA, 164/68 K/BB ratio, 173 hits allowed, 19 homers given up, 12-9 record. 

Comparison to other projection systems:

Community Projection:     3.96 ERA,  183 innings, 8.07 K/9,  3.34  BB/9,  8.51 H/9.
Bill James Projection:        4.30 ERA, 180 innings, 7.85 K/9, 3.90 BB/9,  8.30 H/9. 
CHONE Projection:           4.61 ERA, 123 innings, 7.32 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 8.93 H/9.
Marcel Projection:             4.13 ERA, 122 innings,  7.23 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 8.41 H/9
Fangraphs Fan Proj:          3.89 ERA, 171 innings,  7.95 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 9.74 H/9
ZIPS Projection:                4.63 ERA, 146 innings,  6.98 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 8.82 H/9

As you can see, our Community Projection is the more optimistic than the formulaic projections. Only the Fangraphs Fan project (their version of a community projection) has a better ERA, but with weaker K/IP and H/IP numbers.

So who is right? I think the community projection is a bit optimistic and I'm thinking personally at something closer to the Marcel numbers, although in about 180 innings.