Community Projection Results: David Price

by John Sickels on Mar 22, 2010 1:53 PM EDT

We had 16 entries. The results:

29 games, 29 starts, 1 complete game, 183 innings, 87 runs, 81 earned runs, 3.96 ERA, 164/68 K/BB ratio, 173 hits allowed, 19 homers given up, 12-9 record.

Comparison to other projection systems:

Community Projection:     3.96 ERA, 183 innings, 8.07 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, 8.51 H/9.
Bill James Projection:        4.30 ERA, 180 innings, 7.85 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 8.30 H/9.
CHONE Projection:           4.61 ERA, 123 innings, 7.32 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, 8.93 H/9.
Marcel Projection:             4.13 ERA, 122 innings, 7.23 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 8.41 H/9
Fangraphs Fan Proj:          3.89 ERA, 171 innings, 7.95 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, 9.74 H/9
ZIPS Projection:                4.63 ERA, 146 innings, 6.98 K/9, 4.08 BB/9, 8.82 H/9

As you can see, our Community Projection is the more optimistic than the formulaic projections. Only the Fangraphs Fan project (their version of a community projection) has a better ERA, but with weaker K/IP and H/IP numbers.

So who is right? I think the community projection is a bit optimistic and I'm thinking personally at something closer to the Marcel numbers, although in about 180 innings.

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Comments

Well I for one think our community results

Are a tad generous

judging by how he’s performed thus far in Spring Training

Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 22, 2010 4:55 PM EDT reply actions

Why are you going off ST stats to judge him? I think it’s a tad generous as far as the SO rate goes, but otherwise it really falls in line with how he was pitching in the 2nd half of the year.

by hybrid on Mar 22, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Price vs. Anderson

John, or whoever else interested,

between Brett Anderson and David Price, both short and long-term, who would you take? One year ago, almost everyone would have said Price. But I’m curious to see the responses now.

by tas7b on Mar 23, 2010 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

community projections

well, we wouldn’t be baseball fans if we weren’t a bit optimistic ….

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Mar 23, 2010 3:04 PM EDT reply actions

i didn't contribute to them

but i think our projections are definitely generous. when i scrolled and saw the title of the post, i immediately went to what i could see on ERA which was in the 4.50 range. the other numbers just seem to follow suit. i don’t see over 8 k/inn yet or maybe ever. i think the CHONE numbers are probably closest to what i’d expect. still not bad at all. just a tough division and still a lot to learn for the guy.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Mar 23, 2010 5:52 PM EDT reply actions