Minor League Notes, April 10, 2012
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 12:20 PM EDT
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Minor League Notes, April 10, 2026
**Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander and 2011 first-round pick Gerrit Cole made his professional regular-season debut last night for the High-A Bradenton Marauders, pitching four innings against Palm Beach. He walked one, gave up four hits and one run, while fanning seven. He gave up three doubles, but worked himself out of trouble for the most part. Reports indicate his fastball hit 96-97 MPH, showed a lot of life low in the zone, and that both his slider and changeup were effective. Five of his 12 outs were on grounders; the other seven were strikeouts. So far, so good.
**The other big debut last night was Seattle Mariners right-hander Taijuan Walker, taking the mound for the Double-A Jackson Generals. He was effective: five innings, four hits, two runs, one walk, with eight strikeouts against the Birmingham Barons. His outing was more fly ball-oriented than Cole's: Walker got two outs on grounders and four on fly balls to go with the whiffs. Walker is two years younger than Cole but pitching at a higher level; the Mariners wanted to keep him out of High Desert, while the Pirates are being conservative with Cole.
**Another good start from a top prospect: Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Tyler Skaggs looked very good last night for Double-A Mobile, throwing six strong innings against Mississippi, giving up one run on five hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts. Reports indicate that he had all three pitches (fastball, curveball, changeup) working well last night and he obviously had no problems with his command.
**One of the big questionmarks for 2012 is Minnesota Twins prospect Alex Wimmers. The 2009 first-rounder fell apart last spring with Steve Blass-like control problems, but righted the ship at the end of the season. He made his 2012 debut yesterday for Double-A New Britain, with mixed results: 4.1 innings, six hits, two runs, two walks, and three strikeouts. Here is an interesting and fairly optimistic in-person report from someone who saw the game.
**Philadelphia Phillies lefty Austin Wright is one of my sleeper prospects for 2012. He got off to promising start last night at High-A Clearwater in the Florida State League, going five innings. He gave up five hits and three runs (two earned) on two walks, but he also fanned seven. He has a low-90s fastball and a solid breaking ball.
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Eddie Rosario
While he’s doing a great job at the plate through his first four games, are there growing concerns over his 2B transition? He’s already made 2 errors, and DH’d last nights game. How long does the experiment last?
by Kerry's Kids on Apr 10, 2026 12:25 PM EDT reply actions
It’s early. Give him time. I’m curious what kind of errors he’s making. That will be a clue.
Personally I think he still has a lot of value in the OF if he can’t make it at 2B.
by rlwhite on Apr 10, 2026 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You have to give him at least 1 whole season unless he just can’t function at all in the new position.
My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Apr 10, 2026 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
rosario
Oh, way too soon to conclude anything about his glove. Let’s see how he looks in August.
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Cole
Bradenton’s pitching coach is conflicting your words a little bit, John. He seems to indicate that Cole sat in the 94-97 range, while reaching 100 mph on multiple occasions.
Jim Shonerd @jimshonerdBA Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Just talked to Bradenton pitching coach Mike Steele — said Gerrit Cole touched 100 mph twice last night, pitched at 94-97. #Pirates
by Woo! on Apr 10, 2026 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
Either way, still impressive
But it may have been even more impressive if Steele is adamant in his words.
by Woo! on Apr 10, 2026 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
report I had said consistently mid-90s topping at 98.
different guns can give different readings. I usually opt for the more conservative report unless I see it myself.
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
either way, Cole looked really good and the strikeouts/grounders combination is what we want to see
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Not trying to pick a fight or anything
Just wanted to augment what you were saying with a first-hand account
by Woo! on Apr 10, 2026 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I know. I had a firsthand account too. Interesting that they aren't quite the same. I would assume that Steele would have the best data given a chart with every pitch, which my source probably didn't have
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Just curious - not trying to make an argument when there isn't one -
but would that 2 mph difference really matter that much? It seems to me that “we” (I’m guilty of it too) care a lot, maybe too much, about 100 mph because it’s that nice rounded number.
Reminds me of a book I read that did research on how coveted hitting .300 is, especially in terms of dollars. Players get paid way more if they’ve hit .300 compared to .299 despite the negligible difference. It’s so extreme that in the history of baseball, no player hitting .299 going into the last game of a season has drawn a walk.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 10, 2026 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
To me, I’d focus a lot more on the movement he had on the FB and how deep into the game he was able to maintain a velocity over 94 mph. Once you hit 95-96 mph as a starter I don’t think that you gain that much from reaching back for an extra 3-4 mph. A 94-95 mph FB with late movement is a lot harder to hit than a straight 99 mph FB - and are there any starting pitchers around that are going to be able to throw high 90s in the majority of their starts AND be able to work past the 5th inning?
My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Apr 10, 2026 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Aroldis Chapman
comes to mind because all spring he was working around the low to mid-90’s in preparation for the rotation and I read a quote of his saying (basically what we all know) that he would rather sit in the mid 90’s with control than 103 with no clue where the ball is going…
if you could just combine Champan’s velocity with Milone’s control you could rule the baseball world…
"On [umpire] Jeff Kellogg taking a foul tip to the groin: ‘Two balls, one strike.’"
by James Westfall on Apr 10, 2026 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Having seen Chapman a few times close-up, in person on Rehab assignments to AA, I’m glad to read that. My old phone had a picture with the stadium board showing 104. That pitch was ~2 feet behind the hitter. When he worked in the low to mid-90’s he was much, much better.
by Cormican on Apr 11, 2025 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a difference but not much of one
If I did my math right (which I probably didn’t) a 100 mph fastball crosses home plate roughly .008 seconds quicker than a 98 mph fastball (which is roughly 2% faster). This assumes that the ball has to travel 60’6" which isn’t really accurate because of the pitcher’s stride but I didn’t wanna worry about that. This means that the difference is about the same as an average camera’s shutter speed.
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 10, 2026 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t feel like doing the math, but if a hitter starts his swing at the same time for a 96 mph and for a 100 mph fastball, how often does the 100mph end up fouled off? (This is specifically to the idea that reaching back for the occasional extra heat isn’t beneficial. Any straight fastball delivered at the same speed each time will be hittable.)
by Cormican on Apr 11, 2025 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
cole and walker
= two highest ceiling prospect pitchers in minors, though bundy is right there too.
by St.Steve on Apr 10, 2026 1:39 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not convinced Cole
even has the highst ceiling in his own organization. Many believe that Luis Heredia’s ceiling is higher than Cole’s or Taillon’s but he is much farther away…
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 10, 2026 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
No what?
Heredia is 6’7" his fastball tops out at 98, he has a very good feel for his secondary pitches and if he weren’t already in the Pirates’ organization, he’d be a high school junior right now. He has unlimited potential.
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 10, 2026 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll agree with Heredia having more potential than Taillon
Hard to say more than Cole cause Cole has premium stuff and is still plenty young enough to gain the command he needs to harness it. Cole’s ceiling certainly isn’t significantly higher than Heredia’s ceiling, I’ll agree with that.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 10, 2026 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
Cole’s ceiling is the best pitcher in MLB. I don’t think you’ll find anyone who thinks Heredia has a realistic chance to be that. Maybe a Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber chance.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 10, 2026 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think there's no question
that Heredia is past where Cole was at the same age. No one would have labeled Cole with such a label - “best pitcher in MLB” - at age 17. Hence, it would stand to reason that Heredia has a higher ceiling.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Cole was very highly regarded coming out of HS
He also was an impossible sign, causing him to drop. Had he been willing to sign, he would have been a top ten pick in 2008.
by cookiedabookie on Apr 11, 2025 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Had he ceiling been "best pitcher in MLB"
He would have been the runaway #1 pick
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Not coming out of high school..
Look, I think you’ll admit that Cole, while an excellent prospect coming out of high school, was not “ahead” or Heredia at a similar age, especially in regards to ceiling. Thus, I’m not sure how you can then look at Cole essentially fulfilling his potential in college - that’s what he did right? no one was surprised to see Cole become what he became; this wasn’t Matt Moore going from a $115,000 8th round pick with a #3 ceiling to the best pitching prospect in all of baseball - and say Heredia can’t do the same thing over the next 3-4 years and have a ceiling equal to or greater than Cole.
The difference is, Cole is a far superior prospect because he doesn’t have to “survive” the next 4 years of development from age 17-21 - he already did that - and “survive” the GCL, SS, A ball, A+ ball, etc. “Survive” in terms of both injury and simply flaming out.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was at a similar point as Heredia at a similar age - he was 17 when first drafted
Big fastballs, needed more polish on secondaries and command. And as you say, the fact that he survived and succeeded college ball puts him way ahead of Heredia at this point.
by cookiedabookie on Apr 11, 2025 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Puts him ahead
in overall prospectness. How does it put Cole ahead in ceiling though?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
This
was pretty much my point from the start…
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 11, 2025 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
YES
Cole has the highest ceiling of any pitcher currently in the minors. There are maybe 3-4 players than can be argued as co-highest ceiling pitchers. I do not believe anyone would put Heredia in this camp. Cole has RAISED his ceiling over time. Heredia very well might raise his ceiling by the time he is 20 or 21. But when people say ceiling, it isn’t purely their unknown potential…if that was true, most male babies would have a higher ceiling than pedro martinez.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
But when people say ceiling, it isn’t purely their unknown potential…if that was true, most male babies would have a higher ceiling than pedro martinez.
Read below, but Heredia is so far ahead of a random baby in becoming Pedro Martinez it’s not even funny. He’s a 17 year old with great feel for two secondaries that could rate 65 or 70 one day and he’s the owner of a 98mph fastball he can command half decently due to impressive mechanics for someone who’ 6’7 already
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I know he's got a WAYYY higher ceiling than a baby
That is my point.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
i think it really all depends on whose baby we are talking about...
this convo made me laugh.
"On [umpire] Jeff Kellogg taking a foul tip to the groin: ‘Two balls, one strike.’"
by James Westfall on Apr 11, 2025 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If Randy
Johnson and Pedro Martinez had a baby…
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
and...
if greg maddux and nolan ryan had a baby…and by chance baby johnson-martinez met baby maddux-ryan and they had a baby….that baby would be Gerrit Cole!!!!!
"On [umpire] Jeff Kellogg taking a foul tip to the groin: ‘Two balls, one strike.’"
by James Westfall on Apr 11, 2025 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, who had a higher ceiling at age 17?
Sure, maybe. That is a very different argument. We don’t say all babies have a ceiling of a peak better than Pedro Martinez. I’m not saying Heredia doesn’t have a really high ceiling, but saying many think his is higher than Cole’s is either made up completely, or a serious indictment on those many people. Could Heredia end up better? Yes. But there is no way his realistic ceiling is higher than Cole’s right now, or even as high.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Could Heredia end up better? Yes. But there is no way his realistic ceiling is higher than Cole’s right now, or even as high.
So were back to the “ceiling doesn’t really mean his absolute best outcome, but his absolute realistic outcome” Fine, I buy that, otherwise my ceiling is the greatest athlete in every sport ever if I just grow and become incredibly athletic/fast/talented, etc.
That’s not my point. We’re not talking about some 17 year old kid who looks like he’ll be a pick in the top 10 rounds on talent (talking old CBA instead of new CBA, not sure exactly how that’ll work in the new CBA). We’re not even talking about a guy who looks like a fringe 1st round pick. In Luis Heredia, we’re talking about the guy who would absolutely be one of the front runners to be the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, and at the very least a top 10 pick and the first prep pitcher off the board. Heredia is the equivalent of Bundy, Taillon, or Giolito in that regard.
No one would have a problem saying that Bundy, Taillon, or Giolito’s ceilings compare favorably to Cole because they do, in fact, compare favorably. Now, granted, Heredia isn’t on the same prospect level as those three pitchers, but that’s because he’s not nearly as polished and that’s because he’s younger. Again though, a 17 year-old pitcher (quoting part of Baseball America’s scouting report)
[who’s] curveball can be a swing-and-miss pitch but lacks consistency, and [who’s] changeup also shows flashes of becoming a plus offering. For such a young, tall pitcher, he repeats his mechanics on a surprisingly consistent basis.
would be a frontrunner for the top pick in the 2013 draft, especially if he’s also 6’7 and throwing 98 mph heat.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha
I didn’t check back on this thread for a couple of days and you have essentially been fighting my battle for me…and doing a good job FWIW.
@auclairkeithbc
If you want to say that Cole is more likely to reach his ceiling I’m fine with that. If you want to say that he is substantially more likely to reach his ceiling I’m fine with that too. However, that was not the original question. All I said was that Heredia’s ceiling could be higher. As a high school junior (or at least he would be) with his massive, workhorse frame, his big arm and his good secondaries, he would absolutely be up for pick 1-1 in 2013.
This isn’t the same as just saying that any baby could be Pedro Martinez, this is taking a guy who is already playing pro ball and has a ton of ability and saying that if he “survives” the next four years (obviously a big if, but the dangers of injury/development really don’t play into a guy’s ceiling) he could/would/should be a big league ace. Since you seem to agree that Heredia has a really high ceiling what about his abilities prevent him from having a ceiling that is higher than Cole’s? Again, I’m not disagreeing that he has farther to go than Cole but that’s not the point. It never was.
Anyway, as a Pirates fan, I’m hoping that Cole, Heredia and Taillon become Verlander, King Felix and Beckett and then we can have a lot of fun and debate which one is the best…
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 11, 2025 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Your view on ceiling is backwards. You don’t start at age 17 then hope your ceiling doesn’t diminish over time. You hope your ceiling INCREASES, as it did with Cole, and as it very well might with Heredia. This is true of babies, of good jr. high pitchers, and of 17 year olds.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Man you really
can be a jackass sometimes. I guess you won’t agree to disagree with definitions of ceiling. I also missed when you were crowned authoritarian on all things baseball.
Your view on ceiling is backwards. Common sense would dictate you raise your floor in most every circumstance. Matt Moore, who I mentioned in another post, is the rare exception who literally raised his ceiling. Going into the draft as a high schooler, Cole was seen as having an immense ceiling. When he didn’t sign, he was viewed as having 1-1 potential when he came out of college. He didn’t raise shit. He merely fulfilled his potential, which raised his floor. He made it through college, eliminating the chance of busting or becoming an afterthought in college.
Heredia is the type of guy who would be in a 1-1 discussion in the 2013 draft. That would be as a prep starter. That would make his floor immensely low and his chance of reaching his incredibly ceiling, also immensely low. You seem to be equating ceiling with a chance of reaching his ceiling. Now granted, you can get to the point where that chance is so negligible that why even put that ceiling on a player. That is the whole Pedro Martinez-baby argument. Yes the baby could become as good as Pedro, but it’s a .00000000000001% chance. Heredia’s chance of becoming the best pitcher in baseball is significantly higher (by significant, I mean the actual definition of the word; if Heredia’s chance is .001%, that’s a huge change percentage wise) than that of a random baby. I’m really confident that his ceiling is that high and his chance of reaching it is enough of a non-negligible amount that it bears considering and comparing him to Cole.
Your confusing ceiling and a chance to reach a ceiling. Yes, you can divide those two and that’s what I’m doing here. I assumed anyone with an IQ greater than a rock could do the same, so don’t give me some bullcrap Occam’s razor type of reponse.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
i am NOT talking about chance of reaching ceiling
i am talking about ceiling. someone says heredia’s is higher than cole’s. cole’s is the highest in baseball. so…
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
cole’s is the highest in baseball. so…
I missed where that was fact…
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
sigh
none of these arguments are facts. you can say heredia has a pretty high ceiling, and even though i agree with that, it isn’t a fact. or you could say heredia has a higher ceiling than kyle mcpherson, but that isn’t a fact either. all this stuff is opinion. you didn’t start it, but in my opinion saying heredia has the highest ceiling in all of baseball (or a higher ceiling that Cole, assuming you don’t hate Cole), is deserves a flat “no” in my opinion.
by auclairkeithbc on Apr 11, 2025 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay I think
it’s a flat yes. So there.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 11, 2025 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
to provide a third perspective
imagine that there are five possible percentile outcomes for a pitching prospect
Top 5 Percentile Outcome
Top 15 Percentile Outcome
Top 25 Percentile Outcome
Top 50 Percentile Outcome
Top 100 Percentile Outcome
to me, when people compare ceilings among prospects, what they are really trying to say is that the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect A is higher than the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect B.
regardless of which “top percentile outcome” you use when measuring ceiling, the key to me is that in a discussion of ceiling/floor and who has a higher ceiling/higher floor is that you are essentially holding the percentile variable constant across a set of prospects and comparing outcomes
at one extreme is the Pedro Martinez-baby argument. but you don’t have to go to that extreme, that only the Top 0.00000000000001% Percentile Outcome for a random baby ends up as Pedro Martinez, to recognize that Cole has a higher ceiling than Heredia.
i think we can all agree that Cole’s Top 5 Percentile Outcome is higher than Heredia’s. i’d even venture to say that Cole’s Top 1 Percentile Outcome is probably higher than Heredia’s. trying to go even higher than that seems largely meaningless in the context of baseball, though i could be wrong about that.
also, more importantly, i’m not sure why there was even discussion of comparing Cole’s HS stock v. Heredia’s current stock. Cole’s HS stock doesn’t really matter. it’s sunk. what we are trying to compare is Cole’s current upside v. Heredia’s current upside right?
by blue bulldog on Apr 11, 2025 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
to provide a third perspective
imagine that there are five possible percentile outcomes for a pitching prospect
Top 5 Percentile Outcome
Top 15 Percentile Outcome
Top 25 Percentile Outcome
Top 50 Percentile Outcome
Top 100 Percentile Outcome
to me, when people compare ceilings among prospects, what they are really trying to say is that the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect A is higher than the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect B.
regardless of which “top percentile outcome” you use when measuring ceiling, the key to me is that in a discussion of ceiling/floor and who has a higher ceiling/higher floor is that you are essentially holding the percentile variable constant across a set of prospects and comparing outcomes
at one extreme is the Pedro Martinez-baby argument. but you don’t have to go to that extreme, that only the Top 0.00000000000001% Percentile Outcome for a random baby ends up as Pedro Martinez, to recognize that Cole has a higher ceiling than Heredia.
i think we can all agree that Cole’s Top 5 Percentile Outcome is higher than Heredia’s. i’d even venture to say that Cole’s Top 1 Percentile Outcome is probably higher than Heredia’s. trying to go even higher than that seems largely meaningless in the context of baseball, though i could be wrong about that.
also, more importantly, i’m not sure why there was even discussion of comparing Cole’s HS stock v. Heredia’s current stock. Cole’s HS stock doesn’t really matter. it’s sunk. what we are trying to compare is Cole’s current upside v. Heredia’s current upside right?
by blue bulldog on Apr 11, 2025 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
to provide a third perspective
imagine that there are five possible percentile outcomes for a pitching prospect
Top 5 Percentile Outcome
Top 15 Percentile Outcome
Top 25 Percentile Outcome
Top 50 Percentile Outcome
Top 100 Percentile Outcome
to me, when people compare ceilings among prospects, what they are really trying to say is that the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect A is higher than the Top 5 Percentile Outcome of Prospect B.
regardless of which “top percentile outcome” you use when measuring ceiling, the key to me is that in a discussion of ceiling/floor and who has a higher ceiling/higher floor is that you are essentially holding the percentile variable constant across a set of prospects and comparing outcomes
at one extreme is the Pedro Martinez-baby argument. but you don’t have to go to that extreme, that only the Top 0.00000000000001% Percentile Outcome for a random baby ends up as Pedro Martinez, to recognize that Cole has a higher ceiling than Heredia.
i think we can all agree that Cole’s Top 5 Percentile Outcome is higher than Heredia’s. i’d even venture to say that Cole’s Top 1 Percentile Outcome is probably higher than Heredia’s. trying to go even higher than that seems largely meaningless in the context of baseball, though i could be wrong about that.
also, more importantly, i’m not sure why there was even discussion of comparing Cole’s HS stock v. Heredia’s current stock. Cole’s HS stock doesn’t really matter. it’s sunk. what we are trying to compare is Cole’s current upside v. Heredia’s current upside right?
by blue bulldog on Apr 11, 2025 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
also, more importantly, i’m not sure why there was even discussion of comparing Cole’s HS stock v. Heredia’s current stock. Cole’s HS stock doesn’t really matter. it’s sunk. what we are trying to compare is Cole’s current upside v. Heredia’s current upside right?
Right, but I think the Cole’s HS stock is relevant because of the way I define “ceiling.” Cole was not Matt Moore. Matt Moore was the “rare” exception of a guy who had solid upside coming out of the draft but really exploded far past any potential-defining label placed upon him.
Cole was a great HS prospect who went to College. Upon foregoing signing with the Yankees, Cole immediately became a front runner to be a top 5 pick in 2012, or even a 1-1 guy, similar for example to Karsten Whiston, a top prep pitcher in 2010 who did not sign with San Diego and is now BA’s top college sophomore, making him a highly possible candidate to be a top 5 draft pick on 2013 or even a 1-1 candidate. I use Whiston to illustrate a point that Cole did not raise his potential. He merely continued down the path expected of someone with his talents. Instead he raised his floor by avoiding the pitfalls or injury and flaming out. To emphasis my Matt Moore example again, I think Moore is the rarity in that regards - being able to raise his ceiling significantly. Since I don’t think Cole ever raised his ceiling - he merely maintained it and made himself a better prospect by solidifying/raising his floor - naturally his ceiling is unchanged from HS to College. Thus, if Heredia has a higher ceiling than Cole when comparing them at the “similar” stage of being 17/18, which I believe he does, or least they are equal enough to call them equal, then it would logically follow that Heredia, if he’s able to “raise” his floor, will continue to have a higher ceiling than Cole. The reason Heredia isn’t nearly the prospect Cole is yet, is he hasn’t avoided the pitfalls that will destroy his floor.
Putting it another way, I think if Heredia merely continues to avoid injury and develop in a natural, non-crazy ceiling perforating manner (which is what Moore did in a sense) - no small feat - then I think Heredia would make a better 1-1 in 20whatever (had he been a American HS kid) than what Cole did in 2012.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 12, 2025 2:44 AM EDT up reply actions
And another thing
I have a “problem” with is this.
Top 5 Percentile Outcome
Top 15 Percentile Outcome
Top 25 Percentile Outcome
Top 50 Percentile Outcome
Top 100 Percentile Outcome
That’s not pure ceiling. That’s saying what’s the minimum of what will happen 5 out of 100 times in a positive direction, or 15/100 etc. That’s adding a chance of reaching a ceiling element. I want pure ceiling. I understand that you can’t go absolutely pure pure ceiling because of the Pedro/Baby argument, but you can push it much further than 5% and I’d say even further than 1%. Even if you don’t want to go further than 1%, I’m taking Heredia’s 1% over Cole’s and I’m again not thinking twice.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 12, 2025 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
And to back this up a bit more
on why I think it’s necessary to go to extremes on ceilings, I bet if you strictly adhered to say a 25% outcome minimum, a guy like Heredia might not even be on a top 20 list, not to mention the top 6. No 16 year old probably ever would be. Even if you can argue he would be still, Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman certainly aren’t on a Rangers top 20.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 12, 2025 2:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's a simple way to solve this.
If someone came up to you today and said, “As of April 11, 2012, who has a higher ceiling: Cole or Heredia?”
99.9% out of 100 people would pick Cole. Now, that doesn’t mean that Heredia cannot make massive steps forward as Cole already has and eventually have an equal or higher ceiling, but at this point, he’s not quite there yet.
by bdlugz on Apr 11, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't need to take massive steps forward
becuase Cole didn’t take any massive steps forward and Heredia is, in my estimation, ahead of where Cole was at a similar age.
I guess I’m just an idiot, but I just think it’s weird that the two people here saying that are diehard, intelligent (I’m speaking for KP here more than myself), fairly objective, Pirates fans who follow their damn team passionately. I’d say we are maybe Homerism-ing it up, but then we’d just be knocking Cole.
I honestly don’t get it. Again, to use actual words Mr. Sickels used, he would grade Heredia as an A on upside (“You can make a case for a Grade A if you look only at projection and potential”). The list of “A” grade pitchers this year: Moore, Darvish, Miller, Bauer, Cole. That’s it. I bet if you add on guys who also have A upside, cause admittedly that’s not just Heredia, you’d probably add Bundy, Walker, and maybe Bradley and Taillon. This isn’t a long freakin list of “A” grade potential players.
Ugh, I just don’t get it. Put it this way, if you asked me which pitcher would have a major league career and I had to bet $100 on it, I’m picking Cole. If the bet was picking a pitcher that ends up as literally the greatest pitcher in the history of baseball, I’d put my money on Heredia and not even remotely think twice about it. The chance is miniscule for either pitcher, but I think it’s higher for Heredia and that’s how I’m defining ceiling.
There’s also no way you could convince, no matter how many people, I polled, that I would be making a definitively bad decision. Can people disagree sure, but there’s no way I’m “wrong.” I’m sorry. For people who say I am, I respond by pointing out my belief that those people are stupid, ignorant, and know nothing about baseball. Again, sorry, but that’s just my feeling on it. I’ve had a long day, I have a major paper due, the Pens blew a huge lead, and the Pirates lost, so forgive my attitude, but I’m 99.9% convinced I know significantly more than basically anyone on this site about the Pirates and their minor league system and know enough about baseball to apply it to where I simply laugh at those who try to tell me I’m wrong. I’m going to stand by that and if that makes me the biggest d-bag in the universe, so be it.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 12, 2025 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions
i think
you are very intelligent, objective enough (not a homer), and probably know more about the Pirates system than almost everyone else on this board
however, this doesn’t change my opinion that your analytical framework for approaching this problem of comparing ceilings is flawed
by blue bulldog on Apr 12, 2025 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I can definitely accept that
For those I rubbed the wrong way, I’m sorry.
Intelligent/Objective - I reciprocate those compliments in your direction bulldog.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 12, 2025 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course you are entitled to your opinion
but to just respond with a flat “no” is overly dismissive of Heredia’s enormous talent level. Furthermore, almost all of your arguments have centered around how Cole has “raised” his ceiling by pitching well in college. Cole didn’t really change the type of pitcher he was during those three years, he merely developed as one would hope a top high schooler would.
I just can not agree that Heredia’s ceiling is so far behind Cole’s that it doesn’t even merit discussion. John for one described Heredia’s upside as “enormous” and said that he would be a Grade A prospect “if you look only at projection and potential.” To me those comments describe Heredia’s ceiling. Based on that definition (one that you clearly disagree with as you seem to prefer a definition of ceiling that incorporates how likely…or in your words realistic…it is for a player to reach his ceiling) I think you can make a case that Heredia’s is higher. I never said that it was definitive, only that some people might consider Heredia’s ceiling, not his overall prospect status, to be higher than Cole’s..
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 11, 2025 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
optimistic on Wimmers?
Honestly, it seems like a biased account coming from somebody who says he’s a fan of Wimmers and with a personal connection to him. Hard to be too happy with any report that has him at 86-89 mph.
by mrkupe on Apr 10, 2026 1:43 PM EDT reply actions
Mike Kickham's successful AA debut
A 6th round pick of the Giants in the 2010 draft - he was a draft-eligible sophomore out of Missouri State. He was a starter for the Giants A ball affiliate in the Sally last year, but missed the first several weeks of the season with a fingernail issue. He showed good swing-and-miss stuff, but was inconsistent and often wild. The Giants surprisingly jumped him all the way to the AA Eastern League this year (skipping the A+ Cal League) after a strong spring training.
Kickham had his AA debut last night against Manny Machado and the Bowie Bay Sox.
He gave up 1 run (unearned) and 1 hit (bloop single) in 3.2 innings of work - striking out 5 and walking 4.
He was still going strong with 2 outs in the 4th inning (runner on 1B) - he struck out 2 of the last 3 hitters that he faced - but was pulled after hitting 71 pitches (he had a 75 count hard limit). The high pitch count and walks are worrisome, as it continues the 3 bad tendencies that he showed last year. However, his fastball was sitting 91-93 mph with plenty of movement and was dominant (4 of his 5 Ks came on FBs). He was able to blow it by the Bowie hitters even up in the zone. His slider and curve showed a lot of movement, and he was able to get swings-and-misses with them, but he had a lot of trouble throwing them in the strike zone.
I’d call it a very successful debut, because he showed that he has the stuff to deserve the aggressive promo, but the command and control issues still remain. He’s a good sleeper candidate to keep an eye on, as he has the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter in the majors and he could vault over Eric Surkamp as the top SP prospect in the Giants system if he puts in a solid season in AA.
My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Apr 10, 2026 2:15 PM EDT reply actions
Kickham
I’ve had Kickham on my sleeper list for awhile and wrote him up a few weeks ago
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
i liked that article
"On [umpire] Jeff Kellogg taking a foul tip to the groin: ‘Two balls, one strike.’"
by James Westfall on Apr 10, 2026 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I remember reading that and wondereing if you had some inside knowledge on Kickham, because he was a guy that went to high school and college so close to you.
My son, Adalberto Mejia. He's got the goods - he just needs a cool nickname.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Apr 10, 2026 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Trout is 10 for 20
but I would like to ask John, how much power will Trout develop? It is acceptable to expect 20 HR from him in his second/third FULL season in MLB?
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
by orli on Apr 10, 2026 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
Where the hell did I see someone
(like a national guy, not some Joe Schmo) say Trout had 80 power?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 10, 2026 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
In
this ESPN article, Tigers’ scout Eddie Bane (who not surprisingly is the guy responsible for drafting Trout when he was the Angels’ scouting director) said it right after comparing Trout to Mickey Mantle. It’s not that I don’t believe him but since his rep is linked to Trout, it doesn’t surprise me to see him hype the crap out of him. I think it’s silly to say he has 80 power. It might be a plus tool. It might even be a plus plus tool. But it’s not an 80…
by KentuckyPirate on Apr 10, 2026 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why you're
on “staff” lol
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 10, 2026 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry I dont use those 80 power scales, but whats your opinion on Trouts power in HR numbers? or SLG or ISO?
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
by orli on Apr 10, 2026 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Well 80 power would be indicative of
40+ HR’s. Personally I see Trout as more of a 20-25 HR guy in his prime, maybe 30 in a career power year
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Apr 10, 2026 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
40 plus sounds really crazy to me...
but I m not going to say it wont happen after I saw Ellsbury smashing more then 30 last year….
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
by orli on Apr 10, 2026 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
20-25 HR...
sounds really familiar with me
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
by orli on Apr 10, 2026 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a lot depends on when that second or third full season comes
Would like to see him get fully healthy and the number of ABs this year he gets will obviously affect the production projection.
It’s funny to look back a few years ago when there were many people dinging Trout on claims that he might not get past 10 HR/year . . .
Considering his overall feel for hitting, his bat speed, and his strong build that should only get stronger, I’d be surprised if he isn’t at least a 55 power guy, and the actual projection is rosier than that.
by mrkupe on Apr 10, 2026 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I wanna get some scouting done myself
but it will be at least a week before i can head out on the road, maybe longer.
by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2026 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
Beloit
John,
Some buddies and I are planning a weekend trip to Beloit sometime this spring while Sano and Rosario are still there (fully expect they’ll move up in June or July so trying to see them before that happens). If you’re heading that way, let us know. Would love to buy you a beer for all the hard work you do! :)
by purppride1 on Apr 11, 2025 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Montgomery
did you happen to see his start? did you see anything that could make you believe he’ll have a much better year
by scoods on Apr 10, 2026 2:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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