Retrospective: Top Prospects of 2002

by John Sickels on Jan 29, 2026 1:12 PM EST

This morning I pulled a book off my shelf at random: The 2002 Prospect Handbook by Baseball America. I decided to take a look and see who the top prospect in each organization was that year. You can find the list below and it may make for some interesting discussion from a brief snapshot in time.

Top Prospects in Each Organization for 2002, from Baseball America

Anaheim Angels: Casey Kotchman, 1B
Arizona Diamondbacks: Luis Terrero, OF
Atlanta Braves: Wilson Betemit, SS
Baltimore Orioles: Richard Stahl, LHP
Boston Red Sox: Seung Song, RHP

Chicago Cubs: Mark Prior, RHP
Chicago White Sox: Joe Borchard, OF
Cincinnati Reds: Austin Kearns, OF
Cleveland Indians: Corey Smith, 3B
Colorado Rockies: Chin-Hui Tsao, RHP

Detroit Tigers: Nate Cornejo, RHP
Florida Marlins: Josh Beckett, RHP
Houston Astros: Carlos Hernandez, LHP
Kansas City Royals: Angel Berroa, SS
Los Angeles Dodgers: Ricardo Rodriguez, RHP

Milwaukee Brewers: Nick Neugebauer, RHP
Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer, C
Montreal Expos: Brandon Phillips, SS
New York Mets: Aaron Heilman, RHP
New York Yankees: Drew Henson, 3B

Oakland Athletics: Carlos Pena, 1B
Philadelphia Phillies: Marlon Byrd, OF
Pittsburgh Pirates: J.R. House, C
St. Louis Cardinals: Jimmy Journell, RHP
San Diego Padres: Sean Burroughs, 3B

San Francisco Giants: Jerome Williams, RHP
Seattle Mariners: Ryan Anderson, LHP
Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Josh Hamilton, OF
Texas Rangers: Hank Blalock, 3B
Toronto Blue Jays: Josh Phelps, C

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Read More: Marlon Byrd (CF - CHC), Hank Blalock (1B - TAM), Luis Terrero (CF - CIN), Josh Beckett (P - BOS), Josh Phelps (1B - CLE), Brandon Phillips (2B - CIN), Josh Hamilton (LF - TEX), Joe Borchard (RF - SFG), Austin Kearns (LF - FLA), Jerome Williams (P - ANA), Angel Berroa (2B - ARI), Carlos Pena (1B - TAM), Casey Kotchman (1B - CLE), Joe Mauer (C - MIN), Aaron Heilman (P - PIT), Wilson Betemit (3B - BAL), Chin-hui Tsao (KAN), Mark Prior (P - NYY), J.R. House (C - NYM), Ricardo Rodriguez (P - FLA), Sean Burroughs (3B - MIN), San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

Comments

Pretty sad list.

3 superstars
Beckett - has been a bit inconsistent but an impressive career so far
Mauer - sadly may have a short peak due to injuries
Hamilton - was out of baseball at one point for off-field issues
(Prior would have been here if not for injuries)

Then you have a handful of above average regulars (I imagine some would argue Phillips should be listed above), some role players, and a bunch of misses. I would like to think a lot of progress has been made in this department in the past decade.

John, how long have you been publishing your work on prospects? How far back could we go into your work to see your performance? Of course a lot is lost without the comments and context, many of these players were great prospects at the time and I imagine BA did hit on some of their flaws.

This kind of makes me want to pick up my own copy of their 2002 book as well as some of the others to see how they fared.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 1:57 PM EST reply actions

Not a sad list

I’d say what you said is probably more an accurate assessment of “prospecting” is overall. Lots of teams “best prospects” often end up as average regulars or worse (which often makes us fans disappointed). Would be interesting to see BA’s list as well to compare.

by NastyNate82 on Jan 29, 2026 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

I think most would agree that the “top prospects” should be the ones most likely to succeed…meaning each teams’ top prospect should be the most successful MLB player of that period just as the top 10 prospects should have more successful careers than the ones ranked 90-100.

With that in mind, yes I think it is a pretty sad list. Sure that is using hindsight but that is exactly what you are doing when you post something like this as a conversation starter.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Not necessarily most likely to succeed

As you mentioned in your first comment, this list is without context. JR House for the Pirates may have been their best prospect, but he may have only been ranked #6 for the Cubs and therefore not a great prospect to begin with. As in, he may have only been John’s 75th best prospect overall, but the best in the Bucs’ system.
I actually would say its sad in the sense that some guys like (namely House and Prior) were absolutely destroyed by list.

by NastyNate82 on Jan 29, 2026 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I remember JR House quit well (I watched him dismantle my HS football team in the playoffs in person) and he certainly shouldn’t have been 6th on the Cubs list if he was in their system. I know you were just throwing out a hypothetical example but I don’t see how it makes this list any less sad.

If you look at each team individually, these names were supposed to be the next cornerstone of their franchise moving forward and 90% of them failed to develop into stars. In fact, more than 50% of them failed to even be regulars but you can go through each teams’ system and see multiple examples of success. Just to illustrate, the first 5 teams listed in the BA handbook:

Angels - Johan Santana was 9th
D-Backs - Brandon Webb was 26th
Braves - Adam Wainwright was 2nd
Orioles - Erik Bedard was 2nd (very weak system coming in 29th on their team rankings)
Red Sox - Kevin Youkilis was 29th

Obviously this isn’t a perfect science and you can’t always foresee injuries, but some of these misses by BA were due to their approach (no knock on them, I imagine even they would agree they are more knowledgeable know than they were a decade ago). As I said above, many of these misses were very good prospects at the time but I definitely think the prospecting world has improved quite a bit and would have had a drastically different view on this prospect class back then.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Just curious

what high school?

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Buried Treasure - #9 Prospect Jeff Locke
Buried Treasure - Interactive Discussion: Prospect Swap

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 29, 2026 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Parkersburg High School

http://www.nitrowildcatfootball.com/files/1998/1998-11-28GAZ-WildcatsPassBiggestTest-DrillPkbg24-15.htm

Excuse the grammar above, was paying more attention to looking up the players than the post. :D

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

No, nothing about the grammar lol

I’m just wondering because I went to Charleston Catholic. J.R. House was a bit before my time (2007 HS graduate) but I do remember some of the fuss about him. Remarkable athlete.

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Buried Treasure - #9 Prospect Jeff Locke
Buried Treasure - Interactive Discussion: Prospect Swap

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 29, 2026 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

http://myplace.frontier.com/~samjake1/id8.html

If you see Nitro or J. House from 1996-1998, that is him.

http://www.msnsportsnet.com/profile.cfm?id=101010&sport=football

Quite impressive indeed. If it weren’t for injuries, I am confident he would had at least been a role player if not a regular. Tough to come back from two all of the injuries he had (I want to say rotator cuff surgery, TJ, 2 blown knees, and tore an abdominal muscle from his ribcage?)

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Nitro

My best friend currently lives/works in Virginia. I visit a handful of times a year. I am deathly scared of flying, so I drive every time. The route from Cincinnati to Chartlottesville takes my right past Nitro and every time I go past there, all I can think about is JR House and how good those football teams were (my high school is perennial nationally ranked, so I was into the national scene at that time pretty strongly).

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 29, 2026 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

Johan

Would later change his first name to Ervin, that’s not the Johan currently on the Mets (he was in Houston’s system before taken by the Twins in the rule 5 draft if I recall).

by Grudyfan on Jan 29, 2026 4:51 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

You may be correct, does list him as RHP in the book and I’m not sure Santana ever played for a team before the Twins. Thanks for the correction, I wasn’t really following prospects until ’07 or so.

That said he is still better than Kotchman.

I believe Lackey was 5th that year as well so maybe that is a better example. ;)

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

they traded Kotchman to the best minor league developement team in MLB

they traded him straight up for Texeira

"Self-control is the chief element in self-respect, and self-respect is the chief element in courage." ― Thucydides

by TomCat009 on Jan 29, 2026 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

they also gave up Marek

so not straight up

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by TRanger on Jan 30, 2026 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

Johan was a Rule 5 pick from the Astros

He was signed by Houston as an IFA.

Grudy is correct - the Santana you see on the Angels list is Ervin. Still a good pitcher, but hasn’t been THAT good :)

by guru4u on Jan 30, 2026 8:13 AM EST up reply actions

I'm sure

the prospecting world has changed, and obviously for the better. I think the advanced statistics have merged with the scouting industry to make the industry more balanced. With all that information, I think you’re dead on in that John’s and BA’s lists would probably look quite different
But I would hesitate to say that every team’s top prospect would be a “cornerstone” of the franchise moving forward. I think by and large we get carried away with prospects, thinking that every top prospect will have a 15 year career and be really productive the entire time. There’s value in getting a guy who’s a solid regular for maybe half that time. But you’re also right in that there were an alarmingly low number of guys who were even just regulars.

by NastyNate82 on Jan 29, 2026 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

Your last sentence hits what I was trying to say. Sure BA wouldn’t be 30 for 30 if they had their current approach back in 2002 but I would like to think they would have done better than 3 of 30. :)

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 5:49 PM EST up reply actions

+1

A whole lot of this.

by GuyinNY on Jan 30, 2026 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

1996

I have been writing books since 1996.

I go back and review old prospect lists frequently. I’ve done it a lot here and i do it in the book every year.

by John Sickels on Jan 29, 2026 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

here

I reviewed my Top 50 Prospects List from 2002 four years ago, in 2008:

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/2/11/12371/8742

by John Sickels on Jan 29, 2026 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

Now that I see the list, I do remember some of these conversations.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

You could make a pretty good MLB team

Out of the names on that list. Maybe a Sickels 02 fantasy team!

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". ~Rogers Hornsby

by extavernmouse on Jan 30, 2026 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

Got to put Anderson under the injury title as well.

Lookout Landing just did a story on him the other day.

by tarheels24 on Jan 29, 2026 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Injuries derailed him too early to assume he would have been a superstar in my opinion. Lots of prospects have potential, at least with Prior we were able to see that on a MLB field before the injuries got him.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Yikes

Picking the Top Prospect for each team is probably the “safest” pick an analyst can make. Therefore is the meaning here simply that 80% of all safe prospect predictions can turn out 100% wrong????

Maybe we all should be a little more humble in our assertions….

by Fanthead on Jan 29, 2026 2:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

humble

yeah, the point is not to bash BA. The point is to show how much uncertainty there is with this

by John Sickels on Jan 29, 2026 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

However, there is one name I was expecting that that was Joe Mauer’s. I wonder what happened with him.

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by Jessy S on Jan 30, 2026 4:22 AM EST up reply actions

+1

I used to get pretty bent out of shape over the placement of players on a top 50 or 100 but I’ve come to accept that often there is not a huge difference after the elite are sorted out. That is not to say the 50th ranked prospect is no better than the 200th, but the 50th ranked prospect is unlikely exponentially better either.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

..or at least their chances of success aren’t that far apart. Like I said above, I think the intent when doing a prospect list is to rank them in order of future MLB success but we all know that doesn’t always work out. The vast majority of prospects fail, after those few elite ones are identified I think it is very hard to say definitively who will be the most successful MLB players and we as fans are often very quick to act like we have identified the next big star.

Of course prospect classes vary too. Sometimes you have amazing depth, other years it seems every prospect on the list has HUGE flaws.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 2:26 PM EST up reply actions

Nate Cornejo

Had one of the most amazing stat-lines for a picher, in 2003.

6-17, 4.67 ERA - 194 IP, 46K. 2.1K/9IP.

Being a Tiger fan, I still don’t know how they allowed him to pitch the whole year.

Go Tigers.

by talloptician on Jan 29, 2026 2:11 PM EST reply actions

And they made the World Series, what, three years later?

Amazing. As a Mariner fan who started going to school in MI in the fall of 2003, I always saw them as the reverse of the 2001 M’s (who never seemed to lose a game).

by quacker27 on Jan 29, 2026 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

Might be a dumb question but....

John, has prospect analysis improved in any significant way since 2002? Do you yourself view players differently than you did then?

Thanks.

by Fanthead on Jan 29, 2026 2:14 PM EST reply actions

I woul the answer to this is yes

Moneyball, whether you agree with it or not, came out after this list. The line of thinking espouses in that book and others, coupled with sabermetric theory, has had a profound impact on how people look at prospects, IMHO

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by VolsnCards5 on Jan 29, 2026 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Timeline

John, a question you’ve probably answered before but one that’s crossed my mind frequently: what do you think the appropriate amount of time is before you can “call” a prospect list, i.e. when you’re ready to grade yourself on projections? 3 years out? 5? A decade? I know you review prospect lists about 4-5 years after they were made, so I assume that’s your pick, but I am curious.

by GuyinNY on Jan 29, 2026 3:16 PM EST reply actions

I think you can pretty much review prospects after three to five years.

But it is harder to do so because of the minor league system.

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by Jessy S on Jan 30, 2026 4:25 AM EST up reply actions

Even going back just 3 years

it can be pretty amazing how much changes even in a short time.

I think it would be kind of fun to do a 2009 top prospects in hindsight. As in how would you rank the guys if you could have a redo, and rank them now? Organization 20/20 hindsight top 10 lists might also be kind of fun.

Alex Avila, relatively unheralded at the time, is probably the Tigers top 2009 prospect. The Red Sox system looks a little thinner than it did, but still bosts Bard, Rizzo, Kelly, Middlebrooks, and Reddick. The Yankees top two from 2009, Jesus Montero and Austin Jackson, might remain unchanged, as might Hanson and Heyward for the Braves. But in some organizations, it might be tough to come up with even 10 interesting names after only 3 years.

by acerimusdux on Jan 29, 2026 3:16 PM EST reply actions

People on overthemonster were saying that

Matt Moore would be better than Lester, I made the point that 60% of BA top 10 overall pitching prospects bust, everybody there flamed me and said Moore was guaranteed to be an ace. Hopefully this list helps remind people.

by Bososx13 on Jan 29, 2026 3:35 PM EST reply actions

oh, they said Moore would be better than Lester next year just to clarify

by Bososx13 on Jan 29, 2026 3:46 PM EST up reply actions

I'd

take Moore over Lester year.

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Buried Treasure - #9 Prospect Jeff Locke
Buried Treasure - Interactive Discussion: Prospect Swap

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 29, 2026 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

do you mean next year

no way. Look at those prospects. Prospect success rates are so low

by Bososx13 on Jan 29, 2026 6:45 PM EST up reply actions

I mean

next year. Yes prospect success rates are low, but rarely do you see a prospect who’s a left-handed pitcher with 3 plus-plus pitches, well above-average command, and a clean release that doesn’t throw up any injury red-flags.

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Buried Treasure - #9 Prospect Jeff Locke
Buried Treasure - Interactive Discussion: Prospect Swap

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 30, 2026 4:48 AM EST up reply actions

u mean like jon lester?

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by Nnamdi Asomugha on Jan 30, 2026 8:29 AM EST up reply actions

I think Moore's going to be special

But I want to see more than 20 innings or whatever before he’s better than Jon Lester.

by NastyNate82 on Jan 30, 2026 7:53 PM EST up reply actions

omg what thread?

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2026 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

Oh man Hank Blalock

So completely awesome his first two years, then nothing

Just don't piss her off, otherwise she'll get all Dien Bien Phu up in your Boxer Rebellion - caknuck

btho Iowa State

by MonkeyEpoxy on Jan 29, 2026 3:49 PM EST reply actions

as a Nats fan

It always infuriates me to see Brandon Phillips. Or Cliff Lee. Or (at one point) Grady Sizemore. I know there’s no guarantee they would have developed the same in the Expos/Nationals system, but holy crap, that trade was ridiculous.

by Jaumiusk on Jan 29, 2026 6:16 PM EST reply actions

If that trade hadn't happened, the Expos would probably still exist.

by WhyGodWhy on Jan 29, 2026 6:39 PM EST up reply actions

Probably would have bought the Expos another 5 to 10 years in Montreal, at least.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 29, 2026 6:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Would have made absolutely no difference

MLB owned the team, so it needed to be sold to another party. No potential owner was going to pay what MLB wanted for the franchise only to keep it in Montreal.

by nixa37 on Jan 29, 2026 7:29 PM EST up reply actions

Not really

Contraction seemed very, very real (if not imminent) back then & the team’s gate #s were largely dreadful (not unjustifiaby so really) since the abortion of 1994. Montreal was a tenuous contender, but Bartolo Colon was an absolute frontline starter at the time so the move did seem justified as there didn’t seem to be a tomorrow in Olympic Stadium. Also, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee & Grady Sizemore didn’t blossom/debut until well after the exodus of the Expos, so that ‘What If?’ parallel universe scenario is pretty flawed obviously. (The narrative (is anybody else beyond tired of the overuse of this term?) has shifted considerably over time although it si clear that Montreal ceded a lot in retrospect & the Indians were certainly in the right place at the right time so to speak.

{Since the team was bound to move, the contrarian/dual citizen in me likes that the prospects ended up elsewhere as Les Expos were doomed. To quote George Costanza— ’Sticking it!!"}

by Matt0330 on Jan 30, 2026 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

Carlos Hernandez

Now there was a promising young arm. Yet another young pitcher who had his career cut short by injury. Back in 2002, Astros fans thought that Oswalt and Hernandez would anchor their rotation for years…

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 29, 2026 6:44 PM EST via mobile reply actions

Yeah I remember that curve, was pretty nasty the few times I got to see him pitch. I also remember going and picking him up when playing MVP Baseball.

by jfish26101 on Jan 29, 2026 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

I remember Hernandez a couple years ago in Durham

I kept thinking man this guy has some pretty good stuff, why is he stuck in AAA. I figured it was the depth of the Rays pitching, but I guess he never caught on anywhere else.

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by Dbullsfan on Jan 30, 2026 1:49 AM EST up reply actions

Don't forget Wade Miller

Who looked to be a strong #2 to Oswalt.

Free at last!

by lhb98 on Jan 30, 2026 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

so much heartache

I wonder how many fantasy players had owned, then completely gave up on Hamilton, Phillips, Carlos Pena before they finally showed up.. I would rather have owned Prior, Blalock, Kearns, and Berroa. At least those owners got something out of it. even a Jerome Williams owner got more fantasy value compared to the Hamilton owners who wound up dropping him… crazy

by ufo on Jan 29, 2026 11:06 PM EST reply actions

a brief breakdown of the origins of the 30 Organizational Top Prospects

13 1st round draft picks (#1 overall: Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton; #2 overall: Josh Beckett, Mark Prior; #7: Austin Kearns; #9: Sean Burroughs; #10: Carlos Pena; #12: Joe Borchard; #13: Casey Kotchman; #18: Aaron Heilman, Richard Stahl; #19: Ryan Anderson; #26: Corey Smith)
2 1st round supplemental draft picks (Nate Cornejo, Jerome Williams)
2 2nd round draft picks (Brandon Phillips, Nick Neugebauer)
2 3rd round draft picks (Hank Blalock, Drew Henson)
1 4th round draft pick (Jimmy Journell)
1 5th round draft pick (J.R. House)
2 10th round draft picks(Marlon Byrd, Josh Phelps)
7 International Free Agents (Dominican Republic: Luis Terrero, Wilson Betemit , Angel Berroa, Ricardo Rodriguez; Venezuela: Carlos Hernandez; South Korea: Seung Song; Taiwan: Chin-Hui Tsao)

In retrospect, the list seems very heavy on mid- to late- 1st round draft picks relative to 2nd (and perhaps also 3rd) round picks. So almost certainly there’s a heavy human bias skewing the #1 organizational prospect choice (amongst draftees) towards a recent 1st-rounder. It would be worth looking at who was the highest-rated draftee behind the international free agents in each of those 7 organizations to see where they had been drafted.

by reillocity on Jan 31, 2026 12:21 AM EST reply actions