Stick a Fork in 'em
As a minor league-focused community, I think we're pretty much the last guys to give up on prospects in many cases. We have seen how prospect stock ebbs and flows, and how many talented players eventually get their chance, even if it takes years (see Jack Cust, Josh Hamilton, etc).
But it's a fact of the matter that some prospects just don't have what it takes to succeed in the major leagues, and it's wise to cut bait on them early. I'm not really talking about injured players here.
Who would you say is one prospect who was highly rated entering the season (top 100), who you think the ship has passed on and are no longer valuable, not counting injuries? I would say if I had to pick one off the top of my head, it would be Chris Carter of the A's. Sure he may get another chance, and he has great power, but he's already pretty old for a prospect and seems unable to keep a respectable K/BB at the major league level. Who is your pick?
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Andrew Brackman as anything more than a middle reliever
I don’t see him ever being consistent enough for a rotation or high-leverage innings
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Jul 29, 2025 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
I've probably been his biggest critic...
but if he’s a full time reliever he strikes me as the kind of guy who could figure it out late and end up a pretty tough 7th/8th set up type
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by alskor on Jul 29, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Been pretty disappointing
But I would take a solid set-up career out of him at this point.
by cookiedabookie on Jul 29, 2025 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Carter
I think folks are jumping ship on Carter way too early. He’s younger than Desmond Jennings, has had fairly consistent production in the minors, and can take a walk. Two things that seem to stand out, as to why folks are dropping CC like a hot potato:
1. 0-for-33 - he had a really long dry spell as a start to his MLB career. Lots of players can go through rookie struggles (the most recent streak like this I can remember was Robin Ventura, who went 40 or 50 ABs as a rookie with merely 3-5 hits), not all of them hit right out of the gate. Outside of that streak, he hit .289/.385. He was also horribly unlucky - his BABIP was around .210; even being a power hitter, his norm in the minors is around .290. All he needs is consistent playing time…which leads us to…
2. Injuries - he’s been battling hand/thumb injuries all of the 2011 season, so yes, his production is down this season, and he may need all season to properly work through them. But don’t take his 2011 numbers as an indicator of lack or reduction of talent, because I really don’t think that’s the case.
Many talent evaluators (Goldstein, Law) say that in order to properly evaluate a prospect, he needs 1.5-2 seasons worth of playing time in the bigs - for a hitter, that’s about 800-1000 PAs. Carter has 110 PAs in his career so far. Let’s not count him out just yet.
by dbreer23 on Jul 29, 2025 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
+1
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by hero66 on Jul 29, 2025 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Chris Carter’s career path couldn’t be clearer. He will wash out in Oakland, get released, sign a minor-league deal with Tampa Bay, then become an American League All-Star first baseman.
by StickRat on Jul 29, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Jose Iglesias
I have a feeling that they may have too aggressively promoted Jose, a .532 OPS in Pawtucket is, well, terrible. If he isn’t done as a prospect, I don’t think it’ll be for a couple years until he’s major league ready, they need to demote him and bring him up the way he was supposed to.
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by Rogue Nine on Jul 29, 2025 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed
His glove is so damn good, but the bat just isn’t there and there was no reason for them to bring him up like they did.
by High and Inside on Jul 29, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
too young
too young to give up on, plus relatively new to U.S.; very smart
by Jim in NC on Jul 30, 2025 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Buck Showalter
Showalter said that once a player is 24 he is no longer a prospect. He felt that at this age you are no longer developing physically. Carter is over 24 so in Showalter’s eyes that is a knock against him. I’m not saying I agree but it is interesting that a respected MLB manager feels this way.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 29, 2025 2:04 PM EDT reply actions
pretty absurd theory if you ask me.
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by doublestix on Jul 29, 2025 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Very possible
He also didn’t like to draft players who had really thick beards at a young age. He figured it meant they would age too quickly.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 29, 2025 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I read this
and then i smiled
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by SoCalSoxFan on Jul 29, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish I was joking
I am trying to remember his other advice. It was WAY off the charts (and that is something since he was obsessed with beards).
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 29, 2025 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
I would love Showalter to run a minor league system. Nickname would be babyface assasins.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 3:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
LOL
Nice one JB!
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 29, 2025 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Im not saying its 100%
but we always talk about age relative to league around here. 24 is pretty much the last age before the community starts saying “too old”. There are obvious exceptions to be made (guys who played other sports, changed positions, sold throwing relievers) but as a whole, if a guy drafted at 18 hasn’t broken out by 23, (or a 21 year old by the age of 25) then I think its pretty safe to give up on them.
All that said, I would never give up on any prospect completely until he hit his second franchise.
by ADLC on Jul 29, 2025 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure abou this.
I look at how a player has matured physically, but I don’t have a cut off for when all players are matured.
Just for an example, Wade Davis matured very early while Tim Beckham still hasn’t matured.
by mr. maniac on Jul 29, 2025 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Ashville radio announcers
reported 97mph on his fastball in his most recent start, which was quite successful. He’s not fixed, but his stuff is still there.
by mkorpal on Jul 29, 2025 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I really really really really want to believe in Wilmer Flores
He has been a personal fav of mine for the past few years. It seems like he has SO much potential, but a little frustrating to see that he has not developed as much as I expected up to this point. He’s young, and shown signs of the immense upside, so I can’t give up on him yet. Hopefully he starts tapping into that offensive potential because he will need it to be considered a 3B bat.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 3:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
He'll be 19 for two more weeks.
I think it’s insanely early to give up on him at this point, considering hitters typically don’t learn how to hit for power until their early 20’s. Yeah, I understand the plate discipline hasn’t been there and he doesn’t seem to have a position at the moment but I’d give him at least two more years before even thinking of calling him a bust. He was one of Tony Bernazard’s last rush jobs in the organization back in 2009, starting him at Low A Savannah as a 17 year old (along with Jefry Marte).
Just to give an example here and not to say that he’s a big prospect even now but a similarly rushed, albeit not as highly touted prospect in Juan Lagares has raised his stock immensely the past two years after being left for dead by Tony’s Minor League System of Doom. They got Lagares on a more reasonable path and he’s hitting .345/.384/.511 between St. Lucie and Binghamton and exhibiting better plate discipline. So, I think there’s still time for Flores. He’s got a lot of talent…he may just need more time is all.
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by Steve Schreiber on Jul 29, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
your optimism on Wilmer makes me very happy
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 3:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The bat still has a chance to be very good.
but he’s a hard guy for me to give the benefit of the doubt to - at least in terms of ranking him highly - because a) he’s performed very poorly; and b) he’s not all that toolsy and probably ends up in RF. I’m not even sure he’ll be an asset there. He’s still a guy I think could figure it out & emerge as a player/prospect whose bat carries him (thus he’ll probably get more attention than he should!) but for now I can’t get excited about a guy like this.
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Controversial Prospect: Aaron Hicks
Seems to be a love/hate debate on him. Some praise him for his tools, others ready to bury him do to a lack of production. He’s a real tough guy to evaluate because a lot of his value comes from his plus defensive ability.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 3:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm pretty high on the bat anyway
He is playing in the FSL…
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't buy it
Even John says the power remains sketchy.
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2025 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see some pop coming in his swing.
He’s not a slap hitter… good swing plane. Not a small guy either. He’s just still figuring it out. I’m usually willing to bet on premium defenders at up the middle spots figuring it out… especially when I think they have all the tools to do so. I don’t think he’ll ever be a huge power threat or anything, but I don’t think it will be a weakness in his game for a CF. Plenty of gap power and 15+ HRs very reasonable IMHO.
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with what you are saying
I guess I arguing more that he will be a MUCH better real life player then fantasy player. The kind of guy that helps an MLB team a lot but can kill a fantasy season.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2025 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely.
I think his fantasy value will disappear for periods of time. Adam Jones might be a solid comp in that respect. At least pre-2011 Adam Jones… he’s stepped it up this year.
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
2-3 WAR player = very reasonable
I think these modern metrics will paint a clearer and happier picture of his worth.
A 270/350/430 slash line looks pretty safe and if you factor that in with good centerfield defense and one of the best throwing arms in the minors and you got a 2-3 WAR player that could bump to 5-6 WAR during his peak if he has a few 290/370/460 type seasons
by ScottAZ on Jul 30, 2025 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Possibly
Though I disagree that WAR paints a clear and happy picture of a player. It is a flawed stat that is usually misused.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2025 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
agree that
all these new metrics can be abused and some can be downright inaccurate (most notably range factor), but it still has come a long ways from just ten years ago when defense and baserunning were often statistically ignored
by ScottAZ on Jul 30, 2025 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
But WAR is not nearly as good as people believe it is.
Big Sexy
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by King Billy Royal on Jul 30, 2025 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Some possibilities...
Simon Castro
Jaff Decker
by gobruins12345 on Jul 29, 2025 3:34 PM EDT reply actions
I find Simon Castro's regression in performance very bizarre
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 3:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
his last start
was something to give hope but dunno about the rest of the season
another pitcher to throw out is trey mcnutt, esp after getting lit up yesterday, but with him its a lot easier to pin the regression on injuries
by gobruins12345 on Jul 29, 2025 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He wasn't really performing that well last year.
Didn’t miss all that many bats last couple years. His success (and by “success” I mean ERA and other things people pay too much attention to that aren’t particularly demonstrative of his performance or ability) was unsustainable. He’s deceptive but nothing else he does is all that great. I see him as closer to a back end starter.
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a little misleading...
Castro’s FIP last year was 3.32, only 0.4 greater than his ERA, with decent, albeit not great, K & BB rates (~7.5 & 2.5 per 9, respectively). His BABIP was somewhat low at ~.270 but his LOB% was a little below average as well, so they nearly cancel each other out.
He actually has improved his K & BB rates this year in AA, with a FIP of 3.45 (his ERA can be somewhat attributed to a ludicrous BABIP of ~.370). The harsh truth is that there’s no hiding that he was exposed at AAA, due to a all-around fallout of his game (BB rate shot way up, BABIP was way high, LOB% was nearly 50%).
IMO, he should go back to AAA to finish the year, to get a better gauge of his role for 2012.
by dbreer23 on Jul 30, 2025 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I only touched on this above, but my longstanding criticism of Castro was that his deceptive delivery was responsible for much of his success. I felt that it wouldn’t work as well as he climbed the ladder in the minors.
I also think you’re understating the effect of that BABIP. A .266 BABIP is pretty damn lucky results for Castro and a pretty far outlier in his career so far. San Antonio really isn’t a great hitting park either, with a wOBA of 91. It really depresses extra base hits as well. Among pitchers w >100 IP in the TL last season Castro had a very low BABIP, the 3rd lowest. Considering the inconsistent quality of minor league defenses & conditions I do place a lot of that on lucky groupings of balls.
I say it was largely luck and deception and I’m just not impressed with his raw stuff. His secondaries aren’t very good. He has nothing resembling a MLB out pitch and I expect he’ll miss less and less bats because of that. Major Leaguers aren’t fooled by fastballs. Doesn’t matter how hard you throw it - and Castro doesn’t work all that hard anyway. I do think he’ll still be a useful arm though and I wouldn’t “stick a fork in [him].”
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair points, all
Moreover, I was just making the argument that we shouldn’t pull the plug on him quite yet…but he does have some very serious flaws in his game, as you point out.
by dbreer23 on Jul 30, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Right... I definitely agree with that.
My point above was more of the “this shouldn’t have been entirely unexpected” variety.
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
In theory, I agree
. . . the problem is the ridiculous pitching environment at Tucson. If a developing pitcher is a little bit off of his game, or out of synch with his delivery, as Castro is prone to be, it just snowballs into disaster.
I’d start him at AA again and let him get into a rythm there next season. His year just started bad and got worse this year.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't buy it
107 ks in 129 innings is plenty.
Its as many as Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow, Cory Luebke, Blake Beavan, or Tyler Chatwood had there. Of course that may be a list of 4 or 5 starters though, so I see your point :)
I think he has struggled this year but that his sucess with balls in play wasn’t luck. I think he knows how to pitch but, that the environment at Tucson takes a while to adjust to and he just didn’t adjust well. I don’t really think there is anything wromg with him and he remains a pretty dang good pitching prospect.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Decker is only 21 years old...and in AA.
WAY too soon to count him out…his BA is atrocious this year (.227 as of today), but he’s still got a near-.800 OPS with a .380 OBP.
by dbreer23 on Jul 29, 2025 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Mark Rogers
That renaissance didn’t last very long, did it?
by ThomasG on Jul 29, 2025 3:50 PM EDT reply actions
is he hurt again or just not very good?
Fastball looked great at the end of 2010.
by John Black on Jul 29, 2025 4:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think he has carpal tunnel
Much spend way too much time posting on Minorleagueball
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by Kerm on Jul 29, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
*Must
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
by Kerm on Jul 29, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeremy Hermida...
Still only 27 but he seems to be relegated to AAA OPS machine.
by dbreer23 on Jul 29, 2025 5:15 PM EDT reply actions
why do i feel like he could still do something?
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by doublestix on Jul 29, 2025 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I was optimistic about him going into last year...
but he really has subpar athleticism… not much of an outfielder. Nothing at all stand out about Hermida and he has some major holes in his game. He barely resembles Jeremy Hermida the prospect at this point. Totally different player.
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twitter: @alskor
by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
too early
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by doublestix on Jul 29, 2025 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Shooter Hunt
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by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 29, 2025 9:51 PM EDT reply actions
Lol
I actually laughed. Yes Sir, I think a kid with 180 Innings, 226 walks allowed, and 31 hit by pitches may have other things to worry about besides being a hot prospect. Like perhaps, a new job soon!
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
My picks
Fernando Martinez
Josh Vitters
Wilmer Flores
Jason Knapp
Andrew Brackman
Jenrry Mejia
by cookiedabookie on Jul 29, 2025 10:50 PM EDT reply actions
also
withrow and ethan martin as starters
by matthewmafa on Jul 30, 2025 5:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Mejia
He was doing alright this year (too many walks, but SSS) in AAA, until TJ surgery. No reason to think that he can’t be in a big league rotation by 2013.
by Croatoan on Jul 30, 2025 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Vitters
I’ve always been a critic of him I guess, at draft time anyways. I tinked I sniffed out that he wasn’t the 3rd best player in the country at the time, at least.
That said, he’s actually having a pretty decent year with the stick at AA, in his age 21 season. I like 31 Xbh’s and only 37 strikouts - thats pure hitting ability.
Being one day younger than Matt Dominguez, the Marlins 2b prospect, Vitters always seems to do things one year after Matt. I’d argue that Vitters year at AA is better than Dominguez’s in AAA. Shoot, it is sven superficially better, but more so when you consider the vast differnces in the leagues.
Of course, I realize that Dominguez is a rock solid 3bman and Vitters has been so shaky that he has started to play 1b but, I just think the perception about Vitters might change a by a LOT by the time he has played a couple minths at Iowa next year.
As to whether he becomes a good major leaguer, not sure on that one. I think he has the talent with the bat though.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I thinked I sniffed out that [Vitters] wasn’t the 3rd best player in the country at the time, at least.
Whhhaaaaa? I’ve been told that one must be crazy to assume the draft isn’t done in order of best players available! Did you think you knew more than major league teams? Don’t they have access to more info than you do? Don’t you think you should have waited for him to have some PRO DATA??
(not at all directed at you, btw casejud! just a nice platform for me to make a point. I agreed then and agree now with you completely RE: Vitters. *cough*RENDON*cough*)
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Its ok, you can direct it at me
Let me be clear on this, I deffinitely think i can occasionally be smarted than some decisions made by major league teams! Yes! Especially the Pirates, Orioles, and Maribners when Bill Bavasi was in charge, etc.
If the Cubs want to assert that they nknwe at the time that Vitters wasn’t the third bast talent available in the 2007 draft, more power to them. Until then, I’ll assume that they thought he was.
Sure, pro data is nice but, the major league teams dont have that luxury so why should I. Sometimes we just have a hunch on a player.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you...
that really wasn’t directed at you! This was an indirect response to some of the criticisms Jeff Reese took for his Rendon placement on the BB midseason list…
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by alskor on Jul 30, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Right
Just rtambling on the topic and none of this is directed at you either . . .
I think it is perfectly valid for Jeff to assert an opinion that differs from a major league orginization EVEN IF the other teams say they took the best players available. I do not buy the “Matt Bush” type cop out about draft picks either. Every team has a vested interest in drafting a cost-controlled young superstar so when the miss, I call it a mistake and I think the teams do to.
People can talk all they want about all the information and expertise that major league orginizations have but, sorry, reason follows that you have to have results to for me to respect your opinion. Like the Pirates, for example. They dfont sometimes take a player who isnt one of the best available - they almost ALWAYS do.
Why would drafting UCLAs #2 starter ahead of thier ace be anything more than a more dramatic example of the Pirates long, comedy of errors really?
If Jeff Reece saying that Anthony Rendon is better than Bubba Starling meens that he is saying he is smarter than the Royals, so be it ! ! ! The Royals have been one of the dumber orginizations around for quite a long time now, why would this pick be any different. Not saying they haven’t made some good choices recently
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Jul 30, 2025 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

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