Frankie Piliere's top 100 prospects of 2011

by PissedMick on Feb 9, 2026 12:31 PM EST

It's up now at Fanhouse: http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2011/02/09/baseballs-top-100-prospects-of-2011/

Immediate points of interest:

Teheran at #2
Harper down at #7
Singleton at #11 (above Moustakas, Jennings, Belt and Myers)
Ackely at #9, Lawrie at #47

	MIKE TROUT (ANGELS)			• Finished 2010: Rancho Cucamonga • Level: High-A (California League) • B: R \| HT: 6-1 \| WT: 217
1
	POS	AGE	AVG	SB	XBH
	OF	19	.341	56	47

Before 2010 began, Trout was highly touted, make no mistake. But going into 2011 his stock as a prospect has gone into the stratosphere. Oozing with tools and showing off the ability to be a plus hitter, Trout is the closest thing to the total package that you'll find.

	JULIO TEHERAN (BRAVES)			• Finished 2010: Mississippi • Level: Double-A (Southern League) • B: R \| HT: 6-2 \| WT: 150
2
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	RHP	20	9-8	2.59	159

Teheran has been known as a tremendous talent for a couple years now, but with success under his belt at the upper levels in 2010, he can now be considered the best pitching prospect in the game. The Braves will try to take it slow, but Teheran's talent may continue to force their hand.

	ERIC HOSMER (ROYALS)			• Finished 2010: Northwest Arkansas • Level: Double-A (Texas League) • B: L \| HT: 6-4 \| WT: 215
3
	POS	AGE	AVG	HR	RBI
	1B	21	.338	20	86

After a tough 2009 season, some overlooked Hosmer heading into 2010. But after putting on a hitting clinic this past season, Hosmer is clearly back on track. I made the comparison back in July at the Futures Game, and I'll make it again: Hosmer is very similar to Joe Mauer at the plate with more thump in his bat.

	JESUS MONTERO (YANKEES)			• Finished 2010: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre • Level: Triple-A (International League) • B: R \| HT: 6-4 \| WT: 225
4
	POS	AGE	AVG	HR	RBI
	C	21	.289	21	75

He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero's bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.

	JEREMY HELLICKSON (RAYS)			• Finished 2010: Tampa Bay • Level: Major Leagues • B: R \| HT: 6-1 \| WT: 185
5
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	RHP	23	16-3	2.89	156

No young pitcher in baseball commands the ball like Hellickson. Let's not undersell his raw stuff either. With a fastball sitting 90-94 mph and an advanced feel for his secondary pitches, including a plus changeup, Hellickson is a complete pitcher aside from his lack of size.

	DOMONIC BROWN (PHILLIES)			• Finished 2010: Philadelphia • Level: Major Leagues • B: L \| HT: 6-5 \| WT: 200
6
	POS	AGE	AVG	HR	RBI
	OF	23	.309	22	81

We got a good glimpse of Brown's tools at the big-league level in 2010, and it appears he'll have a good shot at a full-time job in 2011. There may be some growing pains for Brown, but he's worth the wait.

	BRYCE HARPER (NATIONALS)			• Finished 2010: Scottsdale Scorpions • Level: Arizona Fall League • B: L \| HT: 6-3 \| WT: 205
7
	POS	AGE	AVG	XBH	OPS
	OF	18	.343	6	1.039

Harper got off to a slow start at instructs in the fall, but quickly shook off the rust and put on an impressive hitting display in the Arizona Fall League. Any performance from a teenager in the AFL is something pretty special, and I expect Harper will continue to wow us in 2011.

	AROLDIS CHAPMAN (REDS)			• Finished 2010: Cincinnati • Level: Major Leagues • B: L \| HT: 6-4 \| WT: 185
8
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	LHP	22	11-8	3.39	144

We learned a couple things about Aroldis Chapman in 2010, and one is that he throws perhaps as hard as any pitcher ever has. The other is that he is not a finished product. He has work to do on his command. Whether he starts or relieves long-term remains to be seen.

	DUSTIN ACKLEY (MARINERS)			• Finished 2010: Tacoma • Level: Triple-A (Pacific Coast League) • B: L \| HT: 6-1 \| WT: 185
9
	POS	AGE	AVG	XBH	OBP
	2B	22	.267	48	.368

Ackley got off to a terribly rough start in Double-A in 2010, but after a big performance in the Arizona Fall League, most of the doubts about him have evaporated. He's as good a pure bat as there is in the minor leagues.

	ZACH BRITTON (ORIOLES)			• Finished 2010: Norfolk • Level: Triple-A (International League) • B: L \| HT: 6-3 \| WT: 195
10
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	LHP	23	10-7	2.70	124

Showing off a heavy mid-90s fastball and command of his secondary pitches, Britton was one of the pitchers creating the most buzz in the scout section at the Futures Game in Anaheim. The good news for the Orioles is that he's not far off from contributing at the big-league level.

	JONATHAN SINGLETON (PHILLIES)			• Finished 2010: Lakewood • Level: Single-A (South Atlantic League) • B: L \| HT: 6-2 \| WT: 215
11
	POS	AGE	AVG	HR	RBI
	1B/OF	19	.290	14	77

Even as a big believer in Singleton's sleeper status following a strong GCL season in 2009, I could not have anticipated his breakout 2010 campaign. Showing off a plus hit tool and plus game-ready power from the left side, he is already drawing comparisons to Ryan Howard.

	MICHAEL PINEDA (MARINERS)			• Finished 2010: Tacoma • Level: Triple-A (Pacific Coast League) • B: R \| HT: 6-5 \| WT: 180
12
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	RHP	22	11-4	3.36	154

Armed with the imposing size, presence and big raw stuff, Pineda has everything you look for in a top-of-the-rotation starter. The good news is he's on the cusp of contributing full-time at the big-league level and could become a dynamic complement to Felix Hernandez.

	MANNY BANUELOS (YANKEES)			• Finished 2010: Trenton • Level: Double-A (Eastern League) • B: L \| HT: 5-10 \| WT: 215
13
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	LHP	19	0-4	2.51	85

Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn't. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.

	DESMOND JENNINGS (RAYS)			• Finished 2010: Tampa Bay • Level: Major Leagues • B: R \| HT: 6-2 \| WT: 200
14
	POS	AGE	AVG	SB	XBH
	OF	24	.274	39	36

Jennings has slipped on this list following a bumpy 2010 season. The skills, however, have not gone away. Jennings still has the tools to be a .300 hitter and 40-steal threat.

	MIKE MONTGOMERY (ROYALS)			• Finished 2010: Northwest Arkansas • Level: Double-A (Texas League) • B: L \| HT: 6-5 \| WT: 180
15
	POS	AGE	W-L	ERA	SO
	LHP	21	7-5	2.61	88

In a system loaded with left-handed pitching, Montgomery still leads the pack for the Royals. His height, projectability, changeup and 92-96 mph fastball make for a fascinating prospect. His curveball still needs work, however.

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Comments

The Moore rating seems off.

by rglass44 on Feb 9, 2026 12:50 PM EST reply actions

RE

I think you may be putting too much stock in the # of ranking. The separation between him and say, Britton is probably nominal. To me, the comment says he’s likely an A-/B+ guy for Frankie, nothing wrong with that.

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

+1

Although I think his say on Moore’s stuff still catching up to the results isn’t a good asessment.

by mr. maniac on Feb 9, 2026 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

I saw that

Wondered how to interpret it. Maybe he’s speaking more to the ability to dominate minor league hitters despite extended stretches of poor control? Is control/command is a component of “stuff”?

by siddfynch on Feb 9, 2026 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

Myers at #22, referred to as a catcher

I think Piliere is an interesting resource because of his background, but he’s really not that good at ranking prospects. Last year, he had Chris Marrero ahead of Chisenhall.

by HeavyHitter on Feb 9, 2026 1:04 PM EST reply actions

"Last year, he had Chris Marrero ahead of Chisenhall."

Couldn’t we play this game with everyone though?

by deezle on Feb 9, 2026 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

My list last year was exactly right!

by realitypolice on Feb 9, 2026 7:02 PM EST up reply actions

Not in this instance.

It was apparent to everyone else that Marrero was no longer worthy of top 100 consideration. Everything about him screamed “mediocre.”

by HeavyHitter on Feb 9, 2026 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

"Harper got off to a slow start in instructs"

I mean, I really don’t care about rankings and why he would put him at 7 instead of higher.. it makes no difference to me. But he’s really grasping for straws here if he’s trying to find anything Harper has done wrong up to this point.

by Humbled Fan on Feb 9, 2026 1:07 PM EST reply actions

I don't think it was a rationality, more of a general statement

I like where Harper is ranked.

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by jar75 on Feb 9, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely didn't expect that Petricka ranking

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by jar75 on Feb 9, 2026 1:19 PM EST reply actions

Jeffress is high

snicker

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Feb 9, 2026 1:36 PM EST reply actions

lol

by daveh33 on Feb 9, 2026 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

Profar @ 33

No player this young impressed me as much in 2010 as Profar did. Able to more than hold his own at the plate with older players in instructs, Profar is one of those rare toolsy young players that is already advanced in the bat department.

Makes me wonder how good that kid is really going to be… Wow

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

LSB: "Oh shit, JD. You crazy!"

by laxtonto on Feb 9, 2026 1:40 PM EST reply actions

Advanced bat?

I’ve heard all about his glove, but this is the first time I’ve seen someone say his bat is advanced…

by Rduffiedc on Feb 9, 2026 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

It is.

A 17 year old in the Northwest League walking 28 times while only striking out 46 is defintiely “advanced.” He has a very mature feel for hitting and squares balls up well, too.

Jason Parks had a piece over at BP today (subscriber content) that details what could go wrong with the top Texas prospects. A look at different ways they could stall. His take on Profar was essentially that even with advanced skills for his age he doesn’t have truly elite tools, just good/plus tools. He speculated that many will take his performances & ARL and assume he will continue a linear development into a superstar and then become disenchanted & jump ship when he doesn’t start putting up monster numbers. Its a very important point here. Profar IS very advanced, but the ceiling isn’t A-Rod. He’s still a great prospect.

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by alskor on Feb 9, 2026 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Just a general reply to a comment I really like from Parks

and assume he will continue a linear development into a superstar and then become disenchanted & jump ship when he doesn’t

This sounds like something we can attach to an awful lot of players. Whether it’s projecting guys in rookie ball to be all stars or whether it’s a toolsy player that struggles early, too often it seems people forget that there is likely to be variance in the development of a single player, let alone trying to take large groups of players at a certain age/level to declare a prospect is ahead or behind schedule(or worse, they will/won’t make it because this group did/didn’t). I’m not saying we can’t or shouldn’t use historical data to help form an opinion, just that it needs to stay an opinion and not be declared as a fact. It’s a mistake I made early on in prospecting(and learned from), and one that I still see made quite often around here.

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by gatling on Feb 9, 2026 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

+1

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

-1

. . . to a degree.
I agree with the “… decraring it as fact” part. Its just as wrong to foist forward a guy like 22 year old Dee Gordon and, then to have strange doubts about players who aree developing FANTASTICALLY, like Nolan Arenado or Jon Singleton.

To me factoring age relative to league accurately is just like using any other compelling statistic. It is a fact, for instance, that most player who are as good as Jon Singleton is, at the age he is, in that league, become good major league players - yes, most of them, not some or a few.

Nobody, not one, not a single player who has hit like Dee Gordon, at 22, in the Southern League, has become any kind of major league player. You would think this would be interesting information to some but, apparently not.

I’d grant you that it shoulsdn’t be looked at as fact, all kinds of crazy things happen in this game, but the signicance - the percentages - should be still matter and should be grasped and understood.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

re

I’m not going to rehash you’re use of statistics, because we’ve gone there before, but I think the incorrect use of ARL is one of the most pervasive problems in prospecting today.

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

OK JD

I think the incorrect use of ARL is one of the most pervasive probelms as well. More acurrately, the LACK of use of it.People who are 22, in AA, who are good enough to be slightly above average players there or, even good players, like Dee Gordon, Trayvon Robinson, Joe Benson, etc - don’t become good big league players. Even guys who were STARS in AA have a hard time.

It seems simple enough to understand but, we do seem to like to get our hopes up for no good reason I guess.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 5:45 PM EST up reply actions

Without even dwelling on the fact that you just lumped two guys whose OPS was 150+ points higher in with Dee Gordon, we really ought to be careful making “never” statements…
Hanley Ramirez’s Double-A line (admittedly at age 21, not 22) was 271/335/385.
Franklin Gutierrez was 22 and went 261/322/423 for Akron.
Yunel Escobar was 23 and went 264/361/346

by realitypolice on Feb 9, 2026 7:16 PM EST up reply actions

Sure

It happens occasionally, at that level of ability but, all those guys were better hitters than Gordon and most that good dont make it. I dont mind being innacuarte in saying “never”, more that it is the exception is enough for me.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, don't get me wrong

I think Dee Gordon is only slightly more likely to have an important big-league career than Luis Durango… but (a) he’s not close to the player (today or in the future) the other two guys you listed are, and (b) you’ve been really militant on the “never” thing over the last few days…

by realitypolice on Feb 9, 2026 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

Perhaps I have

. . . but to me the percentages on a player like nthat are inherant to the game and no lack of experience, rawness, or any other excuse makes a difference.

Now, the relative merits of Joe Benson or Trayvon Robinson, I guess that’s another topic then. Or is it?

I think people think Im being “ageist” or something but, even Joe Borchard was 22 and was quite a bit better than those guys in AA. Generally only really, really good minor league players make it in the majors and in that way, Benson, Gordon, and Robinson are all similar to me, though Benson and Robinson are better.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

i never liked boarchard's swing. and didn't he have a ridiculous K%?

and he wasn’t an athletic SS with plus defensive potential. not at all similar to Dee, except in age

by daveh33 on Feb 9, 2026 9:36 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, maybe, and yes

. . . those are sm saying Borchardller points though. I’m not saying that Gordon and Borchard are similar other than vital developmental factors of thier age (22) and League (The Southern League).

My point is that Borchard was one of the better players in the league, and Gordon was maybe, what, slightly above average?

It’s a simple point to grasp really, and I didn’t invent it.

Guys who are slightly above average in AA don’t become good major league players very often. If they do there is a good reason like

- injured and had a better record of hitting previously

- First season coming out of college

- etc and yes, you may interpret Gordon’s late star as a player as a reason here, only it just smells like an excuse. There’s nothing to suggest there is some great, hitting talent thier, is thier?

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 10:44 PM EST up reply actions

Acting like age and production are all that matters in prospecting is silly.

Why are you even here? Just read some MLE spreadsheets.

by PissedMick on Feb 9, 2026 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Funny you should say that

. . .because on the one hand, I have never said age and production are the only things that matter. There are lots of factors.

On the other, you could take any year, in almost any minor league and look at the youngest and best players in the league and you could make a decent list of the best prospects, in retrospect.

Most of us know the difference when we are looking at two, similar players in the minors and one is 19, and one is 28. Its just my view, from looking, and looking, at players through the years, that its a much, much bigger favtor than most think.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 10:32 PM EST up reply actions

Compare Gordon to another speedy, premium position player

Brett Gardners slash stats at age 22 in AA were .272/.352/.318. Gordon’s were .277/.332/.355. Or look at another Yankee outfielder - - Nick Swisher. His AA stats at age 22 were .230/.324/.380. I’m sure there are many other examples, as I only looked up a few players on one team. Your theory sucks.

by HeavyHitter on Feb 9, 2026 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

yours does

Brett Gardner, duly noted

Do you really think Nick Swisher is comparable to dee Gordon. Why don’t you use every similar player, like I did, not two. How is that better?

Swisher at AA was his first full season, after he had a .968 OPS in the Cal League. I didn’t just punch numbers together. I actually look at the players too.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 9, 2026 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

Gordon’s lack of production at a not-very-young age is a warning sign, but there are counterbalancing factors that almost no other players have. First off, he’s a shortstop with a potentially plus glove. Even if he doesn’t develop at all from here and posts around .650-.700 OPS in the bigs, he’s a major leaguer for a while. Second, he’s extremely athletic, so he’s going to get chances. Finally, he’s a latecomer to baseball and is developmentally more akin to a 20- or 21-year-old, which makes his performance compared to those at a comparable skill level much more impressive.

by limozeen on Feb 10, 2026 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

Good points

I will say this though . . the minor leagues, especially AA, is loaded with marginal hitting SS’s with potentially plus gloves.

Several of the guys comparable to him with the bat through the years have been very athletic, Freggie Guzman, Bernie castro, Rey Olmedo, etc . .

The final point is the most intersting, that his late start makes him more comparable to a 19-21 year old. Personally, I don;‘t buy it. If you take a kid who’s described as a “gym - or ballfield - rat” a fewe times, like Nick Franklin. He’s obviously played a ton of baseball to be so good at the age of 19.

Then you take Gordon who started, what, his Senior year in HS? Is that what were saying? If so, how is that going to HELP him? Aren’t those developmental years he can NEVER get back? I’m honestly asking. It just seems like a nice, excuse if he fails but, not anything thats going to help him. I could be wrong obviously but, I just don’t see it i guess.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 12:22 PM EST up reply actions

I have doubts on Jose Iglesias as well

The discussion here has been on Gordon, but I wonder if some of this doesn’t also apply to Iglesias. Iglesias wows scouts with his glove, but I’m not at all sold on the bat. Even back in Cuba, it seems he couldn’t buy a walk. Additionally, the 20% SO rate is high for a guy showing little power. And I don’t see him projecting to develop that much pop either. Without an ability to get on base, the good defense might make him a decent bench player, but not an MLB starter.

Compare to Tyler Pastornicky, who is the same age, and about the same size. Maybe scouts are less impressed with his tools, but his all around skills are easily superior, including the offensive end with a 11.2% walk rate last year, and a pretty solid contact rate.

Now, you can argue that one guy is understandably raw coming out of Cuba, whereas Pastornicky for HS spent four years at IMG baseball academy, which is about as elite as you can get as far as preperation for pro ball.

So if you could have one of these guys, do you take Tyler Pastornicky over Iglesias or Gordon? I don’t think he’s a future star, but I think Pastornicky could be a very solid player.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2026 1:23 PM EST up reply actions

Right

I have wondered what sepparates heccevaria from Iglesias as well. They look like very, very similar players, dont they? Exept one is a Red Sock, and one isnt.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

I think the biggest difference

is Hechevarria is regarded as a good defender at SS, while Iglesias is an elite defender. Pretty substantial difference there. Hechevarria is probably in the 126-200 range for me, but probably ahead of Dee Gordon. Just not a Gordon fan.

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by gatling on Feb 10, 2026 2:20 PM EST up reply actions

wow

these things we agree on are starting to add up. im getting worried :)

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

Hechavarria

Yeah, I’ve seen him ranked top 100 as well, though, and I was questioning that too.

For me, Machado and Profar are the top two. After that, I might take Billy Hamilton. Grant Green is up there on his bat alone. Christian Colon would make my list. Drew Cumberland is pretty good all around. Hak-Ju Lee makes it. Danny Espinoza.

I just don’t see a shortage there of guys with some skills on both sides of the ball. Even getting outside the top 100, I might take guys like Chris Nelson and Tim Beckham ahead of some of these all glove types.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2026 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

Lee

I think Lee being an above average bat in the MWL at age 19 (and very good - better than Profar in the NWL at age 18), shows he can hit.

The numbers dont jump out at you but, he walks, stings some doubles, runs, and hit pretty decently in a tough league to hit in.

Cumberland is EXTREMELY underrated IMO, but he so strongly reminds me of Brian Roberts that I think of him as a 2b.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

I agree 70%

I think the statistical side is not getting enough weight on some of the lists I’ve seen lately. Dee Gordon is one who seems to be somewhat over-rated. He does have nice tools and could end up a good defensive SS. But I wouldn’t have him a top 100 guy.

I also think Joe Benson is a decent prospect though. He had a RC+ of 137 in AA at 22. That’s not elite, maybe, but even including adjustments for age and level it still ranks in the top 100 performances in the minors last year for me. His tools seem to be about MLB average overall, nothing to complain about. The strikeout rate is a red flag, as it jumped to 27.2% this year at AA, but the 11.8% xbh rate there is a significant mitigating factor. Overall, I think this is a guy who might end up a 4th OF, but he still has a decent shot to be a starter.

That’s not quite a top 100 guy for me, but would at least be top 200 somewhere. If all you’re saying is Gordon is somewhere in that range, maybe I agree.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2026 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

I AM saying that

. . . only I’m going a step further. If you say a ballplayer is between the 100th and 200th best prospect in the minors, you are saying, essentially, that he isn’t a major leaguer of any real quality.

This is because of the facvt, that none of us can change, of how many quality major leaguers are on any given list. Since even the #1 player on an average list, from year to year, has some struggles, we shouldn’t have to imagine what marginal minor league hitters will look like in the majors.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

Well there's some uncertainty too though

I’ll agree that the median projection for those guys in the 100-200 range is less than an average MLB regular. But there’s enough uncertainty that some of those guys will end up being decent.

But too many people do end up dreaming on upside that looks non-existant for all practical purposes. So some of those guys who project to say, a second division starter (below average regular), with a good probability of that, do get under-rated at times.

But, I think you can take that too far in the other direction as well. Case in point, the recent Project Prospect list, where he has some guys in the top 100 who are projected as below average regulars. I think that’s taking it too far, and I’d probably drop every one of his C-, “very low risk” guys for other players.

Still, I think he has a point, and he might well end up being closer to the truth than the BA or Keith Law lists.

by acerimusdux on Feb 10, 2026 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

True

I think the answer may be “neither”. I’d go with youth and upside myself probably. I think young, unpside players are also “safer” most of the time as well unless we are talking 15-16 year old players.

What I mean by neuither is that If we are choosing between a safer, low upside player like PP likes or a pie in the sky, young player like Law or BA, much of the time neither of the turn out to be anything. The majors have a way of weeding out almost everybody who has any kind of major flaw right?

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

Just wanted to add

That, YES, there is uncertainty but, for me the name of the game is decreasing the uncertainty. If i did a list from 100- 200 there will be some who make it, yes. The idea is to nail the ones who make it and rank them in the top 50 or so.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." - Rickey Henderson

by casejud on Feb 10, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

Jason Cole also

had a best tools post recently. (behind the paywall) Profar was ranked the best hitter for average and 3rd best hitter for discipline. That’s a nice mix.

What if something happens?!?
What could happen to an Old Fashioned?

by t ball on Feb 9, 2026 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

hit post too soon

Alex Eisenberg also broke down some at bats last year and had lots of praise for Profar’s approach even on at bats that didn’t end with him on base.

What if something happens?!?
What could happen to an Old Fashioned?

by t ball on Feb 9, 2026 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

I just want to take this opportunity to pat myself on the back again for having Profar #60 overall LAST year

/fistpump

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by alskor on Feb 9, 2026 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

check what I had him at for me?

I lost the list when I got a new computer :)

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

hmm found one copy...

I could have swore I had him on my final list…

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 5:33 PM EST up reply actions

got it

100, you win.

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by JDSussman on Feb 9, 2026 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

IMO

We on this site tend to lose track of players recovering from injuries. Probably defensible, given that most of us don’t have insider info and/or get to see these players in person. Understandable to be risk-averse on this when we have no new info, but it does seem like sometimes it’s just FOTS (Forgotten Old Toy Syndrome).

Note that Rogers and Friedrich are on Piliere’s Top-100, but haven’t even gotten testers here. We’ve also largely ignored guys like FDLS and Casey Crosby, despite the fact that their stuff doesn’t appear to have suffered (yet) from the injuries that they appear to have recovered from (I realize the verdict is still out as to whether Crosby has recovered). I’m sure there are more we’re forgetting, just like McGee a couple years ago.

This doesn’t explain our undue fascination with Jared Parker. Not sure why he seems to be the exception around here.

by siddfynch on Feb 9, 2026 2:05 PM EST reply actions

Crosby

Love his upside, but it’s really hard to rank him when, despite no structural damage, he couldn’t pitch without pain last year. The last I read was that the Tigers were hoping that the problem would go away by spring.

I don’t mind being cautious with injured prospects.

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by jar75 on Feb 9, 2026 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

"cautious with injured prospects"

Well, sure, I completely agree. Health status should be a key variable to assess, just like tools, etc. But I think we sometimes even forget to have the discussion.

Here’s the link to the fanshot I just posted on Crosby. It suggests he was back throwing pain-free last fall, with no drop in velocity and improved mechanics. I remain skeptical, but this is the kind of thing that merits discussion regarding the 2011 placement of a former top prospect.

by siddfynch on Feb 9, 2026 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Link

Shoot, I can never get this formatting right.

https://www.minorleagueball.com/fanshots

by siddfynch on Feb 9, 2026 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks for the link

The Crosby health links have been few and far between over the last year. He will shoot way up the list if he is indeed healthy.

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by jar75 on Feb 9, 2026 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

I certainly have a few fantasy teams that hope it's true about Crosby

I think with Parker, the fact that we had info on him throwing without pain and at good velocity late last season plays a big part in his ranking. He was looking like a top 10-20 prospect before he got hurt, something most of those other guys can’t really say. We have to take them on a case by case basis I think. With that in mind:

Rogers: Missed all of 2007 and 2008. Pitched 65 innings in 2009, 126 in 2010. Could stick as a starter, might be best in the pen, could see his arm fall off. All seem like plausible outcomes in 2011. Hard to be too confident there I think.

Friedrich: Elbow issues two years in a row, struggled against better hitters in AA last year. I still like him quite a bit, using our community list I’d take him over quite a few of the names in the tester pool/rotation. Unfortunately I’m still fighting for pitchers I like as top 60-70 overall prospects to make the list. It also seems like maybe more than just the community is down on him, BA lists him as a #3 starter in his writeup-I think it was a #2 starter last year. Change still needs to develop to complement his two plus pitches.

FDLS: Only 253 innings pitched over 5 years in the minors. Would probably need two years in the minors at least to have a shot at starting, and he’s 25 this year. Pretty much just a reliever, so healthy or not the ceiling isn’t there.

Crosby: Love this kid, hope he’s healthy. Was in my top 50 last year, and I expected him to be top 20 with a strong, healthy 2010. Didn’t happen. The report you link to is very promising, and he’d fly back up my rankings if he can stay healthy. That’s still a pretty big if though.

I agree with the FOTS comment for sure, not just as it applies to injured players but just in general. We seem to move onto the next big thing much too quickly, we don’t give many of these guys a chance to get anywhere before we jump off the bandwagon.

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by gatling on Feb 9, 2026 4:10 PM EST up reply actions