Top Prospects of 2002

by John Sickels on Feb 11, 2026 12:37 PM EST in News

Hank Blalock, 3B: 78 career win shares
Josh Beckett, RHP: 73 career win shares
Sean Burroughs, 3B: 38 career win shares
Carlos Pena, 1B: 71 career win shares
Wilson Betemit, SS: 22 career win shares
Dennis Tankersley, RHP: Ruined by control problems
Mark Teixeira, 3B: 104 career win shares
Juan Cruz, RHP: 24 career win shares
Mark Prior, RHP: 48 career win shares
Nick Johnson, 1B: 80 career win shares
Mike Cuddyer, 3B: 60 career win shares
Austin Kearns, OF: 84 career win shares
Angel Berroa, SS: 40 career win shares, Age-Gate and plate discipline big problems
Jake Peavy, RHP: 78 career win shares
Kelly Johnson, SS: 28 career win shares
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: 46 career win shares
Hee Seop Choi, 1B: 26 career win shares
Gabe Gross, OF: 19 career win shares, a useful role player and I think he still has a breakout season in him
Brandon Claussen, LHP: 6 career win shares, hampered by injuries
Boof Bonser, RHP: 11 career win shares
Joe Borchard, OF: Tools bust
Jayson Werth, C: 38 career win shares
Ben Broussard, 1B: 52 career win shares
Joe Mauer, C: 82 career win shares
Rafael Soriano, RHP: 24 career win shares
Jeff Heaverlo, RHP: Ruined by injuries
Corwin Malone, LHP: Ruined by injuries and control problems
Brandon Phillips, SS: 37 career win shares
Miguel Cabrera, SS: 127 career win shares
Chin-Feng Chen, OF: Triple-A slugger
Dewon Brazelton, RHP: 2 win shares, lack of breaking ball major problem
Drew Henson, 3B: Tools Bust
Kenny Baugh, RHP: Ruined by injuries
Justin Morneau, 1B: 65 career win shares
John Buck, C: 31 career win shares
Chris Burke, SS: 21 career win shares
Jimmy Journell, RHP: Ruined by injuries
Xavier Nady, 1B: 40 career win shares
Adam Wainwright, RHP: 24 career win shares
Chris Snelling, OF: 3 win shares; injuries a huge factor
Morgan Ensberg, 3B: 74 career win shares
Carlos Hernandez, LHP: decent year in 2002, then injuries
Brad Thomas, LHP: Control problems and injuries
Aaron Heilman, RHP: 26 career win shares
Jose Reyes, SS: 87 career win shares
Marlon Byrd, OF: 44 career win shares
Seung Song, RHP: Did OK in Triple-A but stuff declined and he never got a chance in the majors
John-Ford Griffin, OF: Triple-A slugger
Kurt Ainsworth, RHP: Pitched well in the majors in '02 and '03, then blew out his arm
Abraham Nunez, OF: Age-Gate

As you can see, we're at the point now where the youngest players on this list are still building their careers and we have to see how things add up further down the road. The biggest failures are obvious, though.

Injury casualties remain an issue with the pitchers. Tankersley was a huge disappointment, due to command problems but there were also problems with his work ethic and personality according to many observers. Berroa was an Age-Gate guy who was never as good as he appeared when this list was made, being two years older than we knew at the time. He did win ROY but never built on it and his weaknesses eventually caught up with him.

One thing that always bugged me was ranking Juan Cruz one notch ahead of Mark Prior. I did that because Prior hadn't pitched professionally yet while Cruz had already shown he could do well in the majors. It's looked stupid for a few years, but it's entirely possible that Cruz may end up having the longer career, if not as impressive at the peak of course.

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lightning rod

I see from the earlier threads that Choi is STILL a lightning rod for controversy.

Considering how 2007 worked out for Pena and Cust, perhaps all is not lost for Choi?
Nah... he didn't play particularly well in Korea from what I hear....

It's really odd - he put up an OPS+ of 106 in 1086 MLB PAs (112 when not pinch hitting) and is considered a complete bust by many. Obviously a 1B has to hit better than that to be a good everyday player- on average 1Bs in 2007 had an ops+ of 116.

But clearly his MLB #s were close, 10 more points of OPS+ and...

Choi's problem was that he was slow and K'd too much, and like most slow guys who K too much, looks terrible in a slump- and two of his managers didn't like him- Baker didn't like him because he wasn't a veteran and Tracy didn't like him, bcause Tracy was fighting a war with his GM, and saw Choi as being said GM's pet project.

Anyway, a 106 OPS+ in 1000+ PAs says that Choi WAS an MLB caliber player, maybe not an above average one, and certainly not a star, but certainly not a "bust"- Drew Henson was a bust.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 11, 2026 12:58 PM EST reply actions

yeah

i think i read choi put up close to a .900 OPS in korea. i'm not all that familiar with the korean leagues but i believe that's near top of the league type production. maybe he has a bad taste from MLB but he's still young enough that we may see him back one day. or he could be content with being a superstar in his home country. sometimes stuff just doesn't work out, for a variety of reasons.

by larry on Feb 11, 2026 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

Korean League

I've been defending Choi and will continue to do so, but Korean League pitchers throw their hard stuff in the low-mid 80s, generally speaking. He better be a star there. Also, I would say that Korea doesn't really have superstars for baseball, as it just isn't all that popular of a sport there, so inasmuch as he might want to be home, I don't think superstardom will be the thing keeping him there.

by MontrealMets on Feb 12, 2026 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

Oh Hee Seop....

I loved that friggin guy...if he played anything besides 1B he would still be in this league...but you're right...never had a manager that liked him...never had anyone who can do anything about that actually do something about it.

Choi and Prior...two huge reasons why I will never have an ounce of positive feelings towards Dusty Baker.

And please no one start up on the "Baker didn't ruin Prior" debate...it's almost 5 years old.

by SenorGato88 on Feb 11, 2026 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

well Baker

certainly didn't ruin Choi.
He played OK, but not as well as Eric Karros (and the team was a playoff team, so that mattered), and got a concussion and missed oodles of time and predictably sucked after the concussion.

The cubs then flipped him for D-Lee.

How is this the Cubs fault?

Also, you ever think that maybe it is Choi's fault every org he has even been in did not like him?

by nms on Feb 11, 2026 5:29 PM EST up reply actions

Fault

Karros was 35 coming off two years where he put up an OPS+ of 84 and 96.
He put up an OPS+ of 103 for the Cubs (below Choi's career avearge)

Choi was 24, was widely regarded as the Cubs best position prospect- coming off a year where he hit .287/.405/.513 in AAA.

He was losing playing time to Karros before the injury- before it was clear that the Cubbies- comig off a sub .500 year were serious contenders

and Karros sucked in the 2nd half as well (.234/.273/.369) while Choi rotted on the bench (all of 50 at bats) even after his return.

Baker's use of Choi was disgraceful, a foreshadowing of the breathtakingly incompetent management that virtually all Cubs fans would come to "appreciate" from Baker in 2004 onward.

Flipping Choi for D.Lee was a good move though. But Hendry gets the credit for that.

Choi played fine in Florida, the was jerked around in LA because his manager used him as a pawn in Tracy's campaign against his own GM.

Then Choi stopped hitting, and is probably out of MLB for good, but his career OPS+ is 106, just one point below the immortal Eric Karros' 107.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 12, 2026 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

Dusty Baker

So Homer Bailey is going to be throwing 85 in a few years and Votto is going to be playing Canadian indie ball. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks the Reds should fire him before letting him get on the field. Dusty Baker is Example A of the idiotic hiring policies of most organizations.

by MontrealMets on Feb 12, 2026 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Lets see

its Bakers fault that Choi wasn't especially talented at baseball?

sure..

by nms on Feb 12, 2026 4:38 PM EST up reply actions

you know...

Maybe the Cubs were able to contend BECAUSE they played Karros during the 1st half? Karros' career OPS of 107 includes his decline phase. And that's still better than Choi's 100 OPS+ in 2003. (In fairness, Choi had a bit more OBP, but Karros' superior SLG does offset it.)

I won't argue that Choi was mishandled, but I also don't think he was very well suited for the big leagues. He's probably something like 250/360/480 with 160K's if given a chance to develop, and that's not that great for a MLB 1b who doesn't have a GG.

by GuyinNY on Feb 12, 2026 11:43 PM EST up reply actions

+1 on Choi

well said

by bleedjaxblue on Feb 13, 2026 12:02 AM EST up reply actions

Tankersley

A guy in my roto keeper league was high on Tank, drafted him in 2003, activated him and...
was "rewarded" with one of the worst starts in at least 50 years...

I remember reading an article after that game- that such a catastrophic start could psychologically ruin a young pitcher-

actually I always thought he was injured, but looking at his minor league numbers- he pitched well in AAA that year- and the next- but from 2003-04-05-06-07 he kept repeating AAA and his K rate kept dropping- not cratering in any specific year-

I'd say its hard to make the leap from AAA to MLB when your stuff is just dribbling away on you.

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 11, 2026 1:06 PM EST reply actions

Amazing how few pitchers have contributed

Name    Position    Win Shares
Miguel Cabrera    SS    127
Mark Teixeira    3B    104
Jose Reyes    SS    87
Austin Kearns    OF    84
Joe Mauer    C    82
Nick Johnson    1B    80
Hank Blalock    3B    78
Jake Peavy    RHP    78
Morgan Ensberg    3B    74
Josh Beckett    RHP    73
Carlos Pena    1B    71
Justin Morneau    1B    65
Mike Cuddyer    3B    60
Ben Broussard    1B    52
Mark Prior    RHP    48
Adrian Gonzalez    1B    46
Marlon Byrd    OF    44
Angel Berroa    SS    40
Xavier Nady    1B    40
Sean Burroughs    3B    38
Jayson Werth    C    38
Brandon Phillips    SS    37
John Buck    C    31
Kelly Johnson    SS    28
Hee Seop Choi    1B    26
Aaron Heilman    RHP    26
Juan Cruz    RHP    24
Rafael Soriano    RHP    24
Adam Wainwright    RHP    24
Wilson Betemit    SS    22

"Dying is no big deal. The least of us will manage that. Living is the trick." - Red Smith

by finman on Feb 11, 2026 1:41 PM EST reply actions

Well

That may tell you more about the metric being used to measure success than about the equality of any actual contribution. Sometimes we take these stats as gospel, when in fact they have serious flaws as metrics. Remember the GWRBI?

That, and the possibility that some years are better for pitching than hitting (and vice-versa).

gogotabata: "I'm like the biggest Walden fan around here (adult division)..."

by siddfynch on Feb 11, 2026 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Not the case Syd

Comparing win shares to GWRBI is kinda inacurrate man. Take a look at that list and tell if me if it isnt a good, general list of value that those players have contributed in the big leagues pal. The stat does its job almost perfectly.

Your second point is completely valid though but, so is the guy you you were responding too... pitchers arent doing as well from the list. That could just be a reflection of a weakness in JS's evaluations of pitchers too at that point in 2002.

by casejud on Feb 12, 2026 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Rangers:

I didn't follow prospects back then, but I see the Rangers have 3 of the top 7 on this list. How does their system now compare with their system then? Seems like it was much more top heavy back then, with not nearly as much depth. Is that about right??

by rothe on Feb 11, 2026 2:26 PM EST reply actions

Ainsworth

Didn't he have some odd injury like a break between his arm and shoulder blade? I'd classify that injury as "Freak" and give him a bit of a pass.

Really liked the way that kit pitched too...

I'm proud to have seen #756

by Azantor on Feb 11, 2026 2:32 PM EST reply actions

same here

he competed well. i can't remember what the injury was, i assumed it was TJ.

by flipgatey3 on Feb 14, 2026 2:51 AM EST up reply actions

Question

I'll say this again, because I didn't get a response in the last top 50 list.

Did you not do letter grades yet? Looking at some prospect retros and the last time you did these reviews in 2005, it looks like you did. Because honestly I would rather see them to compare and rate, instead of or in addition to just win shares (which to me are of dubious value in evaluating players because of the nature of how win shares are calculated).

by AucklandGM on Feb 11, 2026 4:19 PM EST reply actions

these were all B+ or higher players

i would think how he ranked the players numerically would be more helpful in comparison than the letter grade because you're getting more, not less, information. and i'm not sure why you'd want to get rid of win shares. their grade from six years ago doesn't really help much in evaluating how they've done so far, no matter what you think of win shares as a metric.

by larry on Feb 11, 2026 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, but

having both the list and the grade is important for me because it is always interesting to see where John places the line between A/A-/B+ to show who he thinks is elite and who is not. The grades are just labels, but they are a big part of the book and discussions about it. I never claimed that the letter grades help us evaluate how players have done so far; don't put words in my mouth. They would be there for the purposes of evaluating how accurate the original ratings and tiers of players were and what we can learn from how they worked out. Isn't that something that is worth doing? The problem I have with win shares is that they are trying to fit an individual's performance into the performance of the team, regardless of how good the team was, which can affect the total number of win shares available for a player. I don't know what exact version of win shares John is using, so I don't know whether that is adjusted for or not (some wins shares do). I also never said we shouldn't have any kind of evaluative statistic or summary of a player at all on a list such as this, just that I'm not fond of win shares. Though I think for most players we don't need win shares or any other compilation statistic to tell us who is a star, who is a bust, and who is somewhere in between.

by AucklandGM on Feb 11, 2026 11:27 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

Win shares may be the dumbest metric to use here. Am I supposed to think that Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns or Hank Blalock have been more successful than Jake Peavy? Just post the old list. We're big boys and know who's good and who isn't.

"The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns." -mckeeno

by PujolsJunkie on Feb 11, 2026 5:50 PM EST reply actions

wow

slamming both john sickels and bill james in the same post. well done.

i think borrowing from a churchill quote is appropriate here: win shares is the dumbest metric to use here. except for all the others.

by larry on Feb 12, 2026 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

I think...

he was referring to the fact that Win Shares value hitters more than pitchers, instead of equally. I don't know if there will ever be a stat that can compare the two correctly since everyone has a different idea of how valuable an SP is compared to a position player. But, at the same time, I am not sure anyone would take Kearns over Peavy if given a choice of the two.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 12, 2026 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

i'm well aware of the criticism you refer to

"dumbest" seemed a bit strong, however. if we're all big boys, as the poster posited, i'm sure we're all big enough to be aware of the limitations of win shares. i'd also think we were big enough to choose words a bit more carefully. john is obviously trying to do as good a comparison between the players as possible. i find it useful enough. if the poster doesn't, he should just ignore it. it's not like there's a way that's particularly better to do the comparison.

by larry on Feb 12, 2026 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Not everyone

Several agree that a pitcher is more valuable, some that a hitter is more valuable, and some think they are equal. There are really only 3 opinions right?

It misses the point anyways. Nobody is saying pick Kearns over Peavy. Its just a good way to look at the general value of players and works very well. To just harp that Peavy has been more valuable than Kearns (he has) and to say the stat is useless is a perversion of what the information is trying to say. In simpler terms its called "getting too technical".

by casejud on Feb 12, 2026 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Joe Blanton

Just because I am so annoyed with Reds fans screaming about trading Cueto or Bailey for Blanton...

I count 3 people in the top 10 who have more value than Blanton.

by novaoakland on Feb 11, 2026 8:14 PM EST reply actions

Dont want to win eh?

Blanton had 893 ab's against him and allowed a .301 OBP. Thats a HELL of a pitcher. I have no idea when people on here will start getting real about Joe Blanton. He's young, durable, good, and makes the Reds a better team.

I might give up one of those kids for blanton even IF i thought they'd be better than Joe someday because they WONT this year, probably wont next year and, might never be.

Don't get me wrong I like bailey and Cueto too but, time rolls on baby. Griffey and everybody else are tired of losing. Aren't you?

by casejud on Feb 12, 2026 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

blanton is undervalued

and i'll definitely take cueto/frazier (and hope he can stick at ss...i'm through with croz...if not he's chavy's replacement) and a lower-level guy for smokin' joe.

by flipgatey3 on Feb 14, 2026 2:53 AM EST up reply actions

the other 7

And 7 players who are not...

by LindInMoskva on Feb 12, 2026 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Good question about win shares

Kearns has 6 years at an OPS+ of 111
Peavy has 6 years at an ERA+ of 119

Kearns plays excellent defense in RF.

Peavy has played in 172 games, Kearns in 676.

I think Win Shares goes a pretty decent job of measuring a player's contribution to the team and don't mind one bit that John uses them.

by doubledribble @ Minor League Ball on Feb 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST reply actions

Chen

arrrrrrragh. hey at least he's destroying the league back home in Taiwan. the numbers he's putting up is nutty. .347/.442/.628 47 dingers in 760ish PA 31SB only 4 CS.. yikes.

Such a shame arrragh. too much time spent playing for the national team and what not.

by RollingWave on Feb 11, 2026 9:31 PM EST reply actions

2002 debuts

Here is my list of successful guys that debuted later in 2002 but didn't make the top 50 list:
Carl Crawford
Mark Ellis
Chone Figgins
Travis Hafner
Bill Hall
Orlando Hudson
Victor Martinez
Freddy Sanchez
Erik Bedard
Aaron Harang
John Lackey
Francisco Rodriguez
Brad Lidge

by LindInMoskva on Feb 13, 2026 1:48 PM EST reply actions

fair to blame him

maybe, maybe not.

WRT Wood, Yes Wood was stubborn and refused to change his mechanics, but my Cubs fan friends who are more familiar with it than me, have mentioned repeatedly that what got them about Dusty was he took Wood, a pitcher with a known injury history - and repeatedly his first or 2nd start after coming off the DL or an injury timeout would let Wood throw 100+ pitches without a second thought -
no other manager (except possibly the late great Jeff Torborg) "eases" a recovering pitcher back into a full workload quite like that...

Prior? I used to blame Baker, I also used to read articles questioning Prior ability/willingness to pitch threw pain-
since his surgery I've read articles suggesting that Prior's pain tolerance rather than being too low, was too high- he kept trying to pitch through an injury, never healed and just about everything possible in his shoulder started to fray over time...

by Johnny Ruin on Feb 14, 2026 10:46 AM EST reply actions