MiLB 8/21
Lets Get a head start today! 300 comments!? I'll edit in probables as I hear them. In other news former Giants 1st round pick Jerome Williams will start today against the Orioles. A nice little comeback story for everyone. In other news former Giants 1st round pick Jerome Williams will start today against the Orioles. A nice little comeback story for everyone. In other news former Giants 1st round pick Jerome Williams will start today against the Orioles. A nice little comeback story for everyone.
Luis “The Mayor” Jimenez is pushing himself into the realm of prospectdom by hitting .303/.345/.510 this year with 16 HR, 82 RBI, and 36 doubles! This is insanely impressive when you consider the park he plays in. For reference, Mark Trumbo only hit 15 home runs in his full year at Arkansas! I’d be willing to bet a third of those 2B may turn into HR at other parks. That would leave him at 28 HR and the year is still not done. While that is purely hypothetical, he has that kind of power and I’m willing to call this a breakout season. The only thing that may hold him back is his BB rate, but that fits in on the Angels haha
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Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino
Both promoted to Lansing.
by TwoEyesForAnEye on Aug 21, 2025 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
excited to see what they can do.
I have decided to pilot the Syndergaard hype blimp!
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
wow Syndergaard is rising quickly. Excited to see what they can do in Lansing.
by Sniderlover on Aug 21, 2025 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Damnit
That means I won’t be able to watch them pitch on MiLB.tv.
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by Jeff Reese on Aug 21, 2025 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Luis “The Mayor” Jimenez is pushing himself into the realm of prospectdom by hitting .303/.345/.510 this year with 16 HR, 82 RBI, and 36 doubles! This is insanely impressive when you consider the park he plays in. For reference, Mark Trumbo only hit 15 home runs in his full year at Arkansas! I’d be willing to bet a third of those 2B may turn into HR at other parks. That would leave him at 28 HR and the year is still not done. While that is purely hypothetical, he has that kind of power and I’m willing to call this a breakout season. The only thing that may hold him back is his BB rate, but that fits in on the Angels haha
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
Definitely
nice to see him keep doing it at an age appropriate, high minor level. As you say, still doesn’t walk, but he doesn’t strike out a lot either. How’s the defense at 3B?
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
good thats why Im confused by the poll
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 22, 2025 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha! Just checked the results. Tough crowd!
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Some fun rangers going tonight
Martin Perez
Miguel de los Strikeout
Robbie Ross
>mfw
by MonkeyEpoxy on Aug 21, 2025 3:53 PM EDT reply actions
profile on either dls or Ross?
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
here's one for Ross
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/5/3/highest-ceilings-in-the-rangers-system-robbie-ross-17.html
i just know that MDLS has a 89-92 FB and a plus-plus change
>mfw
by MonkeyEpoxy on Aug 21, 2025 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
ross
Saw him pitch in the Texas League playoffs last year, a few quick notes on him. Good low 90s sinker, decent slider, workable changeup with solid potential. Small and was already physically maxed out last year. Pitches with an aggressive streak. Struggled with his command a bit from the stretch.
I know there are some who continue to view him as a reliever, and he’d be a nice option there as a sinker/slider guy; I believe Jason Parks (whose report is linked above) has said in the last couple of months that he continues to believe Ross’ future is in the pen. As a rotation piece, he’s a 3-4 starter (depending on command) who is going to have to deal with the bias against small pitchers.
by mrkupe on Aug 21, 2025 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
7 IP | 3 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 0 BB | 6 SO
So far in AA.
25.1 IP | 20 H | 8 R | 8 ER | 2 BB | 23 SO
by Tex2044 on Aug 21, 2025 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Perez and MDLS didn't do well
Perez:
2 IP | 8 H | 6 ER | 1 BB | 1 K
MDLS:
3.1 IP | 9 H | 7 ER | 2 BB | 4 K
>mfw
by MonkeyEpoxy on Aug 21, 2025 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Tyler Matzek
7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 9 K
Would have been better had they not run him out there for the 7th, after sitting for 45 minutes as Ashville scored 7 runs the half inning before. He ended up giving up a double, a home run, and another walk all in the 7th. Still pretty solid though. Another outing with low walks and high strikeouts is always a good thing.
Alanna Rizzo is my dream girl.
by Cargo's Ball Sack5 on Aug 21, 2025 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
Nice
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 4:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yay!
Matzek’s “resurgence” (he’s got a long way to go, obviously) is one of my favorite stories in milb right now.
by PissedMick on Aug 21, 2025 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Matzek in 4 August starts:
27IP 19H 9ER 13BB 29K
by PissedMick on Aug 21, 2025 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Zack Wheeler
5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, now has a 23/5 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with the Mets.
Also Brandon Nimmo went 2-5 (2 singles) in center field in the GCL.
by Metfan on Aug 21, 2025 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
Extremely excited for both. Nimmo has me giddy
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 4:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
possibly one of the better moves
the mets made in yearsssss…besides getting rid of minaya
by miraclemets on Aug 21, 2025 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Delgado got rocked
3.2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 SO, 3 HRA
Such an op and down year for Delgado. Coming off of his 3 best starts of the season, all between AAA and majors, and he goes out and lays an egg.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
MLB?
Or in AAA
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 4:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Billy Hamilton's quest for 100 continues
1-4, 2 SB (86)
Also made an error and struck out twice.
by TwoEyesForAnEye on Aug 21, 2025 4:44 PM EDT reply actions
Williams with a shutout through 5!
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 5:09 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Give me a break. He’s pitching against Baltimore. While they do have some MLB guys, they are nothing more than a Triple A squad now. Actually, I’ll be nice, Quadruple A.
by hrv2010 on Aug 21, 2025 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That wasn’t a shot at you even though it might look and sound like it.
by hrv2010 on Aug 21, 2025 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
haha
Its a cool story! Feel good for the guy
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
1 run in 7 innnings now
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
OMG
I tihnk it’s actually Dontrelle Willis wearing an Angels uniform.
by BryceHarper on Aug 21, 2025 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That's presumptuous
for all you know, I’m someone of color.
by BryceHarper on Aug 21, 2025 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The Bryce Harper I know was a white
probably a different guy though.
Also, it was sarcasmic.
by dnc on Aug 21, 2025 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
shouldn't it have the
double @, then?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions
no
no your not
"This has got to hurt"
"The Mets are going to be a powerhouse in 2010."
by Da.aron on Aug 21, 2025 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
conjunctions, correctly used, can help you take over the world.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Robbie Grossman
2/4 2B, HR, K
Can’t wait to see how he does in AA
by gghulsebus on Aug 21, 2025 6:09 PM EDT reply actions
Love
him. Power’s starting to come around.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 21, 2025 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
That was game 2...
he was 0/4 with a K in game one
by gghulsebus on Aug 21, 2025 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
For the sake of my fantasy team he needs a promotion
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Aug 21, 2025 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions
if you're relying on Viciedo
then you’ve got a pretty bad team, no?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Jon Bachanov with another encouraging start
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 K, 0 BB 5:4 GO:FO
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 21, 2025 6:44 PM EDT reply actions
Still can't figure why the Angels let this guy go...
It’s even worse considering their lack of organizational SP prospects
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Aug 21, 2025 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
it was definitely something
non-baseball related.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 21, 2025 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
speculation or was there a report on this?
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Aug 21, 2025 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
speculation
because no one cuts a young first round draft pick without a reason. he had a tiny sample of poor performance 1 year, but that can’t be the reason.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 21, 2025 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Very probably because the Angels completely refused to give him a chance to be a starting pitcher.
by WrenFGun on Aug 22, 2025 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
leads the league in slugging as a middle infielder FWIW
go long with extenze...i do
by angelsownredsux on Aug 21, 2025 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
just work on his eye!!
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
A few Pirates guys:
Marte: 1-5, 2B
Lorin: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Couple of guys that could use a promotion (though they probably won’t happen until next year, given how late we are in this year).
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
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by wg1of5 on Aug 21, 2025 7:46 PM EDT reply actions
Jean Segura
played his 2nd game back from injury today at rookie ball. anyone know what his injury was? is he stil a future studly base stealer?
by tuna411 on Aug 21, 2025 8:27 PM EDT reply actions
Hammy, i believe.
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by JD Sussman on Aug 21, 2025 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
is he still a future studly base stealer?
possibly. who knows at this point? his .276/.343/.428 line in HiA isn’t all that impressive. But he’s only 20 and he’s got the tools.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget he hit 344/394/500 in April
It seems pretty clear that he was injured for most of May, which has dragged down his overall stat line. He missed a week in the middle of the moth before coming back toward the end of the month before shutting it down until this week.
Does missing the majority of the season with a hamstring injury suck? Absolutely, especially for a speedy guy looking to establish himself at SS after moving over from 2B. I’m not writing this guy off yet. Hopefully he plays in a fall league to make up for lost time.
by Guyute on Aug 22, 2025 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Lavarnway
my daily plug for him. 2-4 with a 2B and RBI. Missed a 2 run homer by inches.
by noelman31 on Aug 21, 2025 8:33 PM EDT reply actions
J.R. Graham
6 IP, 4 H, 1 R (0 HR), 8 K, 1 BB - I think this guy was a steal in the 4th round. He was drafted as a reliever, now getting a chance to start and doing quite well. He’s got really good stuff.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 21, 2025 8:51 PM EDT reply actions
Jarrod Parker
“Going to watch my buddy Collmenter throw while I unpack and prepare for a nice 10 game homestand lets go #baybears what’s our magic number?”
@JarrodBParker
by iam2asian4u on Aug 21, 2025 9:07 PM EDT reply actions
Pfffffft
Like HRs actually mean he has some power. Keith Law has told me time and time again that his best case scenario is Juan Pierre or Ben Revere, so I have to believe it.
by RynoRooter on Aug 21, 2025 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Kelly
Very good start.
5 IP 4 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 4 SO 91-63 pitches-strikes 10 swinging strikes 3 swinging strike outs
by pickapeppa on Aug 21, 2025 9:17 PM EDT reply actions
sometimes I think he is overrated
But then I think he might be underrated.
by John Black on Aug 22, 2025 11:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Since the poll got a resounding "NO" may I ask why not? He was a C+ to start the year, and has performed better than ever while moving up a level into an extreme pitchers park.. What more do you want?
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 9:22 PM EDT reply actions
"Jarrod Parker A+, everyone else no grade!"- iam2asian4u
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
what about the other 78 people...
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
i voted B-
John had some guys who were B- who are pretty meh. This guy was a C+ and, with his improvement, looks like a B-.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Mike Olt
1-1, 3 BB so far
3-4, 2B, HR, 4 BB in his two games back in high-A
bro is coming back from where he left off
>mfw
by MonkeyEpoxy on Aug 21, 2025 9:29 PM EDT reply actions
wow... kid can mash
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 21, 2025 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Paul Clemens
6 IP / 6 H / 3 R / 2 BB / 5 K
Strengthening his case as the best piece the Astros got back for Bourn.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 21, 2025 9:43 PM EDT reply actions
I think Schafer was clearly the best piece
He’s basically already a league average player with as much upside as either Clemens or Oberholtzer
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Clemens a lot
Just a gut feeling kinda thing. You might be right rationally speaking, but I just have that sense (which could be totally wrong) about Clemens that he might be a pretty underlooked guy due to the situation he came from.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 21, 2025 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I see a guy who isn't guaranteed to be a useful SP and with the upside of a #3/#4
Unless Schafer doesn’t improve at all and Clemens reaches his reasonable ceiling, I just don’t see a way for Clemens to be the better player. He’s mildly interesting but the stuff isn’t great and the numbers are merely decent (110/53 K/BB). Then again I’ve always been partial to Schafer.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Clemens' fastball reportedly touches 96mph with above avg movement
So, I think his stuff might be underrated. I see a guy who could become a strong MoR arm with some refinement to his command and secondary pitches
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 21, 2025 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
So he's a guy with an above average fastball, with at best plus potential
Who needs work on both his command and secondary pitches. That sounds exactly like a guy who profiles as having a #3/#4 as a reasonable ceiling. Unless everything breaks right (gets two secondaries to above-average to plus and gets command to above-average to plus) that sounds just about right.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Spent a few minutes looking back over scouting reports
I was wrong, most places it says he actually touches 97mph on his fastball, and his curve flashes above average.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 21, 2025 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Where are you getting 97 mph from?
I know Mike Newman mentioned that the stadium gun had him that high 2 months ago, but he followed it up by mentioning the gun is usually 1-2 mph hot based on personal experience. I haven’t read any other recent reports, but if you’ve got some I may reconsider.
The fact that his curve flashes above average isn’t exactly going to win me over. That basically tells me that if he can ever get the consistency down (he’s 23 already, I’m not sure I’d bet on it at this point) he could have an above-average pitch there. He needs at least one secondary at that level to even reach the #3/#4 level I mentioned earlier.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
BA
[Clemens] Has as much raw ability as any pitcher in the Braves organization… when he’s on, he can run it up to 97 mph
Also, in BA’s trade analysis of the Bourn deal:
His fastball is his bread-and-butter pitch, and some scouts don’t hesitate to throw a future 70 grade on the heater. Clemens typically works between 93-96 mph with good sink, and he has the utmost confidence in his fastball. He also has the makings of three interesting offspeed pitches, and he mixes them well. His curveball, a hard downer with good bite, grades as a potentially above-average offering, and his slider is another quality pitch with good deception and bite. His changeup is still in its infancy but shows good sinking action and has induced hitters to chase.
If he “typically works” 93-96 one would assume he occasionally touches 97. Also, if that report is accurate and he averages, say, 94mph with good sink, that would be one of the best fastballs among SP in the majors today.
List of qualified starting pitcher on FanGraphs leaderboards, sorted by fastball velocity
Anyway, I’m saying I definitely see strong potential to become a number three starter here, so I would put that as his realistic ceiling, not number four like some have said.
I think number four seems like a realistic ceiling for Brett Oberholtzer though, whose lefthanded fastball probably averages in the high 80s, maybe ~90mph at best. (However, Oberholtzer does have better command/consistency than Clemens.)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
So you see his ceiling as a #3 and I see it as a #3/#4
Doesn’t seem like we really disagree too much.
As for the velocity report, when I hear BA say he typically works 93-96, I generally assume that they mean he sits 93-94 and touches 96. Obviously this isn’t always the case, but they seem to do that sort of thing a lot (either that or they just always catch guys on their best days or something). Not that there’s really a big difference there anyway and I could definitely see Clemens up to 97 on his very best day.
I’m not quite as sure on the fastball actually being that fast and having that much sink. From the report over at STS, it sounds like he throws both a 2 seam and a 4 seam. The 2 seam is supposed to be the pitch with great sink, but he “only” runs it up there in the 90-93 range.
Honestly, if I were the Astros and I wanted him to start, I’d want him focusing far more on the slower 2 seamer as his main pitch (though with his control/command problems that may not work out too well) instead of the faster 4 seamer, but then again I’m a sucker for movement.
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Some of the best guys
Can throw the power sinker when they want a groundball, and the high four-seamer when they’re looking for a strikeout. Food for thought.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously, its a matter of what you want to pitch off of
I’d prefer him to focus on the 2 seamer as his primary fastball with the 4 seamer staying in his back pocket as a strikeout pitch.
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that makes sense.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
The whole concept of projecting pitchers as a #1, 2, 3 whatever...
Really bugs me. There are teams that lack any pitchers who meet the standard for #3 in the prospect world (baltimore, pittsburgh come to mind), so to me it would seem some of these guys that we dismiss as #4s or whatever can actuallt be really valuable. I dont really know what im trying to say, but it seems like a flawed way to rate pitching prospects
by kyuss94 on Aug 21, 2025 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Well how else would you suggest doing it?
As long as there is some sort of common ground on what we mean with each designation I don’t see the what the problem is.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Project numbers
The way you would with a hitter
by kyuss94 on Aug 21, 2025 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That's how you project hitters?
I can’t think of too many people here who project hitters that way. Generally its more along the lines of floor of a utility man and ceiling of first division starter. Or floor of a decent starter and ceiling of a perennial all star. Maybe I’ll throw some projected WAR values out there (which I guess we could do with pitchers), but that’s as far as it seems to go with numbers. Maybe throw a possible slash line out there. But then again its much easier to project offensive numbers than pitching numbers.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
huh?
There are teams that lack any pitchers who meet the standard for #3 in the prospect world (baltimore, pittsburgh come to mind).
huh? what? Matusz was viewed as a potential #1 (still is in the post-hype sleeper Jeff Neimann world). Ditto with Britton (maybe more of a #2). Taillon is viewed as a potential #1. I guess I’m confused with what you mean.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions
It isnt bad
. . . if you think of iot like this - when somebody says “ace potential”, think of it as one of the top 15 starters in baseball. Without knowing it necessartily most people meen this when they are projecting some one to be an ace.
Id say the same thing for a 2,3,4 or even 5 projection. It means squarely, or firnly a 2 or a 3, etc. - on an average big league team or better. It doesnt refer to a team that has Fereddy Garcia as its ace, If CC giot hurt or something. Thinking that way just gets in the way of what projecting starting roles is supposed to be - communicating.
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by casejud on Aug 22, 2025 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
More info...
No. 1 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus makeup
No. 2 Starter: Two plus pitches, average third pitch, average command, average makeup
No. 3 Starter: One plus pitch, two average pitches, average command, average makeup
No. 4 & No. 5 starters: Average velocity, consistent breaking ball, decent changeup, command of two of the pitches
The other more qualitative definition people use quite a bit would be that a No. 1 starter is someone you’d feel confident about pitching in game 1 of a playoff series, No. 2 for game 2, No. 3 for game 3, No. 4 for an occasion playoff start if necessary, and No. 5 never in the playoffs.
Either the scouting standard or qualitative standard is someone subjective, because not everyone fits each scouting mold perfectly (where does 3 plus pitches with avg command and makeup fit?), and obviously it is hard to define confidence level with a pitcher going in game 2.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 22, 2025 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
So a completely average starting pitcher
would be more of a #4 than the #3 that “average” would suggest. Some people use the top 15, then 16-45, 46-75, etc ranges as guidelines, but I think even those are too generous to #2 and #3 starters.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 22, 2025 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This type of classification is hilarious to me
It cracks me up whenever I see people try and place these parameters on rotation slotting (which is kind of a ridiculous exercise in itself but that’s another discussion).
I’m not trying to pick on you because a lot of people try and do this, but it’s completely futile. There are guys with plus-plus command who slot at the backend of rotations, but the only place that plus-plus command appears on your list is for the #1 starter. In fact I’d guess that more back-end guys have great command than front end guys.
What matters is the results they get. If I’m projecting someone to be a #1 starter I see them being worth 5-6 wins.
by dnc on Aug 22, 2025 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
just to be clear, this isn't "his" list
That is what you see in the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2025 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
i thought it looked familiar
regardless, it’s ridiculous
by dnc on Aug 22, 2025 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm actually just letting people know what it means
when people say #1, #2, #3, etc,
I gave 3 definitions, 2 that i thought were reasonable, 1 that i thought was pretty simplistic and wrong.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 23, 2025 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
you can't project 5-6 wins
by gut feeling alone.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 23, 2025 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
You can’t project it off of a checklist either
by dnc on Aug 23, 2025 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I did
You are correct that I overreacted to the earlier part (the BA stuff) while undervaluing the latter part. My apologies on that.
My bigger point was that BA’s (or anyone else’s) attempt to quantify rotation slots is admirable but completely futile. I’m sorry if that came across as attacking you.
by dnc on Aug 23, 2025 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Jordan Schafer as league average is pretty generous
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by Jeff Reese on Aug 21, 2025 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really if you buy him playing good defense in CF
Even with his current .240/.307/.316 MLB line, he’s about -12 runs offensively. Let’s just say he’s a +3 run baserunner, add in the +2.5 run positional adjustment, and he only has to be a +6.5 defender to get to league average. This year both DRS and UZR have him right in that range defensively. Scouting reports on his defense have always been pretty strong as well.
by nixa37 on Aug 21, 2025 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
The Schafer defenses are interesting
The guy’s never hit above Double-A, and even factoring in the time lost to injury he’s not a kid any more. Schafer fills out a uniform very nicely, but that swing has always looked awfully stiff to me. I’m all for up the middle defense, but a team can only accommodate so many holes in the lineup. I think reports on his defense would have to be “glowing”, not just pretty strong, for me to get on board with such optimistic projections. He’s definitely in the right place though. If you can’t get some rope in HOU you’re not going to get it.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
This seems excessively pessimistic to me
He’s 24 years old and he’s missed large portions of the last two seasons, so I’d basically treat him like a normal 23 year old. His last healthy season he tore up AA. He’s held his own in the majors this year (playing at a roughly league average level for 50+ games). I get that he hasn’t hit in AAA, but when has he been healthy and gotten an extended run there?
Like I just laid out, he’s a league average player with no offensive improvement as long as he’s +6.5 defensively. If he can play good defense and simply post near league average offensive numbers (not a stretch IMO considering his pedigree), he’s a 3 WAR player.
I guess what I’m saying/asking is, what reason do you have to think he’s worse than I’m saying outside of AAA numbers from when he was injured or returning from a long layoff due to injury?
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Not to go all casejud on you,
but I’m not sanguine about relying on a WAR for players which relies so heavily on defense, and the hit tool just isn’t promising for me, and that’s based on a combo of ancedotal, scouting and performance info. I’m not saying that he isn’t a viable major leaguer, but optimistic projections are relying so heavily on positional value and the gamble that his injury, rather than true issues of hitting ability, is holding him back that I’m just a little more reserved. And yeah, his current major league performance is an advance over his disastrous Age 22 stint, but in my experience “holding his own” is the phrase we use to label players for whom we’re pulling but who really aren’t.
;-)
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick question
Are you sanguine on using WAR because you don’t trust the accuracy of defensive metrics (which is why I broke it out in what his true defensive talent level would have to be to be average) or do you think it overvalues defense so that it overvalues a true talent +6.5 UZR defender?
Probably have more to say later but in a rush now.
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably more the former than the latter,
but WAR aside, SS and C are the only positions where I’m okay with defense being the primary driver of a player’s value. It’s less about UZR’s perceived flaws and more about glove first (or only) guys and their value. It’s hard enough for guys like Bryan Petersen and Chris Heisey to get starting jobs and hold them, and they can both play a sound CF and have proved a lot mroe with the bat. If Schafer improves to be at least as good a hitter as either (probably more Petersen than Heisey considering the latter’s power) then I agree with you that he’ll be a rousing success based on what he’s shown to date.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Shoot, you are worse than me
Even I dont talk like I think Heisey, and Peterson, and Shafer are all rouighly the same as Centerfielders.
It’s fairly easy to see that Jordan Schafer is a really outstanding Centerfielder. That said, his offense is horrible. He neither gets on base very much or has any power. He’s a damned good fielding replacement though. He’s truly a thing of beauty to watch in CF. You have to see to be convinced, it sounds like.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Aug 22, 2025 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen Schafer
I’ve also seen Heisey and Petersen, who are both good CF defenders, certainly good enough to play every day for a lot of major league teams. And the point isn’t who’s a superlative defender, it’s how even guys who capably man the position and who actually provide offense have a hard time getting jobs, much less an all glove/unreliable bat. How unlike you to completely miss the point and use someone else’s comment as a springboard to go off on a tangent. Get. Help.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheesh.
Reading your reponse again it’s clear you barely read what I wrote. I can only imagine talking to you in person, watching you mentally concoct your reponses to people instead of listening and then talking over them with rambling interjections that have no clear bearing on anything they’ve just said.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I didnt ramble
. . . it wasnt even a very long response. I hear what you said but, there are larger differences in the defensive values of some centerfielders than you are giving credit for, in my opinion.
I think the fact that the Braves called up Schfer and played him in CF as long as they did suggests this, doesn’t it?
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Aug 22, 2025 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Be careful trying to draw inferences from team's decisions
“I think the fact that the Braves called up Schfer and played him in CF as long as they did suggests this, doesn’t it?”
It could mean that. It could mean they really expected him to figure it out offensively. It could mean they had some reason they did not want to pursue other options. It could mean they’re the same team that dealt for Nate McLouth and maybe evaluating defense in CF isn’t their organizational strongsuit?
We have no idea what their reasoning was. Trying to divine it, and then using our assumption about the team’s thought process to evaluate the player in question is a terrible way to go about evaluating a player’s abilities.
Shafer’s a decent defensive CF. He’s not special.
by dnc on Aug 22, 2025 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Since you just ripped how he evaluated his abilities
How did you come to the conclusion that Shafer is just a decent defensive CF (what does that even mean? Average? Above-average? Plus? Fringe-average?) and that he’s “not special.”
by nixa37 on Aug 23, 2025 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
It is funny that most the time we, as internet experts, usually say we are smarter than the people who make these decisions. Now I give credit that the people running the Braves are smarter than us, and see what happens?
I think it is obvious when you watch him play that he’s a gifted CF - and every report I’ve ever read has said as much to back that up. He isn’t special enough to carry that bat for a contending team but, he was the best they had ’til they made a move to get better.
Incidentally DNC, I agree with your logical point. The fact that a team does something doesn’t prove anything, necessarily, but Schafer happens to be outstanding out there.
I have to admit though that his defensive metrics on BBref.com show him to be solid average, to a little above, through a paltry 100 games to judge him on.
It is a solid, logical point that a team like Atlanta (maybe another team) doesn’t run a guy out there in CF for 50 games who has a .300 Slugging Pct. If he doesn’t contribute something positve to the team.
" I too love everthing that flows: rivers, sewers, lava, blood, bile, words, sentences . ." - Henry Miller
by casejud on Aug 23, 2025 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions
ith as much upside as either Clemens or Oberholtzer.
neither of the pitchers have much in the way of “upside”. they have decent floors, but low ceilings. think #4 starter types. Schafer has more upside than either of them.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2025 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Like I said, I think Clemens has a higher ceiling than that
70 future fastball/two above average future secondaries (55?) is pretty awesome and definitely seems more than no. 4 to me.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Unless he improves his command/control as well, that's still probably a #4
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
if he doesn't improve at all??
that is the weirdest definition of ceiling I’ve ever heard.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 22, 2025 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Who said if he didn't improve at all?
He doesn’t have a present 70 fastball or two present 55 secondaries. Getting to that point would actually be a big improvement. Throw in average command (now IMO you’re getting to the edge of reasonable ceiling) and he’s a borderline #3/#4, which is basically what I project as his (reasonable) ceiling.
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you might be too stringent
In your definition of how good a starting pitcher is? Isn’t having a 70 fastball and two average secondaries with average command enough to be a no. 3?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If he gets to
A 70 fastball, 55 curve/slider, 45 changeup, 50 command wouldn’t that actually be a number two starter, not a number three? Maybe that’s not reasonable for a ceiling but if you subtract a tick all-around there (say 65/50/50/45/45) maybe that’s more reasonable for a ceiling and that still sounds like a number three. Having a true plus fastball is pretty big
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
if anything, I think people aren't nearly stringent enough with their definitions of 1/2/3 starters.
by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2025 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
well the scouting standards
are pretty bad and leave tons of room to be better in several regards and still not meet the min criteria.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 22, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
true, but I don't know if you mean "scouting" standards or "Baseball America" standards
The BA scale is pretty vague, and it rarely seems like even the BA guys themselves adhere to those standards. Using their scale, you can project almost anybody up to at least a No. 2 starter . . .which, of course, works great for selling subscriptions and not-so-great for selling legitimate information.
by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2025 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That's fair
Do professional scouts themselves have some specific standard for projecting guys? Shouldn’t that be common knowledge/shouldn’t we use it?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean I guess there's OFP right
But what constitutes a no. 1/2/3 using OFP?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Aug 22, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
interesting question
I’ll have to think about that one a little bit. OFP already does well at representing the overall range of outcomes of a player, although it does so a little crudely for players beyond the amateur level.
by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2025 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Using their scale, you can project almost anybody up to at least a No. 2 starter
And conversely can make a lot of pitchers look like #4s, whatever that really means.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
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by Jeff Reese on Aug 22, 2025 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Average command would constitute an improvement IMO
If he had average command of a 70 fastball, a 50 breaking ball, and a 50 change then I could see him as a possible 3 depending on pitchability.
by nixa37 on Aug 22, 2025 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Pat Corbin
Mobile’s number 4 starter came within 2 outs from a CGSO, but 2 singles and a 2-run double spoiled what would have been a terrific start. He was still very good against a DH lineup
8 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 8/1 K/BB
by bbtng on Aug 21, 2025 9:48 PM EDT reply actions
Eddie Rosario
3-6 with another HR (16) which I think ties him with teammate Sano, or puts him 1 ahead I forget.
This kids pretty good, he has a live bat, he can run, field, hit for average.
by hotshotschamp on Aug 21, 2025 10:50 PM EDT reply actions
kudos to John, this kid is legit
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 22, 2025 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
thanks!
I like Rosario a lot. He’s gonna be a fantasy stud.
by John Black on Aug 22, 2025 11:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
fantasy stud
This never doesn’t sound filthy dirty to me.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
You will get over it
Fantasy Island sounded nasty to me and the commercials showed hot girls, midgets, and a provocative title. Now all I can associate with fantasy island is “da plane boss, da plane”
by pedrophile on Aug 22, 2025 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish Fantasy Island
had been half as nasty as it sounds. I still loved it as a kid.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
lol I meant Sickels!
Mike Trout- The Man, The NOW, The Legend
by miketrout on Aug 22, 2025 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Castellanos
3-4 2B
Would like to see more power, but with a .337avg and .401OBP in 54 games since the AS break, it’s still impressive.
by BryceHarper on Aug 21, 2025 10:56 PM EDT reply actions
still a big kid with room to add strength
He’s had a nice debut given context.
by mrkupe on Aug 21, 2025 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I was at this game and the best way to describe him is lanky. He looks like he has the frame to add some bulk. I saw the 2B down the line and his 1st single. The last single was a bloop that dropped in front of CF.
by odbsol on Aug 22, 2025 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
casty
I’ve watched him on MiLB.tv. His upper body is all projection at this point, with bony shoulders. I think the power will come with physical development and a few obvious adjustments. Biggest concern is defensive projection.
by mrkupe on Aug 22, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Hammer'n Joe Benson 1-4 , HR , BB , SO
7 hits in last 20 AB’s
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 22, 2025 5:36 AM EDT reply actions
future avg regular or 4th OF type?
by John Black on Aug 22, 2025 11:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Seems to me Benson should be a valuable player in an OF corner.
He should have good defense there, he can get on base and hit for decent power, he runs well—really the only thing you have to worry about at the major league level is his ability to hit for average, and a decent walk rate should negate at least some of that.
Benson is the type of player that doesn’t do anything extremely well, but is a solid player across the board, and is toolsy enough to improve. I see no reason why he can’t be a pretty good COF.
by PissedMick on Aug 22, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Delmon's departure should help
Benson get a look next year.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The only red flag I see is that Michael Saunders types occasionally have a hard time adjusting to the bigs and can get bounced around if they don’t produce right away. I have no doubt that he can be a solid all-around big leaguer in time, but will he get the chance if he scuffles out of the gate?
by limozeen on Aug 22, 2025 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 23, 2025 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian Dozier 2-5 , 2 2B
heard he could be next Darwin Barney….
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 22, 2025 5:37 AM EDT reply actions
Darwin Barney can't believe someone was compared to him!
by John Black on Aug 22, 2025 11:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pedro Guerra , 5.0IP , 2 ER , 6/2 K:BB / 4 HA
Liriano, Mijares, Angel Morales, & Anthony Swarzak for Josh Johnson and Brad Hand
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 22, 2025 5:39 AM EDT reply actions
Jean Segura
is back off the DL. He went 0 -2 and then 1 - 3, with a 2B and a K.
by Hairylady on Aug 22, 2025 7:24 AM EDT reply actions
Alfaro
2 for 4 with two doubles and two strikeouts. 44:4 K:BB on the year but he’s hitting.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
James Baldwin
1 for 4 with his ninth homer. Having a solid year.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:37 AM EDT reply actions
Bryan Petersen
Not a big time prospect, but 2 for 4 with his fifth double in his last eight games as a major leaguer. Could be interesting if he was ever handed a starting CF job, where his bat would really play up. He’s pretty tough to whiff, and he’s a guy who walks enough that he might make it as a decent lead-off hitter.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:45 AM EDT reply actions
like him
every time i saw him play in the minors he made hard contact.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
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by doublestix on Aug 22, 2025 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I like what I've seen,
and I hope he gets a full shot. LoMo isn’t staying down forever so I’m glad Petey is making something out of his PT. Not sure what Cameron’s status is, but maybe it’ll be enough to convince FLA to try Petersen in CF next year. At the least this has to have jumped him over Wise and Cousins for 4th OF dibs.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
On a related note, Kyle Seager
is looking better in his second major league stint. 2 for 4 and has hit in 7 of 10 games since his recall, three of them two-hit games. The 11:1 K:BB in that stretch does give pause…
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
Any of the guys who think (thought?) he'll have a better career than Ackley want to come out again and speak up?
by PissedMick on Aug 22, 2025 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow. Who said that? Come out into the light, you freaks!
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Still hasn't hit his first double
Just one extra base hit (the hr).
I definitely think he’s better than his line, but I’m not penciling him into any future lineups. I think he could be a good utility guy and probably even a league average starter at 2B. He’s not going to displace Ackley though, and I don’t think he’s got what it takes to be league average at 3rd.
I’m pulling for him to get his numbers up to respectability before the year is over, because, like Catricala, I think he’s trade bait.
by dnc on Aug 22, 2025 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ronald Torreyes
2 for 4. Seemed like he was cooling off at the beginning of the month but now 10 for 26 in his last six games, four of them multi-hit. I think it was Ben Badler who said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Torreyes in Double-A by the end of next season. The home/road splits, small though they are, are interesting. Huge BABIP and wOBA at home, but the power is almost non-existent there (.028 IsoP compared to .165 on the road).
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:56 AM EDT reply actions
Tyler Saladino on fire
4 for 6 with two triples and a homer, and in his last four games he’s 13 for 19 with four doubles, three triples and a homer.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 11:59 AM EDT reply actions
Chad Bettis
5IP 3H 1R 1ER 0BB 3K. Continues his strong second half, though I think too much has been made of his supposedly mediocre start by the pundits praising him now. His strikeout and walk rates have been uniformly good all year and some bad luck on hits may have obscured some strong peripherals.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
Kyle Lobstein
has been on a roll. 6IP 7H 1R 1ER 1BB 8K and 18IP 16H 1R 1ER 2BB 19K in his last three starts. One to watch if he finishes strong, though he’s pretty far down the depth chart in that system.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not big on guys who throw in the mid 80s.
by mr. maniac on Aug 22, 2025 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not either, in general,
but Lobstein is a lefty and has a history of good pitchability. If he were to bump up the velo to 89/90 he’d have an average FB from that side, and he’ still young. Admittedly, the drop from his HS velo -happens all the time - has been disappointing.
by blackoutyears on Aug 22, 2025 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Tyler Austin
6-6 with a HR, 3 2B, and 4 RBI. Yankees 2010 13th rounder has a .364/.417/.571/.988 line this year over two levels (GCL and Low-A), with 4 HR and 13 SB (0 CS).
by cookiedabookie on Aug 22, 2025 12:24 PM EDT reply actions












