All Questions Answered

Not a ton of buzz, I had to poke around to find out something about him. Good numbers at Johnson City, 18th round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2009, now 20 years old. Former catcher now an outfielder. I think he’s a sleeper to watch definitely. Transition to Midwest League should be illuminating

Well if the guy can hit and handle shortstop, he’s already a good prospect and people have heard of him. It is hard to find a sleeper shortstop prospect. They don’t stay under the radar long.

You might consider Brian Dozier in Minnesota. He is a solid hitter and while many people assume he’ll move over to 2B, I think he can handle SS for awhile.

I thought he was a Grade B even as an outfielder. I’m agnostic about this move to 2B and I’m not sure I like the idea. I don’t want to mess up a bat like that. Ultimately it didn’t change his grade for me. Let’s see how he adjusts.

And there’s nothing wrong with that!

It may take a year or two. But yes.

D. Bundy and A. Bradley into this ranking?

but of the college arms I would go Bauer, Cole, Hultzen

I don’t think Turner is going to be a genuine ace but he should develop into a solid starter with better-than-league ERAs.

What exact ERA, WHIPS and stuff are, no way to know since we don’t know what kind of context he will be pitching in at his peak. But I would say “better-than-league but not superb”, whatever that means at his peak. Say ERA+ around 115 with a good innings count.

I’m just a lot more familiar with Bauer. I don’t know what to do with Japanese guys like Darvish. Punt.

Not going to be a regular but could still be a useful role player.

If you wrote what I said about Drabek last year, I wrote that I liked his long-term potential but was concerned that his command issues were being underplayed and he could struggle if rushed.

He needs to get it together this year or he’ll be passed by others in the Jays system.

i heard he will probably start off in low-A.

I predict he’ll start off in Low-A and destroy the Sally League for two months, hitting .324/.405/.570 in 42 games. He’ll move up to the California League, hit .330/.397/.525 in 64 games, then be promoted to Double-A and hit .234/.300/.425 in 29 games with mediocre plate discipline, leading to worries from Astros fans.

22.

well he’s still young enough to improve but I’m getting down on him. But if it doesn’t happen within the next two years, I’d start thinking about him as a pitcher. He’s got a great arm.

he still has a chance….tools are solid. but I think he’s a 4th OF if he makes it

define “valuable.”

I’m more confident in Wong reaching his ceiling although Spangenberg has a lot of upside as a leadoff type.

Probably Strasburg but I would have to think about it. I LOVE Moore.

Eovaldi was 43 and Richards 44 on the Top 50 pitchers list.

Damn close but I think Eovaldi’s upside is a tad higher

Assuming health, etc. He does have that kind of potential, yes

I think he’s somewhat underrated and could do pretty damn well in that park.

He doesn’t. I had him at a B-.

Some people have been making a case to me that he’s underrated as a B- and is more of a B. That’s plausible.

When I start working on the integrated 100 list next month, I’m going to review all the grades again, look at guys that I might have under (or over) rated.

My Texas League sources were pretty “blah” about him.

Vince Belnome was one of the most dangerous hitters in Double-A last year, posting
a 39 percent OPS in the Texas League. Alas, he was limited to 75 games by an
abdominal strain, missing most of July and August, but he raked when healthy. He
posted a .979 OPS in his pitching-friendly home park, 1.104 OPS on the road. He
drew walks, didn’t strike out that much, and was hot all year. The main issue
sabermetrically is a strong platoon split: he hit .267/.394/.372 against lefties,
.365/.451/.713 against right-handers. Despite his glorious statistics, Belnome doesn’t
get buzz as a prospect. He was a 28th round pick (2009, West Virginia), and scouts
don’t like his physical tools. His defensive statistics at second base were actually
quite good last year, with a low error rate and strong range factor, but he doesn’t
have the build or athleticism normally associated with middle infielders. I like his
swing and plate discipline and I suspect he’ll keep hitting, but finding a place for him
on the roster may be an issue. His profile is similar to Vince Catricala in the
Mariners system, although Catricala gets more press and better reviews for his bat.
Belnome might be "just" a platoon role player in the future, but I wouldn’t
underestimate him. Grade C.

I haven’t looked at BA’s list. I did mine before theirs came out.

I’d have to study that one

Beckham-Lee-Dietrich-Hager-Martin…..

Schebler is a Grade C for me. He’s got tools but his contact/discipline was terrible in rookie ball.

I have issues with all of those guys and don’t rate any of them as B- at this time. i like Santana.

I hadn’t thought about that but perhaps. Not impossible.

Are you talking about Grade C+ guys at the lower levels, or Grade C+ guys in Triple-A?

Overall I’d probably take the 10 C+ guys over the 3 B-.

Not an ace but you get 200 innings out of him with slightly above-average numbers.

Trying to find someone who is under the radar….hm..

How about Nick Tepesch? No one ever talks about him.

I love Mahtook and felt he was one of the steals of the draft.

Kind of guy who could hit .280-.290 with 20 homers, 20 steals early in his career.

There are some oddly mixed opinions about him. I have one trusted source who RAVES about his tools. Others say his tools are just a tick above-average.

He looks like a fine athlete to me and his performance at LSU just got better and better.

Velocity reports for him are all over the map and his breaking ball is nothing special. I’d say fifth starter or relief option.

2013
late 2012
2013
2013
2013.

but he should provide plenty of doubles and some triples and double-digit homers in his best years.

I think he finishes the year in Double-A.

my read is that Vogelbach’s pure hitting skills are better than Trumbo’s.

I think he can be a useful utility guy but I don’t see him as a long-term regular

Everyone of those guys has the “overall ceiling” of a number one starter. Beyond that I don’t know how to define it without getting impossibly and misleadingly granular. . .“this guy will have a peak ERA+ of 152 and this guy will be 151”.

If you want to know how i RANK them currently, I would go Bauer, Walker, Cole, Bundy, Bradley, Hultzen, Jenkins, Heredia.

But that includes how confident I am, how much objective evidence we have, how far away the guy is from the majors, etc.

My brain doesn’t work that way. Greg Halman had more “upside” than anyone in the minors except Harper, and it didn’t mean he was a good prospect at all.

Kyle Weiland got knocked around during his major league trial last year, but he had
a successful campaign in Triple-A, and deserves more major league chances. He
works with a 90-95 MPH fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, the classic
four-pitch arsenal. None of his pitches are excellent, but when his command is on
he’s effective, or at least that was the case in the minors. His strikeout rate dropped
sharply in the majors, as big-league hitters weren’t as easily fooled as International
League competition. Some scouts see Weiland as a Quadruple-A pitcher, too good
for the minors but not quite good enough for the majors. Others think he can be a
fifth starter or a useful bullpen option, and that’s how I see him. He was traded from
Boston to Houston in December. Grade C+.

should begin this year in Double-A. Major league ETA 2013 I would say.

It is a good question about the k-rate and the main worry about Choice going forward. He’s shown some pure hitting skills at times and isn’t just a one-dimensional guy.

However, Chris Carter occasionally showed some good pure hitting skills, too…I saw this in person…and hasn’t been able to carry it forward yet. Choice is a better athlete and has a better chance to pull it off, but his transition to AA is something we will watch very closely.

It is hard to know who they will take since we don’t know how the front office thinks yet.

I am very partial to Zunino and I hope he makes it to the Twins. I’m not that hot on Marrero or Appel.

I could see them going for Buxton or Giolito if they are looking long-term and not worrying too much about finding someone who can help fast.

I don’t see any of them reaching the majors in 2012. MAYBE thornburg.

Salcedo could see his stock go up considerably. He kind of gets left out of the conversation sometimes. Nicolino, Sampson, Syndergaard, and Biddle are a cut above the other guys. For them to improve, they would be moving into the Grade A range

I would go Nimmo, Arcia, Ozuma.

I am partial to how the Rays handle their pitchers. I would say the vast majority of teams are “in the middle” so to speak and are neither particularly good nor particularly bad at developing players.

When I said earlier that it bothered me that the White Sox loved Molina so much and made me question my judgment, that was about 70% joke but about 30% true. I loved Jared Mitchell coming out of college and we saw what happened there (yes, there was the injury involved).

Of course, the White Sox loved Addison Reed and he was one of my favorites coming out of college, and that one has worked out.

All three have solid tools and athleticism. All three have serious questions about their plate discipline/contact/polish at the plate.

If I had to lay money down, I would say that all three of them fail to develop.

Highest upside if he reaches it: Castillo

Hmm..
Cuthbert; Not impossible.
Bubba: Yes he has that
FMart: No
Liriano: No
Bell: Yes
Baez: not impossible.

I think I would rank their power potential like this: Bell, Bubba, Cuthbert, Baez, FMart, Liriano

Say 58% chance.

He REALLY needs a change of scenery if you ask me.

That said, it is too early to give up on him. Remember Alex Gordon.

Based solely on high school and trying to ignore what they have done in the pros, I would probably have picked Bradley ahead of all of those guys.

A pair of Phillies pitchers.

I am higher on Wright. Both could get into the B-range if they live up to their potential.

Derek Jeter

However keep an eye on Bichette. I love his bat.

Mason Williams has a lot of potential as well.

he wasn’t particularly close. Grade C type. i did not have a good report on him, and the Padres have a DEEP system

Sanchez was drafted in the supplemental first round in 2010, 34th overall, from high
school in Barstow, California. I gave him an aggressive rating last year, but he didn’t
quite live up to my expectations, struggling with his command in the Appalachian
League. He has a low-90s power sinker that hitters struggle to loft, along with an
erratic-if-promising curveball. His changeup is below average right now. Sanchez’s
profile contains a nice combination of strikeouts and ground balls, and I remain
impressed with his long-term outlook. He could develop into a number two starter,
although right now Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino are ahead of him. Grade
B-.

Casey Crosby missed most of 2008 after Tommy John surgery, had a strong year in
the Midwest League in 2009, then missed almost all of 2010 with mysterious elbow
pain that the doctors could find no cause for. He returned in 2011 and had an
inconsistent season in Double-A, although he’s still just 23 years old and remains
one of the most impressive talents in the Tigers system. When healthy, Crosby owns
a 92-95 MPH power sinker, getting to 97-98 at times. His curveball is excellent, and
he’s improved his changeup, giving him two plus pitches and a third that could be at
least average. His biggest problem is simple command: he gets behind in the count
too often, and while he’s gotten away with it in the minors, major league hitters
would make him suffer for it. He needs Triple-A and I think he would struggle if
rushed to the Show too soon, but his upside is quite notable. With his remaining
command issues we have to go with a Grade B, but if you see Crosby’s K/BB ratio
improve, raise that grade!

I haven’t studied the 2012 draft guys in any sort of detail yet other than a few top names. Cecchini is certainly a candidate for the first round heading into draft season, but whether that’s early or late first round, i don’t know yet.

In what order would you rank these guys if buying a lotto ticket?

Damn good question. lol.

The obvious public sources to start. BA is increasing their coverage of these types of players and that’s a starting point. If I need more, I have some people I can ask. Some organizations I have very reliable and informative windows into, and some I don’t. It just depends.

Beckham

Bauer if he spends enough time in the majors. Possibly Turner

However, consider that a lot of guys who are outfielders or corner players in the majors were shortstops when they were in high school because they were usually the best athletes on their teams, even if they don’t/can’t stick there in pro ball.

SLEEPER ALERT!! Signed out of Korea in 2007 for $525,000, Rhee’s career was
slowed by Tommy John surgery in 2009. He returned in 2010 but wasn’t at full
strength, but went back to Daytona in 2011 and looked more like his old self. At his
best, Rhee features a low-90s fastball, a curveball, and a changeup. All three pitches
are solid, and he has very good command. He did his best pitching in the second half
last year, with a series of high-strikeout/strong command starts to end the season
resulting in a 32/5 K/BB in his last 25 innings. Although he doesn’t have the blazing
stuff of a rotation anchor, his ability to throw three pitches for strikes gives him
projection as a number three or four starter. His late season flourish is a good marker
heading into 2012. Late-season reports had his velocity increasing into the mid-90s,
and he could break out in a big way this year. Grade C+.

and I think he’s going to be terrific in 2012. Prototype right fielder.

I expect he torches AA and AAA and spends August and September in KC

though Noesi will help more short-term obviously

I much prefer minor league parks to major league ones, although to be honest I have not been to most major league parks.

The new parks in Omaha and Tulsa are really nice.

I don’t have a good comp. He was so damn erratic last year. He would look like complete crap for an inning or two, then suddenly find the touch, then lose it again.

He could turn into anything from Danny Jackson to Jeremy Affeldt to some guy who hangs around for 15 years and never blossoms

The top Jays guys are all at least a year away, some 2-3.

Of the top ones, McGuire should get first crack although he doesn’t have as great of a physical ceiling as some of the other guys.

I love Carreno but it looks like he relieves

Well physically Cruz is about 30 pounds heavier. I also think he has more power than Guyer, who is more of a gap type hitter than a slugger.

I doubt Guyer ever hits 30 homers

A third baseman with an above-average glove who hits .300 with 20+ homer power. Take your pick on who that is.

Jorge Reyes was drafted out of Oregon State in 2009, a 17th round pick. He had a
rough patch in the California League in 2010, but was much more effective in
Double-A in ’11, seeing good success as a swingman in the Texas League. He posted
a 3.90 ERA with a 74/24 K/BB in 88 innings over 20 starts, fair performance, but he
was outstanding after moving to the bullpen in early August, posting a 0.36 ERA with a 24/6 K/BB and 19 hits in 25 innings. He also vultured five wins in relief.Reyes has a low-90s fastball and a good slider, but his changeup is lacking and he’s probably best-suited for a relief role. Although not overpowering, he throws strikes and works very quickly. The Padres have a lot of raw material for a future bullpen,and Reyes is another piece. Grade C.

Keep in mind that “intriguing” is NOT THE SAME THING as best prospect.

Pitchers: Law. He’s got that godawful delivery but he has a live arm and great numbers. Very intriguing.

Hitters: Susac. How much power will he show?

A consistent producer for three years at the University of Virginia, Proscia was
drafted in the seventh round last June. He went to the California League and
continued to hit well. Granted, it was High Desert, and he had a sharp home (1.020
OPS)/road (.727 OPS) split. Still, he went from college to High-A and wasn’t
overwhelmed, which is a nice marker. Proscia has some athleticism, arm strength,
and intriguing power, but his swing mechanics are questioned and he needs work
with the strike zone. Grade C but he could surprise.

fifth round pick in 2010. Blah stats in rookie ball. I didn’t pick up any exciting scouting reports.

with snider traded somewhere

The Indians system is loaded at the lower levels with Grade C+ type guys who could develop into something interesting but are just too far away to tell yet. There is a lot of potential in this system and is could certainly rank in the top 1/3 by this time next year.

Chris Carpenter has a terrific arm with a fastball that’s touched 100 MPH and works
consistently in the mid-90s. The pitch has movement, too, and is a legitimate plusplus
offering on his best days. He also has a very good slider, but his changeup has
never been more than so-so, so it made sense for the Cubs to move him to the
bullpen last year. It didn’t work, at least not right away: he was particularly awful in
Triple-A, totally losing his command due to mechanical problems. Some people have
written him off, but that’s a mistake. He looked much better in the Arizona Fall
League, posting an 18/2 K/BB in 14 innings with a 3.29 ERA, which is superb given
the hitting conditions. Small sample, of course, but that’s an awfully good K/BB,
especially given his history. If Carpenter develops even average command, his stuff
is good enough for him to be a very helpful set-up man, if not a closer. I still think he
has a chance to be a valued commodity. Grade C+.

Loads of physical talent but has no idea how to play baseball yet. The ball jumps off his bat but he struggles to actually make contact.

It seems like Wilmer Flores has been around since the Nixon Administration, but
he’s still just 20 years old, not even the equivalent of a college junior yet. He hasn’t
lived up to his potential by any means, and his production actually slipped last year,
his OPS dropping from +7 percent in ’10 to negative 4 percent. He still makes contact and
demonstrates raw power, but his impatient approach holds him back. He is
outgrowing shortstop and began the transition to third base in winter ball, but of
course he’ll have to hit a lot better than this to have a future at an infield corner. I
think it is clear Flores has suffered for being rushed, but it comes back to the
birthday: he is just way too young to give up on, and he still has time to blossom.
The chance of that happening seems a little less each year that his production
remains stagnant, but I’m not ready to pull the plug yet. The fact that he keeps the
strikeouts under control despite his other problems is a good marker. Grade B-.

I have to pick up my kids from school. Be back in awhile and I’ll start off here.

There is a school of thought that says Beckham is actually now underrated because he hasn’t lived up to expectations. There could be some truth to that.

I still have a hard time seeing him as an above-average major league shortstop. I don’t think he has the range, and his bat won’t play at third. Maybe 2B, sure.

I think we’ll know a lot more in a year. I don’t like the way his plate discipline collapsed in Triple-A, but he still has plenty of adjustment time.

Not a masher. Could get to 10 homers a year perhaps. Not punchless, should hit 2B and 3B.

.303/.349/.462.

If he’s healthy, yes

Well I have to go with Oramas right now since he’s done it at a higher level, however I think JRod is underappreciated. I think both will be vying for bullpen/’fifth starter roles in 2 years.

oh, that’s awful. I like all three of these guys but for very different reasons.

Martinez has the highest upside and could be a number one starter. He also has the highest risk of failure due to his youth and command issues. Molina has the least upside but is more likely to reach his ceiling. Odorizzi is in the middle.

If I want someone to help soon, i rank it Molina, Odorizzi, Martinez.
If I am only concerned with upside and don’t care about risk or immediate help, it goes Martinez, Odorizzi, Molina.

Looks like a utility guy to me.

Take a look at Tom Robson, Canadian high school pitcher drafted this year. Quite polished, decent stuff.

Could be 3/4 starter if all goes well. This may be just my 80s upbringing but I’ve always like splitters. I’d say slightly better than 50/50 in his favor

Kelly I guess. Maybe Hernandez as a fifth starter. I bet they all end up as relievers.

I don’t know. I think a lot of them are pretty stretched.

He still has a shot. Not what it once was and he’s more probably a useful platoon/role player

I just mean, when people compare a high school kid (Harper) to a former high school kid (Griffey)… there’s a lot changed between those 20 years. Is there a single teenager that displayed such tools in HS that just outshines the rest of that elite class of HS players in the last 25 years?

well not yet.

Texas Rangers, 3B

Cincy SS prospect.

I have a fever. And the only cure is more Zelous Wheeler

Goes to Beloit, struggles in April cold weather, gets hot in late May, hits .275/.339/.530 on the season with a huge power surge late in the year, strikes out more than once per game, walk rate not terrible but not terrific either.

I don’t really see him as Matt Williams.

Matt Davidson moved up to the California League last year and held his own.
Considering the difference in contexts between the ’10 Midwest League and the ’11
Cal circuit, he lost ground in relative terms, his OPS+ dropping from +22 percent to
just +4 percent. However, scouts seemed pleased with the development of his swing
and believe he’ll continue producing home runs at higher levels, although in my
opinion we’ll have to see what happens with his batting average and OBP. Although
their numbers are quite similar, Davidson now ranks ahead of organization-mate
Bobby Borchering in the eyes of most scouts. He has more mobility than Borchering,
has a better chance to stick at third base, and is six months younger, which makes a
significant difference in terms of projection when dealing with players of very
similar skill sets. Grade B-.

development track record, at least lately, have to do with the working class? I’m a Dominican Red Sox fan so clearly I’m a member of the “elite.”