BA Texas League Top 20
by realitypolice on Oct 6, 2025 11:45 AM EDT
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1. Mike Trout, of (Angels)
2. Shelby Miller, rhp (Cardinals)
3. Garrett Richards, rhp (Angels)
4. Martin Perez, lhp (Rangers)
5. Jake Odorizzi, rhp (Royals)
6. Wilin Rosario, c (Rockies)
7. Casey Kelly, rhp (Padres)
8. Robbie Erlin, lhp (Rangers)/(Padres)
9. Jedd Gyorko, 3b (Padres)
10. James Darnell, 3b (Padres)
11. Grant Green, ss (Athletics)
12. Tim Wheeler, of (Rockies)
13. Wil Myers, of (Royals)
14. Zack Cox, 3b (Cardinals)
15. Chris Dwyer, lhp (Royals)
16. Kelvin Herrera, rhp (Royals)
17. Salvador Perez, c (Royals)
18. Joe Wieland, rhp (Rangers)/(Padres)
19. Matt Adams, 1b (Cardinals)
20. J.D. Martinez, of (Astros)
Surprises to me:
Perez is lower than I figured they would have him
They're sticking to their guns on Kelly
Herrera where he is (especially when bypassing Miller and Brach)
Nicasio is a no-show even though he qualified with innings
DISCUSS!
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Wow
I have no idea how he could have been excluded.
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure someone will ask during the chat...begins as 2 pm ET.
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
1st question answered
Ben (Leland Grove): Was Juan Nicasio a 21-25 prospect? Thoughts on his pitches?
Will Lingo: Nicasio I think we almost have to hold in abeyance because of the ugly injury he sustained after moving up to the big leagues. We had an organization report in the issue with all the minor league prospect lists that said his rehab was going well, but it also had a quote from Jim Tracy, who was asked when Nicasio might pitch again: “That’s a complete unknown for sure.” On pure talent, he’s certainly a top 20 kind of guy. Not a lot of people saw him because he only made nine starts before getting called up, but he was impressive, with a power fastball, good curveball and solid changeup/split. Let’s just hope he can come all the way back from his injury, both physically and psychologically.
by rlwhite on Oct 6, 2025 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That seems a bit odd
Why would his major league injury keep him off a minor league ranking? He was either one of the Top 20 performers in the league or he wasn’t.
by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2025 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
projection
A BA prospect list isn’t about performance, it’s about projection. How can you project ML success for a guy that has a quite high chance of not getting back on the field?
by rlwhite on Oct 6, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
"it’s about projection"
Not if you’ve read the chats. These lists actually weight perfomance a lot according to most of the authors (see Harvey, Matt vs. McPherson, Kyle, Judge John Manuel presiding).
by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Quite true...
I doubt Myers sits as low as he does on this list if not for an injury sapping 2 months of his season (1 month gone, 1 month to get back to sped).
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
In all actuality...
It does seem like the authors cherry-pick how they rank players based on performance versus pedigree…leaving out Nicasio and Altuve smacks of pedigree bias, including Dwyer seem to put performance as less than pedigree, and so on…
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Nicasio was left off for injury reasons (apparently), not pedigree
Altuve was left off because Lingo (or some confluence of Lingo and league sources informing Lingo) thinks he projects as a utility guy.
I’ve seen Dwyer at his best this season, and that prospect definitely deserves to be included. His year was bad statistically but I’m bullish on him.
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
"It does seem like the authors cherry-pick"
Definitely. Things could be a little more uniform from league to league imo, just as editorial dictate. OTOH, I just read these for the scouting reports, so I only care when someone about whom I’d like to read is left off entirely.
by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2025 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If injury is the reason, then why not leave Myers off?
He didn’t do a bang-up job even when he finally healed (albeit not until the second half of the season), but he had the pedigree coming into the 2011 season. Nicasio incurred his injury well into his stint in the majors, but was questioned by much of the community at the start of 2011 - too old for the league performances, translation of stuff to the bis, etc.
If Mr. Lingo placed Nicasio at #15 and said he had concerns about the injury long-term, that’s fine, but to leave him off entirely leaves me questioning the reliability of the entire list outside of the obvious top 3-5 players.
(FWIW, I love Myers as a prospect…I just see this situation as a contradiction in selection.)
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Nicasio's injury is much more serious
I am pretty bullish on him returning, but you have to see the difference here. Nicasio was struck in the face with a baseball that resulted in a broken vertebra.
As for Myers, I’d say coming in at 13th on this list speaks against the pedigree argument.
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
The Wil Myers placement is certainly very interesting
by nixa37 on Oct 6, 2025 11:51 AM EDT reply actions
This.
And I 100% disagree with it. It seems with me that when hitters have mediocre years, scouts jump off the boat really quickly.
by mr. maniac on Oct 6, 2025 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
behind grant green?
really?
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 6, 2025 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I might like this list more than any other
I think it acknowledges the talent in this league while also paying some (but not overwhelming) attention to the numbers.
The only placement I thoroughly disagree with is Myers, but perhaps there was some feeling that despite the injury, he stands to be only a solid corner OF. I disagree (I think he can be very good), but I’m sure there are plenty of scouts who feel that way.
The league was loaded this year . . .but check out Jake Odorizzi’s ranking! Lots of love for a guy with fairly middling numbers there.
by mrkupe on Oct 6, 2025 12:00 PM EDT reply actions
No Altuve?
Also Grant Green is way too high to me… especially after the move to CF.
by kyuss94 on Oct 6, 2025 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
Dwyer
Kinda surprised that he made the list…very inconsistent, even last season. Looks like a RP (and possibly a LOOGY, at that) after 2 full seasons of minor league work.
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 12:19 PM EDT reply actions
it's not surprising
it’s an 8 team league first of all, and second he’s got a whole f load of talent in that left arm. i’m sure it helped that down the stretch he was pretty damn good also.
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by doublestix on Oct 6, 2025 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
"he’s got a whole f load of talent in that left arm"
I’d like nothing more than for him to really show that to be true…I’m just very skeptical that he sticks as a SP…
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, the scouting report on him also leans that direction...
“…Dwyer has good raw stuff but struggles to harness it…”
“When he has command, particularly of his fastball, Dwyer can be deadly. When he doesn’t, hitters will just lay off the curveball and wait him out. He remains more of a thrower than a pitcher, and his two quality pitches and struggles with consistency suggest he might be better off coming out of the bullpen.”
http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2011/2612448.html
by dbreer23 on Oct 6, 2025 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
The Royals replaced their MiLB pitching cordinator this season
One can assume it has a lot to do with how the pitchers did this last season. So, with the new guy the Royals seem to have opened up a lot on their development philosophies. This can only help those pitchers who seemed to struggle last year. Command is one thing that McClure and his staff could never quite help anyone attain. I’m very optimistic on what’s going to happen this coming season with all the MiLB KC pitchers.
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by 306008 on Oct 7, 2025 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
yep with former Twins pitching coordinator Rick Knapp
I wonder if this means we’ll see a BB rate of 1.25 - 1.50 per 9 Innings pitched and a k rate of 5.5-6 per 9 Inn. pitched from now on from K.c. ?
lol
just a jab just a jab…
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 7, 2025 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
What part of
pitch to contact don’t you understand, kid?! lol
by blackoutyears on Oct 8, 2025 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I was hoping Smith might have taken a big step forward too...
but he regressed as well. Seemed like he made real strides once coming over from LAA in 2010, no-no notwithstanding.
by dbreer23 on Oct 8, 2025 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Smith made some pretty large strides second half of season
got him throwing a slider, numbers great as season went on. still, he was never more than a potential #4 for me. or more like a reliever, as he’s always been very good vs LH batters.
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by doublestix on Oct 8, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Assuming Nicasio comes back from the neck injury the same
Is there anyone here who would take Casey Kelly over him?
by bigboy1234 on Oct 6, 2025 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
That's a big assumption, but under that assumption
The only pitcher on this list I’d take ahead of him is Shelby Miller (maybe Martin Perez).
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 6, 2025 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Altuve
Will Lingo just made casejud cry:
“[Altuve] is a solid hitter but probably not as good as he showed this season, and he doesn’t offer much power. He’s a solid defender at second base, but his arm prevents him from playing at short or third. Speed is probably his best tool, but some scouts say that’s only average. He got off to a hot start in Houston but tailed off to a .654 OPS by the end of the season. So I like the guy, but I see him as a utility player ultimately, so he just missed the list.”
Wow, where have we heard scouting reports like this one before…
by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2025 3:22 PM EDT reply actions
As fun as Altuve is to root for
I think of the Astros’ 2011 rookie trio, he has the least upside. Martinez showed some real power potential and could be 3/4/5 hitter at some point in his career, and Paredes still looks like he could fill out some more and if he tightened up his swing mechanics I think he could really cut down on the whiffs. He looks to have a ton of upside. Altuve I think will be a solid regular, perhaps a bit more, but I’m a bit down on him as a potential Pedroia type, at least from a power perspective. In a lucky year he may contend for a batting title, and he plays very good defense at 2B, but I think I may agree that his power won’t translate.
by kyuss94 on Oct 6, 2025 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just laughing
because this almost word-for-word the impression I posted of Altuve this week. You’re a HOU fan, so you’d know, but I just didn’t see anything in the swing that was designed to generate loft on a regular basis. He can square a FB and drive it, but not over the fence so much, or even deep in the gaps. Maybe he’ll make an adjustment next year.
I like the other two better as well, especially Martinez. I think the bat is legit, and he looked fine in LF when I saw him, though it was mostly coming in on balls. Not to compare the two, but I was a big Hunter Pence fan and felt that he was unfairly underrated because of his awkward actions, and similarly I think the characterizations of Martinez’s swing as funky or unorthodox aren’t really an issue. The guy can hit.
Paredes was one of the most intriguing young guys I saw debut all year for any team. Yanks sure know how to find these guys, don’t they? Good job by HOU to grab him in the Berkman trade. In retrospect, getting your closer and 3B out of that was amazing.
by blackoutyears on Oct 6, 2025 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
Even with how well Berkman did this year, it’s hard not to be thrilled with the return they got. Even though Melancon is 26, I think there’s still untapped potential with him in terms of the command of his curveball. He can be dominant when he has it working well, and his fastball is good enough that he can get by when it isn’t. He had a fairly successful season for a guy who was basically a rookie and got thrown into the closing role early in the season.
by kyuss94 on Oct 6, 2025 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys are forgetting that Altuve is only 21 or just turned 22. He is going to put
on some muscle and strength as he ages. I think he will hit for more power then what some people are thinking.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 7, 2025 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't see any projection in Altuve
Just because he’s young doesn’t mean he isn’t physically mature.
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 7, 2025 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This.
He’s about as built as he’s going to be. He will adjust to major league pitching more and maybe improve his approach, but he doesn’t have any bulk left to put on.
by kyuss94 on Oct 7, 2025 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Altuve is a fire hydrant
It’s one of the reason that when I saw his A-ball video I was optimistic about his chances of making it to the bigs. That and his swing mechanics were very good. Projection though? Doubtful. If anything I worry about him slowing down as he gets older, and bulking up might slow him down as well. I wouldn’t want him to get any bigger than he is now.
I liked Melancon when I saw him with the Yanks a few years ago. It’s not the biggest stuff around, but he located fairly well and featured enough movement on his pitches that I thought he had a set-up ceiling. Apparently I sold him short.
by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
The hammer curveball he throws reminds me of an old Houston closer
When it’s really working, at least. Which isn’t nearly as often as you’d like. It resembles Brad Lidge’s slider, it really falls off the table. He reminds me a little bit of Luke Gregerson, overall.
by kyuss94 on Oct 7, 2025 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Lidge
Let’s hope the breaking ball is the only similarity. Lidge has been torture to watch for so many years that I’ve almost forgotten how money he used to be.
Gregerson is an interesting reference. He can really pitch.
by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not saying that he will put on more muscle but you can gain strength as you
get older. If he gains strength which I know I did as I got older he will be able to hopefully hit for more power.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 10, 2025 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it's about strength
I think it’s about his swing. It was a line drive approach every time I saw him. Which is great, because I think it takes best advantage of his ability. Do you really want him swinging for the fence?
by blackoutyears on Oct 11, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Well of course not. I've never said that. All Im getting at is that some
folks don’t actually know how strong this guy is already at the age of 21/22. He’s going to get stronger and will hit for more power then what you guys saw when he got to Houston. It’s normal to become stronger as you get older plus he’ll be working with strength and conditioning coaches so adding strength is gonna happen. He’ll never be a power hitter but I think he’s going to surprise folks. Watching him here in Corpus the little guy is pretty solid as it is and he’s only going to get stronger.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 13, 2025 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions
We've already commented
on his solid build. I don’t think there’s some blanket rule that he gets stronger, or that it necessarily leads to a great deal of additional power. Power is a function of the swing as much as anything; think Ichiro or Gwynn, and their assertions that they could hit for more power but chose not to sell out for the extra loft. Altuve would not only have to get stronger, but also change the swing we saw after he reached HOU.
by blackoutyears on Oct 14, 2025 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesnt necessarily have to change anything to drive the ball.
He can drive the ball as I witnessed in person numerous times while he was here in AA. Perhaps the coaching staff just wanted him to concentrate on hitting the ball and putting it in play. He is very young to be in the MLs and after watching the way this coaching staff handled/mishandled the younger players I wouldnt put that out of the realm of possibility at all. Im pretty sure they were trying to keep these kids from going out and trying to do too much and wind up falling on their faces. Mighty Mouse has a fair amount of strength already and will get a bit stronger as he works with the teams strength and conditioning coaches just like all the other young guys. Im not saying he’s going to turn into the second coming of Joe Morgan but I think you guys are underestimating Altuve some.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 15, 2025 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I saw great video
of him in the minors, and it showed his strength and ability to drive the ball, which are exactly the things I thought would get him to the majors. You can’t have it both ways: either he’s going to hit for more power because he gets stronger or he’s already strong enough and isn’t doing ti for some reason. You keep changing your position, and you don’t seem especially objective about him.
And how am I underestimating him to say that the swing he showed in the majors isn’t conducive to power, especially home run power? The first thing I said was that “maybe he’ll make an adjustment”, clearly allowing for him to add more power to his approach. So no, I’m not underestimating him, just assessing what he’s able to accomplish with his current approach while still allowing for future adjustments, and you can leave me out of your “you guys” propositions.
by blackoutyears on Oct 16, 2025 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd advise
going back and reading everything I’ve posted above. There’s no inconsistency there and I’m pretty clear about thinking Altuve is a solid player. Not liking him as much as you do is not “underestimating” him. When you say things like that it only highlights your lack of objectivity. Note that nowhere did I claim you were overestimating him? I stated my opinion and explained why I held it. You should try it.
by blackoutyears on Oct 16, 2025 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
How is it flip flopping when I say he has power and will get
stronger as he gets older? Hes has power but its not the same amount as say Paul Goldschmidt. Why is it not logical for him to have some power now and get stronger as he gets older and adds muscle and strength? I dont know why you keep arguing with me since we both like the guy. I just personally feel some people are underestimating him because of his height and the fact that he didnt crush the ball when he came up. Thats just my opinion having played the game and now coaching it.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 17, 2025 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem
is that tyou want to act as its an aberration that he showed almost no power once called up, and featured a swing without any loft. He’s also pretty much maxed out physically, so all the “he’s gonna get stronger” stuff is pure surmise. He’s not some rail thin kid with a frame form adding 30 lbs. of muscle. There’s ample reason to doubt that he’ll have a lot of power going forward, especially if he doesn’t change his swing plane. It’s just as likely that the people you “feel” are underestimating him are simply being realistic, or at least treating the evidence at hand more objectively.
by blackoutyears on Oct 17, 2025 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
You dont have to add 30 lbs of muscle to gain
strength. It also happens to occur naturally. You get stronger as you get older. but since you know EVERYTHING I’ll bow to your majesty’s knowledge even though I have seen him play and not just in video clips or one or two games on TV.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Oct 18, 2025 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Any of those games in HOU?
Because anyone who saw him there — and I saw six games, three right after his promo and three at the end of the year — has a perfect right to their opinion of his future power potential based on the swing he showed. If you think optimistic wishcasting about his gaining strength outweigh concrete, objective analysis of his swing that’s fine, but it doesn’t put you in a position to criticize anyone’s estimation. My feelign is that strength isn’t the issue, swing plane is. I’m hoping as he gets more comfortable that he can adjust his swing to add loft when appropriate. I’m not holding his size against him, and I’m not going overboard about a SSS IsoP of 0.81; neither should boosters make too much of his Double-A IsoP imo as he’s probably somewhere in the middle.
The Cal Lg video I saw was of extremely good quality, covering his infield practice and his approach at the plate. I loved the swing and was impressed by the build and his actions at 2B. I found him a convincing major league prospect, which seems to have been borne out by his eventual arrival in HOU.
Your defensiveness is amusing and greatly enhances your arguments. Nice touch. lol
by blackoutyears on Oct 18, 2025 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Will Lingo is not the first, nor the last.
by realitypolice on Oct 6, 2025 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
There are only two or three guys on this list I would take Altuve over
It’s a strong group overall… I’m not surprised he was omitted.
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by OremLK on Oct 7, 2025 6:20 AM EDT up reply actions
"It’s a strong group overall"
I think so too, Orem. And I like Adams and Martinez, who brought up the rear, a lot. I think both of those guys will hit.
by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope, I'm good
Any scouting reporter who thinks his speed tool is better than his hit tool is a little bit strange though. If Lingo thinks he has an average hit tool, he doesn’rt know of what he speaks. I’m sure he just mis-spoke there. At this point it doesn’t really matter what anybody says to me about him. I’ve seen him play enough to know what I am seeing. He isn’t going to be a utility player.
Another thing ? Why do people so often say they “like a guy” right before a report where they clearly do NOT like a guy? Does anybody out there really interpret thwe terms “like” or “dislike” here as personal? Who gives a shit if he likes the guy? :)
It’s as if many folks feel the need to say how much they like Altuve for how just so cute,, and cuddly, and adorable he is. I don’t see him that way at all. I just see him as a hell of a player.
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by casejud on Oct 9, 2025 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
You mean the same way you use "no offense but..."?
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by Jeff Reese on Oct 9, 2025 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Touche'
Hey, I really like the guy but, I do not think much of his judgement on minor league hitters :) I really didn’t meen any offense by it though.
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by casejud on Oct 10, 2025 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone needs to help me out with how Richards is above Perez
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by MonkeyEpoxy on Oct 6, 2025 6:08 PM EDT reply actions
Richards seems high
I like him, but I didnt think theyd have him this high, I hope they’re right about him!
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by mathisrocks5 on Oct 6, 2025 10:27 PM EDT reply actions
Also
I’m assuming that Jarred Cosart did not qualify? As opposed to being omitted?
by kyuss94 on Oct 7, 2025 11:33 AM EDT reply actions
yes
Coasrt and Clemens did not meet the threshold. Cosart would have been on for sure and Clemens apparently got routinely positive reviews in his time there per the chat.
by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Cool.
Clemens performed very well statistically, glad the scouting reports match it.
by kyuss94 on Oct 7, 2025 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Clemens
was also asked about in the Southern League chat:
“His stuff is very good. Fastball sat 92-93, touched 96-97, average to above-average curveball, an average slider and a below-average changeup. For his stuff, though, he doesn’t miss that many bats and his command is still going to need more work. Definitely a candidate for the back of the list, but he’s expendable when you’re getting Michael Bourn without having to give up any of your elite pitching prospects.” BA Ben Badler
by blackoutyears on Oct 7, 2025 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Nicasio isn't a prospect anymore
He pitched 70 innings in the bigs.
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by MattBerger on Oct 10, 2025 12:31 AM EDT reply actions
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