Thinking about Yu Darvish

Completely agree on the budgeting - the cost is the cost is the cost. Sure, it could help with the luxury tax, but the Rangers aren;t close to that level anywhere.

I’m very skeptical on the Japan related revenues. I know there was a study done showing teams who signed Japanese players outperformed in estimated Forbes revenue growth compared to similar teams, but they didn’t control for the growth trend in the seasons before (in other words, only successful teams are likely to pony up for a big posting fee - thses teams have likely been growing their revenues faster anyway). I was going to look into this more if the Jays won the Darvish bidding, but they didn’t, so it was a moot point for me.

Also, you see these big figures about advertising dollars from Japanese companies, but the reported numbers are all over the place - even from the same source. This 2009 Wall Street Journal article quotes a source “familiar with the deals” saying $20M annually. This 2010 WSJ article quotes a source “familiar with the team’s business side” saying $3M annually. Frankly, if Matsui relal brought in a lot of money, I can;t imagine the Yankees would have ever let Matsui go (for $6M to the Angels) or not bid a pile on Darvish.

matt moore is property of the rays for a while. if matt moore hit the fa right now, teams would be all over him like white on rice. if you believe in the player, and need the player, you spend the money it will take to get him

Maybe it wouldn’t get quite that high, but I could imagine it approaching $100M. Sure he hasn’t really pitched at th MLB level, but he’s got phenomenal stuff and unlike most free agent pitchers, has th aging curve in his favour

We really don;t have a precedent for something like this, so it’s all speculation, but I wouldn’t be as skeptical as you

this is exactly what i was thinking

if Matt Moore was in FA right now, what would happen? obviously it’s all speculation, but i just can’t see him getting over $110 million in free agency. and it’s not immediately obvious to me that Moore is worse than Darvish in a vacuum

in japan, sports stars are treated like gods, and japan has a huge baseball following. you may not put japanese baseball in the same league as MLB, but to perform like he has in a league where the fans expect the absolute best out of you and wont settle for less, that is pressure proven.

He’s competed against lesser competition and dominated - It doesn’t prove he’s ready for the pressure of facing a team of MLB players in the World Series. You know who is a star in the NPB? Matt Murton.. he won’t be facing a team of Matt Murton’s or worse in the WS.

i agree, darvish ISNT felix or lincecum, yet…but theres no reason he cant be, and if you wait until he becomes one of those guys, then yes, he will cost much more than 19 mil per. he is absolutely worth the gamble.

How much more? 4 million more per year? 5? I’d rather spend 4-5 million more per year on a guy that has proven his stuff year over year than take a 4 million discount and hope a guy that has never thrown a pitch in the majors magically IS one of those two. It’s not like you’re looking at a possible 90% savings on Darvish, the savings are minimal.

the rangers need a pitcher with ace potential more than ever after the angels signed pujols and cj wilson. like i said, that has to be factored into the equation.

I agree they do, however, I think the pressure made them overpay for Darvish.

it may average out to 19 mil per season, but thats not what it is. we’re pain darvish 10 per season, and the fee is a one time hit. baseball teams set aside money for this exact sort of thing.

You’re making a major assumption that all MLB teams happen to have 50 million dollar slush funds in case a guy is posted from Japan… I hear this argument all the time, but it’s money spent, no matter where that money is coming from. It’s $19 million AAV - end of story.

You think he’s worth the gamble, and that’s fine. I personally don’t, and I don’t see anything in your arguments outside of what you’re hoping and assuming that shows me he was.

Dollar amounts are based on both the market and upon an individual teams economy. For example if the Rays were to pay a pitcher $30 million and that pitcher could get them 9 WAR based on your reasoning that would be a good deal. But the Rays are not selling more tickets, are not expanding TV revenue, or for that matter any other revenue stream. Financially it makes no sense.

Now I do understand you might say this isn’t about financially but you both are using dollar amounts to decide whether someone was “worth” it. It doesn’t work in a vacuum.

At the moment people talk about Texas having a lot of money. But the reality is teams like Texas, NY, Boston, Ana, etc. by spending huge amounts also get huge returns in TV and other revenue streams. They are operating in a different economy from others. And yet you are using an average WAR to evaluate these signings. Based on these evaluations you would probably conclude many/most of the Boston, Yankees, Anaheim, etc. signings are bad. And yet these teams are not only winning but making huge profits. You might want to rethink your method of evaluating a good signing from a bad signing.