Separated at Birth: Brian Matusz or Jon Niese

by John Sickels on Sep 14, 2025 9:00 AM EDT Comment 40 comments

New York Mets starting pitcher Jonathon Niese (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Baltimore Orioles rookie lefty Brian Matusz has been pitching much better of late, possibly positioning himself for a sophomore breakout in 2010. Meanwhile, New York Mets rookie Jon Niese has had a few rough outings recently, but overall his performance this year has been very credible.

Check out this comparison of their careers so far.

Matusz: 201.1 career innings, 215 hits, 159/70 K/BB, 7.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 9.4 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.20 FIP, 4.69 ERA
Niese: 201.0 career innings, 219 hits, 163/70 K/BB 7.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 9.6 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.08 xFIP, 4.12 ERA

I think most people would say that Matusz is the better long-term prospect despite his weaker pitching this year, but I didn't realize these two pitchers were so close. I had Matusz as a Grade A and Niese as a Grade B in the book this year.

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Read More: Brian Matusz (P - BAL), Jon Niese (P - NYM)

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don't forget john

Matusz pitches in the AL East, while Niese is in the NL East. Very different environments.

by son.of.sourman on Sep 14, 2025 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

true

That’s true. But I still found the statistical parallels very interesting.

by John Sickels on Sep 14, 2025 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree but..

..ever since the AL EAST difficulty curve commentary started coming out, I’ve always wondered why no one has come up with (or even attempted) to figure out a useful way to statistically account for such differences (e.g. An adjusted ERA, K, BB, etc measured against league average positions). Up till now it’s just something we say, that the AL East is the toughest division, and people either agree with it or not.

by basemonkey on Sep 14, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

interesting

According to team wOBA they have 4 of the top 10 teams.

by JFP on Sep 14, 2025 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Phillies, Nats, and Marlins have had pretty good offenses the last few years, so it’s not like Niese is facing all NL West offenses…

I just made myself sad :(

"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"

by Ivdown on Sep 15, 2025 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I think you still gotta take Matusz, easy

Not only is he pitching against tougher competition, but his scouting reports have been stronger than Niese’s, generally speaking.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 14, 2025 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

+1

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Sep 14, 2025 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I live in NYC and..

..I watch both Mets and Orioles games frequently. I think I’ve caught pretty much every Matusz start at least. And, the statistical similarities are uncanny, but just based on your feel of the games they’ve played, they are both very different pitchers.

I feel like Niese has had a solid showing at times getting good breaks. He hasn’t necessarily dominated MLB hitters though but has pitched well out of jams for a young man. With Matusz, he started the season strong, then had some major hiccups in the middle of the year. They weren’t as severe as his stats might suggest because he had a tremendous amount of inherited runners score by a bad overworked bullpen. The worst example of that ive seen in a long time. His recent stretch, he’s been flat-out dominant against MLB batters, esp. Lefties. He still needs to refine managing the running game and pitching from the stretch (which I think Niese does better at the moment), as well as pitching to opposite-handed batters, which isn’t surprising for a young arm.

by basemonkey on Sep 14, 2025 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

One additional thing...

The primary difference to me is subjective. I just feel like you see a lot more batters with confused looks or bailing out or getting fooled or walk away from the box dejectedly vs. Matusz. He’s not the type to overpower batters by trying to throw harder and harder. He’s the type that gets into batters’ heads and frustrates the heck out of them.

by basemonkey on Sep 14, 2025 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

The stats

suggest that your eyes may be deceiving you.

Niese has a slightly higher k rate. Their swinging strike rates are identical, 8%. Niese gets slightly more Ks. Their line-drive rates are very similar. They are different types of pitchers, of course. Matusz throws a slider, Niee a cutter. Niese relies on that more than matusz relies on his slider. Niese throws a few more curves.

A main difference is that Niese is a much more pronounced groundball pitcher.

If one goes by their career line, and not recent months, or impressions of dominance not borne out by the fact he gets fewer Ks and the swinging strike rate is identical, Niese has been as good if not better. His career xfip is 4.01, matusz’s is 4.57. Which seems to me to just about cover the difference in leagues, although he has had to face the Yanks, Rays, Boston and Toronto a lot. At this stage

by wobatus on Sep 14, 2025 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

while I tend to agree that Matusz is a higher ceiling prospect.....

Niese has had a few thoroughly dominate games this year. The second game of a doubleheader I was at earlier this year, he threw a complete game 1 hitter where he was untouchable throughout. He had a run of four starts in August where he allowed 1 run in each of the starts with a 24K/6BB in 25 innings. Not saying I wouldn’t take Matusz long term but John’s B ranking and the way Niese has performed has been a very pleasant surprise this year and gives hope that Niese can at least be a slightly above league average pitcher for a good amount of time. Not trying to nitpick, but the “good breaks” comment is a little slap in the face to a guy who has been pitching behind ZERO offense all year. Give him a league average offense with a touch of pop (the Mets swing at pitches with less authority than RuPaul) and Niese is a 14-16 game winner. Alas…….

by thehitonecafe on Sep 14, 2025 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

The Orioles offense is anything to write home about either

by Kazanovicz on Sep 14, 2025 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

True

This is very very true. Good point.

by thehitonecafe on Sep 15, 2025 10:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Didn't mean the "good breaks" comment to mean a thing...

Matusz pitches behind an awful bullpen (tons of inherited runners scored), bad run support (among worst 10 most of the year), bad defense. These statements are facts that are born out statistically. Before Showalter came onboard to completely change the team, these Orioles were on route to lose 100+ games and challenge for all-time losses. The Mets as a team has things that fall short, but overall, it’s a better team.

Matusz faces at least 2-3 of the top lineups in the majors as division rivals, whereas Niese has the benefit of facing at least 1 team (Nats, maybe also Marlins) that will use inexperienced players every now and then and no DH. He also pitches in a pitchers’ park with power-sapping alleys, whereas Matusz pitches in a famous Hitters’ park, Camden Yards.

Add all of this up and I call it “good breaks.” That being said, Niese is a solid underrated prospect/young guy. If you asked me if I’d take a player like that on my team, you bet I will. I am not one to buy into hype. I say if a player is showing he can play, the sky’s the limit on him, esp. the kids who just seem to overachieve no matter what the experts say he will do.

by basemonkey on Sep 14, 2025 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

How about we call them "bad breaks"...

…for both pitchers. I guess it’s a little surprising that we’re even nitpicking here because a year ago to 1.5 years ago people would have laughed this debate out of the room. The progress that niese has made is pretty astounding considering John was the most bullish rating niese as a solid B. Others had him as a 5/ swingman type. And matusz as a top pitching prospect in milb. I’d take both in my rotation in a heartbeat. Again, I’m impressed niese has made it into a conversation including matusz.

by thehitonecafe on Sep 15, 2025 10:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I can agree with that.

I guess this whole conversation is more a credit to Niese.

I really mean it when I think the sky’s the limit for him. I’ve watched baseball for a few decades before Internet and sophisticated stats, and all such things seem to make it feel more inevitable that the highly regarded guys will become stars and the not-so-regarded guys won’t. Baseball is filled with as many aberrations to the norm that it’s not so unusual to see guys like Niese surprise you and have a pretty solid career; and sometimes along the way, you’ll see plenty of higher touted players phased out of the game.

by basemonkey on Sep 15, 2025 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

completely agree

spot on dude.

by thehitonecafe on Sep 16, 2025 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd go with Matusz

but it is pretty close as John indicates. Matusz’s carer xfip is 4.57. Niese’s is 4.01. That covers a lot of NL East versus Al East/DH differences. Niese’s GB rate is 47.7%. Matusz is at 34.8%. Swinging strike rate is identical. Niese has slightly more Ks. Matusz has a slightly below average HR/FB rate. Very similar results. Roughly the same age.

by wobatus on Sep 14, 2025 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

You're comparing xFIP

compiled in 200 innings? I’d wait a while myself. I think Niese is, and has been, underrated though.

by blackoutyears on Sep 14, 2025 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

Although please note I also compared strikeout rates, swinging strike rate, groundball rate, and in an above post a few other things. Based on his batted ball and peropheral profile, Niese has been as good even adjusting for leagues, I’d wager.

by wobatus on Sep 14, 2025 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I concur with blackoutyears

It’s still too early, esp. with LHPs. Both are extremely young guys who haven’t yet strung together back to back years of any particular trend of MLB service. You never know when (if ever) that proverbial light clicks on. At this very early stage, it’s highly likely that any statistical similarity is coincidence.

Remember that a former Oriole prospect (later Mets) who I’d argue had a better minorleague career than Niese, John Maine, enjoyed pretty strong first few seasons. His career has gone up and down since then, but he’s a case study in why one should wait and see on pitching prospects before making big declarations.

by basemonkey on Sep 14, 2025 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Maine didn't really regress, his arm just fell off

I’m not sure if that really qualifies as a “wait and see” situation.

by psiogen on Sep 14, 2025 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Regressed vs. Arm fell off is..

..functionally the same to me. Is there a difference? It’s not a knock against him, but health is a factor and can affect performance even when he’s in there.

by basemonkey on Sep 15, 2025 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions

There has to be a difference

One is a reflection on ability, the other bad luck with health. Did Strasburg regress last month? Chris Carpenter has always pitched well. When healthy. I guarantee the player would draw the distinction…

by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying

anything is written in stone. I’m comparing their performances over 200 innings apiece. If you just look at this year, about 160 innings, Niese strikes out about half a batter more, and his swinging strike rate is 8.3 to Matusz’s 7.6 (regardless of how dejected or confused the batters look walking back to the dugout). He walks slightly fewer, 2.98 to 3.2, so there are fewer baserunners for luck to be involved. He gives up fewer flyballs, 32% to 44.8%, so regardless of the park, he’s less likely to give up homers (he actually gave up 19 to matusz’s 18). But not by much, since his hr/fb rate thus year was 12.1% to Matusz’s 8.2%. To some extent that is probably luck, although I don’t subscribe to the theory it’s completely luck in all cases. But given the amount of innings they’ve pitched it could very easily be luck and reverse. Their line-drive rates are fairly similar, with Matusz giving up slightly fewer, 20.4% for Niese to 19.3% for Matusz. That may feed an impression of more dominance potentia, but is likely just noise. He also induced more infield flies.l

Niese’s xfip this year is 3.91 to Matusz’s 4.63. That’s a fairly large spread. Sure, it’s limited innings, but based on the things that normalize quickest and have less luck involved, niese has had slightly better numbers. I don’t deny it isn’t a large sample.

As far as league differences, it may even be more pronounced then I grant. The Yanks and Sox have the highest wOBAs, and it may be they’d be even higher but for the fact that the pitchers in the division may also be better than in the NL East. Although the Sox don’t have 1/3rd their starting line-up, and the yanks have several playing with injuries, Texeira, A-Rod and Swisher, so I think they have been slipping, and indeed in September the Yanks have a wOBA of .318, the Red Sox .336, while the Phils are at .370 and the Marlins .357-sss and meaningless, but you can’t look at Matusz’s recent run of starts and say, a ha, dominance potential, and ignore the numbers the 2 pitchers have put up over time, and especially then say hey, that’s only 200 innings. In any event, without looking further into it, I assume .72 in xfip covers the league differences.

So roughly similar thus far. I give Matusz the advantage simply based on scouting reports, maybe more of a mix of pitches, and historically at least, about an extra mph on his fastball. I’d hesitate to put him all that much above Niese, for the simple reason that Niese has one particular advantage, to me, the much higher groundball rate, without any disadvantage thus far in true outcome stats like K/BB.

by wobatus on Sep 15, 2025 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Point is

You could probably find many situations where two players looked roughly similar for this sample size in their initial major league exposure. It’s worth mentioning that Niese has something like five times more minor league innings than Matusz, which works to Matusz favor both in terms of illustrating just how rapid his rise has been as well as providing context for his “struggles”. At this point Matusz has nearly twice as many major league IP (202) as minor league IP (113). He’s a bit of outlier imo, and potentially resistant to these sorts of comparisons.

by blackoutyears on Sep 15, 2025 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

fair points

I also think it should be pointed out that Niese is coming from a different trajectory. he may have been more highly thought of if he had gone to college and done well there. His numbers in AA were not quite as good as Matusz’s, for example, but he was a year younger at that level. I don’t deny matusz is the higher upside guy, just that it is close. And that people discount Niese specifically because he started as a no name 18 year old and worked his way up.

by wobatus on Sep 15, 2025 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don't think we should be slaves to stats...

..only.

Based on such small sample sizes one could have argued that Niese is or will be a better pitcher than David Price because he posted a stronger statistical year in his first full season? I just want to remind us that stats are very important tools to evaluate performance, but they are not an end in themselves. They are a means to an end.

by basemonkey on Sep 15, 2025 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Niese

does have a lower xfip than Price this year and over their careers. :)

I said I think Matusz is better, more upside, so I am not sure why that is making me a slave to the stats, since it simply isn’t reflected in the stats. Maybe if i go look at the average runs scored by opponents faced by the 2 guys I could come up with something where Matusz trounces Niese.

I get what you are saying and i agree. But while 200 innings is not a lot for e.r.a., or something like that, it’s a pretty decent sample going with K/BB and things like that. ot a huge sample, but you don’t ned to completely ignore it.

by wobatus on Sep 16, 2025 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a great example

Price struggled mightily in 2009. Not saying Matusz will follow his path and dominate next year, but even excellent players struggle sometimes, and it’s generally worth noting that they’ve had much less minor league development time than less heralded guys.

Wobatus, I’d say that Niese is underrated, but I’ve been saying that for two or three years and that’s as far as one can go imo. Saying that it’s ‘close’ between the two, right now today, doesn’t imo tell us much about where these players will be in three years.

I’ve got to start ignoring these comparisons. They always seem so arbitrary to me. lol

by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

It's funny

that the great example really isn’t pitching much better than Niese this year either. Albeit in this case the league difference swamps the statistical variation as far as xfip is concerned. Price’s war is 3.9 to Niese’s 1.9, and I think that takes the leagues into account. Matusz is at 2, so maybe he is already slightly better.

In 2-3 years i agree, it’ll e clearer and i expect matusz (Price too obviously) to have distanced themselves, but i also think Niese will be fairly impressive.

by wobatus on Sep 16, 2025 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Another Factor

You have to consider the defense behind the pitchers. According to Baseball Info Solutions (via Bill James Online), Baltimore has the third-worst defense in the AL this year, with -24 runs saved.

The Mets have an above-average defense, saving 29 runs this year.

That’s in addition to the AL East vs. NL East difference, noted above by other posters.

by RM on Sep 14, 2025 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

That shouldn't really affect their K/BB/HR numbers, though

But it might explain why Matusz is underperforming his FIP.

by psiogen on Sep 14, 2025 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions

It's close

First thing I’m looking at here is stuff. Their repertoires are somewhat similar, but Matusz throws slightly harder, and uses a slider rather than a cutter. I’ll call Niese’s cutter a SL here, just for easier comparison.

avg velocity:
FB_ SL_ CB_ CH
89.6 85.7 74.2 81.2 Niese
90.2 81.3 76.1 81.8 Matusz

effectiveness (run value per 100 pitches):
FB SL CB CH
-0.66 +0.84 +0.29 -2.61 Niese
-0.27 +1.04 +0.71 -0.98 Matusz

It looks like there is somewhat similar effectiveness on the breaking pitches, with Niese just a bit behind on the fastball, but Matusz having the better change up. The main reason Niese has been more effective is that he throws that change a lot less (4.6% vs. 18.5% of pitches), and relies more heavily on his breaking stuff, especially the cutter (22.8% vs. 7.8% for Matusz’s slider).

Looking at peripherals, Niese has the higher groundball rate, but despite that, hasn’t allowed less HR. Part of this is because Matusz seems to be skilled at inducing infield flys, with an 11.5% rate so far in MLB, and an eyepopping 20.9% rate for his minor league career. This suggests that Matusz in the long run will have an ability to outpitch his xFIP (which I believe is based on HR/FB rather than HR/OFF), and perform closer to his FIP of 4.18. While tERA has other weaknesses, it is likely spot on for Matusz, who has had a league average rate of HR/OFF this year. That has Matusz at 4.34.

For Niese, his 4.45 tERA probably underrates him a bit, as he seems to have been a bit “unlucky” with a high rate of HR/OFF. With a league average rate there, he would have allowed about 2.9 less HR, lowering tERA and ERA by about .22 runs. If there were an xtERA stat, it would probably be about 4.23. Not too far off his 3.91 xFIP.

At least part of the difference in the perceptions of both as prospects might have to do with the expectations that were on Matusz as a #4 overall pick, vs. Niese as a 5th rounder. Additionally, Niese didn’t really project quite as clearly until about mid season last year, after he had successfully added the cutter, and improved his fastball grip/movement.

That said, I think Matusz may still have a tic more upside. Scouting reports had him throwing a bit harder in the minors, and he did average 91.5 mph with his FB in his 8 starts last season. So I think there might be just a bit more there for him down the road. Add in of course, that the above numbers were in the more difficult league and park. But I do think both guys will have similar careers as #2/#3 SP types, both look like they could end up commanding 3 or 4 good pitches, which will keep batters off balance and make it easier to battle through when one pitch isn’t there that day.

by acerimusdux on Sep 15, 2025 4:52 PM EDT reply actions

great stuff

as always, acer. Spot on.

by wobatus on Sep 15, 2025 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow

that’s awesome stuff right there. Great job Acer! Much appreciated!

by thehitonecafe on Sep 16, 2025 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

my take

My take on all this: I really like Matusz and I think he’s going to be a very good/sometimes great pitcher, and i don’t regret the Grade A I gave him.

But Niese is underrated, and so far in his career has kept pace with Matusz in terms of major league performance. The post was meant to praise Niese, not diss Matusz. While I expect that Matusz will end up having the better career in the long run, Niese also has a good chance to be very successful.

by John Sickels on Sep 16, 2025 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

I think most took it that way, John

but you have to admit that ‘kept pace…in terms of major league performance’ loses some of it’s potency when the context is 200 IP. That’s basically one full major league season, and stranger things have happened in that amount of time.

by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

For the Record John, Niese didn't develop his key pitch (the cutter) until late in his minor league career

Niese in 08 came up to the Majors without a cutter. In 09, he really worked and developed the pitch. Thus I’d imagine your gradings were “biased” by the fact that prior to that he basically was just a 90MPH fastball guy who relied upon a curveball… and had nothing else.

by garik16 on Sep 16, 2025 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Stats

Couple of errors I noticed…Matusz and Niese have the same number of BBs, so how does Niese have a better BB/9? (Fangraphs has them at 3.11 for Matusz, 3.13 for Niese) …Why use FIP for Matusz and xFIP for Niese? In any case, I agree that’s it’s interesting, and a comparison that I wouldn’t have thought of. Give me Matusz though.

by killa on Sep 16, 2025 6:54 PM EDT reply actions