2010 Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 9:00 AM EDT

2010 Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects in Review

Here is a review of the 2010 Orioles prospect list, originally published December 4, 2025. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.

1) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade A: 4-12, 5.28 ERA for the Orioles, 100/51 K/BB, 144 hits in 130 innings. I know Orioles fans are disappointed, but I still believe he's going to be a really good pitcher eventually.

2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: 1.85 ERA, 64/34 K/BB in 73 innings for Triple-A Norfolk, 5.23 ERA with 34/40 K/BB in 72 innings for the Orioles. Command the issue, as expected.

3) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B:   2.69 ERA combined between Double-A Bowie and Norfolk, 101/43 K/BB in 130 innings, 120 hits, 2.67 GO/AO. I love this guy and I think he deserves more attention than he receives.

4) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade B:   .278/.328/.481 for Norfolk, .210/.222/.242 so far in the majors with a horrible BB/K (1/22 in 62 at-bats).

5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B:   0-10, 5.73 in 14 starts for Norfolk, 50/22 K/BB in 71 innings, 86 hits. Yuck. Sore shoulder.

6) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-:   .264/.331/.412 for Norfolk. Blah.

7) Matt Hobgood, RHP, Grade B-:   4.91 ERA, 49/34 K/BB in 77 innings for Low-A Delmarva, 1.98 GO/AO. Like the grounders, but unimpressive otherwise. Still very young, equivalent to a college freshman. Will cut him some slack for now.

8) Mychal Givens, SS, Grade B-:   Just seven games for Delmarva in May, 4-for-18, has missed most of season with hand injury.

9) Brandon Waring, 3B-1B, Grade C+:   .254/.350/.481 with 19 homers, 149 strikeouts in 401 at-bats for Bowie. Like the power, but already 24 and the strikeout rate is scary.

10) Kam "The Almighty" Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+:   6.85 ERA with 31/10 K/BB in 22 innings for Norfolk, 30 hits. Blech. If he can't figure things out soon, he should check into this for a new job opportunity.

11) Luis Lebron, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John surgery.

12) Steve Johnson, RHP, Grade C+:   5.01 ERA, 110/67 K/BB in 124 innings for Bowie, 121 hits, 22 homers, 0.49 GO/AO. The extreme fly ball tendency is notable. I still think he has some sleeper potential.

13) Brandon Cooney, RHP, Grade C+:   0.55 ERA for High-A Frederick, 19/7 K/BB in 16 innings. Promoted to Bowie, 4.41 ERA with 25/18 K/BB in 35 innings. 2.47 GO/AO combined. If he can sharpen the command. . .

14) Ryan Berry, RHP, Grade C+:   3.31 ERA, 99/34 K/BB in 114 innings between Delmarva and Frederick, 103 hits, 1.56 GO/AO. I like him.

15) Ashur Tolliver, LHP, Grade C+:   6.00 ERA, 25/15 K/BB in 30 innings for Aberdeen in the NY-P, 30 hits. Not very good.

16) Caleb Joseph, C, Grade C:   .241/.308/.388 for Bowie, 11 homers, 28/51 BB/K in 320 at-bats. 26% of runners caught, passed ball and error rate are high.

17) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C: 4.79 ERA, 68/34 K/BB in 113 innings, 124 hits for Norfolk. Hasn't been the same since he got hurt.

18) Michael Ohlman, C, Grade C:   .197/.299/.293 in 73 games split between Delmarva and Bluefield in the Appy League, 29/79 BB/K in 229 at-bats. Serious contact issues are short-circuiting his power potential.

19) Xavier Avery, OF, Grade C:   .280/.349/.389 in 109 games for Frederick, 28 steals, 42/96 BB/K in 447 at-bats. Just promoted to bowie, 4-for-21 so far with two steals. Speed is very intriguing, no power yet.

20) Cameron Coffey, LHP, Grade C: Just coming back from Tommy John, six innings in the GCL thus far, 10 hits, seven runs.

Matusz hasn't done what people expected, but I think he will eventually. Two other pitchers I like a lot are Britton and Berry. There wasn't much hitting on this list to begin with, and most of it has been disappointing. There are also too many people named "Brandon" in this system.

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Read More: Xavier Avery (OF - BAL), Brian Matusz (P - BAL), Troy Patton (P - BAL), Josh Bell (3B - BAL), Luis Lebron (P - BAL), Steve Johnson (P - BAL), Jake Arrieta (P - BAL), Brandon Snyder (1B - BAL), Caleb Joseph (C - BAL), Brandon Waring (3B - BAL), Brandon Erbe (P - BAL), Baltimore Orioles

Comments

Joe Mahoney

has had a breakout year especially since moving up to Bowie. How much has he improved his stock this season?

by awoodwa3 on Aug 17, 2025 11:33 AM EDT reply actions

He's easily a top 10 prospect in the system for me, maybe top 6.

www.oriolesprospects.com/forums

by Jordan Tuwiner on Aug 17, 2025 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe I caught him on a bad day

but my last time in Bowie he just looked lost at 1B.

by ADLC on Aug 18, 2025 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Britton

He seems to be gathering a lot of attention now. He was number 10 on the BA mid-season top 25.

by wobatus on Aug 17, 2025 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

Rank these pitchers in A+ or lowers

by awoodwa3 on Aug 17, 2025 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry

Ryan Berry, Bobby Bundy, Jake Cowan, Cameron Coffey, Aaron Wirsch

by awoodwa3 on Aug 17, 2025 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Berry, Bundy, Coffey, Cowan, Wirsch

Back 3 could go in any order.

www.oriolesprospects.com/forums

by Jordan Tuwiner on Aug 17, 2025 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

This system has had a really bad year

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 17, 2025 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

A lot of the guys having the most promising years in the O’s system are not even part of this list (Mahoney, Hoes, Angle, Adams)

by awoodwa3 on Aug 17, 2025 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

yep.

by John Sickels on Aug 17, 2025 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

And the young major league talent has been depressing as well

Wieters, Tillman, Bergesen, Jones…

The handful of the guys who have exceeded expectations (Guthrie, Scott, Wigginton, Patterson) are over 30.

Pretty much a worst case scenario year for the O’s.

by dkdc on Aug 18, 2025 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Brandon Erbe

Obviously this year has been a major disappointment for Erbe. Does this season reflect a definitive move to the bullpen or can his struggles be attributed to injuries? Either way where do people think he starts and finishes the 2011 season?

by awoodwa3 on Aug 17, 2025 3:14 PM EDT reply actions

Worse. He actually had shoulder surgery recently (August 13th).

his surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder last Friday was a success.

http://www.masnsports.com/steve_melewski/2010/08/updates-on-erbe-klein.html

Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Aug 17, 2025 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

It was technically deemed a success..

..but you never quite know until he is in there playing, and puts up a solid year or so of games.

When these surgeries happen, what defines them as “successful” is the effect of the surgery on the patient’s life going forward, not its contribution to the baseball career. So most of these will get called success. When Snyder had his labrum tear surgery, it was called successful too, but not until a full year of play was posted, did he eventually give an interview that recalled how concerned he was about how it threatened the baseball career.

by basemonkey on Aug 18, 2025 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Anyone down on Matusz...

if they exist at all, should just watch him pitch. He’s got the look of a good #2 starter in the future…even if that future isn’t immediate.

by SenorGato on Aug 18, 2025 2:55 AM EDT reply actions

Yes

I’ve seen him three times this year and he’s simply learning at the highest level as John says. He’s also still maturing physically. I still believe that at least three above average starters will emerge from the Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta/Britton group if they all stay healthy.

by blackoutyears on Aug 18, 2025 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Matusz will be fine

If you look at his numbers closely, he basically gets a touch too many flyballs, dominates lefties, gets exposed vs. RH batters, a lot of inherited runners allowed to score by a bad bullpen, and a tick or two unlucky on the BABIP. A per pitch breakdown shows that he has above-average swings and misses on his offerings. Good Ks. Good control.

Most of the toughest hurdles have already been crossed. He knows how to throw strikes, and, he does so without compromising the plus repetoire . Lefties tend to take extra time to develop sometimes. Some think it’s because the fact that the majority of hitters they will face are bad match ups (righties), so it hinges on their ability to develop the 3rd pitch. A lot of people presumed Matusz would adjust really quickly because he already had 4 good pitches, the change up being one of them, which traditionally is the equalizer vs. Opposite-handed batters.

by basemonkey on Aug 18, 2025 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Flyballs

are probably the issue going forward. Fangraphs had that nice article on minor league groundball rates and their translation (or lack of) to the majors the other day. Matusz has shown quite a decrease, and the fact that he had solid GB rates over that small number of minor league starts was probably misleading.

by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2025 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the sample is still small enuff that...

..you can see it going either way.

To me the key is that he’s a pitcher who features change up. He hasn’t been able to spot that pitch as consistently lately as he did last year or earlier this season. But, change up guys tend to produce a lot of popups and flyouts. Hitters get caught with a fast swing on those pitches. Decent MLB hitters can stay in between the fastball and offspeed pitch enough to make contact on the inside or tip of the bat. Some of those will drop in. Taken with the really unlucky BABIP (which I’m slightly inclined to believe is due to so many Os fielders playing out of position all year and contributing to iffy defense), I think Matusz could rebound fairly easily without changing much.

Overall I don’t think it should be any surprise that he’s had growing pains. I’m not worried about his flyballs because I think they might prove to be aberrations. Now with Tillman, I am not sure the same thing applies.

by basemonkey on Aug 19, 2025 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Sample size

works both ways though. His minor league SS was small enough that it may be unreliable re GB rates, and his aggressive promotion makes his major league performance equally subject to debate. That was the point of the fangraphs article, that he had so few minor league outings that it was hard to know which rate was reliable, if either. He had 9 GO to 8 AO last night, right? That’s a step in the right direction.

by blackoutyears on Aug 20, 2025 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Heat's been a problem

Matusz has hasn’t look real good on hot days, and there have been a whole lot this summer in Baltimore (the average has been about 90, way above normal). It looks like he gets tried much quicker. That definitely something, he’ll have to work on in the offseason.

Otherwise, I think he’ll be fine. I’m disappointed because I really thought he’d be the Rookie of the Year. But it looks like he’s just going through the struggles many young pitchers go through as they adjust to the league.

by edsachs1 on Aug 19, 2025 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions

2011 Delmarva

The Delmarva team should be stocked with a majority of the O’s young talent next year. The core of their pitching prospects will likely be the rotation (Klein, Coffey, Wirsch, Henry, Cowan, etc) and their lineup will likely have Machado, Narron, Givens, Mummey, and Ohlman. It will be interesting to see how all of these guys perform and how playing time is divided.

by awoodwa3 on Aug 18, 2025 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

Hobgood

Matt Hobgood will likely repeat at low A as well.

by awoodwa3 on Aug 18, 2025 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Hobgood missed 20 days and had to recover from back spasms (listening to Delmarva broadcast). Wonder if that affected his velocity or stuff before they finally had to DL him.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Aug 19, 2025 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

just an awful year for this organization...

Not just limited to the farm system, but the graduated prospects as well like Tillman, Wieters, etc. Some of the guys have started to come around (like Jones) and Matusz is better than his current ERA shows, but still, to compete in the AL East, you have to develop players better than they have.

Baseball-Intellect and THT

Recent Update: Scouting Nick Franklin and Clinton vs. Allen Webster

by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 18, 2025 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Per that critique

what have they specifically done wrong, Alex? I’m especially interested in your opinion on how they’ve (mis)handled their young pitchers.

by blackoutyears on Aug 18, 2025 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Ditto...what have they done specifically wrong this year?

Outside of the cases of Matusz and Wieters, they’ve been mostly pretty disciplined about not rushing prospects.

What did they do wrongnthis year according to you?

by basemonkey on Aug 18, 2025 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont think they rushed Matusz/Wieters at all

Tillman has been yanked around a bit, Arrieta is slightly rushed, Bell is slightly rushed. Avery at AA is confusing, but overall i dont think this is the reason all the young players are struggling.

"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law

by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 19, 2025 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think they were so much either..

..but, it’s a valid point when we see pitching prospects who have not quite refined their game, say, on holding runners and pitching from the stretch. In fairness, nowadays a lot of teams advance their pitchers whether or not they’ve mastered such secondary skills. In the old days, we saw much more 25-27 yr olds who stayed back just so they can develop his skills. Again I think Matusz is a special case because he was so clearly advanced on 4 pitches with command, but it’s an arguable point. Another big red flag to me is advancing pitchers who have never yet received a chance to build up innings and conditioning in the arm. Though here, again Matusz is a different case because he did accumulate college innings already.

With Wieters, I don’t think he was rushed. He had college experience, showed excellent contact, power, solid fielding, and strike zone judgment. What more do you want?

by basemonkey on Aug 19, 2025 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just saying that Wieters and Matusz were fastracked..

..but critics might argue they were rushed.

by basemonkey on Aug 19, 2025 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

For me

both qualify as guys who have to learn at the major league level. David Price’s first major league exposure didn’t go swimmingly, and he was even demoted, but he’s settled in. Not saying Matusz is the caliber of Price, but if he takes a similar step forward next year relative to his ability everyone will chalk this up to a necessary learning curve. Wieters is as good a prospect as Price, and I expect he’ll be fine. Or Alex Gordon. lol

by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2025 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions