Thinking about Neil Walker
One of the better rookies in 2010 has been Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates, hitting .306/.352/.480 in 356 at-bats. He has an OPS+ of 124. His defense at second isn't very good, at least according to the advanced metrics, although he's new to the position and deserves some slack there. But the bat has been quite impressive.
Is this luck?
This Fangraphs piece from last week makes the point that Walker's hitting is strong this year despite his unattractive BB/K ratio of 24/76, and that a high BABIP is helping him. These two factors don't auger well for his ability to carry this to next year.
I'm interested in the observations of Pirates fans or others who have seen him play this year. Is he getting lucky, or has he made genuine progress? I don't know, and I'd like to see what others think.
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Pirates fans?
I’m interested in the observations of Pirates fans or others who have seen him play this year.
I’m interested in finding out whether there are still Pirates fans.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 14, 2025 9:27 PM EDT reply actions
ouch!
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Sep 14, 2025 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Here!
He’s looked good to me (duh!). The BAPIP isn’t totally sustainable, but if he keeps hitting line drives at 23%, he could keep it at an above average rate. If his BA can stay in the .280-300 range (the Ks are a concern, but with his power and how hard he hits the ball when he does, I think that’s plausible) I think he could be an above average starting 2B at least through his 6 years in Pittsburgh.
Either way, great to see the hometown kid doing well in his home park. He caught a first pitch from Bill Mazeroski like a week ago, really cool scene.
by jseiner on Sep 14, 2025 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
-1 KBR
that is one of the most faithful Fan Bases in the MLB
-especially when you consider all that they’ve had to endure
there are lots of Pirates fans out there still…. just go to scout.com on Fox Sports boy there area lots of ’em…
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Sep 15, 2025 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions
The Pirates play in a gorgeous ballpark
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions
he's not
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Sep 15, 2025 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Jays i think
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Sep 15, 2025 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
That's weird
Must be some ex-lover or something that messed with his head.
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s obviously something emotional going on.
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
With you?
Yeah, probably.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks man
I appreciate this support. It is obvious that this guy wants to make personal attacks rather than actually discuss baseball.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, you made a Pirate fans joke, which is pretty common
And he starts spewing off with this weird stuff about who you root for and emotions and stuff. It’s rather odd.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I am also a Maple Leafs fan and I am easily able to laugh at the futility of the current Toronto sports scene. Some guys take their favorite teams way too personally.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Flagged
It is obvious that you have a personal issue with me. What have I done that has upset you so much?
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL...
I am assuming this is a joke.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Says the A's fan.
When was the last time you guys sold out a home game, again?
by Vlad on Sep 15, 2025 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't KBR
a Jays fan?
http://bullpenbanter.com
by gatling on Sep 15, 2025 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
A's Fan?
LOL. I think I have been pretty vocal in my beliefs that the A’s need to overhaul the way they develop offense. I am a Jays fan for all those curious.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I doubt there are many more....
Jays fans than Pirates fans. Lol Jays may be even worse off because they have to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox every year. The Rays have been good too. TOUGH division. Lol
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 16, 2025 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Very tough division
The Jays have gone through some very rough years. We are looking to turn the corner with our very impressive young pitching but JP Ricciardi did a number on our fanbase.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
How did you develop your expertise with the NL Central
It seems to be an obsession.
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
What are you talking about?
I have an obsession with the NL Central? Please explain. I don’t think I have ever said anything bad about the NL Central before so I would love to hear your reasoning. Personally I have a soft spot for the Pirates as I loved those 90-92 teams and I have always missed the Jays/Brewers rivalry of the 1980’s.
So once again, please explain my ‘obsession’ with the NL Central.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, why would he ever pay attention to anything but his own team?
This is a really stupid discussion.
Maybe the point is that while he loves the Jays a lot, he loves baseball even more. Following only one or a few teams can get rather boring. Gotta follow all 30, yo!
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I love the Jays but I LOVE baseball. I can sit down and watch any two teams play (except the Pirates……I kid!!!!!). Jetsam is still furious at me for saying that Mat Gamel cannot play MLB quality 3B and he has taken this to mean that I hate the Brewers (which I don’t) and I must have personal vendetta against the NL Central.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I honestly don't get why the Brewers extended Corey Hart
They should’ve sold high on Hart and transitioned Gamel to right field.
I suppose maybe they didn’t want to deal with Braun and Gamel on the corners, but Hart isn’t too good out there himself.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Gamel
I am guessing they either:
A. Move Fielder in the offseason and transition him to firstbase
B. Move Gamel in the offseason to add a starting pitcher
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think it's one or the other, too.
I think they should probably deal Fielder - they desperately need the pitching.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Because he was cheap?
This may be shocking to you, but you may be wrong about “selling high.” The support for that argument is thin. Braun has been doing really well on one corner.
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
C'mon stop BSing
Repeating fabrications about Gamel are just one player. You’re assumption or perhaps deliberate distortion is incorrect. I don’t think its a vendetta.
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I have given numerous reasons regarding Gamel's defense
I am not fabricating evidence. Both the stats and the scouting reports agree that he is not a major league quality 3B. If you can find me some respected scouts/experts (not employed by the Brewers) who feel otherwise that would be appreciated. To show that I am not fabricating anything about Gamel’s defense here are some quotes from respected sources on Gamel:
Keith Law:
He looks hopeless at third base, with bad hands and feet for the position, and while he has plenty of arm he tends to sidearm the ball, which isn’t going to help his throwing accuracy.
John Sickels:
Defense remains the main problem. He’s cut his error rate this year…18 errors thus far for a .906 fielding percentage, very poor but not as bad as last year’s horrific .826 mark. He has the range and arm strength but may simply never have the reliability. He runs well enough to play an outfield corner, so that’s an option eventually, although it would be more convenient if the Brewers had a DH option of course.
Andy Beherans:
Gamel is a defensively challenged third baseman (eight errors in ‘09, 32 in ’08), but there’s never been much doubt about his bat.
Mike Jones (writer for Bleacher Report):
Although Mat Gamel has only been up with the Brewers for a month, perhaps we’ve seen enough of him to know how he’ll project as a pro: that he’ll bring power to the lineup, but will be a defensive liability outside of first base.
Which leads me to this question: are we too beholden to Mat Gamel’s potential as opposed to the reality of what Gamel brings to this season’s team? Like Matt LaPorta last year, Gamel is a potentially excellent hitter with below-average defensive skills (as evidenced by the last game between the Brewers and Rockies.
Matthew Whipps (writer for the Diamond Cutter):
Gamel just doesn’t have the footwork or the accuracy for the hot corner and with a slew of players without skill positions it should be interesting to see where he winds up.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2025 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
This is absurd
I never suggested or implied that he didn’t or shouldn’t pay attention to anything but his own team. Why don’t you use more extreme distortion?
by JetSam on Sep 16, 2025 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay yeah
I’m done with you.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2025 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I was at the game tonight
I was at the game tonight and he went to turn a double play and absolutely booted the ball off his glove. It didn’t take a bad hop, he was backing up on the ball. If he can play D he’ll be ok, but as of right now it’s not a great start.
by MEF on Sep 14, 2025 11:10 PM EDT reply actions
fine defense
I think he’s a far better athlete than people realize. He was the #11 overall pick in the 2004 draft based largely on his athleticism. I’ve actually been encouraged by his defense. His errors, like the one tonight mentioned by MEF, are exactly the kind of errors you’d expect from someone new to the position. The kind of errors that usually get ironed out with repetition.
by my dixie wrecked on Sep 15, 2025 1:40 AM EDT reply actions
His defense is pretty crap, actually.
Hands are OK, but he doesn’t cover much ground at all, especially up the middle. Looks like he’d be a lot better at 3B.
by Vlad on Sep 15, 2025 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He may show improvement in some areas.
On the pivot, for example. But the range I think is going to continue to be an issue as long as he’s there.
by Vlad on Sep 15, 2025 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
he has been playing 2B for about 6 months
so it will get better
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"I’ve been beer-cussed!" Steelfever
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Sep 15, 2025 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Not the most solid logic...
Skip schumaker isn’t fun to watch at all
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
by Dttl89 on Sep 15, 2025 5:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
On his range...
his range is underrated. I have seen him get to some balls even the best fielders wouldn’t get to, but I have also seen him not get to balls the average fielder should. He will get better. How much better is the question. I could see him developing into at least league average at some point.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
"I have seen him get to some balls even the best fielders wouldn’t get to"
Why do I find this to be extremely unlikely?
If it’s a ball that he could get to, I’d put a hefty wager up that the best fielder in the game would be able to get to it.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 15, 2025 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
He is athletic...
much more athletic than the average 2nd baseman. He has good range at times. His defense isn’t as bad as statistics make it out to be. I find it likely that he does improve a lot. I don’t expect him to be a gold glover because he seems like a sort of streaky fielder. He will make some big plays because of his athleticism and he will make just as many bad ones because of his rawness at 2nd. Give him time and he will make less mistakes. His range also suffers at time because of positioning(I know it’s weird for an infielder), but I can’t help but think that will get better. I am sure some of it has to do with terrible coaching though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Because
It is extremely unlikely
check out VEB on facebook...just search groups for Viva El Birdos
by Dttl89 on Sep 15, 2025 10:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He changed his approach...
at the end of last year and has been hitting well ever since. He has yet to have a prolonged slump this year either. I think a 290 avg with 20 HR next year is possible. I do not expect him to be a .300 hitter, but 28-290 is not out of the question. His defense is likely to improve because he is learning how to play in the big leagues. He is going to need to put in some serious work this offseason, but he has the athleticism to eventually be above average there. He has always had the talent to be able to produce like this, he just needed to make some adjustments(which he has) and he needed a position(which he has now).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 7:24 AM EDT reply actions
I could see .280/.340/.460 for Walker
His BABIP is due for regression, but I have to think some of that will be offset by natural improvement in other areas (strikeout rate, for instance).
That’s good offensive production for second base, although it’s hard to say where his defense will end up at this point.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 7:47 AM EDT reply actions
I don't know if he's going to put up the 8-9% walk rate necessary to put up that line
I buy into the power and I think he can sustain a solid batting average, but I think his OBP will probably be closer to .325-.330 if he’s batting around .280.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 15, 2025 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
It was 10% in AAA this year
It’s 6.2% in the big leagues. Walk rate typically increases a little with experience.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The adjustments he made at the end of last year
have really paid off for him, he’s been hitting the ball much harder this season as shown by the line drive rate jseiner mentioned…I doubt he’ll maintain a .300 avg but he will definitely produce solid numbers if he can continue hitting the ball as hard as he has the last year and a half, he will absolutely be a league avg or above 2B offensively, and athletically he is more than capable of adjusting to 2B defensively with solid work in the outfield, he won’t become a gold glover or a highlight reel guy but he won’t be a gaping hole in our defense
by smoked on Sep 15, 2025 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
I myself wonder if the 2010 Pirates are the worst team we've seen in a long time.
I’m not sure how much I buy it on a ranking system, but I find it interesting that the Pirates (Pythag to already be at 100 losses) have a Simple Rating Score of -2.1, and the next closest to them at the bottom is the Mariners and Cubs at -0.9. So in terms of that they are more than twice as bad as the next worst team.
If they want to avoid 110 losses next year, they’re certainly going to need Neil Walker to keep it up.
by Humbled Fan on Sep 15, 2025 11:40 AM EDT reply actions
The thing is...
even if we think Walker regresses, the Pirates still have guys like Alvarez, Tabata, McCutchen, and a few pitchers who should all get at least slightly better. Alvarez could also break out in a big way next year. Not to mention pitchers like Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris, Jeff Locke, and Rudy Owens who could all see some time in the rotation and who are all talented enough to keep them in games. They also have position players like Chase D’arnaud, Tony Sanchez, Starling Marte, Andrew Lambo, and Gorkys Hernandez who are pretty close and could provide a boost to their offense and defense. They are also likely to add a few guys through free agency who will be improvements to the team. They are not going to be this bad next year. No team will be this bad next year.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought
you guys were going to be a lot better after the first Pit-Cin series this year. There were just too many young guys to audition (e.g. Clement, Morton) at the expense of wins imo. Tabata has been a nice addition, and Walker has come on, but the pitching lacks ToR ability for me. A rotation of #3/4 ceiling guys yields exactly the results you’d expect, and as much as I like that Double-A quartet I don’t think they add a lot of octane, just more of the same. I’m crossing my fingers that the org knows what to do with Taillon and Allie. It’s been a long time since they’ve had to develop this type of pitcher.
by blackoutyears on Sep 15, 2025 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Taillon
I don’t know how much development he actually needs. He seems pretty solid. Maybe the changeup…
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't expect them to change...
their organizational philosophy and rush Taillon. He may not need too much time in the minors, but he probably doesn’t see the majors before his 21st birthday. It makes the most sense to bring him along slowly.
Blackoutyears, a rotation of #3/4 guys would be much better than what we have right now. I would hardly call guys like Duke, Ohlendorf, Morton, and Karstens #3/4 guys. That is the kind of trash they have now. I would gladly take a rotation of Morris/Locke/Mcdonald/Owens/Wilson. Would be the best Pirates rotation in years!
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't implying he should be rushed
It just doesn’t seem like there are many ways the Pirates could screw up his development, since his issues are mostly just quibbles at this point. It’s not like they need to teach him how to throw a curveball or retool his mechanics. He just needs to pitch in pro games and get repetitions.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
and it’s the Pirates. If anyone can screw up someone’s development it is them. lol
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 16, 2025 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Orem
There’s no pitcher that someone can’t screw up! lol
Seriously, though, even the best guys get their mechanics tweaked. Workload and usage patterns are an issue. General health concerns. You know…
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe
I’d say that Ohlendorf is a #3/4 guy if he can get over the hump. As is Maholm in the times I’ve seen him. Agreed that maybe the other guys they’ve thrown this year are more #4/5 types if we’re being honest. It’s easy to get excited about the Double-A guys over what’s already there, but then Zach Duke and Sean Burnett (and Gorzo) were exciting once upon a time too. Injuries and reality have a way of thwarting our hopes.
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually read an article the other day that put a nice positive spin on the Pirates future and it does have me believing slightly.
No, its doubtful the Pirates will be this bad next year or any other year. It’s one of the worst seasons ever. I’m not sure how you can be at 96 losses and still be 4 losses ahead of your Pythag record. Heck, I’m an M’s fan, in the middle of perhaps our worst season ever, and I have given up all hope of the #1 pick.
I’m not sure if I was a Pirates fans that I would get my hopes up a ton though for a much improved team. And I am not sure why they would all of a sudden start making good free agent moves?
by Humbled Fan on Sep 15, 2025 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Never said good free agent moves...
just ones that will improve the team. as you said yourself they suck. It won’t take much to improve them. Taking on another Iwamura wouldn’t be a bad idea. They are going to hit on one of those guys eventually.
Also, I am not entirely hopeful for the future. I am not expecting us to compete for a division without some major improvements(Rendon would help). I could see us ending the losing streak though and for me that is enough right now.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Take it from a Reds fan,
.500 baseball looks awfully good when you’re losing like this. And yeah, good player development and some solid, seemingly unspectacular trades can make you competitive. If CIN can do it, PIT can.
by blackoutyears on Sep 16, 2025 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Among recent 2B who have sort of come out of nowhere, is he in any way comparable to Martin Prado or Dan Uggla?
sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew
by alexwithclass on Sep 15, 2025 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
More Uggla than Prado...
but he is not that comparable to either. Uggla has more power, but Walker should make more contact. Prado is elite in terms of making contact. Walker is probably more athletic than both though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
From seeing him play, he’s not a Ronny Cedeno or Jose Lopez hack-at-everything hitter. Will he improve at the plate? I’d say he will.
by Adam Reynolds on Sep 15, 2025 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
Pirate fan
Offense: I agree with what seems to be the consensus here already - he’s not a true talent .300 hitter, but he seems to have genuinely improved as a hitter in the last year and seems to have a knack for squaring up the ball. I could see him being a consistent .275-.290 hitter. He’s not a hacker, as Adam Reynolds says, but he is very aggressive, so my guess is that he’s never going to walk much more than 6-7% of the time. The power has always been legitimate (solidly above average). .280/.325/.450 seems like a decent bet for him going forward.
Defense: I side with those who think he looks pretty terrible at 2B. As Vlad noted, he does not have much range. If, as others suggest, he improves with repetition, I think it will mean becoming a tolerably below-average 2B rather than average or better. I agree with Vlad that he’d probably work out better at 3B. I’ve been advocating moving Alvarez to 1B and Walker to 3B for next year, but I guess the chance that Walker becomes tolerable at 2B warrants seeing him there for another year.
Overall, he looks to me like a very solid player, but not an All-Star type.
by epoc on Sep 15, 2025 2:22 PM EDT reply actions
I like him to have a solid career...
I could see him as a .270/.330/.450 type 2B….Not terrible but not a world beater….he’s a really good athlete with some baseball skill.
by SenorGato on Sep 15, 2025 5:20 PM EDT reply actions
I don't know
I see him as a type of player on a Mike Lansing—>Mark Grudzielanek—>Mark Loretta spectrum. Good, not great….a solid player.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 15, 2025 6:07 PM EDT reply actions
good not great
sounds right, but weren’t all those players pretty good on defense? specifically Grudzielanek?
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Sep 15, 2025 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Walker should have a better bat...
and he is probably more athletic than all three. I know I have mentioned it many times, but just watch a few games and you will be suprised by it. He is no Andrew McCutchen, but he is not as far off as many think.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 15, 2025 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen him play a bit
He’s all right. He has the tools to be average or maybe a little below, and yes, I think he will improve. The question is more how much he will improve. Average defense at second base would probably be his ceiling from what I’ve seen. His lateral agility isn’t as good as you’re making it sound, though.
Still, if he can keep up offensive production around .800 OPS with even -5 run defense at second base, that’s a nice player.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Sep 15, 2025 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
i believe you that he is athletic
but it takes a lot more than that to be good defensively.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Sep 15, 2025 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Believe me I know...
but someone who is more athletic has a better chance at improving because they are likely to be able to do more things. I am not saying he will be a gold glover. He has the athleticisim to be, but he needs much more work at the position. Experience is what he needs the most. That and better coaching.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
by joegonzo on Sep 16, 2025 7:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I just don't see his bat
As being great. I think a .850 OPS is his absolute peak, and he will settle closer to the .790-.800 area. But I could be wrong. And let’s face it, any young player who give the Pirates some hope is better than the past 20 years or so.
by cookiedabookie on Sep 16, 2025 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
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