but the chances of a .250 hitter going 0 for 29 in the first 29 at bats of his career are on the order of .02%. A more reasonable assumption is that his “real” ability level is considerably below .250 at the moment. I wouldn’t predict his career off of what he has done so far, but unless something changes in a big hurry, it would be reasonable to conclude that he needs at least another half season in AAA.

Its not just the initial struggles, but the combination of the scouting reports saying he had holes in his swing that would be exploited by major league pitching along with the 40% K rate in his 27 AB so far. I’m not to the point where I’m going to write him off or anything, but I’m even more convinced now that contact is going to be a huge problem for him at the ML level going forward.

But Carter has always struggled somewhat right after a promotion. Here’s a look at his first 20-30 AB’s after other promotions.

2006 A: 4 for his first 30, a double, and 11 K’s. He was demoted to Rookie ball after that, where he did well, even from the beginning.
2007 A: Promoted to A (again) to start the year, and went 0 for his first 24. Then turned it on after that.
2008 A+: Promoted to A+, started out 5 for his first 30, no extra base hits and 10 K’s and struggled for a while after. Ended up mashing at Stockton, though.
2008 AA: Went 6 for his first 29 with 13 K’s, 2 doubles. Ended up being his best year of his career so far.
2008 AAA: Promoted towards the end of the season, went 9-30 with 3 HR’s, better K ratio but no walks. Best transition of his career.

I think that Carter just needs more time to adjust. At other stops in his career, he’s stalled immediately following a promotion like he is now. There are other possible factors weighing him down as well, such as the pressure of being in the bigs or the way the A’s have jerked him around.

Sample size is too small, but that doesn’t mean that he wont still struggle to succeed. I just never bought him as a top/elite prospect…we will see.

you could have a similar poll about Josh Bell, those results might be different though.

sample size is way too small, but it is obviously a little unnerving. I think the kid is a bit jittery starting out. Once he has time to get used to the higher level of competition, he always seems to make the necessary adjustments.

he is what he is. A guy with his skillset is likely to take a little while to adjust when he starts facing pitchers he’s never seen before, as travdog demonstrated above. I think given the PT next year, he could mash.

but I do think he should be working out more than usual this offseason.

but historically bad or good performances, even in what might otherwise be a fairly small sample can be meaningful when they are at extremes, which is why, for example, getting just six out of six numbers right in a lottery is so improbable and why many argued at the time, correctly I believe, that Clemens’ 20 strikeout performance early in his first full season was a very positive omen .

Carter’s performance is already into historic territory as his 29 at bats without a hit is tied for the fourth longest streak of hitless at bats to start a career in major league history going back to 1920, behind only Vic Harris, Lou Camilli and Randy Moore, and tied with Len Boehmer. Inc

If struggling when players reached a new level was something that happened to most players, then this would have happened a lot more than 3 or 4 times.

a .233-.255 with 30-40 HR potential and loads of walks and strikeouts type of hitter…basically Jack Cust.
he could be better than that, of course. and 30 ABs is never enough to judge a player by his value. many guys like that never get chances to play again (Roberto Petagine, anyone?)

a 33 OPS isn’t good??

I think the sample is too small to be definitive, but I also have my doubts that he’ll be that productive of a hitter.

chris carter gets a hit to rise his ba up to 0.029