Clayton Kershaw Community Projection Results

by John Sickels on Mar 4, 2026 2:23 PM EST Comment 17 comments

We had 26 entries and a lot of interesting debate in the Clayton Kershaw Community Projection project. Most of the projections were very optimistic; some overly so in my view, especially in the H/IP department where there were some entries that looked weird to me. Nevertheless, I decided to tally the results as-is just to see what happens. The results:

32 games, 31 starts, 1 complete game, 194.2 innings pitched, 78 runs, 71 earned, 3.28 ERA, 203/86 K/BB, 150 hits, 12 homers allowed.   9.38 K/9, 3.98 BB/9, 6.93 H/9.

Comparing to other projection systems

Community               3.28 ERA     9.38 K/9   3.98 BB/9   6.93 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 194.2 IP
Bill James                3.25 ERA     9.40 K/9    4.55 BB/9   7.00 H/9, 0.55 HR/9, 180 IP
CHONE                     3.58 ERA    9.48 K/9    4.65 BB/9   7.69 H/9, 0.72 HR/9, 151 IP
Marcel                        3.31 ERA    9.12 K/9    4.18 BB/9   7.26 H/9, 0.64 HR/9, 155 IP
Fangraphs Fans     3.26 ERA    9.61 K/9     4.08 BB/9   8.20 H/9, 0.66 HR/9, 192 IP

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Comments

pretty close to bill james cepting the BB/9

which I don’t think is weird to project that a 22-year-old kid will control his pitches better. as someone said in the projection thread, he doesn’t have bad command, and if he learns to take a bit off, and occasionally pitch a bit more to contact, then his BB/9 will improve.

by daveh33 on Mar 4, 2026 2:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I know some will give me crap

But that is why the comparisons to Sandy are so common. They are similar pitches with similar problems at a young age, throw with the same hand and are in the same organization…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 4, 2026 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm not giving you crap, but I've been freely drinking the CK kool-aid for a few years now

by daveh33 on Mar 4, 2026 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't meaning you

I was saying that I expected someone to respond to my post and have a pissing fit because I used kershaw’s name in the same sentence as Koufax…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 5, 2026 9:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Chone and Marcel think he throws 150 innings?

Are they stupid? He has thrown more for each of the last two, why would he regress?

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 4, 2026 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Projection systems

Only Bill James constantly projects full-time production. The others (CHONE, PECOTA, Zips, Marcel, etc.) all factor in playing time with injuries, ineffectiveness, etc. factored in.

I would bet on the “over 150” for innings for Kershaw in 2010 myself.

by guru4u on Mar 4, 2026 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can see no way how they expect him to be so bad that he only throws 150 innings when he has thrown ~170 innings the last 2 years and flat out dominated the league last season…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 5, 2026 9:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

It has nothing to do with being bad

It has everything to do with the chance of injury. They’re taking the chance he suffers a season ending injury, minor injuries, and whatever kind of injuries with the chance he pitches a full season and averaging it all out to however many IP they are projecting.

by oplaid on Mar 5, 2026 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea, I understand this

Im just saying that he was hurt last year(slightly separate right shoulder in Sept while shagging flyballs) for a few weeks and still threw over 170 innings.

my reply was more about the possibility that he is bad enough to get sent down, which, IMO, has about a 3% chance of happening.. and it’s only that high simply because anything can happen in sports

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 5, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ZIPs

3.06 ERA 175K 84BB 139H in 176.2 IP

You should add ZIPs as well to these.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Mar 4, 2026 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

WTF

Apparently all these projection systems are as terrible as all the Kershaw backers on this site. I don’t see why anyone would think that he isn’t going to get killed this year. When his BABIP, HR, and strand rates all move towards the league average he’ll be lucky to have an ERA under 5.00. The math doesn’t lie people, time to get on board. Kershaw = Average At Best He’ll be lucky to have a lefty version of AJ Burnetts career

"This has got to hurt"

by Da.aron on Mar 4, 2026 11:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Even if you're trolling

You are seriously ignorant and should really not talk.

by Ivdown on Mar 5, 2026 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe I was a little hard

He was extremely lucky last year and if he has average luck I suppose he could post an ERA of around 4.00. If he has an unlucky year, look out, it could get ugly. If he gets off to an unlucky start, I could see him getting sent back down to AAA to save his confidence and maybe get him to throw some strikes. Maybe then he could be ready for a stretch run. I like the Burnett comp, both have great stuff and are basically two pitch pitchers with control problems. They both have very similar true performances if you look past the first layer of numbers, which are the least important

"This has got to hurt"

by Da.aron on Mar 5, 2026 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm comparing

Kershaw’s 09 season to Burnetts 02. It was the first time both pitched full seasons in the majors. Its all there, the mid nineties heat, the great curve, K’s, BB’s, HR rate. Lets take a look.

Kershaw Burnett
2.79 ERA 3.30
9.74 K/9 8.94
4.79 BB/9 3.96
2.03 K/BB 2.26
.37 HR/9 .57
.274 BABIP .274
77.5 LOB% 71.4
3.08 FIP 3.19
3.90 xFIP 3.75
4.1 HR/FB% 6.1
30 wFB 32.5
7.4 wCB 7.2
83.3 zCONT% 80.3
76.7 CONT% 71.8
50.9 ZONE% 51.9
55.6 F-STK% 56.4
4.2 WAR 4.6
They profile statistically and stuff wise as very similar pitchers. Granted, Kershaw is younger and a lefty, but statistically at approximately the same point in their careers they are about as close as it can get. I dare anyone to find a better second year statistical comp for Kershaw. This serves as a warning for anyone overly optimistic about Kershaw, regression and injury are real concerns.

"This has got to hurt"

by Da.aron on Mar 5, 2026 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=512&position=P A.J. Burnett
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2036&position=P Clayton Kershaw

"This has got to hurt"

by Da.aron on Mar 5, 2026 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your Stats Comparison Is Idiotic...

…precisely because Kershaw and Burnett were FOUR whole years apart “at the same point in their careers.” You are defining career as major league career. Career should be defined as PROFESSIONAL career. Kershaw and Burnett both turned pro at 18. At age 21 Kershaw was one of the most effective pitchers in MLB. At that age Burnett had yet to even sniff high A. He spent the season in low A, four entire levels below Kershaw. Their respective age 21 seasons represent the “same point in their careers.”

by CanuckDodger on Mar 5, 2026 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And

You just happen to leave out the slider that he developed mid season that is already above average. And the fact the he throws 3 plus plus pitches from the EXACT same spot(release point) and the all look the same out of hit hand. One goes 95 and no one has hit it since he was in the 6th grade, one has a massive horizontal break at 85(not sure about exact velocity) and the final drops so much that the legendary Vin Scully deemed it public enemy #1 and called it one of the best he had EVER seen. Oh and he was 21.

And I’ll give you some advice, if you normalize most players stats, they will suck. That’s the Point though. Kershaw had the 2nd best fastball in the league last year that was simply unhittable. If you pretend that it is just average, then yea, he would suck. But he also wouldn’t be being compared to HOF pitchers.

This is the 1st post i’ve seen from you and I lost a lot of respect already. It’s ok to not like a guy, but when every stat someone pulls out backs him up, you just look naive…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 5, 2026 9:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

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