Community Projection: Clayton Kershaw

31
31
1
179
62
60
3.02
89
191
136
9

Freude, schoener Goetterfunken,
Tochter aus Elysium,
Wir betreten feuertrunken,
Himmlische dein Heiligtum.

by t ball on Feb 28, 2026 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games - 32
Games Started - 31
Complete Games - 2
Innings - 185
Runs allowed - 80
Earned runs allowed - 75
ERA (make sure math is right) - 3.65
Walks allowed - 87
Strikeouts - 183
Hits allowed - 145
Home runs allowed - 11

by cr1578 on Feb 28, 2026 3:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

32 G
32 GS
2 CG
186 IP
95 R
82 ER
3.97 ERA
93 BB
190 K
162 H
15 HR

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Stud

30G
30GS
1CG
210 IP
86 R
71 ER
3.04 ERA
80 BB
230 K
173 H
10 HR

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Feb 28, 2026 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wait

33g
32GS

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Feb 28, 2026 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be hot if he did that

5 MORE YEARS OF FELIX!

by Marinerfanjake on Feb 28, 2026 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's mine

Games - 33
Games Started - 33
Complete Games - 1
Innings - 198
Runs allowed - 73
Earned runs allowed - 68
ERA (make sure math is right) - 3.09
Walks allowed - 88
Strikeouts - 193
Hits allowed - 162
Home runs allowed - 16

by Summa Slugga on Feb 28, 2026 4:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

some of these are grossly optimistic

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

For a guy who was basically a slightly better and much luckier Jonathan Sanchez they do seem a bit insane. His HR/FB will regress quite a bit next season, even if he improves his control… and there’s no guarantee he improves it. Not that he’ll be a bad pitcher if he doesn’t, but expecting a low 3’s ERA is a bit much.

by oplaid on Feb 28, 2026 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Third Full Season

Some people seem to think he’s a 10 year vet that he won’t improve anymore.

Hey guys, I run a music blog. alternative, powerpop, punk, electronica, screamo, etc etc, check it out. http://muzikdizcovery.blogspot.com/ artist interviews and many other stuff. free cookies! (not really, but still) :D

by cwhitman412 on Feb 28, 2026 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some people think he’s an ace?

by packimop on Feb 28, 2026 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i do

by daveh33 on Feb 28, 2026 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

Don’t see why he can’t improve his control. Still very young.

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Feb 28, 2026 7:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lol. Yeah, it’s just too bad Kershaw had the best fastball in the majors last year and one of the top curve balls in the league, and is in the middle of developing a very nice slider. Their numbers might have been similar, but their skills are most definitely not.

It’s not a stretch by any means to say that he could pitch 190 innings with 200 strikeouts, 90-95 walks, 180 hits allowed, and a 3.30-3.60 ERA.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

longball

don’t see sammy giving up that hard hit ball like Jonathan.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Feb 28, 2026 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How can this be a serious discussion?

2009 FIP:
Sanchez: 4.17
Kershaw: 3.08

As far as the luck factor goes, Sanchez had a .290 BABIP and Kershaw had a .274. Someone is going to have to sell me on the idea that Kershaw was significantly more fortunate than Sanchez.

by prosellis on Feb 28, 2026 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure they'd point you to xFIP

Kershaw: 3.90
Sanchez: 4.19

I don’t buy it as all that great of a stat because its always going to underrate guys who can limit HR/FB, but no one is going to maintain a HR/FB of 4.1% long term so Kershaw is certainly due for some regression in that category.

by nixa37 on Mar 1, 2026 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with you on xFIP. I fully expect Kershaw to regress some, but not to the point where a Sanchez comparison will be significantly more valid.

by prosellis on Mar 1, 2026 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree fully. There are some guys who are good at not allowing homeruns, and Xfip penalizes them so badly. I’ll take FIP long before XFIP.

by Ivdown on Mar 1, 2026 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

barely 1 year of data does not prove he is "good" at not allowing home runs

it’s fine. happens every year to a few pitchers and the fans of said team always say it’s sustainable. never is.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 1, 2026 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, forget the other data posted in here earlier by someone else. That is just garbage, right?

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what data?

and yeah, it probably is garbage given the sample size.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 2, 2026 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re a tool.

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

insults

mark of a true champ

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 2, 2026 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How is over 200 minor league innings and over 200 major league innings a garbage sample size? Because you have no idea what you are actually talking about, thats why

by Ivdown on Mar 3, 2026 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

have you seen his new slider?

he introduced it in his last 10 or so outing and it was a GREAT pitch… he will defintly improve..

by matthewmafa on Feb 28, 2026 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you make me smile with every post you make

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll bet you think Buchholz is going to come out and win a Cy Young. If Kershaw was a Red Sock you’d be slotting him for the Hall of Fame right now.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, see, that's just cute

It’s pretty well-documented here that I’m as unbiased a fan as there are here.

But sure, change the conversation!

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t know who you are or care one bit. Kershaw has been dominating in every level he has played, including the MLB. He had the lowest hits per 9 innings in all of baseball in 2009, had over 9 ks per 9 inning, even had 4.8 walks per 9 innings and still was pretty damn dominant. He had 2 pitches that were at the top of the league last season and he’s working on another that was really good to end the season.

But no, compare him to Jonathan Sanchez because they had similar K and BB numbers, irregardless how much better one is than the other in actual skill and when one has a much higher ceiling.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He deserves to be compared to Sanchez because they’re both dominant lefties with massive control problems. You can’t just write off a 4.8 BB/9 by saying “shuddup he’s good!!!!!” That’s a pretty massive issue. You also probably shouldn’t just write Sanchez off. He can be incredibly dominant when, like Kershaw, he can control his stuff. And Sanchez, by the way, has better strikeout stuff to this point than Kershaw.

The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.

by boonitez on Feb 28, 2026 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can write off a 4.8 BB/9 by saying

“shuddup he’s 21 years old!!!”

Seriously, do people forget how old Kershaw is?

Walks are a big problem for him, yes. But you can’t expect anyone, let alone a flame-throwing lefty, to come up at the age of 20 and have perfect command.

If Kershaw never harnesses his stuff and continues to put up 4.8 BB/9, he’s still going to be better than Sanchez. He’s 7 years younger than Sanchez, and he’s already a better pitcher.

by walnut falcons on Feb 28, 2026 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I remember another

“flame-throwing lefty” with control problems early on in his career that ended up to pretty well for himself…lets see, what was his name…Randy…Randy Lonson?

by oakballnack on Mar 2, 2026 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, because i just said to shut up and used no stats or backing. Like it was posted, Kershaw had a full point better in FIP than Sanchez, I’m guessing you think that doesn’t matter at all? Are you telling me that Sanchez has looked as good or better than Kershaw? I guess that’s why Kershaw is so highly regarded while Sanchez has been in trade rumors for 2 years being talked about being traded for mid level offensive players, while Kershaw was being talked about straight up for guys like Halladay. Of course all of that stuff is subjective to GMs, but it means something.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe if he could hit the strike zone his hits per 9 wouldnt be sooooo good.

by packimop on Mar 1, 2026 10:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why dont you think kershaw will be better then last year?

besides the regular… he was lucky last year..

by matthewmafa on Feb 28, 2026 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Was this called for?

What is up with the cheap shot?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Feb 28, 2026 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn’t much of a cheap shot, unless you think me saying if he was a Red Sock then this Red Sock fan would think he is tremendous upsets you for some odd reason. It wasn’t malicious in any way.

by Ivdown on Mar 1, 2026 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he was talking about my shot at matthewmafa

Which was completely warranted, given how consistently hilarious his posts are

by RedSoxFaithful on Mar 1, 2026 7:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That pitch was absolutely sick

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He introduced it way before you imply

He was clearly throwing the pitch by his first start in June, which means he started using the pitch with 20 starts left in the season. Here’s the proof.

It was a very good pitch and I agree he will probably be better with it this year than last, but this is the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen someone say he started throwing it much later in the season than he did.

by nixa37 on Feb 28, 2026 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're kidding, right?

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 28, 2026 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that was for

for Sox fan

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Feb 28, 2026 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey, guys!

Let’s calm down a bit. I never said I didn’t like Kershaw. Look at my projection; I see him having a pretty good, sub-4 ERA year. And I really understand why he’s valuable. Nobody in their right minds would argue that he doesn’t have shutdown stuff.

The problem is, and has always been, his control. You look at some of these projections… He’s a 21/22 year old coming off of his first full-season, in which he had improbable success despite a 4.79 BB/9. Obviously, as we’re all aware, the success came largely because of a .198 opposing batting average and a .274 BABIP.

Here’s my problem. A third of the projections here is projecting a sub-3 ERA. Another third is projecting a 3.00-3.10 ERA. Meanwhile, they’re not projecting significant improvement in BB/9. So, yeah, for a person to say that Kershaw is going to further improve already improbable success, despite marginal improvements in control… Yeah, that’s grossly optimistic.

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Part 2

And that doesn’t even factor in Kershaw’s ridiculously lucky HR/9 rate last year. Most projections here are projecting him to sustain his ERA despite also projecting that his HR/9 rate will more than double, in some cases.

It’s just silly, is all.

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 10:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Part 3

And these last two projections are saying that he’ll give up about 10 fewer hits this season than last, in about 30 more innings.

HAVE FUN WITH THAT?

but seriously guys, 110 hits? sweet jesus

The last two projected WHIPs are 0.92 and 0.87. But you’re right, that’s totally reasonable.

by RedSoxFaithful on Feb 28, 2026 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

totally agree

i think people are going to be disappointed if they expect a cy young type season. he’s still got some improving to do.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Feb 28, 2026 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this

+1

by cr1578 on Mar 1, 2026 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

im not gonna go through and "+1" every post you've made

but yeah, this kershaw business is a bit optimistic.

by cr1578 on Mar 1, 2026 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

~~a bit optimistic~~ ridiculously optimistic.

by cr1578 on Mar 1, 2026 1:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some of those (tripons was kinda crazy) were outlandish, but most were realistic.

by Ivdown on Mar 1, 2026 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

his “lucky” HR ratio is due to the fact that not much good wood being placed on his pitches. Think it might be tied into the fact that he gives up 6.26 Hits per 9.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Mar 1, 2026 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No one is actually as good as Kershaw appeared to be last year

He could very well be the type of guy who can hold opponents to a HR/FB rate of 7% or 8%, but no one maintains a ratio of about 4% for an extended period of time.

by nixa37 on Mar 1, 2026 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no one has done it yet

That doesnt mean it cant be done. Kershaw has 3 plus plus pitches that come from the exact same motion, same release point and look the same out of his hand. One has a tail action, one drops 14 inches and one bears in on the hitter. All 3 start the same, but produce totally different results. Thus, the reason for so many pop ups and weak grounders.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so now you're projecting kershaw to do something that you admit nobody has ever done before

this is getting ridiculous

by RedSoxFaithful on Mar 1, 2026 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im not saying he is going to do it

Im just saying is the lack of HRs werent all that amazing given the amount of weak contact he produces…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and all 3 miss the strike zone

by packimop on Mar 1, 2026 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Given his K/9 and H/9, I think he is OK

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, he must not ever get anyone looking. All his pitches must be out of the strikezone.

Jesus who let the all-or-nothings in here.

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i obviously don’t think that he misses the strike zone ALL the time. can’t take sarcastic remarks?

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah it pretty much does

Its not just the fact that no one has done it yet, its the fact that its ~50% better than what any modern pitcher has produced over an extended.

I remember you mlbtraderumors and you’re a good guy and everything, but you have to realize that you show your self to be a huge dodgers homer. How many pitchers in the Dodgers system did you say have ace potential? If I remember correctly it was at least 5 or 6. In this thread you’ve now compared Kershaw to Ryan and Koufax and now you’re acting like its perfectly reasonable to expect him to be way better at something that any pitcher in the modern game. Its getting a little insane man.

by nixa37 on Mar 2, 2026 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahh

Potential is different from what you will become. Yes, a pitcher can have potential. And if you remember, I consistenly said that out of those 5 or 6, if two of them reach their potential, the Dodgers will be excited.

Once again, I used Koufax and Ryan because they are the two most known examples of pitchers succeeding even with bad control at a young age. I did not say that Kershaw is Koufax or Ryan.

With the Hrs, once again, Im saying that IF someone will have that low of a HR rate, Kershaw COULD be that guy. His stuff is that good and is that hard to square up.. then add in the division we play in, and there is a POSSIBILITY he can keep it that low

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 2, 2026 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Dodgers have 1 minor league pitcher at the moment who could be considered to have ace potential. That is Chris Withrow, and chances are he will just be a very strong 2 pitcher (I’ve seen comps to Josh Beckett, i’d be ecstatic if anything close to that happened).

E. Martin is more of a 2-3 pitcher, same with Elbert, Mcdonald, and Gould. Those are also, most likely, their ceilings. A. Miller seems like he’d be a really nice 3 pitcher eventually, but again, possibly his ceiling. Webster could be a stud late round find in the draft of 08, but I don’t see anything higher than a 3 or 4 pitcher, 2 if he’s lucky.

The thing about the Dodgers organization is that they have tons and ton’s of pitching depth in the 2-5 spots in the rotation for the future, but only 1 or MAYBE 2 ace types as it stands out after Kershaw and Billingsley (say what you will, he still has very good potential to be more than a 2 pitcher).

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Withrow has ace potential. I think everyone agrees on that.

E. Martin has more potential than Withrow. He has a great fastball, with a plus curve, at a young age. The question is if he develops a change. If he does, the skys the limit. If not, he is a reliever. High ceiling, but low floor.

Elbert has #2 potential, IMO. He could become an ace, but it seems like it wont happen. He does have the stuff though. A RFB, slider and change. He used to have a curve as well, but Im not sure where it is in development. It was a good pitch pre surgery, but I dont know about post surgery.

No one thinks that Jmac has ace potential. MOR guy.

Miller, I am really excited about. He is a lefty who is gaining velocity and looked great in his brief year after the draft. He has TOR potential

Webster interests me, but I cant talk about potential because he is such an unknown.

Gould is another who was a steal for the draft. He had 1st round potential and Logan White said he had the best curve in the draft. With projection left in his body, he is very interesting… With added velocity, the sky is the limit.

After Webster, there is one other guy Im really intrigued with. Nathan Eovaldi. A guy who had his velocity fluctuate last year based on when he came in to relieve or start(even when he knew he’d throw the same number of innings either way) and a curveball that is somewhat of an enigma. He throws it extremley slow, and if he can add some additional break to the pitch, it will be a great compliment. He has a changeup, but barely uses it. Now, Eovaldi had TJS in HS, so the risk is there and that is why the Dodgers are taking it slow with him. Similar to Martin, he has TOR potential, but could also end up as a good setup man… Too young to know..

When talking about POTENTIAL with pitchers, the Dodgers have some of the best depth. Will they all reach it, no one knows. But they have the potential to have a very special, homegrown rotation in a few years..

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 2, 2026 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He definitely won’t walk LESS than he did in 2009 in 30+ more innings. That is absolutely unreasonable.

BUT, a lot of these are projecting a significant improvement in BB/9. He walked 91 batters in 171 innings last year. Most people are projecting him to sit around 80-90 in 200+ innings. That is a significant improvement.

by walnut falcons on Feb 28, 2026 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Games – 33
Games Started – 31
Complete Games – 1
Innings – 192
Runs allowed – 73
Earned runs allowed – 63
ERA (make sure math is right) – 2.95
Walks allowed – 78
Strikeouts – 218
Hits allowed – 144
Home runs allowed – 9

by matthewmafa on Feb 28, 2026 4:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I would allow for about 10 less ks and 12-15 more walks, with a few more homeruns and about 5-8 more runs scored at the least.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Games—32
Games Started—32
Complete Games—0
Innings—202
Runs allowed—70
Earned runs allowed—67
ERA (make sure math is right)—2.99
Walks allowed—88
Strikeouts—224
Hits allowed—157
Home runs allowed—11

by silverwidow on Feb 28, 2026 6:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sammy "Koufax pupil" Kershaw

Games
Games Started
Complete Games
Innings 184.1
Runs allowed 61
Earned runs allowed 52
ERA (make sure math is right) 2.54
Walks allowed 73
Strikeouts 219
Hits allowed 131
Home runs allowed 11

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."

by fourfingerwoo on Feb 28, 2026 6:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.

Games - 33
Games Started - 33
Complete Games - 1
Innings - 198
Runs allowed - 76
Earned runs allowed - 69
ERA (make sure math is right) - 3.14
Walks allowed - 85
Strikeouts - 207
Hits allowed - 135
Home runs allowed - 11

by daveh33 on Feb 28, 2026 6:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like also predicting wins/losses because it still is important

Games – 33
Games Started – 32
Complete Games – 0
Innings – 202
Runs allowed – 88
Earned runs allowed – 79
ERA (make sure math is right) – 3.52
Walks allowed – 89
Strikeouts – 213
Hits allowed – 162 (WHIP 1.24)
Home runs allowed – 13

Record 13-10

by dlpme77 on Feb 28, 2026 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games: 33 
Games Started: 33 
Complete Games: 2
 Innings: 217 
Runs allowed: 81
 Earned runs allowed: 74
 ERA (make sure math is right): 3.07 
Walks allowed: 106 
Strikeouts: 227 
Hits allowed: 171 
Home runs allowed: 14

by raygie on Feb 28, 2026 7:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Damn, 106 walks allowed would be crazy. If he can still have that season I would be perfectly fine with it, though.

by Ivdown on Feb 28, 2026 7:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projection

Games 31
Games Started 31
Complete Games 2
Innings 187
Runs allowed 80
Earned runs allowed 69
ERA 3.30
Walks allowed 85
Strikeouts 195
Hits allowed 155 (1.28 WHIP)
Home runs allowed 16

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Feb 28, 2026 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games - 32
Games Started - 32
Complete Games - 1
Innings - 202
Runs allowed -68
Earned runs allowed - 65
ERA (make sure math is right) - 2.89
Walks allowed - 75
Strikeouts - 210
Hits allowed - 110
Home runs allowed - 5

by Tripon on Feb 28, 2026 8:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you realized that line is absurd

it’s a 2.45 FIP.

Last year, two starting pitchers posted better than a 2.45 FIP, the two Cy Young winners Zach Greinke and Tim Lincecum. The year before, 0 starting pitchers posted better than a 2.45 FIP

by cr1578 on Mar 1, 2026 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

BABIP at .274 for 2009 was already skewing the numbers favorably for him, I can’t see him doing even better in 2010 without a certain regression to the mean. Especially not a 4,5 H/9 compenent, along with a 0.22 HR/9.

You also have to take into consideration that he’ll see more action against better opponents as he is climbing the rotation ladder while others are taking a step back (Billingsley).

Basically, I don’t believe he can improve on all peripherals that much overall this year across the board while taking on 30+ innings for an extra couple of starts.

by St. Baztadd on Mar 1, 2026 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Games—33
Games Started—33
Complete Games—2
Innings—213.3
Runs allowed— 73
Earned runs allowed — 68
ERA (make sure math is right) — 2.88
Walks allowed — 73
Strikeouts -232
Hits allowed - 112
Home runs allowed - 16

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis

by Terry Ryan Jr on Feb 28, 2026 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games: 32 
Games Started: 32
Complete Games: 1
 Innings: 195
Runs allowed: 85
 Earned runs allowed: 80
 ERA (make sure math is right): 3.69
Walks allowed: 98 
Strikeouts: 205
Hits allowed: 179 
Home runs allowed: 18

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Feb 28, 2026 10:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games: 31
Games Started: 31
Complete Games: 0
 Innings: 185
Runs allowed: 85
 Earned runs allowed: 80
 ERA : 3.89
Walks allowed: 75 
Strikeouts: 173
Hits allowed: 180
Home runs allowed: 13
WHIP: 1.37

by daman316 on Feb 28, 2026 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

At least a couple of you are projecting Kershaw to have the greatest Hits per 9 IP of ALL-TIME.

Even one of his biggest fans like myself will say that’s nuts.

by silverwidow on Feb 28, 2026 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

tripon and jerry ryan

LOL! 112 and 110 in over 200 innings!!!

by matthewmafa on Feb 28, 2026 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Now they’ve turned us against ourselves!

by prosellis on Feb 28, 2026 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont understand why many expect his ERA to have a run added

It’s not a coincidence that his H/9 and HR/9 were minuscule… he has some of the most deceptive stuff in the majors.

Here is a story that shows just how special Kershaw’s year was a 21 year old.

http://www.truebluela.com/2010/2/17/1313956/2010/2/17/1313956/clayton-kershaw-the-object-of-our

In the story, some key stats were he had the 4th highest K/9 for any 21 year old. He also had the 2nd lowest H/9 for anyone at 21 or younger… EVER. Behind just Vida Blue. That isnt a miracle, he has unhittable stuff.

Regarding the walks, I want to throw a couple things out there… There was an amazing, hall of fame pitcher, who as a 21 year old had a 6.2 H/9, 8.9 K/9, and a 5.0 BB/9. The name? Nolan Ryan.

Or another hall of famer, at age 21. 7.2 H/9, 10.5 K/9, and 4.4 BB/9. His name? Clayton Kershaw’s mentor, Sandy Koufax.

Two Hall Of Famers who had bad control as a 21 year old. Here is Kershaw’s numbers at the same age… 6.26 H/9, 9.74 K/9, 4.8 BB/9..

To the people comparing him to Sanchez.. are you serious? To compare a 21 year old and a 26 year old is insane. A 21 has 5 additional years to improve his control, a 26 year old should be light years ahead of him if the talent level is similar.

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 28, 2026 11:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and sanchez throws like 91 to 92 mph

kershaws up in the 94 to 95s…

by matthewmafa on Feb 28, 2026 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they really arent all that similar

after you get past the control and the fact they throw with the same hand…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 12:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“To the people comparing him to Sanchez.. are you serious? To compare a 21 year old and a 26 year old is insane”

Uh, pot meet kettle maybe? you just compared him to two of the greatest of all time. probably more insane.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Mar 1, 2026 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I never said he will ever be what they were

I was pointing out bad control doesn’t make you destined to have a horrible career, or a bad year the next season, as many are claiming he will(by the standards he has posted thus far in his career). They are two of the most prominent examples of bad control as a young pitcher and they became legends. Once again, not saying that Kershaw is guaranteed to become what Ryan and Koufax were, it was just the most prominent example..

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You implied it

Kershaw’s great. He’s promising. I like him a lot.

To compare him to a guy who ended up having arguably the single best pitching peak of all time (it’s either him or Pedro) is absolutely batshit crazy. I remember having this argument every time people compared Dee Gordon or some other powerless SS to Jimmy Rollins. Just because EliteProX had a magical breakout does not mean that every other marginally similar prospect or player will also have that breakout.

Again, I like Kershaw a lot. But he is not Sandy Koufax, and there is a negative chance of him turning in the same type of peak that Koufax had, no matter how similar their early careers are looking.

by RedSoxFaithful on Mar 1, 2026 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree with everything except the comment on pitching peak

Seriously, when did people decide to forget about Maddux’s insane run from 92 to 98. I know Pedro’s ERA+ was a little prettier, but Maddux threw more innings per season in his peak despite the fact that two of those seasons were cut short by the strike (and they just so happened to be Maddux’s best seasons).

by nixa37 on Mar 1, 2026 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I love Pedro but people forget how insane Maddux was for that stretch.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Mar 1, 2026 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I always disliked the Dee Gordon/Rollins comparsion.

Rollins doesn’t hit for a high average, or walk in the majors or minors. Gordon’s so far has done both in his short minor league career.

by Tripon on Mar 1, 2026 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it’s ok. we know that it’s wishful thinking because you love the dodgers and they are going down the tubes in the next couple years. kershaw is pretty much all you got.

by packimop on Mar 1, 2026 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you a Giants fan?

You sound really bitter…

by BFDC on Mar 1, 2026 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, did you get hit by a car at Dodger Stadium as a kid or something?

Bitter much?

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i just dislike the dodgers. i think that most (not all) of their fans only care when they’re worth watching, and even then show up in the 3rd and leave in the 7th unless it’s a really good game. and i’m a phillies fan so i was bitter each of the last two years when a lot of “analysts” picked the dodgers in both series.

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that is one sterio type I really hate about the Dodgers

Very few fans do that. People who go to a game to go to a game, maybe, but their actual fans will be there an hour before and will be there until after the team leaves the field.

And if I remember, we were supposed to get our asses kicked in 08 and then in 09 some thought we could beat the Phillies. Anyways, most Dodger fans have stopped listening to ESPN when talking baseball because their ‘analysts’ know nothing about the sport…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 2, 2026 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How about you be a good sport instead of an a**hole who doesn’t know what he’s talking about. How many Dodger games have you ever been to? I’ve been to over 40 in my life, and that is such a bs stereotype. Yes people leave before the 27th out, but you’d be a fool or an idiot to believe every other team is different.

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

every single dodgers game i’ve ever watched (i have MLB TV) at least 1/3 of the fans in the outfield bleachers have left by the end of the 7th unless it’s an extremely good baseball game.

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

40 games!?!?! that’s almost half the games they play at home in a season!

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL. That’s hilarious. Do you think the Dodgers are the Astros or something?

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no but i saw an article that in the near future they will be only spending about 26% of revenues on player salary because of the divorce.

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that was a from a lawyer in a divorce proceeding

siting a plan hatched a couple years ago to woo $ from chinese investors. did you really take that as fact? now just by my moniker you can guess I am a Dodger fan, I have NO love for either side in this ownership battle and frankly I would love to see the team declared community property so that both these Boston imports can get their mitts off my team, but to use anything that comes out in the pleadings of a lawyer in a divorce case is asinine. But even if the pleading were accurate that would equate to 125 million in salary, certainly that will be enough to keep Kershaw, Kemp and Either and bring in a few salary controlled players and the Dodgers will be fine for many years to come.

Not sure what “analysts” you were listening to, but most did not even pick the Dodgers to get out of the division round in either year. My guess the bitterness most come from years of rooting for the Flyers.

by MammothDodger on Mar 2, 2026 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha

that may be true. i wasn’t sure where that number came from I just remember reading it somewhere. thanks for clarification.

by packimop on Mar 2, 2026 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That won’t happen. LA is one of the biggest markets in all of sports, baseball won’t allow them to become penny pinchers in this market.

by Ivdown on Mar 2, 2026 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You do realize

That Ryan never really improved his control (4.67 career BB/9) and Koufax took until his 6th year in the league to get his BB/9 udner the 4.4 per 9 mark. Yeah they were very good pitchers, but in each case the lack of control held them back from reaching their full potential (at least for awhile in Koufax’s case).

by nixa37 on Mar 1, 2026 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan did improve his control.

He went from routinely walking about 6.0 BB/9 in the first 10-12 years of his career to about 3.8 BB/9 for the last 14 years of his career.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Mar 1, 2026 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Guess I could have worder that better

What I was trying to say was that Ryan’s career BB/9 of 4.67 wasn’t really all that much better than the 5.04 he posted as a 21 year old. He did eventually improve, but what you got in terms of BB/9 as a 21 year old was essentially the same as what you got over the course of his career.

by nixa37 on Mar 2, 2026 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

objective sox fan's kershaw projection

im new on these boards guys but i promise you im a die-hard mlb/milb fan and will always give objective, thought-out posts, cuz i think its cool we baseball scholars can convene like ths… so heres mine!:

G: 31
GS: 31
CG: 1
IP: 188
R: 72
ER: 67
ERA: 3.21
BB: 90
K: 195
H: 141
HR: 11

WHIP: 1.23
W/L: 14-8

Arman M.

by Alice in Chains on Mar 1, 2026 5:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

addendum

this would give clayton a 9.34 K/9 and 4.31 BB/9, which i believe will result from his trying to avoid walks by leaving more pitches in the zone (thus the associated decrease in K/9 and increase in hits & HR)… lemme know what you think guys!

Arman M.

by Alice in Chains on Mar 1, 2026 5:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey look you guys there is a voice of reason

by RedSoxFaithful on Mar 1, 2026 9:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is my favorite realistic projection so far.

by Ivdown on Mar 1, 2026 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

G: 30
GS: 30
CG: 1
IP: 184
RA: 84
ER: 78
ERA: 3.82
BB: 88
K: 189
H: 142
HR: 16

WHIP: 1.25

by ThomasG on Mar 1, 2026 8:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games-31
Games Started-31
Complete Games-2
Innings-185 1/3
Runs allowed-81
Earned runs allowed-74
ERA (make sure math is right)-3.59
Walks allowed-88
Strikeouts-183
Hits allowed-152
Home runs allowed-14

by LawBe on Mar 1, 2026 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops,

supposed to be 29 games, 29 starts

by LawBe on Mar 1, 2026 9:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games 32
Games Started 32
Complete Games 0
Innings 188
Runs allowed 77
Earned runs allowed 72
ERA (make sure math is right) 3.45
Walks allowed 92
Strikeouts 201
Hits allowed 145
Home runs allowed 9

"mark kotsay for $1.5 million. or jim thome for $1.5 million.
gosh. i’m going to have to think about this one for a bit." larry

"We're gonna do this f*ucking thing over again cuz I just f*cked it up.....oh, we're live, I didn't know that" Bert Blyleven

by smoooooth on Mar 1, 2026 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games: 30
Games Started: 30
Complete Games: 0
Innings: 180
Runs allowed: 64
Earned runs allowed: 63
ERA (make sure math is right): 3.15
Walks allowed: 86
Strikeouts: 188
Hits allowed: 134
Home runs allowed: 11

by GoldenSpikes24 on Mar 1, 2026 9:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw (with a little help from Koufax)

Games 30
Games Started 30
Complete Games 1
Innings 196.0
Runs allowed 80
Earned runs allowed 71
ERA (make sure math is right) 3.26
Walks allowed 90
Strikeouts 206
Hits allowed 157
Home runs allowed 7

Why Lee

by Ylekiote on Mar 1, 2026 11:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw

Games : 31
Starts : 31
Complete Games : 2
Innings : 198
Runs Allowed : 93
Earned Runs : 84
ERA : 3.82
Walks Allowed : 86
Strikeouts : 202
Hits Allowed : 190
HR’s Allowed : 15

by hrv1978 on Mar 1, 2026 12:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kershaw

Games - 33
Games Started— 33
Complete Games— 1
Innings— 209.0
Runs allowed— 80
Earned runs allowed — 73
ERA (make sure math is right) — 3.14
Walks allowed — 95
Strikeouts - 210
Hits allowed – 157
Home runs allowed – 12

by St. Baztadd on Mar 1, 2026 12:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Games - 32
Games Started - 32
Complete Games - 3
Innings - 202.6
Runs allowed - 77
Earned runs allowed - 70
ERA (make sure math is right) - 3.11
Walks allowed - 85
Strikeouts - 217
Hits allowed - 129
Home runs allowed - 13

by seabass on Mar 1, 2026 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

just one thought....

…..for all the people foreseeing Kershaw throwing one or more complete games — do you foresee him making ridiculous strides forward in terms of command (and/or a change in style/approach), or have you just never really seen him pitch that many games?

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 1, 2026 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i see his command improving

and I think with his new slider, he’s going to get even more swings-and-misses and weakly-hit balls. i am predicting one CG… i don’t see how its outside the realm that he has a few games where he dominates with a low pitch count.

by daveh33 on Mar 1, 2026 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

From what I saw when he got into command trouble he just tried to overthrow the ball and got flustered. If he can get some help with that (Koufax could really help him there, Koufax tried to power the ball in for the first few years of his career till someone finally started telling him he didn’t have to throw it as hard as he could every time) I could definitely see his innings go up, and that would mean more command because he’d be making less pitches.

by Ivdown on Mar 1, 2026 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He doesnt have as bad of command as the numbers say.

I know it sounds strange, but stick with me. Kershaw had games where he would walk 7 guys, and some where he walked 1. It comes with being 21. However, when he has good control, there is no way to stop him. Hell, even with bad control he was unhittable. But on days when he is feeling it, he could easily have a CG… Look in his FL start last season. He had a no-no through 7 innings with only a couple walks. However, as soon as he gave up his 1st hit, a double on a waste pitch high and away that the hitter turned on, he was pulled because he was over 100 pitches. He could have easily finished the game, but to protect his arm and with the pen we have, Torre didnt take the chance. This season, he’ll get a little more leeway and may be allowed to finish a game like that..

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i watched the Florida game....

…..and have seen probably 90+% of the starts in his career.

yes, he was pulled early in terms of pitch-count on occasions. but that’s because he rarely has low-pitch innings. if you were watching games and believe he could have made it any farther than he was pulled, you’re kidding yourself. (which is why Torre’s comments were so hilarious — i don’t think there was a single game he was pulled from prematurely this year, since any extra inning he would have made it through would have relied on SUPREME luck.)

when he’s on, he’s unhittable. but that’s not to his advantage in terms of throwing complete games. if he has to pitch for the strikeout, he’s almost GUARANTEED to throw two or three balls before it happens. that’s just how he pitches — his mechanics aren’t that perfect right now.

let’s say he’s Lincecum — the comparison i think his biggest supporters would be most excited about. Lincecum threw WAY too many pitches in his first year. now, he’s gotten his control a little better. of course, he’s still a little rough around the edges and he’s STILL unhittable. so NOW, he throws complete games — because the Giants allow him to throw 130+-pitch outings. if you foresee Torre allowing Kershaw to go 120+ pitches, i could imagine a CG this next year. but personally, i don’t want that to happen.

again, the biggest concern isn’t whether he walks 7 or walks 1 — it’s that he’s pitching away from contact, and needs a fair number of pitches to do it.

if, like the above two posters, you believe he’s going to change up his style, it seems plausible Kershaw will go from a guy who tired out anywhere from the 5th-7th innings to a guy who MIGHT some day enter the 9th inning with a reasonable-enough pitch count to let him end it. but if you think his control “had good days” and with “mild improvements” from aging will turn him into someone capable of going 9, i think you’re just kidding yourself……or not doing the math right.

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 1, 2026 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe that Kershaw came up trying to strike everyone out

Toward the end of the season he began learning a 2 pitch groundout is as good as a 6 pitch strikeout. When he stops trying to strike everyone out, then he will go further, even with the same control.

I just used the FL game as an example of when he is on, he could go a complete game. Torre was going to let him get the no-no because, quite simply, no one knows when you will get a shot at a no-no. However, as soon as he gave up the double, he was pulled.

I am OK with him having pitch counts. I DO NOT want him going 130 pitches every start. Im just saying that I think he will be able to do that once or twice this season because he is on..

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 1, 2026 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, he pulled him then....

he’d thrown 112 pitches and needed to retire six more hitters…..how on earth do you think he was going to finish this game? and that’s the example of when everything goes right.

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 2, 2026 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If he had the no-no, he was going to finish the game...

What I was trying to say is that it will take an event like that(possible no-no) or him having very few pitches thrown in order for him to get a CG next season. And I do think that eventually he will get one of those days… especially if he continues to not try to strike everyone out like he did at the start of the season…

by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 2, 2026 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

so he would have finished the game if:
a) you didn’t mind him throwing around 140 pitches, and
b) having thrown this many pitches (112 was his season-high) wouldn’t have reduced his effectiveness/chance to get a no-hitter

you’re speaking circularly. yes, he would not have been pulled if he hadn’t given up a hit. but part of throwing a no-hitter is having enough left in the tank to finish a game. i’m asking you how on earth you would expect him to pitch two more full innings given his pitch count.

as for the talk of his “pitching to contact” late……seems mostly like a fantasy. his starts for August/September/October (innings pitched, then pitch count in parenthesis, then Ks/BBs):

4.0 (92) 6/6
7.0 (103) 10/1
4.1 (97) 9/4
3.2 (97) 5/4
6.1 (104) 6/1
7.0 (105) 11/2
6.0 (106) 3/3
4.0 (77) 4/1
6.0 (104) 10/3
6.2 (106) 4/1
4.2 (89) 3/5

The pitch counts are still exceptionally high for the number of innings he pitched. The low strike-out games were just games he pitched POORLY and didn’t last long. His walks are as bad as ever.

It’s a cool vision you have of him. But it’s not really supported by anything. It’d be great if that’s what he becomes, and that’s what I hope he DOES become. But you’re sort of just making it up that he’s done it so far.

It’s not so bad if he DOESN’T figure it out too soon. He’s exceptionally young, and already a great pitcher — even if flawed in how briefly his outings often last. Just try to be realistic about where he’s at right now: One of the LEAST likely “good” pitchers in baseball to be capable of throwing a complete game, because his vary virtues make accomplishing the feat difficult.

by bleedjaxblue on Mar 2, 2026 1:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs